The defining mark of this fantasy basketball season has been the countless injuries to top players around the league. Look around the rosters in your league and there’s a very good chance you’ll only find a couple of teams that have made it to this point without one of their first round picks going down. But the cavalry is starting to come back, so today let’s take a look at some of the returning studs, how they are looking upon their return, what to expect from them the rest of the year, and look ahead to next year to see if they will be deserving of the dreaded “injury risk” tag or not.

Paul Pierce
I’ll admit that I was skeptical that Pierce was going to be back at all this season. He was out past his original diagnosis, his diagnosis seemed to change after a while, he came down with an infection while recovering, the Celtics are better off losing games … it just didn’t seem like it was worth it for The Truth to return. But after missing 25 games, Pierce returned on Feb. 9 and has at least resembled his old self. His first three starts were almost vintage Pierce – 29/2.7/3.7 with 3.3 3s and 1.3 steals. His shooting touch has abandoned him the past few games as the Celtics have been run over on their west coast road trip, but Pierce looks to be rounding back into game shape. A few things to note, with the caveat that he’s started just six games since his return. First, his minutes are down. He played 41 minutes in a loss at Phoenix and hasn’t topped 36 minutes in any of his other games. Pierce has usually been a guy who approaches 38-40 mpg, as it was his big minutes and clearly being the team’s first option that made him such a strong fantasy player. There is absolutely no reason at all for the C’s to ride Pierce and force him to play big minutes over the rest of the season. Does this mean that he’ll stay between 30 and 35 minutes on most nights? No way. He’s still a competitor and the team is going to try to win games when it can. He’ll have more than a few 40 minute games where he puts up big numbers. His lack of rebounds could be a legit concern. Pierce has always been good for 6-7 boards per contest, part of his strong overall game that made him a first-round pick. But he hasn’t topped six boards in any of his six starts and is averaging just 3.3 per in those games. He managed to not grab a single rebound in 36 minutes of play on Valentine’s Day against Milwaukee. It’s reasonable to think that crashing the boards wouldn’t be Pierce’s top priority upon returning, but after the rebounding tear he was on early in the season, his owners have to be a bit disappointed. He averaged 8.5 rpg in November, including 19 in the season opener, three other contests in double digits and three more games with 9. Pierce often went after rebounds because he felt like he had to do everything for the team, but in his absence Al Jefferson has emerged as one of the best on the boards in the game. He’s averaging nearly 12 rpg as a starter and has five games of 13 or more in his past 8. Might Pierce’s best rebounding days be behind him? Possible, but it’s not set in stone. We have liked Pierce as a late first rounder because of his durability, high minutes and need to do it all for his team. Over the rest of the season, be ready to expect top 20 numbers, if not necessarily top 10. As long as his foot injury doesn’t flare up again, it shouldn’t be a long-term concern.

Michael Redd
I’ve been looking forward to Redd’s return for a while, but I was keeping my expectations in check for his return. His knee injury was the type that kept him off the court for a while and would require a decent amount of “get back into it” time. Plus, he was playing the best ball of his career before the injury. He was likely to experience some sort of drop off in the second half regardless of his injury. Like Pierce, Redd’s minutes have been down since his return, especially in back-to-back games. His four games have been a pair of back-to-backs and he’s played 30-40-30-33 in those contests. One of the main reasons Redd had been so effective this year was his newfound ability to get the line. He jumped from 5.8 FTApg in 04-05 to 7.1 last year and was up to nearly 9 per game before his injury in early January. Unsurprisingly that aggressiveness hasn’t quite been there in his first few games back, as he’s averaging just 5.5 trips to the line, and that means more jump shots and that means a lower FG%. This is my main concern with Redd going forward. He had a very hot November in which he shot 48% on 21 attempts per game, then dropped down to 46% on 18 per game in December. He’s a career 45% shooter, so he could be expected to cool down, especially as teams paid him more attention. If he’s tentative to use his new attacking-the-basket game and will settle for jump shots it might result in more 3s (he’s attempted 26 in his past three games), but might have a negative impact on his value overall. Redd is someone to watch closely once he returns to full health. His hot first month made him one of the more buzz-worthy players early in the season, and that might make him slightly more valuable than he should be on draft day next year. There doesn’t seem to be any reason not to like him as a 3rd round pick again, but he’s still not a superstar for fantasy purposes.

Rashard Lewis
Lewis left his last game with a slight ankle sprain, but he seems likely to play tonight. We’ve all heard that one before, so take that for what it’s worth. Anyway, unlike Pierce and Redd, Lewis didn’t have an injury that required him to be off his feet for the entire time he was out. He could stay in shape while off the court, so it wasn’t too surprising to see him play 37 and 43 minutes in his first two games back. The rust was expected to be in his shooting, not his conditioning, and that’s been exactly the case. He’s right around 40% since his return, obviously far off from the 46% we expect him to be at these days. Other than that, he’s been doing basically what his owners were hoping he’d be doing for them all year. He’s at #35 on the 15 day rater, and if his FG% was at its normal spot he would move into the top 25. When it was announced that Lewis was going to be out for two months, we said there was still no way you could possibly drop him, not with his talent and with the fact that he’d be playing for a max contract over the season’s final months. The lack of re-adjustment time is a big thing to look at when you deal with injuries. That’s why knee/leg/foot injuries are always the worst – 19 missed games may the official take, but that can be followed by a spell of 5 or 6 games of limited effectiveness, and besides the shooting, that’s exactly what Lewis has avoided. Some Lewis owners might be worried about his bad shooting since his return, and they might be low in the standings because, well, they’ve been missing one of their best players for two months. Combined with that fact that Lewis is perennially one of the most underrated players in the game, there may not be a more landable difference maker out there to help you make your end-of-season push.