A while back some folks asked about our thoughts on some of the best keepers for next season, so today we’ll try to address that. It’s not the easiest subject to cover, for a variety of reasons. The majority of leagues aren’t keeper leagues, for one. Most keeper leagues probably have different rules, for another. If the goal is to simply keep the best players, then we probably can’t be too much help. It doesn’t take much of a genius to figure out that guys like Gilbert Arenas, Shawn Marion, Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki are some decent guys to go after. It gets more interesting if your keepers are based on where they were drafted, or some sort of value like in auction leagues. So here we’ll focus on players like that – not top-tier superstars, but players who should see a serious spike in value next season. So even if you’re not in a keeper league, consider this an early look at some sleepers for next season. Keep your eye on these guys over the last month and a half so you can see what they are like. The key to finding a breakout player is to find that guy with the right combination of an increase in ability and opportunity, so here are four guys to target.

Brandon Roy

An early season injury kept him from building much momentum until a few months into the season, but Roy has emerged as the best in this year’s rookie class. We all thought he was a pretty polished player coming out of college and he’s lived up to that, and he’ll be 23 next season, so it’s not like he’s that young. But the important thing is that he’s already established himself as Portland’s go-to guy. OK, Zach Randolph may technically be the go-to guy, and he takes 6.5 more FGA per game than Roy. But when it gets down to crunch time it’s often Roy who has the ball and is counted on to make the big play. This bodes well for his future. It also bodes well for him that Portland seems to like and trust him, and he won’t be anything worse than the #2 option on the team next year. It’s not completely out of the realm of possibilities that Randolph gets moved and in that case Roy becomes the clear #1, unless the Blazers get a superstar back. His fantasy game is well-rounded without any real standout categories, keeping him down at #75 on the APR for the year. But his scoring has increased each month and he’s finally starting to find the range from three-point land, too. He’s averaging about 1 3pg over the past two months after hitting barely any at all early on. The most important thing with Roy going forward is that he stays healthy. A player like him could make a very solid 4^th/5^th round choice as long as he can be counted on for 75 games or so per season.

Kevin Martin

Huh? Shouldn’t you generally avoid players coming off career years. Yes, but games like last night’s have me thinking that there are more good things in store for K-Mart next season. Even if the Kings manage to sneak into the playoffs this year, they are going nowhere fast. This is a team in need of a facelift and the Maloofs and Geoff Petrie haven’t been afraid to shake things up in the past. It’s clear that Martin is the team’s best offensive weapon at this point, but there are still games when he’s a complete non-factor because Mike Bibby and Ron Artest get into a pissing contest as to who can take more horrible shots. Logic dictates that one of them has to go next season, and that can only mean good things for Martin. Now I’ll admit that I have the biggest man-crush in the world on Martin since I drafted him in the 8^th round this year, so you’ll never hear me say anything bad about him. He was even my #1 MySpace friend for a long spell there, before I felt that Gilbert should take that honor. AN HONOR HE DOESN’T SEEM TO WANT MUCH THESE DAYS. Sorry. Anyway, as someone who has watched more Kings games than most non Sacramentonites this year, don’t doubt Martin’s abilities. Seriously. He currently sits at #20 on the rater and there’s simply no way he’s getting taken in the second round next year, no matter what. So that means he may very well be undervalued again.

David Lee

Is it possible Lee comes off the bench again next season? Sure, he’s thrived in that role and doesn’t seem to mind it all that much. But you have to think that he’ll get a shot to be the starting PF for the Knicks next season. It’s the one position on the team where there’s no veteran making tons of money waiting ahead of him. It looked like Channing Frye was the 4 of the future, but Lee has clearly established himself as the superior talent and Frye may find himself as trade bait in the off season. Lee’s 61% from the field is one of the most amazing stats of the season and after he shot 60% last year, it can’t be considered much of a fluke. When the majority of shots are follows and tips, it’s easier to keep that percentage up. With just 31 mpg Lee is one of the top rebounders in the league – if that number increases to 37-38 mpg, he could certainly battle Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard for the league lead in boards. And if he develops more of a scoring touch or grabs more steals and blocks with more PT … watch out.

LaMarcus Aldridge

I sure write a lot about Aldridge for a kid who hasn’t really done all that much so far in the NBA. But I just like his game too much, and think he could be putting up very nice numbers, very soon. First I’ll give the caveat that he could have a little Channing Frye thing going on, where he’s a young big who looks good in his rookie year, gets most of his points from outside jump shots, and doesn’t really develop from there. Aldridge has at least shown some ability to block shots and with a decent 35 mpg he can probably be counted on for 1.5 per game. I’ve discussed his foul problems, but that’s something that he can very easily work on over the summer. Of course, it’s the expected increase in PT that makes him an attractive option for next year. Jamaal Magloire will be out of the picture for sure, leaving the always-fragile, always-kinda-crappy Joel Przybilla as the other big man in Portland. The Blazers have made good progress this year and should let Roy and Aldridge start from the outset next season. Aldridge won’t be a star right away, but has all the tools to develop into a 15/10/1.5 center, which is something we could all use.