It’s been an obviously wacky fantasy basketball campaign, and one of the wackiest seasons has been turned in by Stephon Marbury. With just a bit more than a month to go, it’s getting to the point where it’s hard to give too much advice on what you should do with your team. We’ll of course be telling you free agents to look for to help put you over the top, but I also think it’s important to use the last month of the season to reflect on lessons to be learned for future seasons. So let’s take a look at Marbury. Coming into the season, I was very high on Steph. I thought he would be the comeback star of the year and backed up my talk by taking him in the 4^th round of my draft with the 45^th overall pick. Needless to say, I was not too happy with this decision a month into the season. He was confused as to what his role with the team was, wasn’t his usual aggressive self and it all bottomed out on Nov. 25 when he didn’t even attempt a single shot in 19 minutes in a 106-95 loss at Chicago. He was being cut in many leagues but it just wasn’t something I could advise and we’ll make that the first lesson.

Don’t cut proven stars, even during extended slumps. We’ll get to selling low in a minute, but cutting a player like Marbury, even at his lowest point just rarely will work out for the best. His upside (along with other similar players) will almost always be much higher than just about anything you can pluck off the waiver wire. Around Nov. 25, here were the players that were picked up in my league: Dorrell Wright, Marcus Williams, Andrea Bargnani, Chris Duhon, Randy Foye, Jeff Foster, Ime Udoka, etc. You get the point. When Wright played a combined 79 minutes in games on 11/24-25 and racked up 27 rebounds, it may have seemed like a good idea to pick him up instead of the clearly out of sorts Marbury. If you read this site, it probably means that you are pretty into fantasy basketball. And there’s obviously nothing wrong with that; we’re kind of pretty into fantasy basketball ourselves. It’s not like we’re in this for the money. But one of the drawbacks to this is that it can sometimes consume your life a bit too much and you start overanalyzing and over-obsessing over everything. Sometimes you really just need to take a step back and look at the big picture. A casual fantasy player would never drop Stephon Marbury for any of those guys listed above, because it just doesn’t look right. And that’s a good test – if it just doesn’t look right, it probably isn’t right.

Trading low on a slumping superstar isn’t always the greatest idea, either. Pulling off a trade would obviously be better than releasing him outright, but the same principle remains. I remember getting a few offers for Marbury when his value was low –g ranted it was after a couple of big games, as nobody would have dealt for him at his lowest point – but they were players like Chris Wilcox or such. Sure, he’s a nice little player, but Marbury has a long history as a difference maker, and Wilcox certainly isn’t one of those. The one player I kept going after when shopping Marbury during this time was Andris Biedrins. My thinking was that while Biedrins was obviously performing much better this season, their histories would suggest that things would even out to the point that it would be a somewhat fair deal. While Biedrins is still much higher on the player rater – 37 to Marbury’s 64, which means he’s up to a 6^th round value in 12-team leagues – over the past month Marbury is slightly higher. Look, you have bench spots for a reason. At least I hope you have bench spots. You can’t play all of your players all the time. Sometimes all you can do is sit back and wait for your players to start playing like you expected them to. Not to pick on our friend bublitchki, but it’s got to sting to see Mike Bibby finally playing like we thought he would for most of the season. For Marbury to kick it into his highest gear he needed Jamal Crawford to go down, but you never know when an injury like that will open up an opportunity. Which brings us to a final point.

The main beneficiary of an injury is often a player you can’t pick up. If there’s one thing this season has had no shortage of, it’s been serious injuries. And we always say that there’s opportunity where there’s an injury. But that doesn’t mean there’s a player you can pick up that will help you. After Crawford went down we had a speculation pick up of Nate Robinson, thinking he might be a beneficiary. But as of now it sure looks like Marbury is the main beneficiary of Crawford’s unfortunate injury. After a three-game stretch of single-digit points which landed him back on my bench for the first time in a while, Marbury started to pick it up again with three consecutive 20+ point games, including a 25-point outing in the game that Crawford got hurt. Since then, though, he’s been a man possessed and is the #2 player in the game in the last 7 days. It helps to get 45.7 mpg, but that line of 31.7/3.3/6.7 with 4.7 3s (!!!) and 2 steals is making me a very happy dude right now. There are huge trades going down left and right in the last few days before our deadline, there are 5 or 6 transactions each day, but I’m just sitting back and watching, letting the resurgent Marbury carry my team.

I’m not sure how many people who spent a high draft pick on Marbury had the patience to hold onto him throughout the entire season and are enjoying the fine play right now. He obviously won’t keep up his ridiculous pace of the past week for the rest of the season, especially all those 3s, but it’s not inconceivable that he tries to put the team on his back as the Knicks make a push for the playoffs. A few more games like the ones he’s been having recently could vault him into the top 50 by the end of the season, putting him right near preseason predictions. Sometimes you just have to remember that the season is 82 games long.

Here’s a look at week 3/5-3/11:

Four Games: Atlanta, Cleveland, Denver, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LA Lakers, Miami, San Antonio, Seattle, Washington.

Three Games: Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, LA Clippers, Memphis, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Orleans, Orlando, Philadelphia, Sacramento, Toronto, Utah.

Two Games: Dallas, New York, Phoenix, Portland.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Cuttino Mobley, SG: The veteran sharp-shooting guard has continued his steady decline in recent years to average 13.2 ppg and 1.1 threes this season, the lowest in those categories since his rookie year.  Mobley is not the player he used to be, but he remains a decent fantasy option.  Despite his modest production in 2006-’07, Mobley has actually stepped up his game over the last month: 16/3/3 with 2.1 treys, 1.1 thefts, and 46/87% shooting.  Kinda nostalgic.  Not that these numbers are terribly impressive, but those slight upticks in all categories really make a big difference for a two guard like Cuttino.  With Livingston out for the year and Cassell missing time due to being elderly, Mobley should continue to produce at his recent elevated level.

Steve Francis, PG: It wasn’t that long ago that Cuttino and Stevie Franchise were one of the best 1-2 guard combos in the league. Man, what a difference a few injuries and a trade to the Knicks can do to a player’s career. Francis just turned 30 last month, but it appears his knees may be on borrowed time. It’s doubtful that he will ever reclaim the rights to his old nickname, but that doesn’t necessarily mean his fantasy relevant days are over.  Just look at the situation he currently finds himself in. New York is technically still in the playoff hunt (they won a game in OT on the road yesterday, so we can give ‘em some credit), and what was once a crowded backcourt has become a shorthanded one.  Jamal Crawford has shut it down for the season and now Quentin Richardson is sidelined with a bad back…  They were two of the team’s top scorers.  It’s no wonder Starbury has dropped 72 points in his last two games.  Little man, Nate Robinson, is in for some increased minutes and numbers, but he’s also sat out the last 3 games with a tummy ache.  This leaves our boy Steve Francis to pick up the slack (if his knees don’t buckle).  Francis scored 26 points in 41 minutes last night, and will continue to see as many minutes as he can handle.  The Knicks only have two games (SEA, @WAS) coming up this week, but this is an opportune time to use Francis while you can.

Matt Carroll, GF: He probably shouldn’t be starting in the NBA, but his 42% shooting from long range has earned him 29 starts for the Charlotte Bobcats this season.  Carroll is in the midst one of his better stretches of the year, averaging 18/5/1 with 2.3 threes, and 49/93% shooting in his last six contests.  At 6’6” he’s starting to realize that he should be able to grab more than 2 boards a game, and he’s actually getting to the line a fair amount (5 FTA/gm since Feb 21) for a white guy from Notre Dame.  Teammate Emeka Okafor is having a career season but hurt his leg last week… he could be shelved for some time.  If you’re looking for some help in threes and percentages, MC is your man this week with three games on tap.

James Posey, SF: Another throwback who may be worth your time in deeper H2H leagues.  With D-Wade out and Kapono struggling, Posey may step it up like the Stereo MCs.  Here’s a telling stat: since February 1st, Posey has had at least one steal in every game except one.  He’s only averaging 27 minutes in his last 15 games, but has managed 1.6 treys and 1.5 thefts over that time.  He’s also got the potential for a couple breakout games (he’s hit 5 threes in two different games over the last few weeks) as Miami has four nice matchups at home next week (ATL, CHI, MIN, WAS).  You could start Jimmy-P over someone like Raja Bell who only plays twice.

Sit ‘em down:

Randy Foye and the rest of Minny’s backcourt: As if we hadn’t had enough of the Foye/James/Jaric combo yielding worthless fantasy mediocrity, today Coach Wittman decided to show them who’s boss by inserting Troy Hudson as the team’s starting point guard.  Hudson logged 46 minutes scoring 26 and dishing 8 assists in the double-OT loss to the Celtics, while the other three combined for 7 points in 40 minutes.  You might wonder why I don’t recommend plugging in Hudson.  Here’s the answer: He hasn’t averaged more than 9.5 ppg since the ’02-’03 season, and he’ll still be competing with three other point guards for 48 minutes of playing time.  This is a fantasy situation I want no part of until Foye is given (and keeps) unobstructed reigns on the starting gig.  The rookie is the only one worth your attention… and with today’s benching and 6 minutes on the court, I think we can all look elsewhere for the time being.

How convenient of DM to be unable to do a TR and ask me to pinch hit, on a week when our league has seen 32 players added, dropped or traded!  Needless to say, we’re not going to go through all of them, but here are a couple of highlights:

ADDED AND DROPPED
We saw a couple of guys get both picked up and dropped this week.  Hey, that’s the volatility of the NBA and when you’re in a competitive league, sometimes you gotta be quick on the trigger.  Among them:

JR Smith - He was dropped, obviously, because of the injury, and his previous owner picked up Brent Barry instead.  If Smith is due to be out a month, and his value is already slightly limited with both AI and Melo around, he’s not that tough a drop.  Brent Barry has been a classic ’sneaky value’ guy - tough to own because of his spotty points and productivity but he’s great in 3’s and percentages.  He’s the kinda guy you can’t own early in the year but as the season develops and you need help in specific categories he becomes a guy to seriously consider.

I turned around and picked up Smith a couple days later when it was revealed that he might only miss a couple of weeks.  I’m planning on making a big move in threes in the next two months and all I had to drop for him was Eddie House, so the decision wasn’t too tough.  I’ll stash him on my bench and hope for the best.  When healthy he’s been a solid fantasy starter in Denver and I’ve just decided to be patient with him.

DeShawn Stevenson - Stevenson has really shone since the All-Star break.  With 2 of the Wizards Big 3 hurt and the other struggling big-time, he stepped up and put together a nice string of games, 17/3.8/3.3 since the All-Star break with 1.5 3’s and 1.2 steals on 53% from the field.  However, with Butler and Jamison both due back tonight (thank god), it’s probably the end of that sort of productivity for DeShawn.  He was added in exchange for Chris Duhon last week, and then Wednesday he was dropped for Jorge Garbojosa - two guys who bounce on and off of waivers all the time.

Sam Cassell - just a case of poor timing for the guy who dropped him in favor of Earl Watson just two days before Shaun Livingston ruined his knee.  But hey, that’s how quickly value can change in this league.  One day you’re in a time-share, the next day the minutes are all yours.  Just ask PR, who picked up Cassell almost immediately after Livingston went down, only to see Cassell get hurt the next game.  Cassell should obviously still be on rosters as the groin sounds like a minor issue.

Steve Blake - PR actually dropped Blake to get Cassell, but in a league filled with UMD alumni, it was not too long before he was snatched back up.  Balke has been getting the jerk-around from George Karl but it’s pretty conceivable that he’ll be back in the lineup relatively soon, so this was a nice use of a garbage spot based on a hunch.  He was added in favor of Mackael Pietrus, who has struggled for minutes since the return of Jason Richardson, but now that Stephen Jackson is hurt he could be worthwhile again and might be picked up any day depending on how long Jackson will be out.

TRADES
A couple of trades this week so let’s get down to it:

Joe Johnson for Mehmet Okur - This is one that I made, giving up Johnson.  Here’s what led me to do it, because i know that Johnson is more valuable than Okur overall.  One, I’ve got a 200-assist buffer on either side of me in the standings, so Johnson’s assists will do me no good from here on out.  Two, i’ve been forced to play Mikki Moore lately thanks to Emeka Okafor being out, so I really needed a center.  Three, if I was going to give up Johnson I was going to need some threes in return because as I stated earlier that’s a spot I can make a move in.  Four, the Hawks won’t be competing come April, whereas the Jazz will, so I like Okur’s chances of playing out the season better than Johnson.  Finally, I’ve also got a 400-point buffer on either side of me in the standings so the drop there won’t hurt either.  So there you have it.

Mike Bibby, Ray Allen, and Chris Wilcox for Chris Paul, Lamar Odom, and Luke Walton.  Ah, the validation.  Last week I talked about Ray Allen and said he was a risk for contending teams because he’s on a bad team and might not play the whole season.  About a month ago I warned that a guy like Allen was a good bet to sit out the last week or two of action.  So when I saw a guy make a trade for Bibby, Allen, and Wilcox - all three of whom are on struggling teams - I said to myself, “hmm…pretty risky there.”  This trade went through yesterday at 5 PM.  About 6 hours later the new Allen owner was kicking himself as Allen sat out with a sore ankle, the sort of thing that I’m betting he would play through if the Sonics had anything to play for.  Let that be a lesson right there as we head into the fanasy trade deadline.

A while back some folks asked about our thoughts on some of the best keepers for next season, so today we’ll try to address that. It’s not the easiest subject to cover, for a variety of reasons. The majority of leagues aren’t keeper leagues, for one. Most keeper leagues probably have different rules, for another. If the goal is to simply keep the best players, then we probably can’t be too much help. It doesn’t take much of a genius to figure out that guys like Gilbert Arenas, Shawn Marion, Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki are some decent guys to go after. It gets more interesting if your keepers are based on where they were drafted, or some sort of value like in auction leagues. So here we’ll focus on players like that – not top-tier superstars, but players who should see a serious spike in value next season. So even if you’re not in a keeper league, consider this an early look at some sleepers for next season. Keep your eye on these guys over the last month and a half so you can see what they are like. The key to finding a breakout player is to find that guy with the right combination of an increase in ability and opportunity, so here are four guys to target.

Brandon Roy

An early season injury kept him from building much momentum until a few months into the season, but Roy has emerged as the best in this year’s rookie class. We all thought he was a pretty polished player coming out of college and he’s lived up to that, and he’ll be 23 next season, so it’s not like he’s that young. But the important thing is that he’s already established himself as Portland’s go-to guy. OK, Zach Randolph may technically be the go-to guy, and he takes 6.5 more FGA per game than Roy. But when it gets down to crunch time it’s often Roy who has the ball and is counted on to make the big play. This bodes well for his future. It also bodes well for him that Portland seems to like and trust him, and he won’t be anything worse than the #2 option on the team next year. It’s not completely out of the realm of possibilities that Randolph gets moved and in that case Roy becomes the clear #1, unless the Blazers get a superstar back. His fantasy game is well-rounded without any real standout categories, keeping him down at #75 on the APR for the year. But his scoring has increased each month and he’s finally starting to find the range from three-point land, too. He’s averaging about 1 3pg over the past two months after hitting barely any at all early on. The most important thing with Roy going forward is that he stays healthy. A player like him could make a very solid 4^th/5^th round choice as long as he can be counted on for 75 games or so per season.

Kevin Martin

Huh? Shouldn’t you generally avoid players coming off career years. Yes, but games like last night’s have me thinking that there are more good things in store for K-Mart next season. Even if the Kings manage to sneak into the playoffs this year, they are going nowhere fast. This is a team in need of a facelift and the Maloofs and Geoff Petrie haven’t been afraid to shake things up in the past. It’s clear that Martin is the team’s best offensive weapon at this point, but there are still games when he’s a complete non-factor because Mike Bibby and Ron Artest get into a pissing contest as to who can take more horrible shots. Logic dictates that one of them has to go next season, and that can only mean good things for Martin. Now I’ll admit that I have the biggest man-crush in the world on Martin since I drafted him in the 8^th round this year, so you’ll never hear me say anything bad about him. He was even my #1 MySpace friend for a long spell there, before I felt that Gilbert should take that honor. AN HONOR HE DOESN’T SEEM TO WANT MUCH THESE DAYS. Sorry. Anyway, as someone who has watched more Kings games than most non Sacramentonites this year, don’t doubt Martin’s abilities. Seriously. He currently sits at #20 on the rater and there’s simply no way he’s getting taken in the second round next year, no matter what. So that means he may very well be undervalued again.

David Lee

Is it possible Lee comes off the bench again next season? Sure, he’s thrived in that role and doesn’t seem to mind it all that much. But you have to think that he’ll get a shot to be the starting PF for the Knicks next season. It’s the one position on the team where there’s no veteran making tons of money waiting ahead of him. It looked like Channing Frye was the 4 of the future, but Lee has clearly established himself as the superior talent and Frye may find himself as trade bait in the off season. Lee’s 61% from the field is one of the most amazing stats of the season and after he shot 60% last year, it can’t be considered much of a fluke. When the majority of shots are follows and tips, it’s easier to keep that percentage up. With just 31 mpg Lee is one of the top rebounders in the league – if that number increases to 37-38 mpg, he could certainly battle Kevin Garnett and Dwight Howard for the league lead in boards. And if he develops more of a scoring touch or grabs more steals and blocks with more PT … watch out.

LaMarcus Aldridge

I sure write a lot about Aldridge for a kid who hasn’t really done all that much so far in the NBA. But I just like his game too much, and think he could be putting up very nice numbers, very soon. First I’ll give the caveat that he could have a little Channing Frye thing going on, where he’s a young big who looks good in his rookie year, gets most of his points from outside jump shots, and doesn’t really develop from there. Aldridge has at least shown some ability to block shots and with a decent 35 mpg he can probably be counted on for 1.5 per game. I’ve discussed his foul problems, but that’s something that he can very easily work on over the summer. Of course, it’s the expected increase in PT that makes him an attractive option for next year. Jamaal Magloire will be out of the picture for sure, leaving the always-fragile, always-kinda-crappy Joel Przybilla as the other big man in Portland. The Blazers have made good progress this year and should let Roy and Aldridge start from the outset next season. Aldridge won’t be a star right away, but has all the tools to develop into a 15/10/1.5 center, which is something we could all use.