Now that the NBA trade deadline has passed, the next big date on the fantasy calendar is the trade deadline, which for many leagues is March 8. That means that for the next week or so, you’ve got two things to worry about. One is to really start to analyze your place in the standings. We’ll talk a little bit about that tomorrow. The other thing that you have to do is make some final decisions about the guys you’re heading down the stretch with. Is it time to pull off that blockbuster? Or will you, like all the NBA GM’s, stick to your guns and go with what brought you this far? Let’s take a look at some big names that you’re just going to have to guess on, and give a buy/sell recommendation.
Shaquille O’Neal
On the one hand, he could take over the team and lead them into the playoffs, a last gasp of dominance from the Big Aristotle. He’s shown signs of life - 18.6/11.3 with a block over his last three, and he’s played in every game in February. On the other hand, he’s only got so much left in the tank, and if Wade doesn’t come back, what’s the point? Shaq could very easily pack it in by St. Patrick’s Day and that won’t help you at all down the stretch. I say if you can get something of value for him, you go ahead and do it.
Baron Davis
I’ll give myself a little pat on the back for this one, although I really wasn’t going out on much of a limb here. Davis gets hurt, it’s what he does best. However, the other thing that he does is comes back for a valiant attempt to save his season, only to shut it back down again. It happened last year from March 3rd to March 11th. The year before that he returned for a good 2 months after being dealt to the Warriors. He made a couple of these surges in ‘03 and ‘04 as well. Baron owners are probably willing to give up their troubled point guard for a proverbial side of rice pilaf at this point. If you’ve got an extra roster spot lying around, well, why the heck not? The Warriors are unbelievably only 1.5 games out of the playoffs, and with Richardson back, Baron could be a worthwhile risk to take.
Caron Butler
Well, as we all know, back issues are problematic. But there is another issue here as well, namely his slump since the All-Star break. I’m not sure which is worse - the possibility that his slump is due to his back, or the possibility that it has nothing to do with his back. If you’re in a risk-averse position you should be prepared to take a third or even fourth-round value for him.
The Big Risks
I’ve already discussed a couple of them in this colulmn, but it’s worth going over this type in general. A couple of them, like Tim Duncan and Jermaine O’Neal, have gotten through the year relatively unscathed. Others, like Lamar Odom or Marcus Camby, have certainly missed their fair share but have still helped their fantasy teams in a big way. Now that we’re getting near the stretch run, we should see all of these guys start moving from the teams at the top of the standings to the teams at the bottom of the standings. For an example, let’s take Duncan. As solid as he’s been this year, he’s still just as much of a health risk as he was in October. Teams that are winning with him shouldn’t take that risk, and will probably be willing to give him up for a more solid player who may have a little less of a ceiling. Teams that are losing, though, and have nothing to lose, should be grabbing these guys if they’re at all available at a discount.
Pretty Much Every Veteran on a Bad Team
The list is plentiful - Pau Gasol, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Ron Artest, Paul Pierce … a lot of quality names here. Of course, a lot of these guys are possibly on bad fantasy teams as well, due to the time they missed. But on the off chance that you’ve got one of these guys AND a contending squad, you might try to make a move for someone who’s gonna have something to play for come April.