Reaching Your Punt-ential

One of my favorite columns to write every year is on punting.  Last year I just focused on one category, blocks, and talked a lot about the overall strategy of punting.  Basically, it goes like this - if you’re going to punt a category, every asset you have in that category is wasted value.  For example, if you’re going to punt rebounds, any guy that is a good rebounder at his position is being wasted on your team.  For a more detailed explanation you can go back and check last year’s column.  This year, I want to talk about some guys to target depending on what you’re punting, and the nuances that go with punting that category.  Ready? OK:

FG%
Percentages are possibly the easiest categories to punt, because players are all over the board and a poor shooter isn’t neceessarily poor in other catgories.  You’ll want to load up on jump-shooting centers like Mehmet Okur, and Jermaine O’Neal is an absolute must here, a poor-shooting big who is nonetheless dominant in other big categories like boards and blocks.  Generally poor-percentage bigs aren’t big in blocks (like Brad Miller, for example), so O’Neal is a great guy to have here.

FT%
Free throw are also popular to punt because some players are just SO AWFUL here that they’re poison to any team that isn’t punting.  There are some obvious ones here - Shaq, Ben Wallace, etc., but the tougher part is finding some PG’s who are poor from the stripe.  The token poor-FT% PG, Baron Davis, is a major question mark, so you may have to settle for a Jamaal Tinsley or Rafer Alston here.  You’re also going to want to go after LeBron, the best high-assists low-FT% guy in the league right now.

Points
No question, points is the toughest category to punt.  I mean, who are your studs?  Jason Kidd is the only Top-15 player on the APR who’s a negative contributer in points, so he’s a must.  Marcus Camby is another … but let’s face it, punting points is just not a way to win a league.

Rebounds
Logic dictates that if you’re going to punt boards, you’re going to have problems in the other big-man categories, blocks and FG%.  So in addition to grabbing poor-boarding bigs like Mark Blount and Eddy Curry, you’re going to want to track down a couple of swingmen who are good shooters and good blockers, like Gerald Wallace or Andrei Kirilenko.

Assists
Obviously the tough thing here is picking up the right PG, and generally you’re going to want to grab one of those fake point guards like Leandro Barbosa or Ben Gordon, scorers who qualify at PG.  You’re also going to run into issues with FT% and Steals, so Dirk Nowitzki and his phenomenal FT% is a must, as are pure shooters like Matt Carroll and Kyle Korver to pick up the slack from the line.  Ron Artest is a nice guy to have here to help with steals, as well.

Steals
Just like punting assists is problematic for steals, punting steals is problematic for assists.  Steve Nash is a must-have here - of the top 20 assist men in the league, only Nash doesn’t contribute positively in steals.  Sam Cassell, with his newfound minutes with the Clippers, is also a helpful guy here.

Blocks
The main concern here is going to be rebounds, but there are a couple of guys who fit the bill, namely Carlos Boozer, Zack Randolph, and David LeeAndrew Bogut and Eddy Curry are some other nice big men to have here.  Help in FG% can be found from guards like Tony Parker and Steve Nash.

01
Matt
February 28th, 2007 6:48 am

Punting can work, but if you’re in a roto-league, you better be really strong everywhere else. I’m in first in my 13 team roto league, and I’m competitive in every area, whereas the 2nd place guy is second or third last (depending on the day) in FT% (I’m leading the category) and 3rd or 4th last in steals (I’m 2nd).

As far as I’m concerned, if you’re losing 9-10 points just because you suck in one category it’s hard to make up those points elsewhere because even the teams at the bottom of the standings lead in at least one category.

Maybe it’s a better strategy for H2H.

02
john
February 28th, 2007 7:00 am

i have, on several occasions, punted 3pm…
a. there’s a lot of guards who cant shoot threes wade, tony parker, chris paul, cassell, iguodala, tj ford, andre miller etc… there’s even more quality SFs who cant shoot threes (caron, rjeff, etc…), so you only need to choose your guards wisely.
b. ‘average’ guys who throw up a lot of threes invariably have low fg% (not counting studs like rashard or redd), so you end up boosting your fg% when you trade away those guys.

03
john
February 28th, 2007 7:04 am

yeah, punting in a roto league is quite difficult to pull off… one thing you have to estimate is how diligent your oppornents are going to be in updating their lineups once their rankings are pretty much fixed (bottom-dwellers). If a bunch of them will stop updating their teams, then punting becomes less viable, since you will invariably pick up some additional points by having a few mediocre players once a group of teams stop updating. This occurs easily with a category like blocks, where only a small group of players contribute to a large proportion of the total…

04
CBass
February 28th, 2007 7:57 am

Question: I was offered Josh Howard for Kirk Hinrich. It’s H2H, so points are points, no cats. Should I go for it, or will Hinrich outplay Howard for the rest of the year?

05
Rook
February 28th, 2007 8:43 am

I love this topic. I’ve noticed as well that it’s hard to win when punting. My league has some extra categories, so that makes it easier to swallow a “1″ in something — and harder to field a team that’s good in everything. All the teams at the top of my league are by now punting something.

One thing I’ve noticed a lot is the “pseudo-punt”: someone at the 50 game mark realizes that they have a 4 in a category, but they’re so far behind the person with 5, and so far ahead of the person with 3, that it makes a lot of sense to trade away all the talent in that category.

You mention throughout this column another important factor: how correlated the category is to overall value. It’s easy to punt blocks because most guys who get blocks are actually just terrible. If you had a 2 in blocks and wanted to catch up to the middle of the pack, it’s very hard because the high-value, high-BLK guys are so entrenched on other people’s fantasy teams, and the waiver wire BLK guys are awful. So might as well punt. But it’s harder to punt points because points are so correlated with overall value, as you noted.

Once I made the decision to punt a category, it really opened up the league for me and I immediately started moving up the standings. It definitely can work.

06
Long
February 28th, 2007 10:39 am

I agree with most of the article. But how about punting TOs. My team was loaded with heavy ball handlers and when I punted TOs, it made the decisions regarding waiver options much more easier.

07
JM
February 28th, 2007 12:01 pm

Long,
I think that TO is the easiest (possibly the only) category to punt in a roto league, and still do well, since so many of the really good players are high TO guys.

08
bv
February 28th, 2007 1:50 pm

Long, we play without turnovers, specifically so we can avoid writing things like “heavy ball handler.”

09
OB
February 28th, 2007 2:24 pm

in my roto league, someone smart added flagrant fouls as a category…it is so random…

I have 3 for the season…everyone else has 2….my team is better but they are all competing…it feels like vigilante justice…

10
Mase
February 28th, 2007 2:32 pm

Very interesting post. Punting is absolutely necessary in H2H leagues.

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