Decision Time

Now that the NBA trade deadline has passed, the next big date on the fantasy calendar is the trade deadline, which for many leagues is March 8.  That means that for the next week or so, you’ve got two things to worry about.  One is to really start to analyze your place in the standings.  We’ll talk a little bit about that tomorrow.  The other thing that you have to do is make some final decisions about the guys you’re heading down the stretch with.  Is it time to pull off that blockbuster?  Or will you, like all the NBA GM’s, stick to your guns and go with what brought you this far?  Let’s take a look at some big names that you’re just going to have to guess on, and give a buy/sell recommendation.

Shaquille O’Neal
On the one hand, he could take over the team and lead them into the playoffs, a last gasp of dominance from the Big Aristotle.  He’s shown signs of life - 18.6/11.3 with a block over his last three, and he’s played in every game in February.  On the other hand, he’s only got so much left in the tank, and if Wade doesn’t come back, what’s the point?  Shaq could very easily pack it in by St. Patrick’s Day and that won’t help you at all down the stretch.  I say if you can get something of value for him, you go ahead and do it.

Baron Davis
I’ll give myself a little pat on the back for this one, although I really wasn’t going out on much of a limb here.  Davis gets hurt, it’s what he does best.  However, the other thing that he does is comes back for a valiant attempt to save his season, only to shut it back down again.  It happened last year from March 3rd to March 11th.  The year before that he returned for a good 2 months after being dealt to the Warriors.  He made a couple of these surges in ‘03 and ‘04 as well.  Baron owners are probably willing to give up their troubled point guard for a proverbial side of rice pilaf at this point.  If you’ve got an extra roster spot lying around, well, why the heck not?  The Warriors are unbelievably only 1.5 games out of the playoffs, and with Richardson back, Baron could be a worthwhile risk to take.

Caron Butler
Well, as we all know, back issues are problematic.  But there is another issue here as well, namely his slump since the All-Star break.  I’m not sure which is worse - the possibility that his slump is due to his back, or the possibility that it has nothing to do with his back.  If you’re in a risk-averse position you should be prepared to take a third or even fourth-round value for him.

The Big Risks
I’ve already discussed a couple of them in this colulmn, but it’s worth going over this type in general.  A couple of them, like Tim Duncan and Jermaine O’Neal, have gotten through the year relatively unscathed.  Others, like Lamar Odom or Marcus Camby, have certainly missed their fair share but have still helped their fantasy teams in a big way.  Now that we’re getting near the stretch run, we should see all of these guys start moving from the teams at the top of the standings to the teams at the bottom of the standings.  For an example, let’s take Duncan.  As solid as he’s been this year, he’s still just as much of a health risk as he was in October.  Teams that are winning with him shouldn’t take that risk, and will probably be willing to give him up for a more solid player who may have a little less of a ceiling.  Teams that are losing, though, and have nothing to lose, should be grabbing these guys if they’re at all available at a discount.

Pretty Much Every Veteran on a Bad Team
The list is plentiful - Pau Gasol, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Ron Artest, Paul Pierce … a lot of quality names here.  Of course, a lot of these guys are possibly on bad fantasy teams as well, due to the time they missed.  But on the off chance that you’ve got one of these guys AND a contending squad, you might try to make a move for someone who’s gonna have something to play for come April.

01
Matt
February 27th, 2007 6:51 am

Mase: An update on the trade offers…

The guy traded Deron away after about a week of offering him to me (I’m pissed to say the least…but he got Parker and D. Howard for Williams and Ben Wallace, great trade for him, bad for the 3rd place team he traded with who needs FT%, PTS and 3 PTM), but then came back to me with an offer of Cassell, Darko and Kapono for Ford, Ilgauskas and Millsap. After hearing about Livingston’s injury I accepted very fast (as the guy was still willing to make the trade even with news of Livingston’s injury).

1) I give my trade a thumbs up, you?

2) Also, what could I expect for a Rashard Lewis? What would make trading him worthwhile? Isn’t he a good bet to play hard through the end of the season now that he’s looking like he’s opting out?

02
Ben
February 27th, 2007 10:37 am

Did anybody catch that Shaun Livingston knee dislocation last night? There’s a clip on NBA.com…careful, it’s nauseating. I’ve dislocated my knee before, but nothing like that…my stomach is still queasy.

As a side note, this should be the last time Livingston makes me feel ill this season, since I picked up Jose Calderon within a few hours of the injury. I’m pretty sure Livingston will be hanging it up for the season. Here’s to a better 2008 for Livingston, who has to be one of the biggest disappointment in the NBA this season, regardless of the injury.

03
arpit
February 27th, 2007 12:58 pm

whats the situation with yao, should i trade him away while i can or wait it out. If i should trade him who should i target. I was thinking players like rashard lewis, lamar odom, caron butler, or al harrington. My team is pretty well rounded and anything will help. Yao has been out a while and my team has been doing great.

04
ic
February 27th, 2007 1:23 pm

i would wait it out. he’s supposed to come back soon.

i just made a trade of ray allen and brad miller for andre iguodola. what do you guys think?

05
OB
February 27th, 2007 1:50 pm

Jamal Crawford is likely out for the season…

i would hold out for yao….

ray allen and brad miller for iguodala…gave up a little too much…maybe could have acquired another younger player in the deal…

06
Terrance
February 27th, 2007 2:37 pm
07
ray
February 27th, 2007 2:45 pm

man i wouldn’t trade ray allen straight up for iguodala

when he’s playing he is top 10 in fantasy iguodala is playing great but he is more like rank 10-20 guy at his best

08
Rook
February 27th, 2007 2:47 pm

I definitely appreciate the last point about star veterans taking April off. Last year was very unpredictable. I’d put Michael Redd on the list for this year as well.

Outside of the Grizzlies, though, every team in the Western Conference is within 5 games of the last playoff spot. Maybe that’ll mitigate the problem in, say, Allen’s case.

Looking at some of the game logs from last year to refresh my memory, Ray Allen actually didn’t skip any games, and didn’t seem to play reduced minutes either, and the Sonics finished six games out of the playoffs. Garnett famously sat out the last two weeks, and Pierce and Randolph the last week.

It’s tough to trade away real stud players without messing up your team at this point…

09
Mase
February 27th, 2007 4:56 pm

Matt: Regarding your trade

1. Yes, I give it a thumbs up. Cassell is the best point guard in Los Angeles now… and he should be pretty consistent (unless he’s injured). Kapono is really hot right now, and I think he can keep it up since Wade is gone. Darko is the question mark, but he has a lot of upside. I think you got a good deal.

2. Are you playing H2H or Roto format? I think Rashard Lewuis is a lot more valuable in Roto format, since he’s kind of like Shawn Marion / Josh Howard… the type of player who gives you a little bit of stat in all categories. If you play in H2H league, this type of player are not as valuable since you’re not trying to win all 9 categories… your goal is to take 5 out of the 9 categories every week.

Anyhow, I assume you’re playing in Roto format and therefore Lewis is very valuable. Pairing him with Kapono is pretty sweet since they’re both high percentage 3-point shooters. Rashard is average-ranked at #8 for the year on Yahoo… and I think most people consider him a top 15 player… so if you can get him for a guy who’s average-ranked between 20-30 it’s definitely a steal.

10
Ray Recca
February 28th, 2007 5:44 pm

Should we expect last year’s number out of Cassell now that Livingston is down? Is he still injured?

11
DW
February 28th, 2007 10:30 pm

This is somewhat off subject but I’m wondering if anyone has a few good names of prospect-types who might be slightly off the radar in a 12-team league? I’m in an 18-year-old league and for the first time in years (due to a string of injuries) I’m not making our playoffs - which start next week. Anyone I pick up before Monday is eligible to be a keeper for next season.

Anyone have some thoughts on guys who might be underperforming or haven’t had a chance to perform - but very possibly could make strides heading into next season?

Thanks.

Leave Your Comment

Name*
Mail*
Website
Comment