I love the NBA so much, I haven’t watched more than 5 minutes of college basketball this week.  Let’s take a look at week 3/19-3/25:

Four Games: Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Indiana, LA Clippers, Minnesota, New Orleans, Portland, Sacramento, Washington.

Three Games: Boston, Chicago, Golden State, Houston, LA Lakers, Memphis, Miami, New Jersey, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Antonio, Seattle, Utah.

Two Games: Milwaukee, Orlando, Toronto.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Zaza Pachulia, FC: He started the year on the right foot, but then struggled with some minor injuries and was eventually relegated to the bench for a couple months.  Zaza returned to the Hawks’ starting lineup a couple weeks ago and has really excelled on offense since Joe Johnson’s injury.  Pachulia is averaging 15/10/2 with 1.2 steals, nearly 1 block, and shooting an impressive 50/85% in his last five games.  He’s playing like a top 10 center right now, and is a must-start with four games at home this coming week (SAC, MIA, POR, DAL) where Zaza scores an average of 3 more points then he does on the road.

Tim Thomas, F: Arguably one of the laziest players in the league, Thomas is known for flashing just enough of his talent a couple times a year, to ensure a fat contract with whichever team is willing to bite.  The 6’10 swingman has disappointed just about every team and fantasy owner who’s ever counted on him to make a real difference, but he makes a very nice pickup to plug in this week.  Tim is currently in the midst of a nice little hot streak, averaging 16/4/3 with a whopping 3.2 treys and 51/86% shooting.  Get the “dog” in your lineups as the Clips tip off four times next week (@CHI, @MIL, UTA, WAS).

Larry Hughes, SG: This season, Larry Hughes has been… well, Larry Hughes.  In and out of the lineup with various injuries, erratic play and struggling to jive with his teammates, Hughes is having his worst season since 2002-03 (his first year with the Wiz).  That said, when L-Boogie is healthy he’s a valuable fantasy commodity.  Hughes has recently been starting at PG for the Cavs and posting impressive numbers, averaging 15/6/6 with 1.1 threes, 1.4 steals, and 1 block in March. His percentages can hurt you (40/68% this season), but his contributions in other cats should be enough to help propel your squad to win this week.  Cleveland is on an 8-game win streak, and will see four pretty good matchups this week (@CHA, DAL, NY, DEN).

Linas Kleiza, GF: The second-year Lithuanian expatriate (from Rockville, MD) has broken out with increased minutes in Denver this month.  “Linas the Menace” has posted 16/8/1 with a sterling 2.8 treys and 51/87% shooting over his last five games.  At 6’8, Kleiza is a strong rebounder and has really improved his long range shot (38% from the arc this season).  Don’t expect consistency, but with the Nuggets hitting the hardwood four times this week you could definitely do worse.

Ronald Murray, SG: Injury alert – Chauncey Billups pulled his groin against Phoenix on Friday night.  Flip stepped in and dropped 25 points on 12 for 16 shooting and swiped the ball 6 times.  Billups’ groin strain was apparently not unexpected, as the point guard said “it’s been coming for about two weeks, I’ve been feeling. Finally it just went…” Murray’s value will strictly be tied to however long Billups is out, but don’t be surprised if Chauncey sits out the next few games.  Flip is pretty one-dimensional but he can certainly put up some points for your team.  He’ll have plenty of opportunities with four games coming up (PHI, @HOU, @SA, @MIL).

Chris Kaman, C: A huge disappointment this season, the Kaveman is back in the Clippers’ starting lineup and has reached double-digits in three straight. He’s also swatted 8 shots in those three games. He’s a decent start with a full-schedule on tap.

Sit ‘em down:

Mo Williams, PG: “This season’s Mike James” has failed to score more than 8 points in 3 of his last 5 games and he’s 1 for 16 from long range this month.  The Bucks only play twice this week, so you should look elsewhere… perhaps Anthony Johnson, Sam Cassell, or Steve Francis would be better options.

At this point in the season it’s best just to get right to the point. So we’ll skip any sort of theme today and just take a look at all the games last night and try to hit on the big news.

Washington vs. Indiana
If not for Caron Butler’s knee injury acting up, this would have been just about the perfect game for me. At 5 p.m. or so when I went to set my lineup for the evening there was a news blurb on Yahoo about Jermaine O’Neal that featured the word “indefinitely” when referring to how long he’d be out. Apparently “indefinitely” means “about two more hours.” It was a fairly shocking return and O’Neal put up a very typical line in 29 minutes (he had five fouls). I surely would have liked that 24/7/3 with 2 blocks in my lineup, but it’s good enough to simply know that he’s back. Now, I’m not foolish enough to declare that he’s back for good, but if you’re in a daily lineup league you obviously have to get him in there for Saturday’s game against Atlanta. After that come a pair of games at Houston and San Antonio, so hopefully JO can put up some numbers against the Hawks because it’s a couple of the leagues stingiest defenses after that.

The news on Butler isn’t so good as he told people he’d be out “a while” as he walked off the floor. The Wizards haven’t won a game that Butler hasn’t played in the past two years, so this makes me very sad. It’s hard to say who will step up in Butler’s place, if anyone. Jarvis Hayes has proven he’s not an option, although he’s capable of a big game once every season and is a pretty decent rebounder from the SF position. Deshawn Stevenson might also find more opportunities. Back to the Pacers, Jamaal Tinsley was up to his old tricks, sitting out one game after pouring in 37 points. It’s been a fairly easy season to be a Tinsley owner and he sits at a respectable #69 on the player rater, but this is just a reminder that he can be one of the most frustrating players in the league.

Chicago vs. Philadelphia
Last night’s game is why we weren’t too – I’m not going to say bullish, so, um – enthusiastic about Tyrus Thomas. Explosiveness is there, opportunity is not. He still hasn’t topped 30 minutes once this entire season. A teammate that might be on the verge of one of his good stretches again is Chris Duhon. He’s fallen in and out of the rotation a few times this year and one game after receiving just 6 minutes, he played 35 and was good for 11/3/3 with 3 3s and 2 steals. When Duhon gets minutes he’s a solid option because he can help not just in 3s, like plenty of free agent options, but also assists and steals. At this point in the season, that can be of assistance to many people. For the Sixers, Willie Greene seems entrenched in the starting lineup for now, but still, meh. In seven March starts he’s averaging just over 27 mpg and is putting up 12.4/2.7/1.3 with negligible contributions in any other categories. That puts him at a sparkling #209 on the 15-day rater.

New York vs. Toronto
It looks like David Lee’s dream season might be over; don’t forget about him next year. This could keep his value down and make him a great value on draft day 2007. The Knicks are an extremely depleted squad right now without three rotation regulars as Quentin Richardson tried to give it a go but lasted just 10 minutes. Jared Jeffries is the big beneficiary when it comes to minutes, as he played 40 last night and put up a classic Jared line of 2/5/2. OK, he did get three steals, but 40 minutes! The minutes are there in March – almost 34.5 per game – but that’s all. He’s smartly not taking many shots and is shooting 61% on his 3.6 attempts per game, and those 1.8 steals and 0.8 blocks are nice from a SF. But 4.6/5.4/1.6 just doesn’t cut it, not to mention that the guy is shooting 36% from the line this season. Stephon Marbury, Eddy Curry and Steve Francis are all fantastic options right now. Nobody else on the Knicks is even a decent one. We had a Jorge Garbajosa sighting last night as the 29-year-old rookie hit the 20-point mark for the first time in his NBA career. It was also the first time since March 2^nd that he topped 30 minutes. People are always undermanned at center this time of the year and Garbajosa does qualify there. He could be a sneaky option for teams looking to improve in 3s. But let’s see if he can stay on the court consistently before getting too excited.

Utah vs. Orlando
There’s so much luck involved in fantasy basketball, obviously. On draft day, in the second round, I was all set to take Andrei Kirilenko until the owner right before snagged him. Instead I ended up with Jermaine O’Neal. As frustrating as JO is to own, I’m pretty happy with the way that turned out. Kirilenko completely bottomed out last night, not even attempting a single shot in his 20 minutes on the court, although he managed to get a pair of boards, assists, steals and blocks. For teams in head-to-head leagues, AK47 simply isn’t a reliable option heading into the playoffs. He’s nestled in among Eduardo Najera and Travis Outlaw on the 15-day rater. Pathetic is really the only word to use at this point. Trevor Ariza was on the verge of having some value back in January before he went down with a knee injury. He’s played well since he’s returned, averaging 9.3/4.1/1.3 on 57% shooting in 22.5 mpg. Hedo Turkoglu is playing some excellent ball lately, though, and Grant Hill is still around, so Ariza won’t have too much opportunity. Still, keep an eye on him.

Sacramento vs. Charlotte
It’s time to get Sean May into lineups. He’s proven to be a very fragile player who doesn’t mind sitting out long stretches of time, but he’s healthy right now and with Emeka Okafor out he can be a featured player for the Bobcats. His minutes have gone up over the last three games – 22/28/32 – and even if it doesn’t get much higher than that, last night’s 20 and 12 shows that he can be plenty effective. Don’t expect too many more 3s like the clutch one he hit to put the game away, although he did have another one earlier on. Raymond Felton was fighting the flu but still managed to put up 16/3/8 in 26 minutes off the bench, which probably pleased his owners who were upset when he wasn’t in the starting lineup. One disconcerting thing about last night’s game for the Bobcats was that eight players received at least 20 minutes of PT. Did Hubie Brown take over Bernie Bickerstaff’s body for one game or something?

Atlanta vs. Boston
If you need a center, Kendrick Perkins is probably there for the taking and you should think about taking him. It could be one of those instances in which you pick a guy up and miss his most productive stretch, but Perkins was at his most effective at the end of the season last year and he could be in for a repeat. At the very least he should be good for some blocks and boards. He’s grabbed 22 rebounds in the last two games and has blocked a shot in seven straight, averaging almost 2 per game in that span. Rajon Rondo could be in for a very nice final month if he stays in the starting lineup, which he did last night even with the return of Delonte West. Everyone knows that he’s a steals machine, and the 2.5 per game he’s averaging in his last four starts are proof of that. The 7 apg are very nice, too, but that 12-of-23 from the line is no fluke for the 60% shooter. Each member of the Boston starting five is a viable option right now.

Cleveland vs. Memphis
LeBron James owners were surely thrilled to see him back in the lineup last night, and the fact that he only had to play 29 minutes but still put up a wonderful 29/6/4, 3 steals, 4 3, 11-of-17 (and, d’oh, 3-of-6 from the stripe) line was even better. Sasha Pavlovic had a great stretch a while back but hasn’t been able to make it happen again as a starter. He’s seeing just about 30 mpg in eight straight starts but is averaging just 9.3/2.9/2.6 with 1 3 and 1.1 steals on 42% shooting. That’s not going to get it done. Chucky Atkins didn’t have a very good game at all in last night’s blowout, but he is capable of hitting handfuls of 3s, but you just might not know when that will happen. I took a chance and plugged Stromile Swift into the lineup last night and while I would have liked more than 2 rebounds, I’ll take the 5-of-7 shooting and 2 blocks.

Clippers vs. Houston
And that’s why you don’t count on Jason Hart. After a few solid if unspectacular games Hart delivered a 4/1/2 stinker in 22 minutes last night, and that was without Sam Cassell around. Daniel Ewing clearly outplayed him and put up a solid 10/4/6 with 2 3s, and if he can find his way into the starting lineup … nah. Nice to see Chris Kaman come through with solid back-to-back games, receiving 35 minutes both times. He has been one of the biggest disappointments of the year but could be getting ready for a solid final month. Chuck Hayes probably should have been mentioned when I was talking about people who can help you in boards. He grabbed just 6 last night, but that was in 21 minutes. He fouled out (he does that a lot), but is locked into the starting lineup right now and has scored in double digits in four of his last five, averaging 8 rpg over that span while shooting a mighty fine 24-of-36 from the field.

Phoenix vs. Dallas
Yeah, I guess that lived up to the hype. There’s not much to say about these teams, fantasy-wise. It was nice to see Steve Nash launch 25 shots, which seems to indicate that his shoulder may be feeling pretty well. He didn’t top 11 shots in his first four games back, but has now topped 20 attempts in two of his last five, with 14 attempts in two of those other games. Devin Harris made his way back into the starting lineup only to leave with a strained neck. It sounds minor, but it just hasn’t been a very good season for the second-year player. It’s hard to see him being a viable option for competing teams down the stretch. Jerry Stackhouse had one of his monthly explosions, but he’s still not much more than end of the bench fodder.

Detroit vs. Portland
LaMarcus Aldridge did it again. You regular readers know that I’ve been all over him for most of the season. Even when he wasn’t getting any PT at all I told you to keep your eye on him and be ready to pounce, and the last two games are exactly why. It was great to see him have a very productive game while only scoring 14 points, as he chipped in 10 boards, an assist, 2 steals and 3 blocks. He does need to get to the line more, but that’s something he can improve upon. He’s attempting just 1.7 free throws per game in 20.5 mpg, which doesn’t cut it for a center. Still, he’s the real deal. The longer he stays in the starting lineup and gets comfortable, the more consistent he will be.

Aa we head closer and closer to the end of the season, two things become more and more important for players’ fantasy value.  One is one that we’ve talked about plenty this year - their motivation at the end of the year.  We can’t remind you enough of how many guys just shut it down last year in their teams’ last few games because they had nothing to play for.  The other thing that is going to have serious effect on a player’s value is how many games his team has remaining.

Unlike the other major sports (hockey, by the way, is NOT a major sport), basketball teams vary greatly in how their schedules are put together.  Some will play tons of games early in the year and then have a fairly light schedule towards spring.  For others, it’s the other way around.  For most of the year, things are just about even enough across the board that it’s best not to worry about the schedule imbalance.  Right around now, though, is where it starts to come in to play.  A guy with 20 games left to play is going to have way more value than a guy with just 17 left of his schedule.  And as we try and fill out our maximum games across our lineups, every game counts.

With this in mind, let’s look at how many games each team has left as of today:

21 - Detroit
20 - Denver, Washington, Dallas.
19 - Boston, Indiana, Miami, Utah, Minnesota, Portland, LA Clippers, New York, Seattle, Phoenix.
18 - Toronto, Milwaukee, Charlotte, LA Lakers, Houston.
17 - New Jersey, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Orlando, Memphis.
16 - Chicago, Atlanta, Golden State.

Things are looking pretty good for you Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton owners right about now, huh?  Now factor in motivation.  Still good for Billups, Hamilton & co, because they’ll be fighting for home court until (probably) the last week of the year.  Meanwhile, things get even worse for the Grizzlies and 76ers, who not only have fewer games left, but also have fewer games that mean anything.  Of course, things get even better for the Nuggets, who are fighting for playoff position in the West, the Wizards, who are attempting to pretend to fight off Miami, and Dallas, who is battling for home court in the West.

These are things that you absolutely have to take in mind when you’re going through the waiver wires.  I may run another one of these in a couple of weeks because things will continue to shift around.  But as you debate between, say, Matt Barnes and Jerry Stackhouse, this should be a major factor in your decision-making.

Listen, we’re not stupid.  We’re well aware that nobody is paying attention to the NBA right now - especially the Washington Wizards.  So if you’re going to spend all of your time watching the NCAA Tournament, that’s fine with us.  But why not at least make it somewhat productive?  Each week for the next few weeks I’m going to pick out a couple of guys who are worth a cursory look so that you’re not going into drafts next year drafting guys you’ve never seen.

This week I’m going to feature a couple of guys that quite possibly won’t be playing next week.  These guys aren’t the cream of the crop but they’re legit NBA prospects, likely to go in the first round, and in a draft this deep, they are probably comparable in talent to late-lottery guys from last year.  Anyhow:

Nick Fazekas, F/C, Nevada
Friday, 2:50 pm vs. Creighton
One thing that I always like is guys who have gotten it done for three or four years in a row - like Paul Millsap last year, for example.  Fazekas is one of those guys.  He was a strong role player for the 2004 Nevada team that made a nice showing in the tourney, and has led Nevada back to the Big Dance every year since.  He’s been completely unconcsious from the field this year, shooting 58% from the field, and that’s largely due to the fact that he’s bulked up to the point that he can play more on the inside.  The percentage isn’t a fluke, though - he’s topped 50% all four years.  He’s also been deadly from the arc this year (46%) and that’s due to better shot selection - he’s cut his 3PA in half compared to last year.

What all the NBA scouts are going to be looking for - and you should be looking too - is to see if he’s bulked up enough to bang inside against the big boys.  At 6-11 his blocks numbers could be better, and though he rebounds very well (double digits 2 years running) that could be due to his unusual size for a mid-major guy.  He doesn’t really have a marquee matchup against Creighton, so he might need to lead his team into the second round and hope to match up against Memphis, with their strong inside defense, to really answer some questions.

Marcus Williams, G/F, Arizona
Friday, 7:20 pm vs. Perdue
Williams has everything that scouts love - length, hops, hustle, it’s all there.  What I’m not sure is necessarily there is his basketball ability.  One thing that’s always a major red flag for me is swingmen or guards who can’t shoot free throws, and right now Williams is at 69% for the season, down from 73% last year.  He’s also lost his shot from the arc, going just 4-18 over the last six games for Arizona, which has brought his average to under 30% for the year (he shot 44% from the arc a year ago).  Without the ball, the results are also mixed.  He looks to be a pretty strong rebounger, for his size and position, but his length has only brought his 1.1 steals and .8 blocks on the year.

As you can tell, I’m pretty cool on Williams heading into the tourney.  He’s supposed to be a talented swingman but the ball swings more often to the other team (2.7 TO) than it does to his teammates (2.2 Ast).  Tweeners like Williams, unlike big men like Fazekas, need to be really special to generate any sort on major PT in the NBA.  Just ask Rudy Gay, Ronnie Brewer, Rodney Carney or Shawne Williams, all of whom have struggled for minutes for some or all of their rookie campaigns.  If Williams leads Arizona past Florida into the Sweet 16, he might be that special - but that’s a huge if.

Dominic James, PG, Marquette
Thursday, 7:20 pm vs. Michigan State
On the one hand, you’ve got TJ Ford.  On the other hand, you’ve got every other point guard from the past few years who’s really short, really quick, and doesn’t have a great outside shot.  The impression that I’m getting is that the only reason James is getting major love from scouts is because this draft doesn’t have many PG’s.  The kid has no shooting ability whatsoever - from the floor, the arc, or the stripe.  As we’ve seen from Rajon Rondo, rookies don’t just suddenly find their shots once they come to the NBA.

Still, there’s gotta be a reason folks are all in a tizzy about this kid.  Chad Ford has him at 30, Draft Express has him going around 22, despite this being the deepest draft in memory and his seeming lack of talent.  The fact that he’s one of the few PG’s in the draft means that maybe someone will reach him because they’re desperate for a PG, so maybe he’ll walk into a bunch of minutes his rookie year.  Keep an eye on him this weekend and see if there’s anything behind the hype.

As we head into the final month of the fantasy basketball season, it’s getting to do or die time. And this is the time of year when you really start to see the differences in H2H leagues and roto leagues. For all of you H2H folks, right now it’s all about finding the best players who are playing the most games every week. But in roto leagues the situation is different. You may find yourself with lots of spacing in certain categories and may want to use a roster spot specifically for help in a single area. You may also be below your games played threshold and are looking to make up games at certain positions. This makes it so that players that might not be worth a roster spot at most times of the year and on most teams may actually serve you well. So today let’s take a look at some guys who may be able to provide some help in some categories in which it’s easiest to make a move.

Blocks
We’ll start with blocks because it’s one of the easiest categories to make a move in. I’ll use my own situation as an example. Right now I have 9 points in the category, with 461 total blocks. Two teams are sitting right behind me, tied with 460 apiece, while PR is right ahead of me at 473. One player, even a scrub that’s available in a center-desperate league, could make a big difference here. Remember a month or so ago when BV did his “Stone Cold Locks” column? Well, he was right about Baron Davis and Jermaine O’Neal, and it looks like he was even right about Stromile Swift having fantasy value for a few days. The perennial tease turned perennial disappointment has been in and out of the lineup all year but has managed 24.5 mpg in his last two contests and has swatted away 7 shots in that time. If you are way under games at center and need some blocks, this is the best time to pick up Swift. Shaq’s inspired play of late has made Alonzo Mourning mostly irrelevant for fantasy purposes, but if there’s anyone who can still swat a handful of shots in his 15 minutes, it’s ‘Zo. He won’t give you much else, but at least he’ll hit the few shots he takes and he’ll have the occasional big game like he did yesterday. Kwame Brown is well back into the picture now in Los Angeles and seems ready to take Andrew Bynum’s starting job any day now. He’s never been an especially great shot blocker, but he should be able to get a few. And there’s always Erick Dampier, who always has a chance to put up an absolute clunker like he did yesterday, but can swat a few shots also.

Steals
Luke Ridnour seems set to return soon, but it’s no sure thing. Earl Watson may have already been scooped up, but if you need help in steals – and can take a huge hit in FG% – he’s your man. That FG% damage really can’t be ignored, though. After getting to a very respectable 48% in February he’s back down to 39% in March. One player who just keeps on producing this year is Charlie Bell. The Bucks are fairly healthy, but Bell has remained in the starting lineup and continues to see big minutes. He’s averaging 37 mpg so far in March and has been good for 1.6 steals in addition to 1.6 3s. He’s another guy who will hurt your FG%, but I think I’m about to drop Smush Parker for him. We’ve talked about Rajon Rondo’s steals ability before. With Delonte West still a bit loopy thanks to a concussion, it might be time to take advantage of Rondo for a few games while you can; hopefully it’s not too late. He started the last two contests and predictably came through with 5 total steals, and played a staggering 47 minutes yesterday. He’s another guy who will kill your percentages – both of ‘em – so be careful about that.

3s
Andrea Bargnani has turned into a consistent, legit three-point threat for the Raptors. Starting just doesn’t seem to be in the cards for him this season, but he rarely sees fewer than 25 minutes off the bench and is always launching 3s. He threw up 9 yesterday, the second time this month he’s almost reached double digits in attempts. Before the all-star break he was averaging 3.8 attempts per game; since the break he’s at 5.9 per game, and he’s connecting on 45% of those. If you need help in 3s and Bargnani is still out there, consider him a must-add. I talked about Eddie Jones in the last TR and his hot streak doesn’t seem to be ending any time soon. He’s attempted 7.5 3s in his last four games, connecting on 15 of 30 overall. Ride him while you can, and enjoy the steals that come with it. You have to be a little more desperate to reach for James Jones, but he’s another guy that’s shooting 3s if he’s shooting at all. On the season, 174 of his 316 FGA are from behind the arc, and it’s been even more pronounced as of late. In four March games he’s attempted 30 shots; 24 have been from long range. He’s connected in 12 straight games and has made a pair in five straight. He’s truly a one-category player, though.

Rebounds
It’s harder to make a big jump in rebounds than the other categories, and to really help out in this category you need to be playing big minutes, so it’s unlikely that you’ll find anyone on the free agent list who can seriously help you. But there are some options. In 10 post-all-star-break games Anderson Varejao is averaging just over 27 mpg, which is enough to help him collect 8.7 rpg. He’s also chipped in 1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks, making him something slightly more than a specialist. His new center-eligibility (at least in some leagues) also makes him an attractive option to some. Udonis Haslem may be one of the most boring options in fantasy basketball (also, I don’t want to talk about it – both my actual favorite team and fantasy team are collapsing at the same time, it ain’t pretty), but he remains a solid source boards despite some lackluster play of late. Yesterday’s 10 rebound game was the first time he topped 6 in four games, but he totaled 34 in the three contests before that.

Here’s a look at week 3/12-3/18:

Four Games: Boston, Charlotte, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, LA Clippers, Miami, New Jersey, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, Toronto, Utah.

Three Games: Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Golden State, Indiana, LA Lakers, Memphis, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Orleans, New York, San Antonio, Seattle.

Two Games: Washington.

First, a big hand for Big Al.
Four straight double doubles, averaging 26/15/3 with 1 steal and 1.3 blocks in March. Not only has Al Jefferson arrived this season, he has become a bona fide fantasy beast.  Talk about making the leap.  There are only four center-eligible players ranked higher than Jefferson over the last month: Stoudemire, Howard, Camby, and Okafor. Jefferson struggled with injuries, foul trouble, and inconsistent play in his first two seasons, but is now entrenched as the Celtics’ starting power forward for years to come.  I think he beats out the likes of Caron Butler, Kevin Martin, and Andris Biedrins as best steal of the draft (if he was even drafted in your league) this season. His newfound dominance along with his center-eligibility should make him a third round pick in fantasy drafts next season.  And if he continues to improve on his FT% and defensive numbers Big Al could even be projected as a second rounder.  With four games on tap, Jefferson may be the top fantasy center in the league this coming week.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Gerald Green, GF: Speaking of the Celts, Gerald Green is the other youngster who defines the future of the team.  He may have won the dunk contest last month, but the 21-year-old can certainly stroke it too… he’s shooting 41% from long range and 82% from the charity stripe this season.  With both Delonte West and Ryan Gomes sitting out Friday’s game, G-Money started and logged 33 minutes, 17 points and 3 treys.  He’s averaging 1.3 threes in only 20 minutes a game this year, and that number goes up to 2.0 a night when he’s in the starting lineup.  Green is such an exciting and dynamic talent, Boston fans can forget about their record setting 18-game losing streak earlier this season and look forward to the maturation of the young scorer and the rest of the Celtics’ nucleus.  The C’s have won 5 of their last 6 and will hit the hardwood four more times this coming week.  If you need some threes and are feeling green, get G-Money in your lineups.

Richard Jefferson, SF: Like Jason Richardson, RJ has returned to action and will try to salvage what was mostly a lost season.  The Nets are certainly still in the playoff hunt, but they need to turn things around to recover from their current 5-game losing streak.  Jefferson has some rust to shake off: he’s only 4 for 16 in his first two games back, but perhaps we can chalk that up to his facing the league’s top two defenses in Houston and San Antonio.  He’s back in New Jersey’s starting lineup and has four games to look forward to this week (@MEM, @NOK, MIA, LAC), so don’t hesitate to get him back in your lineups. Let’s just hope the Nets get back on track and that RJ’s surgically repaired ankle holds up.

Josh Childress, GF: He’s been a borderline fantasy starter in shallow leagues but now, with Joe Johnson sidelined indefinitely, J-Chill is a no-brainer. He’s one of only a handful of players who comes off the bench for his team, yet remains a solid fantasy contributor day in and day out.  In his first two starts of the season, Childress has played 45 minutes a game and taken 25 shots.  With the increased playing time, an uptick in his numbers is almost assured across the board.  The high efficiency swingman is a great play with three matchups this week.

Earl Watson, PG: Regular starter Luke Ridnour has been out with a herniated disc and “My Name Is” Earl Watson has filled in nicely (to the tune of 15/4/9 with 2 threes and 2.8 steals) over the last four games.  Getting 37 minutes a game over that stretch, you gotta love what the little man can do with plenty of burn.  Watson makes a decent start as the Sonics tip off three times next week.

Sit ‘em down (Just keep ‘em sitting):

Minnesota’s point guards (last 5 games):
Marko Jaric: 30.6 minutes, 5.4/1.6/2.8
Troy Hudson: 29.2 minutes, 10.6/2.0/3.6
Randy Foye: 16 minutes, 7.6/1.4/1.8
Mike James: 11.2 minutes, 2.6/1.2/1.8
Even if you could somehow magically combine the contributions of all four PGs into one slot, that ugly four-headed creature would be far less valuable than one Gilbert Arenas or a Steve Nash.
Conclusion: Avoid like a belligerent homeless man with a turd behind his ear that he uses as a pencil.

We’ll keep it simple this week and just focus on some of the guys recently picked up.

Jeff Foster
Well, the inevitable Jermaine O’Neal injury happened on Wednesday night, which should open up some PT for Foster. Forgive me if I can’t get too excited about his prospects, though. We know full well what Foster can do; put him in the starting lineup and give him 30+ minutes and he may very well grab 17 boards, but he’ll do that while giving you absolutely nothing else. He’ll grab the occasional steal and if he’s lucky will be of minor help in FG% thanks to some putbacks, but his game is just extremely limited. In roto leagues, many teams are scrambling to find players to use up their extra games right now, especially at center, so that makes Foster a somewhat more attractive option. It would be a lot more fun if Ike Diogu got those minutes, but he seems to be an afterthought on the Pacers, just like he was on the Warriors.

Antoine Walker
Walker couldn’t break the 20 minute mark in the first four games after Dwyane Wade went down, but he’s back in Pat Riley’s good graces for now and is averaging 28.3 mpg off the bench in the last three contests. It’s still not quite enough to do much damage, as players who don’t receive big minutes need to be efficient to have value, and Walker’s season percentages of 41/40 don’t exactly scream efficient. He might be good for some cheap 3s, but as long as he’s coming off the bench you can probably do better.

Anthony Johnson
I really don’t want to talk about Johnson, because he was a big reason the Hawks – missing three starters and without Josh Smith for much of the night – knocked off a full-strength Wizards team on Wednesday. Ugh, just disgusting. Down to a three-game lead over the Heat with 7 of the next 9 on the road … yeah, that’ll turn out well. Anyway, Johnson, the neckless one. As long as Speedy Claxton stays out of the picture, Johnson should be a pretty valuable commodity. He took his spot in the starting lineup and played a total of 76 minutes in his last two, averaging 17.5/2/3.5 with 2 3s and 1.5 steals. He’s a classic example of the Temporary Point Guard Solution that we spent a ridiculous amount of time talking about in his blog’s early days. With Joe Johnson out for a while there are plenty of minutes and points to go around, and the new Johnson should benefit. If you need PG help and he’s out there, grab him and hope Claxton is content collecting paychecks and wearing suits for the next month.

Eddie Jones
The second of three Heat players we’ll talk about. Jones seems to have taken a whirl in the rejuvenation machine over the past couple of games, averaging 22/2.5/4.5 with 5 3s, 3 steals and a block on 65/80 shooting in 36.5 mpg. Yeah, lines don’t come much better than that. Jones is pretty old, but he hasn’t played too much this season so he should have his legs despite it being almost mid-March. He’s always had sneaky value because he simply gets 3s and steals when he sees minutes, so as long as he keeps playing, he should be worth starting. Don’t expect shots to keep falling at the same rate they have been, though. He’s valuable because more than half the shots he takes are 3s, not because he connects on a high percentage. He can help your team, especially with Jason Kapono out, but if he starts missing lots of shots he could do some damage.

James Posey
Hey, whaddya know?! Another member of the Heat. Jason Kapono’s injury could lead to Posey having some nice value, especially for his 3s and steals, making him similar to Jones. He wasn’t too impressive in his first start, but played 37 minutes and hit a 3 to go along with a steal and a block. He shoots 3s almost exclusively in Miami, and with big minutes can have the occasional monster game from behind the arc. He’ll have some clunker games, but his big games with 3+ 3s and steals each can make up for those.

Juan Dixon
As we enter March Madness it’s nice to see our old friend Juan Dixon return to fantasy radars. He’s been a quick and easy fit in Toronto and ended up starting in just his sixth game for the team in the wake of Anthony Parker’s injury and Morris Peterson’s ineffectiveness. In his last three games he’s averaged 18.3/4.7/3.3 with 1.3 steals and 1 3. Solid, but that’s about as good as it gets for Juan. He’s never hit as many 3s as you’d think, and his boards and assists have never been noteworthy. That means he needs many minutes to be a fantasy factor and the 34.7 he’s had the past three games does the trick. With Parker on the verge of returning Dixon’s run might be an especially short one.

Drew Gooden
Gooden’s durable and has some nice skills, but he just can’t get enough PT to ever make a real difference. This is Gooden’s fifth season in the league and he’s never been below 26 mpg, but has never been above 31 mpg. He’s forever in between those two numbers, teetering on the edge of fantasy relevance. He recently went through one of his most prolonged stretches of ineffectiveness, being held in single digits for seven straight games before breaking out with 22 and 10 in a win against the Pistons. Gooden has started every game he’s played in this season and the Cavs are winning, so it doesn’t seem like there’s any reason to make a change. In January Gooden averaged 12.9/8.6/0.7 with 1.2 steals on 49% shooting, and there’s a chance he could have a stretch like that again. One alarming stat on Gooden – he hasn’t blocked a shot in 21 games. 21 games. Coming from a PF, that’s just remarkable.

John Salmons
It seemed like Salmons would be a nice addition after Ron Artest had his annual implosion, but that hasn’t been the case yet. The minutes have been there – 35.5 in the past two games – but that’s about it. Salmons strength this year has been dishing dimes, and the 6.5 he’s averaged in the past two contests aren’t that much of a fluke. As a starter this season his numbers are decent – 11.9/4.4/4.0 with 1.3 steals, 0.6 blocks, 0.5 3s on 48/81 shooting – so it’s worth giving him a few more games to get into an offensive groove with Artest out of the picture. That said, it’s clear that he’s not going to replace Artest’s numbers and that Kevin Martin and Mike Bibby are the main benefactors of Ron-Ron’s continued insanity. As long as Salmons is starting and playing around 35 mpg, he’s a decent risk to leave in most lineups.

Time to return to one of the points we hammer home the most on FBB – the almighty power of the minute. It’s the most basic principle – to win fantasy basketball, you need players who accumulate stats. To accumulate stats, you need to be on the court. Players who are on the court more accumulate more stats. We’ve been through this before. Minutes win. I don’t want to jinx my team further on a night when Jermaine O’Neal already went down, but one of the main reasons my team is in first place is that I boast seven players in the top 30 in total minutes played. So let’s take a look at some names near the top of the minutes played leaderboard, separated into three different categories.

The Sure Things
Gilbert Arenas, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion
There’s a reason that these players were possibly the first four players taken in your draft back in the fall. Yes, they are among the most talented players in the league, but they also have a track record of health and big minutes that makes them guarantees. Arenas is 3^rd in total minutes this season, James 4^th, Garnett 6^th and Marion 10^th. Arenas has averaged 40+ minutes in each of the past three seasons, has missed four games over that span and just turned 25. Those are the kinds of traits you want in a player who will be anchoring your team. As disappointing as LeBron’s season has been, the one thing you must give him credit for is his continued heavy workload. His game may have stagnated but by staying healthy and playing 41 mpg he remains an elite talent. It’s the guarantee of huge minutes that makes it near impossible to pass over LeBron with one of the top few picks in next year’s draft. Garnett has long proven his superhuman durability. When he missed the last six games of the 05-06 season it was more games he missed then the previous eight years combined. We worry about most big men as they get on the other side of 30, but Garnett has shown absolutely no reason for us to be worried yet. He’s actually seeing more minutes than he has since the 02-03 season and is looking like a good bet to be the most valuable player in fantasy yet again. It seems like Marion’s been dinged up a bit this year, but the two games he missed recently were his first two absences of the season. And he’s averaged 43 mpg in the games since he’s returned, which is a perfect example of why Marion, like Garnett, should never be overlooked at the beginning of drafts.

The New Breed
Andre Iguodala, Joe Johnson, Elton Brand, Dwight Howard
Johnson obviously sticks out here since it looks like he’ll miss a good portion of the rest of the season. But after four years of appearing in 82 games we’re willing to give him the benefit of the doubt with this injury. It’s more important to note his career high 41.4 mpg, his fourth straight season of at least 39.5 mpg, with back-to-back career highs in his first two seasons with Atlanta. He’ll turn 26 in the offseason, meaning he’s likely to continue to see as many minutes as he can handle for a while. We’ve remained high on Iguodala because of his durability and big minutes and this season has only reinforced why that was the case. He still hasn’t missed a game in his pro career and is up to 40.3 mpg, ranking second in the league in total minutes played. He is a true ironman and will likely be the focal point of his team’s offense for the entire season next year. Don’t be afraid to take him in the second round if you have to. Brand and Howard are trying to follow in the footsteps of Garnett as reliably high-minute big men. After a couple of seasons in which Brand had some bad injury luck he’s now strung together three straight seasons of very good health and has maintained his minutes in the high 30s, ranking 16^th in the league in total minutes, with Garnett, Marion and Howard the only big men ahead of him. Despite some great streaks, Howard may be considered a disappointment by some, ranking just 37^th on the average player rater, and that’s in leagues that don’t bring into account his nearly 4 turnovers per game. But because he’s out there every night playing 36 mpg, he’s #18 on the overall rater. He’s 13^th in total minutes; next highest for a player that qualifies at center is Eddy Curry at 28^th. That’s a big competitive advantage to have at that position and it’s one reason why Howard should still be given some benefit of the doubt.

One Year Wonders?
Mike Miller, Luol Deng, Shane Battier, Deron Williams
Going into Wednesday’s games, the league leader in total minutes played was Mike Miller. This is fairly shocking, considering that hadn’t managed to top 76 games once since his rookie season, and went four straight seasons without topping 65. He played in 76 and 74 in 04-05 and 05-06, respectively, but averaged just 30 mpg in both of those seasons. So what to make of this year’s PT explosion? It seems like a fluke, but the trends of the past few years were at least going in the right direction. Still, of all the players in the top 10 this year, he seems the most likely to be there next season. And that top 10 includes Luol Deng, who entered Wednesday 8^th in the league in total minutes. We were impressed with Deng when he managed to receive 33.4 mpg from the always fickle Scott Skiles in his second year when he started just 56 games. He’s up to 37.4 mpg this season and has managed to stay healthy. That has helped him work his way into the top 30 on the player rater. We were as high on Deng as anyone and we didn’t think it would be that good. We were excited about Shane Battier going to Houston because it just seemed like he would be a guy that Jeff Van Gundy would love and keep out on the court a lot. That has proven to be the case, as Battier has seen 37 mpg, his highest workload since his rookie season. He’s also been one of the few constants in the Houston lineup, and seems to keep his career-long streak of appearing in at least 78 games alive at six years and counting. His stat line of 10.6/4.1/1.8 on 45% shooting sure doesn’t look exciting, but there he is at #50 on the player rater. We were shocked when he went as early as #65 in our draft, but he’s proven to be worth it. Just like Deng overcame Scott Skiles quick hook, it seems that Deron Williams has done the same with Jerry Sloan. His 37.1 mpg is a very healthy number for a player under Sloan and it only stands to increase as his career gets going. He’s missed a couple games lately but has avoided the curse of day-to-day becoming week-to-week, avoiding missing consecutive games.

They’re the toughest position to fill in basketball - centers.  And I’ve got a couple of thoughts about them.  With that in mind, I’m gonna steal an old column title from DM and chat a little bit about the trends that we’ve seen this year from our big men.

Trend #1 - The Breakout is “In.”

Breakouts have come in all forms this year from fantasy centers.  There’s been the out-of-nowhere breakout, good-to-great breakout, even the answering-your-questions breakout.  For example:

Player                        APR Last Year   APR This Year
Amare Stoudamire         n/a                   16
Carlos Boozer                53                    29
Emeka Okafor                96                    39
Dwight Howard              71                    43
Andris Biedrins              n/a                    59
Al Jefferson                   n/a                    64
Tyson Chandler             144                   73

Biedrins was a legitimate out-of-nowhere guy.  He didn’t even land on our fantasy tiers list, where guys like Ike Diogu and Kurt Thomas did.  He looks like a legit mid-round center for years to come, as does Al Jefferson, another breakout guy who was slightly more predictable.  Others, like Okafor and Stoudamire, had to come back from injuries but did better than anyone expected.  Finally, guys like Boozer and Howard made “The Leap” this year, and both are probably top-30 picks for the forseeable future.  I was pretty surprised to see such a strong list of bigs who really came out this year and showed us what they could do - in a good way.

Trend #2 - So Steady

Other guys had question marks related to their performance this year.  A few of them have really come through for their owners and justified being taken high in the draft:

Player              APR Last Year          APR This Year
Mehmet Okur         49                            58
Yao Ming               12                             9
Tim Duncan            38                           23

For Okur and, to a lesser degree, Ming, the question was if their 2005-2006 seasons were for real.  Ming had a slight breakout last year, really emerging as a big-time contributor in FT% and making a big leap in points and boards.  This year - and I realize he missed time with an injury but it was unrelated to last year and he seems to be fine for next year - he’s played even better.  He’s getting to the line more than ever before and shooting even better than last year, scoring even more and blocking shots at a career-high rate as well.  For Okur, He was a major breakout guy last year, and the assumption was that with Boozer back in the lineup full-time he’d take a step back - but nother has been further from the truth.  He’s improved even more from three-point range, and really backed up his solid 05-06 campaign with another quality year.

Duncan, well, you just can’t count this guy out.  People (us included) were really down on him going into the year, and thought he might be losing some of his luster, but I guess not.  Sorry, Timmy.  On another note, Jermaine O’Neal and Samueal Dalembert can probably go in here as well.

Trend #3 - Old is Bad

Lets just get to it:

Player                     APR Last Year      APR This Year
Brad Miller                    30                     132
Zydrunas Ilgauskas      46                     104
Ben Wallace                  59                      97
Shaquille O’Neal            94                     n/a

Oh, boy.  this is just not pretty.  I’ll leave this one to the peanut gallery - where the hell do you draft these guys next year?

The point is, add the top two groups to the this of consistently good centers like Chris Bosh, Pau Gasol, and Jermaine O’Neal, and breakout-next-year-potentials like Andrew Bynum and Greg Oden, and decent-but-but-that-great guys like Al Harrington, Andrew Bogut and Nenad Krstic, and I think it’s possible that we’ll have 20 good centers next year, which is going to make the center scarcity issues an interesting question heading into the summer.

We’ve certainly had our share of breakouts this year from the 2005 rookie class - late picks like Jarrett Jack, Monta Ellis and David Lee have all gone from being fantasy irrelevant last year to bona-fide starters this year.  But there’s also been a disturbing trend going on with some of the names at the top of the draft list - they just haven’t improved at all.  Let’s go through the big names and try to figure out if they’ve just plateaued - or maxed out.

Andrew Bogut
Everything was supposed to fall into place this season for Bogut - with Jamaal Magloire out of the way, not only was Bogut going to see more minutes, but he was going to get to play them at his natural center position, rather than at power forward.  The minutes have certainly come - he’s up to 34 from 28 in his rookie year, but the performance hasn’t improved much at all.  He’s had slight bumps in his per-minute points, FG% and boards, but his blocks have gone from bad to worse (0.8 to 0.6), and same with his FT% (63% to 57%).

So what’s going on?  Part of the problem is that the Bucks are dominated by jump-shooters, and Bogut isn’t one of them.  Michael Redd, Mo Williams, Ruben Patterson, Earl Boykins, Charlie Villanueva and Charlie Bell ALL shoot more per-game than Bogut (granted, injuries have inflated those averages, but it’s telling that six guys shoot it more than him).  The Bucks’ run-and-gun style doesn’t leave much room for Bogut to excel, despite his strong FG% (54%) and offensive rebounding abilities (2.6 per game is 24th in the league).

The other part of the problem is that Bogut doesn’t seem to excel at anything, really, defensively.  His defensive rebounding is solid but he’s completely allergic to blocking shots - which is a real problem for a center.  He was OK in college, blocking 1.3 per game as a freshman and then improving to 1.9 as a sophomore, but since coming to the NBA he just hasn’t been able to get his hands on the ball.  Bogut has been a very dissapointing 89 on the APR and is looking like no better than a mid-round #2 center for next year.  It might be that a change of scenery is what Bogut needs most, to a more plodding, half-court system.

Raymond Felton
Just like with Bogut, everything seemed like it was falling into place for Felton this year.  After a spectacular second half of 2006, Felton was set to play a major role for the Bobcats this year, and once Brevin Knight got hurt, it looked like Felton would be a major breakout candidate this year.  Again, just like Bogut, the minutes have come in a major way - his 37 per game (up from 30 last year) are 27th in the league.  Unfortunately (boy, this sounds familiar), the performance just hasn’t improved at all.  He’s slightly down per-minute in points and boards, and essentially stagnant in assists.  This doesn’t sound that bad, but consider that we’re comparing this to his full-year performance last year, not just his spectacular second half that was the basis for his predicted success this year and 4th/5th round draft position.

So what’s going on?  For one thing, his shooting is as bad as it’s ever been - acutally, it’s worse, at 38% for the yaer down from 39% last year.  I think part of that can be blamed on Knight’s absence, as Felton was allowed to create more off the ball last year and Knight - one of the best passers in the league - was able to set him up for more quality shots.  With Knight out, there’s not a single guy on the roster who is much of a passer, and that meant that if Felton was going to get shots he was going to have to create them himself - good luck getting the ball back once you dish it to Matt Carroll, Adam Morrison or Gerald Wallace.

Felton’s style last year really reminded me of Baron Davis - he’s a real risk-taker on offense and sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.  But he’s just not the scorer that Baron is, and on the plus side he’s been able to improve his FT% to a somewhat respectable 78% this year, taking him out of Baron territory there at least for the time being.  Now, I think I can see Felton being a little more like a slightly different risk-taker - Jason Williams.  White Chocolate has never been a major scorer and his jump shot has always been terrifying (for his coaches, not the other team), but he’s still contribute in threes, assists, and steals.  If Felton was going to break out, it was going to be this year, but we might just have to settle for him being a solid if unspectacular mid-round pick.

Channing Frye
Frye might be the current leader in the race for “most times mentioned in Transaction Reaction,” and it’s no surprise that he was just dropped yesterday in our league.  We had high hopes for Frye heading into the season - he was finally getting out of the shadow of Larry Brown, he was a favorite of Isaiah Thomas (but then, isn’t everyone on the Knicks?), and he had put together such a solid first-year campaign that it was reasonable to think he would back it up with another solid effort as a sophomore.

So what happened?  Well, for one thing, Eddy Curry happened.  Curry went from playing just 25 mpg last year to almost 35 mpg this year - despite drops in his rebound rate and blocked shots, but that’s another matter.  With Curry taking up most of the minutes in the middle, Frye was going to have to log most of his time at PF - but then, David Lee happened.  Lee’s forced his way onto the court - thanks to his incredible rebounding ability, which counter Curry nicely - to the tune of 30 mpg.  So Frye, who is close the same player this year as he was last year, just isn’t seeing the opportunity we all thought he would.

Still, some blame has to go Frye’s way.  His FG% has taken a hit from last year (44% from 47.7%), and he’s not getting to the line at all, meaning he’s settling for more jumpers and not playing inside.  This is also leading fewer rebounds, and his offensive boards have been nearly cut in half (1.3 down from 2.1 per game).  Despite handling the ball more outside the lane, he’s still a horrendous passer, with just 0.8 per game.  Still, he’s probably a nice late-round risk for next year because you just never know if Eddy Curry will play as much next year as he does this year, and those minutes will probably go to Frye if they go to anyone.