For those of you owners of Mike Miller, Joe Johnson, Andrew Bogut, Ray Allen, etc, who think that this is about as bad as it’s gonna get, I’ve got some bad news for you:  It’s only going to get worse from here.  As we get even closer to the end of the season, teams are going to have even less incentive to play, and studs are going to start sitting more and more.  Let’s look at a few teams who could, by the time the weekend is through, have thrown in the towel, and what that might mean for you:

Sacramento Kings
The Kings are a great bet to have someone come out of nowhere to me a real fantasy force over the last few weeks of the year.  Why?  For one, they’ve got 12 games left this year still, tied for most in the league with Washington, Milwaukee and Denver.  Two, they’ve got plenty of disgruntled veterans who would be more than happy to sit out – Brad Miller has already called it quits, Ron Artest may or may not even be in the NBA by this time next week, and Mike Bibby is so ready to be done with this season it isn’t even funny.  And three, they’ve got a couple of guys who have the potential to be fantasy factors if they’re given enough PT.  John Salmons has flirted on and off with fantasy value all year and, given enough PT and enough offensive attention has the potential to be a 15-5-5 guy.  Francisco Garcia, meanwhile, has regressed from his disappointing rookie year but could be a source of threes if he’s relied on much for offense, as well.  The Kings are hanging on for dear life in the playoff race, play twice this weekend, and could be essentially out of it by Monday.

Minnesota Timberwolves
Oh, Kevin Garnett, how we feel for ya.  Was it really just a few weeks ago that you and the Timberwolves went on a three game winning streak and were right in the thick of things for a chance to make the playoffs?  Well, not anymore.  The T-Wolves have lost 3 of 4 and 7 of their last 10 and are now 4 games out of the 8th spot in the West, with four teams ahead of them.  Now, the Wolves are going to play their best as long as possible because it would make Kevin McHale look even MORE ridiculous if they didn’t trade Garnett AND tanked in the same season, but eventually they’ll be so far out that Garnett and probably Ricky Davis will find reasons to wear suits on the bench.  This could be great news for guys like Craig Smith and Randy Foye should it happen.  The Wolves play their next four games against East Coast opponents and we may have already seen Kevin Garnett’s final intra-conference game as a Timberwolf.

Indiana Pacers
Now, the Pacers don’t look all that close to being out of it, but check out this nugget from Chad Ford’s chat on ESPN.com yesterday: “Yeah, the Pacers have a huge incentive to tank. If their pick is 11 or higher, they have to send it to Atlanta. If it’s 10 or lower they keep it.”  I did not know that!  Something gives me the feeling that Jermaine O’Neal may sit out some more games because of this, if not now than later when they COULD be out of it.  In fact, their itchy tanking trigger finger might be in effect as early as next week after they host both the Spurs and Pistons.  That’s probably great news for Danny Granger, probably awful news for Jermiane O’Neal, and who the hell knows for the rest of the team.

In my preseason H2H draft strategy I urged folks to target point guards and big men while avoiding the majority of one-dimensional G/Fs.  The idea was to build a team that would dominate in 4 or 5 categories while remaining competitive in the rest… thus giving you the best chance to win every week, no matter who your opponent.  I discouraged drafting SGs and SFs like Rip Hamilton and even Carmelo Anthony, but made an exception for multi-category contributors such as Gerald Wallace, Andre Iguodala, and Josh Smith. The versatility of these swingmen was too obvious to ignore.  In most leagues ‘Melo was typically drafted in the second or third round. He’s definitely lived up to those expectations (2nd in the league with 29ppg), but it appears he’s reached a fantasy ceiling because of his limitations in other categories (0.5 threes, 0.3 blocks, etc).
When you look at players like G-Force, Iggy, and J-Smoove… the sky is the limit.  Not only are they more valuable in H2H leagues, but they ultimately have higher upside than Carmelo Anthony in all leagues. In other words, all three players (and other players in their mold) could potentially be future first round draft picks due to their “Matrix-like” ability. Here are some numbers to chew on:

2006-07 Season:
Andre Iguodala: 18/6/6, 0.7 3s, 2 stls, 0.4 blks, 45/83%.  -Ranked #17 overall.
Josh Smith: 16/8/3, 0.6 3s, 1.4 stls, 2.9 blks, 44/69%.  -Ranked #24 overall.
*Carmelo Anthony: 29/6/4, 0.5 3s, 1.2 stls, 0.3 blks, 48/80%.  -Ranked #25 overall.
Gerald Wallace:17/7/3, 0.5 3s, 1.8 stls, 1 blk, 50/69%.  -Ranked #42 overall.

Keep in mind the young trio each had obstacles to overcome this season. Iggy didn’t truly breakout until after AI and C-Webb were traded, while Smith and Wallace have struggled at times with injuries.  Yes, Carmelo had his suspension, but it did not affect his averages.  So when we look at a more recent sample, you can really see the multi-cat swingmen strutting their stuff:

Last 30 days:
Gerald Wallace: 22/8/4, 0.7/1.9/1.6, 54/76%.  -Ranked #4 overall.
Josh Smith: 20/9/4, 0.8/1.4/3.6, 47/72%.  -Ranked #5 overall.
Andre Iguodala: 21/7/6, 1.0/2.2/0.5, 46/85%.  -Ranked #6 overall.
*Carmelo Anthony: 24/6/3, 0.4/1.1/0.2, 46/77%.  -Ranked #72 overall.

That’s right… over the last month Wallace, Smith, and Iggy are ranked #4, 5, 6 overall, while ‘melo is chillin at #72! The secret is certainly out on the trio, but Anthony may still be drafted ahead of all of them next year.  They may not be first round material quite yet, but I’d be more confident drafting Iguodala or Smith (and Wallace if not for the injury risk) over Carmelo Anthony.  Imagine landing all three Mad Black Swingmen in your H2H draft next year.  It’s certainly possible. Hell, you could even throw AK-47 into the mix as a mid-round sleeper!

 

* – Does not belong

OK, now today I’m going to talk about the Raptors, but before I do I’ve got a question – related to the Raptors.  Did anyone watch the Colbert Report last night and see the video clip of the Raptors mascot, who after poking Steagle Colbeagle the Eagle, promptly walked backstage and fell on his ass?  It was hilarious.  I’m looking for that clip.  Anyone got a link?

Anyhow, on to more important matters, the one thing we’re looking for these days is minutes, and a whole bunch of them opened up in Toronto.  Andrea Bargnani is out for the regular season after an appendectomy, and Jorge Garbajosa - who was picking up a lot of Bargnani’s minutes – is done too after breaking his ankle.  Between the two of them there’s now about 53 minutes per game opening up for other guys on the roster.  Now, this is a bit of a different situation from the ones that PR discussed yesterday, where studs are sitting and so the young guys are going to get a chance.  Instead, this is a team that is getting ready for the playoffs, so these minutes are going to go exclusively to guys who can really help the team – sorry, Kris Humphries, you don’t need to apply.

Anyhow, there are a couple of tempting options here.  Let’s consider:

Morris Peterson
OK, we’ll admit that we, across the board, fell for Mo-Pete here.  I said he was a “very solid mid-round selection,” PR was “delighted” as he drafted him in the 8th round of our draft, and DM said it was “hard to see Peterson coming off the bench all season.”  But the problem is that last year, Peterson really exploded after the All-Star Break and that mostly had to do with the Raptors losing essentially all of their players to injury.  Unfortunately, this year they’ve had better luck with injuries and so Peterson has struggled for playing time – until now.  Probably.

The one thing when can learn from last year’s explosion is that when minutes and shots are available, Peterson will take them – especially from the arc.  His fascination with the long ball has really been in effect this year as over half of his shots have been from deep, and that probably won’t change much.  He’s been borderline usable this year despite his inconsistency in minutes (he’s only averaged 22 over the year).  But if he sees a bump to, say, 35 mpg, which is not at all unreasonable, he’ll be a great source of threes down the stretch.  He’s also probably more valuable than the next guy we’re going to discuss because he can provide some rebounding help.  He’s worth picking up right now for teams that need that help.

Juan Dixon
Standard disclaimer – we are all Terp graduates here at FBB and Dixon’s title run occured during my final year at UMD (DM and PR needed a little extra time, so I’ll rub that in here), so I won’t claim to be totally unbiased.  That said, I’m not sure that Dixon has much to gain from these injuries.  He’s been terrific for the Raptors since being dealt from Portland, but statistically he’s not been all that spectacular and he’s already seeing 26 mpg.  He’s never shown that he can really be a 30-35 mpg kinda guy and those are the kind of numbers he’s going to need to be effective from a fantasy standpoint.  Add in the fact that he’s a scrawny 6-3 and the guys who have been injured are 6-9 and 6-10, and I’m just not convinced that Juan is really going to benefit here.

Rasho Nesterovic
Hear me out here.  Some people are going to tell you that Joey Graham or the earlier-joked-about Kris Humpheries are going to see a bump in value, but that bump would be from “no value” to “maybe a tiny bit of value.”  Nesterovic is in the “maybe a tiny bit of value” category already and so a bump for him would put him into the “yeah, he worth a roster spot” category, if for no other reason than his blocks and center eligibility.  He could be in line for a bump in minutes up from about 20 to about 28 or 30 or so, and that would make him worth owning and possibly worht starting.  Sam Mitchell may turn to him if for no other reason than a) he can rebound and b) he’s got significant playoff experience, which is more than can be said for most of the guys on this roster.  Think of Nesterovic as a poor man’s Brian Skinner over the final few weeks, a nice source of blocks who also should help a bit on the boards.

Well yeah sometimes. Here’s a look at some significant injuries to big time players and the subsequent fantasy aftermath. Many H2H leagues enter the playoffs this week, and managers in roto leagues are doing whatever they can to make up points in any category to edge out the competition. Either way, if you’re in the mix you gotta be paying attention right now. Yes, I know your fantasy baseball draft is tomorrow, American Idol is heating up, and there’s some celebrities dancing or something, but… FOCUS!

Ray Allen: Out for the season.
You might expect #2 option Rashard Lewis to benefit from Jesus Shuttlesworth throwing in the towel, but opposing defenses will be honing in on the sharpshooter, hampering his shooting percentage (36.3% in his last 3 games). Damien Wilkins has been starting in Allen’s place and is a decent pickup.  He’ll score and tally some thefts, but not much else. Other beneficiaries include Chris Wilcox (averaging 21 and 13 in his last four), Luke Ridnour (expect an uptick across the board), and Earl Watson (particularly from behind the arc).

Paul Pierce: Being re-evaluated and considering shutting it down.
“I want to see what’s going to be better for me in the long run,” Pierce said. “I feel like I have five or six more good years. That’s what’s important to me right now.” –Boston Globe
The Truth has certainly endured a rough year and he is understandably more concerned about his career than playing out the rest of the 2006-07 season.
If/when P-Dub calls it quits, you’ll see the usual suspects (West, Rondo, Green) pick up the slack, but Gerald Green is definitely the guy you should preemptively target. We’ve thoroughly discussed the talented G-Money this year, so you know all about the upside. There is no reason to hold the youngster back any longer, so he is definitely primed for a breakout final month.  Pick him up now and he could help seal the deal on your fantasy hoops championship.

Mike Miller: Out indefinitely.
White Mike is sitting out with knee tendonitis, so don’t expect him back anytime soon.  Who benefits? Dahntay Jones and Tarence Kinsey, of course. Huh? Well it’s not like the Grizzlies are actually trying to win any more games this year.  I’d like to think that Rudy Gay and Hakim Warrick would be the ones to finish the year strong, but they’ve both been kinda sketchy lately. Nobody really stood out in last night’s game at Phoenix, so we might have to wait and see on this one.

Brad Miller: Out indefinitely.
DM predicted Miller would suck this year, and now to add injury to insult Sactown’s center is capping off his lost season with a nifty case of plantar fasciitis. With both Kenny Thomas and Miller sidelined there are big minutes to be had upfront, but don’t hold your breath for a late season breakout from either Shareef or Corliss Williamson.  SAR is in the starting lineup and can be a decent #2 center down the stretch.  Other than that, I suspect Mike Bibby will continue on his recent tear to make up for his own disappointing season.

With all of this talk (mostly by me) about focusing on a) teams with little or nothing to play for and b) a lot of games left on the schedule, I thought it might be worthwhile to discuss a team that meets both of those qualifications – the Milwaukee Bucks.  Not only are they in the thick of trying to get as many ping-pong balls as possible, and not only do they have a whopping 15 games remaining (compared with, say, 10 for Golden State), but they’ve already shut down a couple of big men and they’ve got a new head coach who’s interested in seeing what he’s got on his hands.  

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the new front line for the Bucks, where we find a couple of guys who had no business being even discussed for the last few months, but all of a sudden could be playing decent roles over the last few weeks of the season.  This is going to be a bit of a theme here over the last few weeks as games start needing to be filled and quasi-injuries dominate the fantasy landscape.   Eventually we’ll get down to just one-game fillers but for now we can focus on guys that will possibly be effective for long stretches:

Brian Skinner, C
After plugging along in fantasy obscurity for the majority of the year, all of a sudden down goes Bogut and Villanueva and all of a sudden Skinner has gotten 44 and 34 minutes in the last two games.  Combine those minutes with his qualification at center and we’ve got a legitimate fantasy option on our hands.  Skinner has pretty much establised himself as a no-score, decent-board kinda guy who will at least contribute in blocks.  That doesn’t sound great, but for example, when I look at the guys available in my league right now and sort them by rebound numbers over the last month, I see Joe Smith and Jeff Foster at the top of the list, followed by guys like Chuck Hayes, Antonio McDyess, and Brendan Haywood.  Skinner may not be a better player than any of them, but he will see more consistent minutes and – don’t forget – he’s got 15 games remaining.

Skinner is a good bet for 8 or 9 boards and maybe 1.5 blocks over the last few weeks of the year and for teams that are looking to move in those areas, he’s a nice pickup, particularly if you’ve got games to fill at C.  He’s still no great shakes, but as the season winds down he could be the difference between first and second place for some teams.

Ersan Ilyasova, F
Who?  Well, how about a little refresher: Ilyasova is just 19 – probably – and despite being drafted in ‘05 is playing in the NBA for the first time after spending most of last year in the D-League.  I say “probably” because it’s been contested that he was actually born in 1984, but FIBA believes that Ilyasova is really 19, and that’s good enough for me.  He’s had a couple of spot starts and even got 22 mpg in January (who knew?) and seems to be content to hang out around the 3-point line, which is where over 40% of his shots come from. 

Still, you may have noticed that Ilyasova started yesterday and knocked down five threes on his way to 21 points, which is impressive, but I’m not exactly sold.  Despite the hot shooting outside he was only 2-9 from inside the arc and that doesn’t really bode well for a guy who’s 6-9 and should be doing most of his damage inside.  I think you’d be able to get the same kind of 3-point production out of, say, Brent Barry or Linas Kleiza as you will out of Ilyasova going forward.  Now, if Michael Redd or Charlie Bell shuts it down, we may have a different story on our hands, but for now I’d still hold off.

We’re in the thick of March Madness and Fantasy Baseball drafts are happening this week, but don’t ignore your NBA obligations.  Here’s a look at week 3/26-4/1:

Five Games: Memphis.

Four Games: Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Indiana, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New York, Orlando, Phoenix, San Antonio, Seattle, Toronto, Utah, Washington.

Three Games: Atlanta, Charlotte, Golden State, LA Lakers, LA Clippers, New Jersey, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Portland.

Two Games: Sacramento.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Chris Wilcox, FC: In the two games that Ray Allen has missed, Wilcox has erupted for 43 points and 34 rebounds.  It looks like he’s finally starting to live up to the hopes of Terrapin Nation.  This may be his fifth season in the NBA, but Wilcox is only 24 years old and still has room for improvement.  At 6’10 he should definitely be averaging more than 0.5 blocks a game, but his career 53% shooting is legit.  With just a few more mpg and some inspired play, Wilcox will regularly post double doubles as he continues to develop.  He’s got four games coming up, so get him in your lineups.

Chucky Atkins, PG: The veteran journeyman has put together a nifty little season for the dreadful Grizzlies.  Regular starter Damon Stoudamire is out again with a hurting knee, and Chucky has been a decent fill-in posting 16/2/5 with 2 threes and 2.3 steals over his last three games.  He can catch fire at times (see January 24th @ Utah where he dropped 29/4/15 and 6 treys), and with Memphis tipping off FIVE times this week he’s a great guy to plug in.

Hakim Warrick, F: Another Grizzly who’ll be seeing plenty of action this week, Warrick is back in Memphis’ starting lineup and getting big minutes.  The second-year man out of Syracuse has shown significant progress, especially in his shooting percentages (52/78% this season).  He’ll contribute across the board without hurting you anywhere, and with five games on the schedule the Helicopter is a safe bet.

Nate Robinson, G: The Dunkin’ Munchkin’ can leap higher than most little people, and he’s got serious range too (as evidenced by his 8 for 9 from the arc on Thursday).  Quentin Richardson has missed the last couple weeks with a sore back and Jamal Crawford is out for the season, so Lil’ Nate should see plenty of minutes going forward. He can score and drain some treys, but don’t expect too many assists as he hasn’t dished more than 4 in a game all year long (damn, isn’t he supposed to be a PG). Also, if Steve Francis’s knees were to give out Robinson would be primed for a serious breakout.  The Knicks play four times this week, so feel free to plug him in.

Jorge Garbajosa, FC: The 29-year-old rookie has started 59 games for the Raptors this season but is only averaging 28 minutes per game.  However, fellow rookie big man Andrea Bargnani underwent successful appendectomy surgery on Wednesday and will be at least a couple weeks.  This opens up the door for the Garbage Man to finish the regular season with a bang.  Garbo has averaged 33 minutes a night in his last 5 games, and went off for a season high 22 points while connecting on 5 of 9 from downtown.  With four games on tap, those treys from the center slot could be the difference in your H2H matchup this week.

This just in: DM’s home computer, previously out of action with a busted something or other, as been cleared to retun to play as early as this weekend.  DM has suggested that he might hold off until Monday, citing “social life” concerns, which we all know is a big fat lie.  Regardless, we should be back on schedule next week.

Well, that was fun, huh?  Not only is my bracket totally busted, but the guy I was gonna talk about today (Kevin Durant) isn’t even playing anymore.  That’s OK – I’ve still got a couple of guys to talk up, including my favorite local player:

Roy Hibbert, C, Georgetown
I know, I know, the guy everyone’s drooling about is Jeff Green, but I actually am more of a fan of Hibbert when it comes to fantasy potential for his rookie year.  In fact, I’ll even go as far as saying that while Greg Oden will probably cost you a 3rd or 4th round pick (we can discuss that later), Hibbert can probably be had as late as the 9th or 10th round but be 70% as effective as Oden during the year.

So what’s to like about Hibbert?  Well obviously the big one is his size – he’s a big-time shot blocker, a constant presence in the post, and is a fantastic offensive rebounder.  But the thing that I liked most about Hibbert, especially watching him the first weekend, is his basketball IQ.  It doesn’t necessarily show up in the stats, but the Hoyas run a fair amount of their offense through Hibbert, bringing him out to the high post and letting him distribute, where he’s shown he can be a pretty effective passer finding the wings dispite being double-teamed.  He’s also pretty selective from the floor, which is part of why he’s shooting an absurd 67% from the field this year.

The down-side to Hibbert is one that you’ll generally find with guys that are 7-2 – he’s just not all that athletic.  He lumbers a bit, struggles to get boards that take odd bounces, and tends to rely on his size more than you’d like.  What’s really going to make or break Hibbert in the draft is to see how he does against other NBA-quality bigs, which might not happen unless he meets Florida in the Final Four or Ohio State in the Finals.

Acie Law IV, PG, Texas A&M
I’m not the least bit sold on Law right now.  I’m always – ALWAYS – skeptical of guys who are just so-so for three years and then suddenly break out (Hilton Armstrong, I’m looking at you).  His shooting this year has come out of nowhere – his 3PT% has jumped from 33% his junior year to 46% this year.  I just can’t get past the thought that this might be a bit of a fluke year for Law.

That said, he’s a nice passer, and apparently he’s strong and has a decent first step.  Also, of course, here at FBB we love us some point guards and Law is one of those.  Plus, everyone seems to love how clutch he is, and intangibles go pretty far for guards on draft day – just ask Mateen Cleaves and Juan Dixon.  The other issue for Law is, I don’t see anybody out there right now desperate for a scoring point guard.  It’s much more likely he ends up in a backup role on a team like the Pistons or Heat rather than a starter his first year.  If he takes Texas A&M into the Final Four, maybe I’ll turn around on Law, but if not I think I’ll still hold off.

Tyler Hansborough, PF, UNC
And then, there’s this thing.  Hansorough is like a mystery wrapped in an enigma.  On the one hand he’s completely dominant in college.  On the other hand, he’s not too tall, not too athletic, and has an incredible group of teammates around him.  Back to that first hand, he hasn’t improved at all from last year to this.  But as the second hand will tell you, how much better was he gonna get?

The one thing that you can say about Hansborough is that he is what he is.  If that doesn’t sound too promising, it’s not meant to.  It pretty surprising when a guy doesn’t improve at ALL from one season to the next, especially when that guy is going from a freshman to a sophomore in college (keep in mind that even though he’s only a sophomore, he’s already 21 years old).  Even if he does get minutes in the NBA, his defensive numbers are bad enough that he’s REALLY going to have to make up for it in other areas.   Hansborough isn’t going to prove anyone right or wrong over the next weekend or two.  That’s not going to happen until he gets into the NBA.  But what you can look for now is to see how he deals with NBA-quality defenders, particularly if he ends up meeting the aforementioned Roy Hibbert in the Elite Eight.

Due to some computer issues mentioned below, I wasn’t able to do a TR on Friday, so here’s a brief look at some players picked up lately. Except more of these types of columns in the season’s final month, since waiver wire scrounging is about all that’s to be done now.

Randy Foye
Sunday’s Timberwolves game was a pretty good encapsulation of how the team’s PG situation has been all year. After a couple of very solid games off the bench in which he averaged 18/3.5/4.5 with 1 3 and 1 steal in 32.5 mpg, he earned his spot in the starting lineup. So then what happens? He puts up a 3/2/1 stinker in 15 minutes while Mike James scores 18 with 11 assists in 32 minutes off the bench. Both players have been better when coming off the bench, but neither have really been that great at any point in the season. The Wolves aren’t going to drop out of the playoff race until at least the last few games of the season, so there won’t be any “playing for the future.” Coach Randy Wittman will just be looking for the best lineup that can help his team earn the honor of getting humiliated by the Mavs on four consecutive evenings in April. As we near the end of Foye’s rookie year, it’s hard to be too impressed. The team was hoping he’d be a legitimate star, but Foye’s no youngster, at least in NBA terms. He’ll be 24 when next season starts; he’s the same age as Ben Gordon, for example. Gordon put up 15.1 ppg in less than 25 mpg in his rookie year; Foye’s working on 9.2 ppg in just about 22 mpg. The two players are similarly built with similar games, so I’m just throwing that out there. If he’s really the reason why the Wolves didn’t go after Allen Iverson, or some other stars … well, just another reason Forbes might have been a bit off.

Tim Thomas
At this point in the season teams start to make pickups based on needs, and Thomas is so locked in from 3-point land right now that he makes a fine pick up. He’s averaging a very solid 30 mpg so far in March and has been under 25 minutes just once since the all-star break. He’s knocked down 17 3s in his last five games after an uncharacteristic cold spell which saw him hit just a single three-ball in the previous four contests. That sort of hot and cold production obviously makes him a risky play, especially because, as always, he gives you little else besides those 3s. But in a tight race in roto leagues, he can be a difference maker.

Jorge Garbajosa
Last week I mentioned that it might be time to give Garbajosa a shot based on his unique ability to fill games at center and help out in 3s. But in the two games since his 20-point, 4-3s performance he’s been back to the same Garbajosa that we’ve seen for most games since the all-star break. There’s still slight reason for encouragement, and that’s because the minutes seem to be there, but he certainly has a tenuous grasp on those right now. He played nearly 36 minutes on Friday, his most in almost a month, but was back down to 25 on Sunday. That was in a blow out to the Knicks, though, and only Chris Bosh and T.J. Ford saw more than 26 minutes for the Raps in that game, so it’s hard to tell too much there. The fact remains that Garbajosa’s had exactly one productive game in his past 8, so if you have him and he doesn’t come through next time out, it’s probably time to forget about him until next year.

Ime Udoka
Certainly one of the feel-good stories of the year, here. An undrafted free agent who probably would have been content to become a 10-day contract guy for a few years, instead he’s started every game this season for the Blazers. That doesn’t mean he’s had much in the way of fantasy value, as his 9.0/3.8/1.5 line will attest, but in the past few weeks he’s been unconscious from long range, connecting on 2.4 per game in March while shooting an absurd 68%. He’s actually playing fewer minutes in March than any other month this season, but with all those 3s finding their way through the net he’s fantasy relevant for the first time. Still, when you’re fantasy upside is that of Bruce Bowen, it’s hard to get too excited. As we saw with Luke Walton earlier this year, those great three-point percentages that come out of nowhere have a way of balancing out. He’s a legit #73 on the 15-day rater, so if you really want to give him a shot you can, but it certainly won’t get better.

Gerald Green
TR regular Green has been playing solid ball lately but this pick up was a spec pickup hoping that Paul Pierce might actually shut it down like he talked about a few days ago. If shutting it down means scoring 30 and beating the Spurs, then maybe more players should shut it down. It’s quite possible that Pierce sits out the last few games of the season, but I wouldn’t be too worried about him until that second week of April. Which means you probably don’t have to worry about Green until then. He’s still capable of exploding for a big game, but promises to be inconsistent. The big question with Green going forward is whether he can be a high percentage shooter or if he’s just another 42% gunner. The 48% he shot during his rookie year looked nice, but considering it was on not even 150 total shots we knew better than to expect that was his standard. His lack of boards for a player of his size is also a bit disappointing. He’s got many of the skills necessary to be an asset to both the Celtics and fantasy players, but he still needs plenty of consolidation. He won’t turn 22 until the middle of next season, so there’s still time.

Channing Frye
Man. So my home computer is fucked. I’ve been without it since Thursday morning. So Friday as I was leaving work, I knew it’d be my last time to do fantasy-related stuff until Monday morning. (Not the best situation to be in when trying to hold on to a tenuous lead and prepare for multiple fantasy baseball drafts.) I thought about picking up Channing Frye but for whatever reason I didn’t. Now I have no Frye, but still have goddamn Stromile Swift on my team. Fuck. Might Frye try to erase a season of disappointment in the final month? Back-to-back 20-point games while averaging 42 mpg is a damn fine way to start. Frye hasn’t been very productive at all this season, but just as important has been his rapid slip down the totem pole in Manhattan. But the Knicks are a depleted squad right now and need players who can score, especially with Eddy Curry going through his most prolonged slump in a while. The Jerome James/Malik Rose experiment at PF seems to be over and Frye looks to be the main until/if Quentin Richardson can go again. Frye’s had plenty of chances in the starting lineup this year, but without David Lee around to steal minutes, and without big scorers Jamal Crawford and Richardson, he not only has an opportunity but the Knicks actually need him to come through. I like the LaMarcus Aldridge comparison I made recently, because both a tall, center-eligibles who like taking jump shots and rarely get to the line. Frye blocks considerably fewer shots, but as long as he gets 17 attempts per game – he thrives on consistent looks – he’s a good bet.

This is probably the last NUT!20 of the year, and right now we’re going to see some major shakeups due to the possibility of studs sitting late in the year, as well as some guys who we’re looking at to be key in the clutch:

1. Kobe Bryant, SG, LAL
Surprise!  Bryant’s 65 the other night was huge, but keep in mind, he’s been on fire since the All-Star Break.  33.6/6.5/6.2 with 2.1 threes, 847% from the line on 11.3 attempts per game, and 1.7 steals, Bryant could very well average over 35 ppg over the next few weeks as he gets into playoff mode, and for that reason he’ll get the number one spot.  (It’s worth noting that I put him here before his 50-point outburst last night.  It’s also worth nothing what I said in December’s NUT!20: “If there’s one guy who’s going to go bonkers for a 15-game stretch in February and March, that guy is right here.”)

2. Gilbert Arenas, PG, WAS
Double surprise!  The Hibachi is getting fired back up.  After a completely disastrous February, Gilbert got his clavicle or whatever popped back into place and now he’s back to his old self.  He’s knocking down threes, collecting steals, and best of all he’s playing 18 more games this year, each of which will be meaningful as they jockey for playoff position.

3. LeBron James, SF, CLE
Heeeere we go.  Finally.  32.4/8.1/6.9 with 2 threes, 1.8 steals and a block in March.  LeBron said duriing the All-Star Break that he knew it was time to turn it on – and it looks like he is.

4. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, DAL
Ho-hum, just another fantastic season for the Diggler.  He’s been in a bit of a shooting slump lately, but he’s at #5 of the TPR and he’s a top-5 pick again next year.

5. Kevin Garnett, F, MIN
As if we’re going to forget how you sat out the last six games last year, Kevin.  With the Wolves struggling to stay in the playoff race, we’re going to keep a close eye on Garnett this year, and that’s why he sits this low.

6. Shawn Marion, F, PHO
Marion is very clearly still hurting.  The bruised hand that forced him out of action for 2 games a few weeks ago is apparently still bothering his shot, leading to a very-low 11.7 ppg in March.  As the gap between the Suns and Dallas widens, Marion may sit it down for a few games at the end of the year.  Even if he doesn’t, the hand is still a major concern.

7. Allen Iverson, G, DEN
The Nuggets are clearly starting to get things figured out, and Iverson’s running the show, averaging 11.3 assists drung their recent 4-game streak.  He’s also playing 18 more games this year and is locked in a playoff position race, giving him a nice bump in value.

8. Steve Nash, PG, PHO
The Suns may be struggling after their classic against the Mavs last week, but Nash seems to be just fine.  The threes aren’t there as much as they were early in the year, but eveything else looks a-ok.

9. Yao Ming, C, HOU
He’s still a little rusty, but he’s going to be working his way back into playing shape for the playoffs which means plenty of minutes for Yao over the final month.

10. Ray Allen, SG, SEA
Allen’s return to action has been one of the most unlikely things we’ve seen in the past month.  He’s not a free agent, his team isn’t very good, could it be that Jesus Shuttlesworth is in it for the love of the game?

11. Jason Kidd, PG, NJN
Solid.  The Nets are fighting for playoff position as well (as in, not being in position to play Detroit in the first round), so he’ll be going full steam.

12. Elton Brand, PF, LAC
Brand hasn’t ever shut it down early before, so there’s no reason to think he’ll do so now, despite the disappointing season for the Clips.

13. Rashard Lewis, F, SEA
He’s got one month left to convince suitors he’s worth a max deal in the offseason.  As a Rashard owner myself, I’m rooting for him.  Prediction – he’s a Bobcat next season.

14. Amare Stoudamire, C, PHO
Is he a first-rounder next year?  Guys are supposed to be even better the second year after surgery, so it’s possible he’ll be even better next time around, and this season hasn’t been shabby at all (20 on the APR).

15. Carmelo Anthony, F, DEN
The positives are the same as his teammates – he’s got a bunch of games left, they’re in a playoff push and the team is finally clicking.  He’s also 19 on the APR this year.  The scoring is down with AI around but everything else is fine.

16. Marcus Camby, C, DEN
The numbers don’t lie – he’s been a top 10 player over the past month, AND he’s got 18 games left, so even if he misses a few here or there, he’s still playing around the league average for the rest of the year.

17. Andre Iguodala, GF, PHI
Iggy’s been a Top-15 player ever since the Iverson deal, and he’s going to be one of the toughest players to peg in next year’s draft.

18. Josh Smith, F, ATL
Down goes Joe Johnson, up goes Smith: 20.7/9.3 with 3.3 bpg in March.  He’s like Andrei Kirilenko except he plays well.

19. Pau Gasol, F/C
Good: He’s a center and a top-20 guy.  Bad: His team is in the race for Oden/Durant and they only have 14 games remaining.

20.  As I do pretty often, I’ll leave #20 to you guys.  Who belongs on this list that isn’t here?