Archive for July, 2007
Draft Day Winners

Now that we’ve had a little time to digest, let’s pick out a couple players that really had things go their way on Draft Day, and are worth a bump up on fantasy draft boards.

Jason Richardson, CHA
This was, in my mind, a no-brainer move for Charlotte and Richardson should thrive there.  The Bobcats had built a solid team of youngsters and role-players but they were missing a stud - enter Richardson, who could very well put up Paul Pierce-like numbers as the clear-cut number one option in Charlotte.  He had a down year last year, both due to injury and because of the glut of swingmen playing in Golden State, but now he should be back to 37 mpg and he’ll be the focus of the Charlotte offense.  He’ll never break into the first round unless he picks up his FT%, but he’ll be worth a look late in the second round, with numbers close to 25/6/4 with a steal and a couple of threes.

Monta Ellis, GSW
Let’s be careful here.  Yes, I’m putting Ellis in the “winners” column, as the Warriors dealt away Jason Richardson, and likely won’t re-sign Mickael Pietrus.  And, yes, he’s entering his third year in the league, straight out of high school, meaning age-wise he’s ready for a jump.  But let’s not go crazy and say he’s a potential third-round pick, like some other fantasy site has said.  First of all, he saw an astounding 34 mpg last year, so it’s not like he’s going to see a big bump in minutes.  Secondly, he’s not a three-point shooter (only 27% last year), so he won’t contribute much there, which is a problem for a guard.  Finally, there have been some reports that Ellis hasn’t exactly surrounded himself with “good people,” so take that for what it’s worth.  Is he going to be a nice mid-round pick?  Sure.  But he’s not going to be a stud this year.  Probably.

Gren Oden, POR
Well, that worked out just about as well as it could have for Oden, didn’t it?  He’s going to have every opportunity to play 30-35 mpg, and they got rid of Zach Randolph, meaning he’s going to have room in the post offensively.  There was never a question that Oden was going to find enough PT to be effective, but the Blazers seem to be doing all the right things in getting him comfortable and ready to be a focus of their game plan.  I’m still on the fence as to where he should b drafted, though.  Third round?  Maybe?

LaMarcus Aldridge, POR
Aldridge is going to be a hot commodity on fantasy draft day, and with good reason.  There’s a lot to like here, and now that Zach Randolph is out of the Way, it looks like the door is open for Aldridge to see the 35 mpg he needs to be a fantasy stud.  But there are a couple more reasons to like Aldridge as well.  With his new frontcourt mate Oden being more ready defensively than offensively, Aldridge will be counted on to provide a lot of low-post scoring, something that he showed a nice ability to do last year.  Aditionally, Oden’s shot-blocking threat will push defenses towards Aldridge even more, so he should be in for a nice bump in blocks per minute as well.  Aldridge should be good for - at a minimum - 15/8 with 2 blocks, but I’ve been convincing myself lately that it could be more like 20 points and 2.5 blocks.

Acie Law IV, ATL
Let’s go back to that time-tested fantasy value equation: Playing time + position scarcity = Value.  I happen to think that Law landed in a spectacular spot in Atlanta.  He’s not necessarily a true PG but he fits in perfectly next to Joe Johnson, who handles most of the distributing duties anyways.  The only question mark for Law is if he’ll get enough PT or if he’ll end up splitting time with Speedy Claxton, Anthony Johnson and Tyronne Lue.  He could very well end up in the fantasy no man’s land of 20 mpg.  But of all the mid-round picks, he’s probably got the best chance of having fantasy value.