Diary of a Mad Black Swingman

In my preseason H2H draft strategy I urged folks to target point guards and big men while avoiding the majority of one-dimensional G/Fs.  The idea was to build a team that would dominate in 4 or 5 categories while remaining competitive in the rest… thus giving you the best chance to win every week, no matter who your opponent.  I discouraged drafting SGs and SFs like Rip Hamilton and even Carmelo Anthony, but made an exception for multi-category contributors such as Gerald Wallace, Andre Iguodala, and Josh Smith. The versatility of these swingmen was too obvious to ignore.  In most leagues ‘Melo was typically drafted in the second or third round. He’s definitely lived up to those expectations (2nd in the league with 29ppg), but it appears he’s reached a fantasy ceiling because of his limitations in other categories (0.5 threes, 0.3 blocks, etc).
When you look at players like G-Force, Iggy, and J-Smoove… the sky is the limit.  Not only are they more valuable in H2H leagues, but they ultimately have higher upside than Carmelo Anthony in all leagues. In other words, all three players (and other players in their mold) could potentially be future first round draft picks due to their “Matrix-like” ability. Here are some numbers to chew on:

2006-07 Season:
Andre Iguodala: 18/6/6, 0.7 3s, 2 stls, 0.4 blks, 45/83%.  -Ranked #17 overall.
Josh Smith: 16/8/3, 0.6 3s, 1.4 stls, 2.9 blks, 44/69%.  -Ranked #24 overall.
*Carmelo Anthony: 29/6/4, 0.5 3s, 1.2 stls, 0.3 blks, 48/80%.  -Ranked #25 overall.
Gerald Wallace:17/7/3, 0.5 3s, 1.8 stls, 1 blk, 50/69%.  -Ranked #42 overall.

Keep in mind the young trio each had obstacles to overcome this season. Iggy didn’t truly breakout until after AI and C-Webb were traded, while Smith and Wallace have struggled at times with injuries.  Yes, Carmelo had his suspension, but it did not affect his averages.  So when we look at a more recent sample, you can really see the multi-cat swingmen strutting their stuff:

Last 30 days:
Gerald Wallace:
22/8/4, 0.7/1.9/1.6, 54/76%.  -Ranked #4 overall.
Josh Smith: 20/9/4, 0.8/1.4/3.6, 47/72%.  -Ranked #5 overall.
Andre Iguodala: 21/7/6, 1.0/2.2/0.5, 46/85%.  -Ranked #6 overall.
*Carmelo Anthony: 24/6/3, 0.4/1.1/0.2, 46/77%.  -Ranked #72 overall.

That’s right… over the last month Wallace, Smith, and Iggy are ranked #4, 5, 6 overall, while ‘melo is chillin at #72! The secret is certainly out on the trio, but Anthony may still be drafted ahead of all of them next year.  They may not be first round material quite yet, but I’d be more confident drafting Iguodala or Smith (and Wallace if not for the injury risk) over Carmelo Anthony.  Imagine landing all three Mad Black Swingmen in your H2H draft next year.  It’s certainly possible. Hell, you could even throw AK-47 into the mix as a mid-round sleeper!

 

* - Does not belong

01
JM
March 29th, 2007 8:55 am

interesting article.
one thought on Carmelo.
His ranking was higher pre-Iverson (and pre-suspension) than it has been since.

As the Nuggets learn to play together better through the rest of this season, playoffs, training camp, Melo’s #’s could well return to his 1st half numbers from this year. especially his FG%, an area where he gets much of his value (and makes up for his lowish 3’s and blks).

02
Poop
March 29th, 2007 12:00 pm

Carmelo’s season this year has been like a renaissance so far. I really wanted to see that guy lead the league in scoring, but looks like the Mamba wouldn’t have it that way.

Although I think the Carmelo’s averages have dipped because of trying to gel post-Iverson trade, I think another reason his scoring has been more mid-20’s than 30ish is because of a few less possessions (4FGA & 1.5FTA to be exact) from having to share the scoring load with another bona fide scoring option on the team.

So as long as Iverson’s on the team, Carmelo ain’t gonna lead the league in scoring anytime soon and he’ll probably average closer to 25ish than 30ish which is a trickle effect to the rest of his value, effectively taking away a little of his percentages value. Of course, might all change when the AI-Melo combo starts to really vibe.

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