The Super Bowl may be tomorrow, but don’t fret… Head-to-Head’s Up is here to help set your fantasy hoops lineup despite all the distractions.  Most teams have a full schedule coming up before taking a break the following week for the All-Star festivities.  Let’s take a look at week 2/5-2/11:

Four games: Atlanta, Charlotte, Boston, Chicago, Denver, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Orleans, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Sacramento, Seattle.

Three Games: Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Milwaukee, Portland, San Antonio, Toronto, Washington.

Two Games: New York, Utah.

How terrible is Andrei Kirilenko??? Frustrated owners were hoping for some type of improvement (anything) after they heard Carlos Boozer would miss a month, but what has AK-47 done recently? He scored 9 points on 3 for 14 shooting on Wednesday, and has only 1 steal and 1 block total in his last three games.  He’s reached double digits scoring in only two out of his last nine games.  Perhaps the Soviet Secret Police have something to do with this…  I can’t explain it.  Sit him down this week, and hope for consecutive big games after which you should sell, sell, sell!

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Brandon Roy, G:  The 6th overall pick in last year’s draft has emerged as the clear favorite for Rookie of the Year honors.  Brandon ROY is averaging a very impressive 17/5/4, 1.2 treys, 1.6 thefts, and 45/91% in 2007.  Despite missing a month early in the season due to injury, the versatile guard has been the only rookie to perform consistently for his team and for his fantasy owners.  Roy’s development has been evident as he’s posted career highs in points (28), rebounds (10), and assists (11) in different games over the last two weeks.  Roy-Roy should be in fantasy lineups regardless of format or the size of your league.  Plug him in for three matchups this week.

Nick Collison, F/C: Seattle’s “Tall Vanilla Latte” (oh my god I love that nickname) has been a beast since returning to the starting lineup last month.  The former Jayhawk has posted 19/13/1 with a steal & a block and ridiculous percentages (62/79%) over his last 11 games.  Collison has obviously stepped it up in the absence of Rashard Lewis, but this is just downright silly for a guy who went undrafted in most fantasy leagues.  He’s played 42 and 46 minutes in the Sonics’ last two games, and is showing no signs of slowing down.  Plus, his center-eligibility makes Collison a pretty sweet commodity.  Keep the Tall Vanilla Latte (you could say he’s “steaming” right now) in your lineups for another four games this week.

Hedo Turkoglu, G/F: Many of us thought that Turkoglu would build on his career season last year, but he has seen a dip in most fantasy categories in 2006-07.  Veteran Grant Hill’s relative good health has helped limit Hedo to around 30 mpg this year, but Hill’s most recent injury (sprained MCL) will shelve him for at least the next two weeks, if not longer.  Meanwhile, Dr. Turk has rediscovered his mojo in recent weeks, averaging 16/4/2 with 1.8 threes, 1.5 steals, and impressive shooting (48/83%) since January 10.  He should be able to maintain his surge and hopefully parlay it into a strong second half this season.  With Hill out and four games on tap, this week is an ideal time to get the Turkish sniper in your lineup.

Vladimir Radmanovic, F: Speaking of Eastern European sharpshooters, VladRad’s fantasy numbers are also benefiting due to an injured teammate… Luke Walton is expected to miss a week with a sprained ankle.  Radman has started the last four games for the Lakers, posting 14/7/2 with 1.8 treys, 1.3 steals, and 55/75% shooting.  As their numbers would indicate, Turkoglu and Radmanovic are very similar players—both in style and production–when given playing time.  Walton had been struggling before his injury anyway, failing to score double digits in 9 of his last 11 games, so if Vladimir can maintain a certain level of consistency he could supplant Walton in the starting lineup.  He’s a solid play for four games next week, regardless.  I suspect Radman might score 30 tonight against the Wizards and find his way onto many fantasy rosters by tomorrow.

Pickup: LaMarcus Aldridge
Drop:  Steven Hunter
Hunter hasn’t been all that terrible in his run as a starter, averaging 9.1/7.1/0.9 with 1.5 blocks on 52% shooting. But he’s really not helping you anywhere but blocks and this is the most you can expect from him and that translates into #140 on the 15-day rater. Aldridge is still stuck with just a small piece of the big man pie in Portland, so this is clearly a speculation pick up, waiting for that inevitable Jamaal Magloire trade. Aldridge reached double digits in five of seven games in the middle of January, but was back to irrelevance soon after that. Like many young bigs, he has a huge problem getting into quick foul trouble. And when you play on a team with three other 7-footers, that’s not a good thing. The rookie’s game still has plenty to like, but no doubt you’ll be seeing his name shortly in a future TR.

Pickup: Jorge Garbajosa
Drop:  Ruben Patterson
Garbajosa’s center eligibility is what was behind this pickup. The team that made this transaction is first in the league in both rebounds and blocks, and before picking up Garbajosa his only centers were Alonzo Mourning and Dikembe Mutombo. Not bad, right? Now that Shaq seems to be back he needed another person in the middle, and even though Garbajosa starts at SF, he’s got that eligibility. He seems entrenched in the starting lineup but had an incredibly lackluster January, putting up 6.2/4.1/2.2 on 33% shooting. Just amazingly bad. The 0.9 3s and 1.2 steals make it a bit better, but just a bit. He hit double digits just twice in the month and even with his center eligibility, it’s hard to see him being worth even a bench spot at this point. Patterson appeared to lose his starting job when the Bucks started to get healthy, but he was back in there when they got blown out by Orlando on Wednesday. He might stick there with Earl Boykins continuing to come off the bench, but with Charlie Villanueva and Mo Williams back, his opportunities will be much more limited. Patterson is basically playing to his career averages, it’s the increase in minutes that’s giving him a career high in points, assists and boards. He might put together some nice games and probably won’t hurt you too much if you really need to use him, but winning teams shouldn’t be relying on him at this point.

Pickup: Daniel Gibson
Drop:  Morris Peterson
Gibson has displaced Eric Snow as the starting PG for the Cavs, and in his first two starts he’s put up 15.5/2.0/1.5 with 4 3s in 27 mpg. The second round pick has shown impressive accuracy from outside, connecting on 47% of his 3s so far, and if he keeps starting and launching a half-dozen treys per game then he can be yet another waiver-wire 3-point option. He might be enough of a black hole in the other categories to not be worth the time, though. He’s averaging barely half a steal per 40 minutes, and isn’t going to rack up the assists either. He might be worth taking a chance on while he’s hot if you need help in 3s, but don’t expect any kind of serious breakout. We keep waiting for Peterson to get back into the starting lineup or get traded to a team that will start him, but it keeps not happening. It’s been a dozen games since he topped 30 minutes, and while he can still hit his share of 3s, his lack of PT simply makes him not worth having around.

Pickup: Gerald Green
Drop:  Mickael Pietrus
In the land of retarded stats, the one about the Celtics being 2-20 or whatever when Gerald Green receives 18+ mpg is one of the most retarded. Clearly those losses are because of Green, not because he is playing in place of the Celtics best player, Paul Pierce. Come on now. Green has made 16 starts on the season, seeing 31.5 mpg in those contests, which is a decent sample size. His line of 14.2/3.9/1.6 with 1.9 3s is pretty typical for a waiver wire option, especially when you factor in the 41% shooting. He shot 48% last year in limited action, which made us think he might be a rare high-percentage SG, but that’s not so clear anymore. It’s only his second season and he will continue to get better, but this is probably about as good as it gets for this year. Pietrus is another victim of The Whims of Don Nelson – he starts, he gets hurt, he starts, he comes off the bench, he starts. He’s putting up almost identical numbers as Green, except with an impressive 50% from the field that looks more like a mirage than a new trend. If he were assured 35 mpg he’d certainly be roster-worthy, but he’s not one of the players to trust on Golden State.

Pickup: Brendan Haywood
Drop:  Channing Frye
This is a move I made. Over the years there hasn’t been a single player who we’ve had more of a love/hate relationship with than Brenda(n) Haywood. So when he started playing some great ball lately I just had to grab him. I won’t give you an in-depth scouting report on Haywood, but I’ll say that he’s learning that he’s more likely to score when he goes to the basket, but that his few jumpers have been looking pretty good lately. He’s a really terrific defender and offensive rebounder, even if it does take him about 7 seconds to get a rebound and then throw three head fakes before dunking. I made this move before Antawn Jamison went down, but I’m not so sure his absence will mean bigger things for Haywood. What’s more important is that he continues to hold off Etan Thomas and receive around 30 mpg. Frye at least gave me one solid game when Eddy Curry was out, but he’s simply too low in the pecking order on the Knicks and David Lee is simply a superior player.

Pickup: Bostjan Nachbar
Drop:  Luke Walton
Here’s the problem with guys like Nachbar. He has a good game, you take notice. He has another good game, you officially start watching him. He has his best game yet, you snag him. Then you stick him in your lineup to try to catch the rest of the hot streak and he goes and gets the flu or something. I mentioned in the comments that I’m not a big fan of Nachbar, even with Richard Jefferson out. He’s still not starting, he’s still a career 38% shooter. Next. Walton’s injury makes him very droppable, because honestly he was droppable for most of January. His numbers were down in every category, even his solid percentages fell to 41/73. He’s #140 on the 30 day rater, which isn’t good.

Pickup: Paul Millsap
Drop:  Rasual Butler
BV swooped in on this one within an hour of Carlos Boozer going down, which tells you that even on a Saturday night, BV has easy access to a computer. But he deserves to have Millsap because he has been talking him up for a while, even telling me over the summer he wanted the Wizards to spend a pick on him. The numbers pretty much speak for themselves. Millsap’s averaging just over 16 mpg on the season, so double his numbers and you get 12.8/9.4/1.2 with 1.4 steals and 2.0 blocks on 54.5% from the field. Um, yes please. If you watched the Jazz/Spurs game on ESPN Thursday you saw that even though Millsap didn’t start he was out there the entire fourth quarter and he’s one of those guys who is simply always around the ball. About 40% of his boards come on the offensive glass, which helps him get some easy hoops. The Jazz will obviously miss Boozer a ton as he really opens up the floor by being such an inside presence. But if you’re a Boozer owner who quickly scooper up Millsap, the truth is you might not see too much of a drop off in productivity. It’s still an annoyance that he’s coming off the bench, as he could do some serious damage in 38-40 mpg, but you take what you can get from Jerry Sloan, I suppose.

Pickup: Marcus Williams
Drop: Randy Foye
Swapping rookie backup PGs that are receiving more and more time as the season progresses. Williams has hit double digits in his past five games, averaging 14/3/4.2 with 1.4 3s in just 22.4 mpg. Unless that last number goes up, the other numbers won’t go up and that leaves him as yet another player you can pick up for free who might give you some 3s and not much else. Foye is stuck in the same boat, not starting but seeing significant time. In January he averaged 10.5/3.4/3.1 with 0.9 3s in 26 mpg. What is alarming is that he averaged just 0.3 steals per game in the month, while shooting 39%. Not good numbers. He’s Minnesota’s finisher at PG for the most part, but it seems unlikely he’ll supplant Mike James any time soon, so expect the time share to continue.

Today we’ll look at some of the most pleasant surprises of the first half of the season and try to figure out if they can make it last for the rest of the year. These players are all in the top 40 of the player rater, meaning they all have serious trade value. If you have these guys on your team (hello, BV!), you could get serious value for them in return. So, should you explore that?

Caron Butler
Butler has easily been the surprise star of the fantasy season. Maybe other players came from more obscurity to be solid contributors, but Butler has gone from consensus mid-round pick to absolute star. Look at the names above him on the rater – Marion, Arenas, Nash, Garnett, Nowitzki, Kidd, Wade, Brand, Bryant. Every single one of those picks except Kidd was a first rounder, and Kidd was a second rounder. And Butler is right there with them. Take a moment to appreciate that. It would be pretty unreasonable to expect this to continue, and I’m not so sure that Antawn Jamison’s injury is going to help him too much. Butler is a career 43.6% shooter who is shooting almost 48% on a career high 16.2 shots per game. Now. Butler’s jumper is incredibly accurate, but if that percentage comes down – and history suggests it will, at least a bit – and the shots increase just a bit, that could have a bigger impact on his value than you think. He’ll continue to see around 41 mpg, which obviously cannot be discounted. Only Allen Iverson and LeBron James are playing more minutes than Butler this year. Because of that (and, of course, barring an injury), his cumulative numbers should remain around the 20/8/4 level, along with the tons of steals his owners have grown to love. But there might be some 7-for-18s in his future, and if those add up, your FG% will suffer. Tuff Juice is for real, and you probably still won’t get equal value if looking to deal him, but you might want to think of finding someone to help balance what could be a fairly significant drop in FG% in the second half.

Emeka Okafor
Okafor’s only nine spots down on the player rater from Butler, although it’s a big statistical gap between the two. Okafor’s breakthrough has come courtesy of him fulfilling his block potential that we all thought he had coming out of college and by shooting the ball like an actual big man. He shot just 41.5% in his injury-plagued season last year, which I don’t need to tell you is just awful for a center. And that came on the heels of a not-quite 45% rookie season, so it was starting to look like he might be a Jermaine O’Neal type, a big man who just didn’t help you at all in FG%. Unlike O’Neal, though, Okafor doesn’t settle for too many jumpers, and he doesn’t take all that many shots to begin with, so while his 53.5% from the field this year is certainly surprising, it’s not shocking. One reason I like Okafor to hold his ground in the second half of the season is that there is still room for his offensive game to grow. His FGA are slightly down from last year, 12.2 to 11.4, so it’s possible he can carve out a bigger role in the offense. Granted he’s got lots of shooters – or, rather, people who like to shoot – surrounding him, but a bump up of a couple of ppg isn’t out of the question. But since most of his value is tied into his blocks and rebounds, he should be pretty safe. He simply delivers in those categories basically every night and throws in monster performances pretty regularly. He hasn’t missed a game yet this season, and that might not last, but if he plays in 75 games I’d expect to see him finish the season in the top 25.

Manu Ginobili
I really don’t know how Ginobili is doing it. We preach minutes above all else here, and then you’ve got Manu who is averaging a mere 28 mpg yet sits at #27 on the rater. Pretty unbelievable. We should give some credit to both Ginobili and Gregg Popovich for proper handling here. Ginobili is a guy who crashes around the floor and has a tendency to get banged up. The Spurs have at least decent depth at his position with Michael Finley and Brent Barry, so why not limit Ginobili’s minutes with the hopes of keeping him healthy? It’s worked beautifully so far as he has missed just five games and been brilliant while on the court. No numbers really jump out at you – 16.3/4.5/3.3, 1.6 3s, 1.7 steals, 45/86 – but there’s no weakness to be found. But you have to think this is as good as it gets for Ginobili. You get the feeling that as the season wears on and the Spurs start facing reality and preparing for the playoffs as a #3 seed that Ginobili might take some games off. He missed 17 last season and 8 the year before, so expect him to sit out a few more. And those minutes will be kept in check, too, as Ginobili just isn’t a 30+ minute player under Popovich on the Spurs. He’s a fun player to watch and easy to get attached to, but if I could afford to give up the steals I’d probably look for someone with a better track record of health and big minutes.

Ben Gordon/Luol Deng
We’ll group these two together since they are teammates. Both of these players are having legitimate breakout seasons and – noticing a trend here? – both are using career-high shattering FG% to lead the way. Gordon is shooting a remarkable 46%, way up from the 42 and 41 of his first two seasons. He’s also become one of the most valuable in the game from the free throw line. His 87.4% on 6 attempts per game puts him behind only Dirk, Kobe and Kevin Martin in value in that category. Breakout seasons are almost always tied into increased value in percentages, it’s just the way it goes. Gordon seems to have corrected the fluke of playing much better off the bench than as a starter, as he’s averaging 23.4/3.3/4.9 in the last nine games and is up to #28 on the player rater. Deng hasn’t disappointed in what I thought would be a big season for him. Again, it’s the shooting – 52% up from 46% – as most of his other numbers are right where you’d expect them to be given the slight increase in minutes. What I really like about Deng is that he seems to know his strengths and weaknesses. In his rookie season he shot just 26.5% from long range while attempting two per game. Last year that percentage stayed the same even though he attempted just one per game. He might still discover his outside shot later in his career, but this year he has eliminated it from his game completely, attempting just 3 on the season, but that plays a big role in his increased FG%. Both Deng and Gordon can continue contributing at their current levels provided that Chicago doesn’t make a big trade. On most teams these players would have be the first and second offensive options, but that’s how it is in Chicago. The complete lack of any interior option means that no matter how any game is going, these players will get their looks and have the ball plenty. There are only two games in the past month in which Deng has taken single digit shots, and Gordon fires at will and is seeing 36+ mpg as a starter. Bring Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph or someone like that into the picture and suddenly the hierarchy changes.