We’ve certainly had our share of breakouts this year from the 2005 rookie class - late picks like Jarrett Jack, Monta Ellis and David Lee have all gone from being fantasy irrelevant last year to bona-fide starters this year.  But there’s also been a disturbing trend going on with some of the names at the top of the draft list - they just haven’t improved at all.  Let’s go through the big names and try to figure out if they’ve just plateaued - or maxed out.

Andrew Bogut
Everything was supposed to fall into place this season for Bogut - with Jamaal Magloire out of the way, not only was Bogut going to see more minutes, but he was going to get to play them at his natural center position, rather than at power forward.  The minutes have certainly come - he’s up to 34 from 28 in his rookie year, but the performance hasn’t improved much at all.  He’s had slight bumps in his per-minute points, FG% and boards, but his blocks have gone from bad to worse (0.8 to 0.6), and same with his FT% (63% to 57%).

So what’s going on?  Part of the problem is that the Bucks are dominated by jump-shooters, and Bogut isn’t one of them.  Michael Redd, Mo Williams, Ruben Patterson, Earl Boykins, Charlie Villanueva and Charlie Bell ALL shoot more per-game than Bogut (granted, injuries have inflated those averages, but it’s telling that six guys shoot it more than him).  The Bucks’ run-and-gun style doesn’t leave much room for Bogut to excel, despite his strong FG% (54%) and offensive rebounding abilities (2.6 per game is 24th in the league).

The other part of the problem is that Bogut doesn’t seem to excel at anything, really, defensively.  His defensive rebounding is solid but he’s completely allergic to blocking shots - which is a real problem for a center.  He was OK in college, blocking 1.3 per game as a freshman and then improving to 1.9 as a sophomore, but since coming to the NBA he just hasn’t been able to get his hands on the ball.  Bogut has been a very dissapointing 89 on the APR and is looking like no better than a mid-round #2 center for next year.  It might be that a change of scenery is what Bogut needs most, to a more plodding, half-court system.

Raymond Felton
Just like with Bogut, everything seemed like it was falling into place for Felton this year.  After a spectacular second half of 2006, Felton was set to play a major role for the Bobcats this year, and once Brevin Knight got hurt, it looked like Felton would be a major breakout candidate this year.  Again, just like Bogut, the minutes have come in a major way - his 37 per game (up from 30 last year) are 27th in the league.  Unfortunately (boy, this sounds familiar), the performance just hasn’t improved at all.  He’s slightly down per-minute in points and boards, and essentially stagnant in assists.  This doesn’t sound that bad, but consider that we’re comparing this to his full-year performance last year, not just his spectacular second half that was the basis for his predicted success this year and 4th/5th round draft position.

So what’s going on?  For one thing, his shooting is as bad as it’s ever been - acutally, it’s worse, at 38% for the yaer down from 39% last year.  I think part of that can be blamed on Knight’s absence, as Felton was allowed to create more off the ball last year and Knight - one of the best passers in the league - was able to set him up for more quality shots.  With Knight out, there’s not a single guy on the roster who is much of a passer, and that meant that if Felton was going to get shots he was going to have to create them himself - good luck getting the ball back once you dish it to Matt Carroll, Adam Morrison or Gerald Wallace.

Felton’s style last year really reminded me of Baron Davis - he’s a real risk-taker on offense and sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.  But he’s just not the scorer that Baron is, and on the plus side he’s been able to improve his FT% to a somewhat respectable 78% this year, taking him out of Baron territory there at least for the time being.  Now, I think I can see Felton being a little more like a slightly different risk-taker - Jason Williams.  White Chocolate has never been a major scorer and his jump shot has always been terrifying (for his coaches, not the other team), but he’s still contribute in threes, assists, and steals.  If Felton was going to break out, it was going to be this year, but we might just have to settle for him being a solid if unspectacular mid-round pick.

Channing Frye
Frye might be the current leader in the race for “most times mentioned in Transaction Reaction,” and it’s no surprise that he was just dropped yesterday in our league.  We had high hopes for Frye heading into the season - he was finally getting out of the shadow of Larry Brown, he was a favorite of Isaiah Thomas (but then, isn’t everyone on the Knicks?), and he had put together such a solid first-year campaign that it was reasonable to think he would back it up with another solid effort as a sophomore.

So what happened?  Well, for one thing, Eddy Curry happened.  Curry went from playing just 25 mpg last year to almost 35 mpg this year - despite drops in his rebound rate and blocked shots, but that’s another matter.  With Curry taking up most of the minutes in the middle, Frye was going to have to log most of his time at PF - but then, David Lee happened.  Lee’s forced his way onto the court - thanks to his incredible rebounding ability, which counter Curry nicely - to the tune of 30 mpg.  So Frye, who is close the same player this year as he was last year, just isn’t seeing the opportunity we all thought he would.

Still, some blame has to go Frye’s way.  His FG% has taken a hit from last year (44% from 47.7%), and he’s not getting to the line at all, meaning he’s settling for more jumpers and not playing inside.  This is also leading fewer rebounds, and his offensive boards have been nearly cut in half (1.3 down from 2.1 per game).  Despite handling the ball more outside the lane, he’s still a horrendous passer, with just 0.8 per game.  Still, he’s probably a nice late-round risk for next year because you just never know if Eddy Curry will play as much next year as he does this year, and those minutes will probably go to Frye if they go to anyone.