NCAA Tournament Prospect Guide - Week One

Listen, we’re not stupid.  We’re well aware that nobody is paying attention to the NBA right now - especially the Washington Wizards.  So if you’re going to spend all of your time watching the NCAA Tournament, that’s fine with us.  But why not at least make it somewhat productive?  Each week for the next few weeks I’m going to pick out a couple of guys who are worth a cursory look so that you’re not going into drafts next year drafting guys you’ve never seen.

This week I’m going to feature a couple of guys that quite possibly won’t be playing next week.  These guys aren’t the cream of the crop but they’re legit NBA prospects, likely to go in the first round, and in a draft this deep, they are probably comparable in talent to late-lottery guys from last year.  Anyhow:

Nick Fazekas, F/C, Nevada
Friday, 2:50 pm vs. Creighton
One thing that I always like is guys who have gotten it done for three or four years in a row - like Paul Millsap last year, for example.  Fazekas is one of those guys.  He was a strong role player for the 2004 Nevada team that made a nice showing in the tourney, and has led Nevada back to the Big Dance every year since.  He’s been completely unconcsious from the field this year, shooting 58% from the field, and that’s largely due to the fact that he’s bulked up to the point that he can play more on the inside.  The percentage isn’t a fluke, though - he’s topped 50% all four years.  He’s also been deadly from the arc this year (46%) and that’s due to better shot selection - he’s cut his 3PA in half compared to last year.

What all the NBA scouts are going to be looking for - and you should be looking too - is to see if he’s bulked up enough to bang inside against the big boys.  At 6-11 his blocks numbers could be better, and though he rebounds very well (double digits 2 years running) that could be due to his unusual size for a mid-major guy.  He doesn’t really have a marquee matchup against Creighton, so he might need to lead his team into the second round and hope to match up against Memphis, with their strong inside defense, to really answer some questions.

Marcus Williams, G/F, Arizona
Friday, 7:20 pm vs. Perdue
Williams has everything that scouts love - length, hops, hustle, it’s all there.  What I’m not sure is necessarily there is his basketball ability.  One thing that’s always a major red flag for me is swingmen or guards who can’t shoot free throws, and right now Williams is at 69% for the season, down from 73% last year.  He’s also lost his shot from the arc, going just 4-18 over the last six games for Arizona, which has brought his average to under 30% for the year (he shot 44% from the arc a year ago).  Without the ball, the results are also mixed.  He looks to be a pretty strong rebounger, for his size and position, but his length has only brought his 1.1 steals and .8 blocks on the year.

As you can tell, I’m pretty cool on Williams heading into the tourney.  He’s supposed to be a talented swingman but the ball swings more often to the other team (2.7 TO) than it does to his teammates (2.2 Ast).  Tweeners like Williams, unlike big men like Fazekas, need to be really special to generate any sort on major PT in the NBA.  Just ask Rudy Gay, Ronnie Brewer, Rodney Carney or Shawne Williams, all of whom have struggled for minutes for some or all of their rookie campaigns.  If Williams leads Arizona past Florida into the Sweet 16, he might be that special - but that’s a huge if.

Dominic James, PG, Marquette
Thursday, 7:20 pm vs. Michigan State
On the one hand, you’ve got TJ Ford.  On the other hand, you’ve got every other point guard from the past few years who’s really short, really quick, and doesn’t have a great outside shot.  The impression that I’m getting is that the only reason James is getting major love from scouts is because this draft doesn’t have many PG’s.  The kid has no shooting ability whatsoever - from the floor, the arc, or the stripe.  As we’ve seen from Rajon Rondo, rookies don’t just suddenly find their shots once they come to the NBA.

Still, there’s gotta be a reason folks are all in a tizzy about this kid.  Chad Ford has him at 30, Draft Express has him going around 22, despite this being the deepest draft in memory and his seeming lack of talent.  The fact that he’s one of the few PG’s in the draft means that maybe someone will reach him because they’re desperate for a PG, so maybe he’ll walk into a bunch of minutes his rookie year.  Keep an eye on him this weekend and see if there’s anything behind the hype.

01
Terrance
March 13th, 2007 2:45 pm

ok…two days and no post, ill bite.

you guys are maryland alumni, so how far do you have them going this year? Its impossible for me to be unbiased, Im from kansas. I have the jayhawks making it out of the first round, anything else is a bonus :) . but i have kansas beating texas in the finals…yeah….big 12 bias as well, i lose every year :)

to go with yr column, i hear that kevin durant kid is pretty good :) . ausgustin and abrahms get no love with durant overshadowing them.

how about brook lopez? he may not be around next season, hes only a freshman, but still capable of making the jump to the league

02
Jeremy
March 13th, 2007 3:20 pm

Durant is amazing. I’ve watched hardly any College Ball this year but caught part of the Big12 Championship game and he is just so quick and versitile that he reminds me as a cross between KG and Dirk…scary.

03
bv
March 13th, 2007 6:30 pm

oh, the terps…i dunno. i just don’t have much trust in these guys, they’ve already peaked for the year … i think they’ve got just as good a chance of losing in the first roudn as they do of getting to the final four, it just depends on if they get hot.

yeah, durant is a beast, i figure we’ll chat him up plenty over the summer, so this column was more aimed at lesser-known guys that you don’t get to see much of. I see him more like T-Mac than Dirk though.

As for lopez … not impressed. yet. i hope he stays in school for a year or two longer.

04
Jeremy
March 13th, 2007 7:00 pm

Yeah, I guess T-Mac is a pretty good comparison, but he’s even taller and longer.

Anyways, I’m fed up for waiting on news about Joe Johnson. Is he shut down for the season? I can’t find any information confirming this. And, if so, who do you pick up: Richard Jefferson or Rudy Gay. Thanks.

05
bv
March 13th, 2007 7:10 pm

i don’t have anything new on johnson…but i don’t know if you can necessarily drop him. as for pickups, i’d grab rudy now and wait until you head some good news on jefferson, then swap out for him.

06
MASE
March 14th, 2007 2:56 am

I have to admit I know nothing about the NCAA. I fill in my brackets like it’s the lottery ticket.

What I do know is a lot of us are happy last night cuz Lamarcus Aldridge went crazy! Woohoo!

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