You could tell it was going to be bad right away. The way Dwyane Wade just gave up on the play, it’s not like him. Then to see him on the bench crying, that just wasn’t something I was prepared for. This is Dwyane Wade, one of the toughest dudes in the league, he bounces back from everything, and there is crying on the bench, in so much pain they have to bring a wheelchair out to wheel him to the locker room. Have you ever seen that during an NBA game before, a wheelchair? I’ve seen a stretcher, but think that might have been my first wheelchair. In any case, a separated shoulder is what it looked like and there’s no final word yet, but that seems to the be case. It’s obviously a devastating loss all around – for the Heat, for his fantasy owners, for the NBA and its fans. Even as a Wizards fan who was fairly certain that the Wiz would draw the Heat and get the boot in round 1, I’m majorly bummed about this. Still, we have to check the fantasy consequences, so let’s look at what the Heat got.
Shaquille O’Neal
Yes, The Diesel looked pretty good last night, but doesn’t that just put things into perspective? His 20/16 with 1 block on 9-of-15 shooting qualifies as his best game of the year, while even a few years ago that was pretty much a ho-hum Shaq Daddy evening. He won’t have any choice but to be the Heat’s main option while Wade is out and he showed that last night he can still dominate at times, but don’t count on a complete resurgence. He still hasn’t played more than 30 minutes in a game, and while he is working his way back into shape, counting on Shaq for 35+ mpg at this point, especially when teams will be focusing on him even more, just isn’t realistic. That said, Shaq could be one of the most valuable centers around in H2H leagues from here on out. His free throw woes still spell disaster in roto leagues and make him pretty untouchable, especially for teams within .20 of other teams in the free throw race. Expect Shaq’s drought of no 25 point games to end relatively soon, but if he “turns it on” expect 04-05 numbers at best, nowhere near his career best.
Jason Kapono
Kapono, like everyone else on the Heat, has benefited from having Wade out there. There will be more of everything to pick up while Wade’s out, but in games that Wade has missed so far this season Kapono hasn’t put up especially better numbers. That said, he has been the team’s most consistent scoring threat behind Flash for the past two months, so it’s reasonable to expect him to continue being a fine source of 3s and an all-around solid contributor. He’s working on a 13-game streak of scoring in double figures and is the #75 ranked player over the past month. He has “only” 5 3s in his past four games, but don’t be surprised to see him start launching more over the next few weeks, especially if the offense is running through Shaq and he looks for kick-out options. Kapono might even be a decent guy to slightly overpay for if you are looking to make a late run in 3s, as he is someone who can be a difference maker in that category and you won’t have to give up the farm for him.
Jason Williams
He just doesn’t seem like he’s going to be able to stay healthy. It’s too bad, because this would be a great opportunity for him to pick up some of the scoring slack, and it’s quite possible that he’ll string a few solid games together. He did it for much of January, but he has multiple ailments now and didn’t look to be playing at full speed last night. In a best-case scenario Williams could be an even better option than Kapono for those looking for cheap 3s. He launches at will – he had 5.1 attempts per game in January compared to Kapono’s 4 – and he can obviously also be an asset in assists and steals. Now that he’s back on the court he looks more worthy of a pick up, and he’s the kind of player that I’d be ready to pounce on after one good outing. The opportunity’s there, he’s streaky and you need to be quick with pickups at this point in the season.
Eddie Jones
It’s possible that Jones finds his way into the starting lineup, but it’s been such a lost season for Jones that it’s hard to see him really turning it around. I often talk about how the guys you can find for cheap on the free agent list will usually be able to help you in 3s while killing your FG% and Jones is yet another example of that. He hasn’t shot above 43% since the 2000-2001 season, so that means if he does enough to make a difference, he’ll be dragging your FG% down in the process. If no deal goes down then fellow veterans James Posey, Gary Payton and Antoine Walker will still be around to soak up some of the shots that Wade would have taken, so this isn’t one of those fill in situations where all the minutes simply get transferred to one player. I’ve always liked Jones and probably been a bigger supporter of his than most or than I should be, so if I’m this cold on him, that should say something.
The Rest
If last night’s game is any indication, there might not be too many fantasy winners in the aftermath of Wade’s injury. Pat Riley played 10 guys for at least 16 minutes and no more than 35 minutes. Granted, the game was a little out of hand by the end, but this is also a very old team. And without Wade, they are a very crappy team, even with Shaq manning the middle. Riley will mix and match because he doesn’t have the players to run out there for 40 minutes a night. I think Antoine Walker still has some big games in him, but unless he gets a chance to start he won’t be worth owning and he remains the worst player in the league when it comes to percentages. So the bottom line may be that even the one silver lining of an injury to a big-time player – more guys with fantasy value in his absence – might not even come to fruition in this case.