OK, so not every late pick we recommend is going to be exciting.  But sometimes you need roster fillers who you can plug into those utility slots.  None of these guys have top-50 potential or anything but all of them could top out in the 70’s or 80’s if a few things go right and if you can get them in the 10th, 11th, 12th rounds, then you might have gotten some sweet value:

Wally Szczerbiak
Wally World was sort of an afterthought in the Sonics offseason what with Rashard Lewis leaving, Ray Allen getting traded, and Kevin Durant and Jeff Green showing up.  But it wouldn’t surprise me to see him lead the Sonics in scoring this year.  People are always hesitant to draft him because of the injuries, but once you’re drafting your utility and bench guys, what are you really risking?  He’s talking the way that fantasy players like, too:  “I’ve had a couple of tough years with surgeries the last two seasons,” he said at Sonics Media Day. “That’s something I’ve got to do - just stay healthy. When I stay healthy, I can be a pretty good player in this league. That’s my focus this year.”  He’s still got great percentages for a long bomber, and he can contribute a bit in boards, but the points and 3’s are where Wally will leave his mark.  He may have fallen a bit too much on people’s draft boards, and should definitely be drafted.

Steve Francis
Here’s what we know about Stevie Franchise: 1. When he’s unhappy, he’s a bad player.  2. When he’s happy, he’s a good player.  3. He’s happy in Houston.  4. One time I saw him outside the Whole Foods in Silver Spring, MD.  The minutes are certainly going to be an issue but for the first time in his career he had a legitimate chance to decide where he wanted to play and he went right back to Houston.  He’s only 31, and while he was hideous in New York last year, the year before, in Orlando, he put up 16/4/5 with a steal.  It’s tough to know how much of a step he’s lost but he’s really only a year and a half away from being a top-50 player, so he’s a decent risk to take if you can get him late.

Troy Murphy
Now, I owned Murphy for much of last year so I know all about how that went: badly.  But he was so dependable over the previous few seasons that it’s not at all unreasonable to think he’ll come back this year and be a 14-10 guy with a three a game.  He’s got a new coach, which should help, and he’s had all summer to get used to his new teammates.  Plus, Jermaine O’Neal is always an injury risk and that could give Murphy’s value a bump.  This actually isn’t at all a question of talent or ability - at 27, Murphy is in his prime - it’s just a matter of minutes.  It’s also worth noting that while his other numbers dipped in conjunction with his loss of PT last year, his 3PT numbers stayed the same, so he’s showing a bit more of a willingness to fire it up from the arc.  It looks like he’ll still qualify at C as well, which will help his value a bit.  I like Murphy as a bounce-back candidate this year.

Mark Blount
Seriously, who else is going to play center for the Timberwolves? He’ll still see plenty of minutes, might play a bigger role in an offense where he and Ricky Davis are the only vets, and the guy has played in 80+ games in each of the last five seasons.  He’s not going to blow anyone away but he qualifies at C and was at 95 on the TPR last year (129 on the APR) and he’s a fine 3rd center, despite all of his faults.  Don’t be embarrassed to take him in the last few rounds of the draft.

So last year was a pretty lame year for rookies - so bad that the ROY, Brandon Roy, pulled down the award despite missing 25 games.  Outside of Roy, actually, not a single rookie was in the top 140 on the APR.  (Can that be true? Maybe I’m missing somebody?)  Anyhow, that was then, and this is now, and despite already losing one of it’s crown jewels for the season, this year is supposed to be much stronger.  SO let’s take a look at some of the guys you’ll be chosing from in the last few rounds of the fantasy draft (I think Kevin Durant might be gone by then, so we’ll skip him)…

Jeff Green
FBB got a good look at Green these past two years as his Hoyas team was on our local DC television a lot, and I gotta say, I don’t love his game.  He might have been a ‘do-it-all’ kinda guy, but watching the Hoyas, you ALWAYS noticed Roy Hibbert, but you didn’t always notice Green.  He had a tendency to disappear in college and that worries me.  He’s one of those guys where, while he might do everything pretty well, he’s not great at any one thing.  Yes he could be a great glue guy, but glue isn’t a fantasy stat.  He reminds me of a Shane Battier type, who if he gets enough minutes will have decent value but even then will be on the fringes of fantasy value.  Making matters worse, he’s a G/F, so it’s not like he’ll be helping at a scarcity position.  I think I’d look elsewhere for a late-round pick.

Al Thornton
Lots of people are big on Grandpa Al because of Elton Brand’s injury.  At first, I was less convinced, but I think I’ve turned around.  I first thought that Thornton’s age (23) was a negative, but that’s in terms of long-term value - for this year, it’s a positive.  His body is developed enough that he’ll be able to handle the rigors of an NBA season.  So what if he’ll never be a superstar?  All we want right now is for him to fill in nicely for Brand.  The minutes will certainly be there for the taking, so it’s all baout performance for Thorton, and the preseason has shown some positive results.  Yes, he turns the ball over - a lot - but he’s also a triple threat possibility, contributing in 3’s, steals, and blocks, and he’s had decent percentages in college as well.  Thornton is worth a look to stash on your bench if you can get him late enough.

Acie Law IV
I was pretty high on Law coming out of the draft and I am still pretty excited about his possibilities this year.  He still hasn’t found his stroke from long range but he’s been getting plenty of minutes, impressing the Hawks brass (not sure if that’s good or bad, tho) and in competition for the starting PG spot.  Considering that his competition is Speedy Claxton, even if he doesn’t win it with his play, he might get it though injury either way.  Law’s rebounding numbers have been particularly impressive early on here, and he’s a guy who needs to be drafted in every league as long as his wrist is OK.

Marco Belinelli
Belinelli is not going to go undrafted - after blowing up in the summer league and seeing Monta Ellis get hurt early, Belinelli is a familiar name for fantasy players.  His upside is as big as any rookie out there outside of Durant, due to his shooting ability.  He won’t contribute much in terms of boards or assists but with enough minutes he should be a nice source of 3’s and steals, sort of a Manu Ginobili type who has sneaky value.  He will be subject to the whims of Don Nelson, which is never easy, but with Ellis and Baron Davis both injury risks, he should have plenty of opportunity for playing time.  I’d be OK with drafting him as a utility guy, but I’d be very happy putting him on my bench.

Juan Carlos Navarro
The Robin to Pau Gasol’s Batman, he will get minutes because Pau wants him to.  He’s supposed to be a great scorer (they call him “La Bomba”) and the Grizzlies seem like the kind of team that will let him shoot - just look at what Mike Miller did last year once they let him play his game.  That said, he’s not going to contribute in boards or assists.  Even if he gets the minutes, doesn’t he sound a bit like Bostjan Nachbar?  Just a thought.  He’s been getting tons of minutes in the preseason and scoring in bunches, and is probably worth a look in the 8-10th round area, but I might let someone else take that risk.

Luis Scola
Scola is supposed to be hot stuff, apparently.  He won the MVP award at the FIBA Americas tournament, is going to be the starting PF for the Rockets,  and looks like a good source of points and boards.  There are 2 questions for Scola.  One, does he do anything other than points and boards, and two, how much is he really going to get the ball?  On the first question, he doesn’t appear to be a big blocks or steals guy, and unlike most Euros he appears to never shoot threes.  His FT is not so great either, hovering around the 70% mark.  So it doesn’t look like he’ll do much besides points and boards.  On the second question, He’s no better than the 4th option at any point for the Rockets, who are totally loaded witih scorers.  Is he really going to see more than 7-8 shots a game?  I’m pretty skeptical.  That said, the minutes will definitely be there and he’s certainly worth owning but I think he’ll be drafted a little bit higher than his actual value.  I’d let someone else take him unless I can get him on my bench, but I don’t think he’ll last that long.

Sleepers.  Everyone’s got ‘em.  Over the next few days, we’re going to take a look-see at some of the guys you could (should?) be looking at with your late round picks.  One of the groups that I like looking at late are guys who are still young but have played a few unspectacular years so that they may be written off by some folks, but could have the doors open up for them this year.  For example:

Robert Swift
There are a lot of eyes on the Sonics and their youth movement but I haven’t seen a lot of talk about his guy, who I think will have more value than Jeff Green this year.  Swift missed all of last year with a knee injury and could be limited early.  But look at the facts: He will only be 21 years old when the season starts.  At 19 years old – two years ago – his per 30 minute stats were 9.1/8 with 1.7 blocks, and now he’s come back with a new knee and a new attitude.  He’s got huge tattoos all over and seems to be ready to mash it up inside.  Guys typically make a lot of improvement between 19 and 21, but Swift has been off everyone’s radar screen so his name may not show up on a lot of draft boards.  Still, he could be the starting center for the Sonics and numbers like 12/10/2 aren’t unrealistic for him this year.  I wouldn’t necessarily reach for him for a utility slot given his knee issues but he could be a great asset to hide on your bench for a month of two until he gets into playing form.

Andray Blatche
Like Swift, Blatche will only be 21 when the season starts.  Unlike Swift, he will not be dealing with any injuries.  The question for Blatche, more than anything, is PT.  He has the potential to be a nice utility player as he contributes in pretty much every category expect FT%, but will he get minutes on a team trying to make the playoffs?  If so, it’s going to be at center, where Etan Thomas’s heart issues leave about 20 minutes of PT up for grabs, and Blatche also has the ability to play the 4 and occasionally the 3.  But he’s going to need to be a major part of the Wizards rotation (i.e. at least 25 mpg) to have any sort of value from a fantasy perspective.  He’ll be fighting for those minutes with Darius Songaila, Oleksiy Pecherov and maybe even Dominic McGuire, but with Michael Ruffin and Calvin Booth gone, the minutes will certainly be available.  Blatche is absolutely worth a late-round flyer to see if he can work himself into the rotation.

Rashad McCants
McCants is a little bit older than the first few guys on this list at 23, but he’s been hidden just as much as anyone the last few years, struggling with knee surgery and getting stuck behind vets like Troy Hudson, Mike James, and Marko Jaric in the Timberwolves backcourt.  But signs are pointing to a potential breakout year for McCants.  First, his knee is apparently all better as he’s played major minutes in both of the Wolves preseason games.  Second, a ton of those vets have been cleared out – Hudson was bought out, James traded, and Trenton Hassell was also dealt.  Yes, there are some new guys fighting for time like Gerald Green, but with Randy Foye dealing with tendonitis already there may be more minutes available than we think.  The thing that concerns me with McCants is upside – there’s just not a lot of it.  He doesn’t rebound or pass very well, and he’s atrocious from the line for a SG.  Still, we have to give him a pass for last year due to his knee problems I think, and he’s going to give you some value in threes if nothing else.  McCants is a fine, very late-round pick.

Jason Maxiell
Maxiell has all the signs of a guy who is ready to bust out.  The playing time is available – with Chris Webber out of the picture and Nazi Mohammed redecorating his doghouse, Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace are the only 2 viable bigs left on the Pistons roster.  The good summer stories are there – he showed up 30 pounds lighter to the Summer League and dominated there (and even shot 76% from the line!).  And the big man stats are there – he’s a blocks/boards machine.  Maxiell is probably the least risky of the guys on this list and for that reason could probably be drafted as a utility guy though we’d like him better starting off the year on our bench.  But his upside is as high as anyone’s and for that reason he’s worth the chance if you want to reach for him a few rounds early.

Lots of second-tier PG and C in this batch. It’s a case of who you like better, really. Do you want the upside – and horrible FG% — of Raymond Felton? Or do you want the boring consistency of Andre Miller? Do you want the 1/1/1 all-around game of Rasheed Wallace? Or do you want a low-scoring, blocks machine like Samuel Dalembert of Andris Bidrins.

51. Jason Terry: He’s quickly becoming the most underdrafted player in the league. Terry’s been remarkably consistent during his three seasons in Dallas, morphing from a 43% shooter during his Atlanta days to a 48% shooting in the Big D. It was nice to see his assists bump back up to 5.2 last year, although that could drop if Devin Harris finally asserts himself. Still, there isn’t anyone with a better history of good health, and you can mark him down for at least 16 ppg and 2 3pg with solid percentages. He’s finished with third round value in each of the last two seasons, but because of his lack of upside there’s no chance he’ll go that high. Few people plan on drafting Jason Terry, it just gets to a point where you can’t pass him up.

52. Ben Gordon: Weird – Gordon actually averaged nearly two points more per game coming off the bench than he did as a starter. He’ll be starting this year and he’ll score plenty. Gordon became much more efficient last year, going from 42.2 to 45.3% from the field and getting to the line a full two times more per game, and he nailed 86% of those freebies. He simply doesn’t get many steals and turns the ball over like crazy, so knock him down in TO leagues. Don’t except tons more minutes just because he’ll be starting. It’s still Scott Skiles on the bench and even though he was a bit better last year, he’s still Scott Skiles. Thabo Sefolosha will get in there when the team needs some help on D and Adrian Griffin will get in there when Skiles feels like sending a message. Gordon managed to finish top 25 last year because of the rash of injuries around the league, but his per-game average of 50 is a more accurate reading of his true value.

53. Mehmet Okur: Okur had a deceptively unproductive year. He hit some crucial three-pointers that helped gain him a reputation as a clutch player, but for fantasy purposes he took a big step back. The actual increase in 3s was modest – 1.6 per from 1 – but he lost two rebounds, down to 7.2, and almost half a block, down to 0.5. Those are tough numbers to overcome from a center, especially since his 46% from the field didn’t make up for it. If Boozer were to get hurt Okur’s rebound numbers would probably rise, and the law of averages say he should block a few more shots, but he’s not someone to reach for.

54. Rasheed Wallace: It was a down season, but it wasn’t a disaster. Wallace still finished around the top 50, put up the steals and blocks numbers you’d expect and hit a solid 1.4 3pg. His FG% continued to fall and he averaged his fewest points since the first Clinton administration. The big thing to point out is that Wallace no longer qualifies at center in some leagues, which gives his value a serious hit. He’s still a solid mid-round pick, but don’t think you’ve filled a need in the middle by taking him.

55. Mo Williams: Who couldn’t see that breakout season coming – a shoot-first point guard handed big minutes and the reigns of a fast-paced offense in a contract season? Yes, please. Williams didn’t disappoint, finishing as a top 50 player on per-game numbers. Can he come through with an encore performance? It’s quite possible, mainly because Milwaukee has very few other PG options on the roster, meaning Williams could be in store for more big minutes. Still, last year is about as good as Williams gets. He produces because of opportunity and minutes, not because he’s a superstar.

56. Lamar Odom: Odom’s never been a particularly strong bet to play 75 games in a season and the fact that he’s beginning the year with big injury questions doesn’t bode well. It also doesn’t bode well that he’s in the same exact situation in L.A. where he’s basically left to grab boards and live on Kobe Bryant’s scraps. His big assist numbers for the PF spot – and the fact that he gives you the rebounds you want, as well – gives him sly fantasy value. If the Lakers ever make a deal to bring another star to L.A., Odom is almost definitely going the other way which in theory is a good thing.

57. LaMarcus Aldridge: If you’re everyone’s favorite sleeper, you can’t be a sleeper anymore. Aldridge was mighty impressive during his rookie season, especially because Nate McMillain made him earn everything. He showed impressive scoring ability, especially with his jump shot, but he wasn’t too shabby on the boards or getting blocks. Fouls were a big problem and he’s going to have to bulk up if he has any hope of staying on the court at center. Greg Oden’s absence means that Aldridge should be able to get as many minutes as he can handle, which has fantasy players dreaming of big things. If you want him, you’re going to have to go get him, because he certainly won’t drop.

58. Mike Bibby: Maybe we should have FBB commenter bublitchki write this one. I thought we’d have to put Bibby in the Witness Protection Program for how much bublitchki – and surely plenty of other fantasy owners – wanted to kill him. But Bibby was his usual self after the ASB, except his scoring was down as he realized that maybe he should let the team’s best scorer – that’d be Kevin Martin, obviously – take more shots. His assists were below 4 after the break but his 3s were right near 3, a fair trade off, especially since Bibby’s never really been an assists machine. Bibby was a top 30 player in 05-06; sure he’s getting older and the Kings are getting a lot suckier but not that much could have changed. Because he was such a massive disappointment last year he’ll probably fall a round or two more than he should and could make for a solid mid-round addition.

59. Raymond Felton: I’d really like to see the dude shoot 40% before I put him on my team. Felton’s a PG on the rise who could be in for a breakout season, but man does that FG% kill you. If you play in a TO league, it’s a double whammy. On the plus side, Felton has Jason Richardson around now to dish the ball to, as well as relieve him of some pressure. He’s got no health issues and no Brevin Knight issues, so a 17/4/8.5 season with healthy doses of 3s and steals isn’t out of the question. But he will have to put up those numbers unless he has a miraculous bout of accuracy from the field. It’s possible and since it’ll only cost a mid-round pick it might be a risk worth taking.

60. Kevin Durant: I don’t do rookies. Sometimes it means I lose out on a good player. Most of the time it means I take a more reliable player while someone else is stuck with an inconsistent, frustrating player. Durant should score plenty of points, although if he’s really going to play SG, we’ll see how many boards he gets. Maybe if he’s guarding smaller guys it’ll help him get some blocks? Will it be more exciting to draft Kevin Durant than Richard Hamilton? Yes. Does Kevin Durant have a greater upside for 07-08 than Richard Hamilton. Yes. Will he end up being more valuable at the end of April? Maybe, but that’s for you to experience first hand.

61. David West: Fantasy owners won’t like that he’s never averaged more than 1 steal, block or 3 in any season, but West gets the job done. Think of him as a young Shareef Abdur-Rahim, although the presence of board monster Tyson Chandler might keep him just below the 20/10 plateau on the rebound side of things. He’s a good shooter (49%/80% for his career), is young and is a definite focal point of the Hornets’ offense. His elbow problems from last year shouldn’t linger to this year – they sure didn’t linger into the last month of last season – and he should be a steadying force on fantasy rosters for years to come.

62. Samuel Dalembert: He finally managed to start 82 games, but it was still a slightly disappointing season for Dalembert. He did manage to finish at 47/63 in the rankings, but those hoping for dominance in blocks got merely a very good performance, as his 1.9 per game came just a year after he averaged 2.4 while receiving 4 fewer minutes per contest. You never like when big men get foot problems, and that’s what Dalembert is fighting right now. Those have a tendency to cause problems, although Pau Gasol came back just fine last year. The Sixers frontcourt is ridiculously thin – they barely have a starting PF, let alone a backup C – so this could be the year Dalembert starts to see big minutes. If the injury scares people away, he could be a nice value pick.

63. Tyson Chandler: There’s just something unsettling about using a pick in the first half of the draft on a player who will be lucky to average 10 ppg. It leaves very little margin for error, since scoring contributions account for four categories. Last year Chandler shot a ridiculous 62% from the field, and there’s just no way he can repeat that. Consistency has never been his strong suit and he’s still never averaged more than 1.8 bpg. He grabs tons of boards and has done a good job staying on the court, but it’s not like he really has any chance to improve on what he did last year. Just keep that in mind when you’re considering him in the 5th or 6th round.

64. Andre Miller: One of the most boring and reliable players out there. You can pretty much use permanent marker to give him his 13.5/8.2/4.5, 1.5 steals, 46% shooting and no 3s to speak of. His assists went down once he went to a Philly but the rest of his numbers stayed pretty much the same. He has absolutely no upside, so don’t reach for him – not that you’ll have to, of course – and John Hollinger thinks he’s in for a big drop-off, but he also picked the Wizards to win just 33 games this season, so, y’know, fuck that guy.

65. Andris Biedrins: And that’s why you have to be aggressive on the waiver wire early on. Biedrins went from afterthought to fantasy force within the first few weeks of the season. He never did match his spectacular November, in which he averaged 11.1/9.8/1.4 with 2.8 blocks on 65% shooting, but that’s nothing to be ashamed of. He had his ups and downs, had a very disappointing end of the regular season and can’t hit free throws. But he looks like a legit – albeit low-volume – 60% shooter and at 21 has plenty of room for improvement. He’s unproven and has to deal with the whims of Don Nelson, but he makes one of the better C2s around and can certainly pass as C1 if the first few rounds of your draft take you elsewhere.

66. Corey Maggette: Maggette always puts up the same numbers; it’s his minutes that fluctuate. He’s been a very frustrating player to own the last two seasons, first because of injury and then because of lack of PT, but the stars have aligned this year. Guaranteed starting spot, contract year, no Elton Brand = big things. At least that’s how it should be. Maggette is one of those swingmen who could play 35 mpg and still not average a 3, steal or block, so that limits his upside. But 23 ppg, dominance from the charity stripe and decent contributions elsewhere are very possible. Health has always been an issue, but he has extra incentive to stay healthy this year. He’s one of our favorite mid-round picks this year.

67. Richard Hamilton: Hamilton did exactly what you’d expect. He averaged 20 ppg with solid percentages and a little bit of everything else. He missed a few more games than usual, but nothing to worry about. He’s one of the most predictable players in the game, in a good way. Expect more of the same.

68. Zach Randolph: This should be fun. Randolph is an uncanny force on the blocks, but so is Eddy Curry. Curry doesn’t like to pass. Randolph doesn’t like to pass, but compared to Curry he’s a regular Rod Strickland. Also, all of those guys are sorta fat. It’s easy to predict the worst for Randolph, but he’s always made sure to get his numbers. Those numbers, of course, being points and rebounds. Curry’s already hurt, he gets tired and in foul trouble a lot. You’re not going to have to pay full price for his excellent season last year, so he’s not the worst mid-round choice.

69. T.J. Ford: Last year Ford played the best ball of his career — by far — but the presence of Jose Calderon kept him from making a major leap in fantasy circles. Despite seeing almost 6 fewer minutes per game, Ford averaged career highs in points and assists and matched his career high in steals. His numbers of 14.0, 7.9 and 1.4 in those three categories are exactly what you want from a PG, and he did all that with just under 30 mpg. Unfortunately for Ford, he still has Calderon around to steal playing time and it’s hard to see him performing as well as he did last season. Ford has missed just 17 regular season contests over the past two years, so he appears to be no more an injury risk as most players, but until the PT situation is sorted out, he’s just another mid-round PG2.

70. Monta Ellis: He’s not paralyzed, so that’s good. That scare may have cooled down the hype machine a bit on Ellis, which is probably for the best. The soon-to-be-22-year-old has great skills, but let’s not anoint him a fantasy savior yet. Even if he doesn’t start he’ll see plenty of minutes, a la Leandro Barbosa, but you get the feeling that even if Baron Davis goes down he might not get the starting nod. His game is well-rounded and he can finish around the basket, so that 47.5% from the field might not be a fluke. Remember that he did average 34+ mpg last year. He’s really not going to see much more than that. He’s the kind of player that someone will likely reach for, so you better really like him to draft him.

71. Richard Jefferson: You can almost cross a line through last year. He got hurt early on, was banged up for most of the season and got hurt again. He was very solid in the playoffs, though, averaging nearly 20 ppg while out there for nearly 41 mpg. At just 27 years old he seems like a prime candidate for a bounceback season, and it’s very much worth remembering that in 05-06 he finished the season as a Top 35 player. He doesn’t excel in any of the specialty categories, which means people sometimes look past him, making him one of those big-minute SF that have become somewhat undervalued in “serious” leagues. He makes a very good mid-round target.

72. Andrei Kirilenko: It’s anybody’s guess, really. If you drafted AK47 last year, you didn’t win your league. It’s pretty much as simple as that. It was a total disaster and now nobody knows what to expect now. The trade demand followed by the “patching up” with Jerry Sloan doesn’t really change anything. He’s only 26, so he obviously has the ability to put up numbers befitting a top 20 season, something he’s done before. But this is clearly the team of Williams and Boozer now. Kirilenko can still be get some blocks and steals, but he’ll have to fight for his offense. Think of him as a better Shane Battier, not someone to build your team around.

73. Danny Granger: Granger’s a popular breakout candidate – and we do like him – but he did play 34 mpg last year. If he can become a 40 mpg player, then he’s in for some serious fantasy value. If not, he might disappoint. His 3PA went from 1.2 per game to 3.5 last year. If he continues to fire away it will do wonders for his fantasy value. Like Tayshaun Prince he’s a lanky defensive stopper who doesn’t really get many steals or blocks, rendering him not as useful for fantasy purposes.

74. Al Harrington: He qualifies at center in many leagues, which could be a good thing or a bad thing depending on how you manage your roster. It’s often tough to find useful players to plug into those center spots, but if one of those guys is good for 6.5 boards and 0.3 blocks per game you’re likely to be in a hole anyway. Harrington will likely do what he always does: 17/6/2.5, mediocre percentages and more 3s than usual since he’s playing for Nellie.

75. Ben Wallace: That went about as expected. Big Ben had a rough start in Chicago, but his final numbers weren’t terrible, simply the expected decline for a 32-year-old big man who gets by on hustle. It’s hard to argue with 10.7 boards, 1.4 steals and 2 blocks, and he even chipped in 2.4 dimes. But he’s a liability everywhere else and the trends aren’t pretty – six straight years of declining blocks and five straight years of declining boards. By now everyone should know that this is not the dominating player of 01 to 03 and that player is highly, highly unlikely to ever come back. He’s still good for those boards and some blocks, but he’s just another non-scoring, mid-round center now.

While we advocate taking the best player available throughout the first four rounds or so, there’s not that much to separate many of the players in this batch so taking guys that complement your first few picks might be the best way to go. Got a couple of guards early on? Might want to go for Al Jefferson. Went with some bigs? Maybe Deron Williams or Kirk Hinrich is what you need.

26. Michael Redd: His career-best season was rudely interrupted by a strained left knee, but Redd was no worse for the wear upon his return. Redd doesn’t do enough to be a true fantasy stud, but he’s exactly what you want in a supporting star. He plays big minutes, is the focal point of his team’s offense, is a force in one category (3s, duh) and chips in a little bit everywhere else. The Bucks have plenty of offensive firepower, but Redd will get his. He’s not the most exciting pick in the third round, but he’ll do just fine.

27. Carlos Boozer: He simply will not block shots, but Boozer is still a fantasy force. His shooting is for real, as he’s one of the most dominant forces in FG%. He’s also a legit 20/10 threat, especially with Deron Williams finding him for easy baskets so often. His ability to stay on the court remains in question, although it was good to see him miss just 8 games with a knee injury that seemingly could have lingered for a while. Boozer has the ability to repeat last year’s numbers, but asking to improve upon them might be a bit much. Don’t forget to get some blocks elsewhere if you draft him.

28. Joe Johnson: Johnson carried a huge burden again for the Hawks before missing the final 21 games with a calf injury. It might turn out to be a good thing. After averaging nearly 41 mpg in 82 contests in 05-06, he was averaging 41.2 mpg in 06-07 before being shut down. Johnson had basically the same season as Michael Redd, except Johnson gets a few more assists and misses more free throws. Those 6.5 apg he averaged in 05-06 won’t be back since the Hawks don’t need him at the point anymore – they hope – so that limits his upside. His injury combined with the fact he plays for the Hawks might allow him to slip to the fourth round. If that happens, he’s a steal.

29. Caron Butler: Tuff Juice took it to another level last year. Whenever a player does that, the big question the next year is if he can repeat it. He set career highs in FG%, FTA, rebounds, assists, steals and points, so that’s a lot of gains to maintain. On a per-game basis he was the #15 player in the league, but since there’s no chance you’ll have to go that high to get him, he’s not a huge risk. The Wizards have a deeper squad this year – at least in theory – and Butler needs those big minutes to accumulate his numbers. It’s not like he’s in danger of getting benched, but there’s a big difference between 40 mpg and 36 mpg. He’ll be very good, but he might not be great again.

30. Gerald Wallace: He stayed relatively healthy and established a new career high in scoring, but the lack of hustle stats made Wallace’s season a slight disappointment. After racking up 2.1 bpg in 05-06, Wallace totaled just 5 blocks in his first 17 games. He had a few good spurts but never really got it going, averaging 1 bpg on the year. He did grab 2 spg – down from 2.5 per game in 05-06 – but even that was a slight disappointment since he saw a career high in minutes. Also, he “inadvertently” knocked Gilbert Arenas out for the year, so a big “fuck him” for that. Wallace played huge minutes during the final months of the season, topping 40 on a regular basis. The presence of Jason Richardson could cause his scoring to drop a bit, but Wallace profiles as a third round pick, albeit one with some definite question marks.

31. Baron Davis: That’s about as good as you can hope for from Baron. He missed 19 games and was pretty awesome when he played, finishing as a top 15 player. Missing 19 games is pretty much the minimum you can except from Davis at this point and he’s unlikely to improve on last year’s play. He finished the season at #31, so put it all together and you should not take him before that spot. He shot a career high 44% last year, so don’t be surprised to see that tumble a bit, but if it does that means he’ll probably improve on his 1.4 3pg, his lowest since 00-01. He’s the ultimate high risk/high reward pick and there are only a few combinations of players you could draft in the first two rounds to make Davis an especially reasonable third rounder.

32. Deron Williams: I was a proud Williams owner last year, and I watched plenty of Jazz games, so let me tell you that he is the real deal. He was so excellent last year that he might not be able to improve too much this season, and he’s better appreciated in real life, whereas Chris Paul is more valuable in fantasy. His big assists numbers might take a hit if Carlos Boozer were to get injured, and you kind of wish he’d grab more rebounds if he wasn’t going to get too many steals. He attempted slightly more but made fewer 3s last year than in his rookie season, so there’s room for improvement there. He slowed down a bit in the second half before coming alive in the playoffs, so if he puts together for the whole season he could finish a top 25 player.

33. Al Jefferson: At this point the only negative thing you can really say about Jefferson is that he’s never played more than 71 games in a season. That’s a bit worrisome for a guy who’s going to be one of the top scoring threats on his team, meaning he’ll be expending plenty of energy every night. But the 22-year-old’s game has blossomed beautifully, and post-ASB numbers of 19.8/11.5/1.8 with 1.7 blocks on 55% shooting are simply fantastic. That post-ASB Celtics should be about as good as the Wolves team Jefferson will play for this season – meaning Jefferson should have free reign to dominate as he pleases – although the big men he’ll face out West should provide some tougher competition. He qualifies at center, likely has some improvement left in him and might even push 70% at the line. He obviously has less of a track record than many other stars, but there are plenty of positive signs.

34. Dwight Howard: First, the good, and there’s plenty. He’s a 21-year-old center who hasn’t missed a game in his three years and is coming off a season in which he averaged 17.6/12.3/1.9 with 1.9 blocks on 60.5% shooting. He even chipped in nearly a steal per game. Only the free throws are holding him back, and they are really holding him back. In weekly H2H leagues this doesn’t matter nearly as much, his it can be a killer in roto leagues. If he was merely a league average free throw shooter, Howard would have been a top 5 player last year. Unfortunately, he’s lost nearly 10 points at the line since his rookie year, dropping to 58.6% last year while taking just over 8 attempts per game. We don’t endorse punting a category on draft day, so Howard would have to be taken in the third round for him to be worth the damage he’ll do. Chances are good someone will jump before that.

35. Tracy McGrady: There’s just something that rubs me the wrong way about McGrady. I feel the way about him the way most people feel about Vince Carter. I’ve long maintained that only Kobe Bryant has as much pure skill as McGrady, but what does McGrady have to show for it? Some gaudy scoring numbers from a few years ago. Maybe getting out from under the oppressive Jeff Van Gundy will help McGrady flourish, but his three years in Houston so far have been marked by inaccurate, high-volume shooting, injuries and general indifference. He’s a career 44% shooter in 683 games, so you know what to expect there. He’s also not a particularly good free throw shooter. If he takes to Rick Adelman’s offense he can no doubt put up 30 ppg, and he should be good for at least 5 or 6 boards and assists per game. If everything goes right he could be a top 15 player, so if you like him and want to take him in the third round, go for it.

36. Kirk Hinrich: The only thing Hinrich blows you away with is his consistency. For three straight seasons he’s put up roughly the same numbers, with the big difference being improved efficiency. His 39.7% shooting from 04-05 was up to a very respectable 44.8% last year, and he didn’t sacrifice any 3s to get there. He rarely has jaw-dropping huge games, but has missed just 3 contests over the past two seasons. With last year’s rash of injuries around the league, you know how much that means; it’s a big reason why he finished the season as a top 20 player. He’s unlikely to get much better, but he’s pretty damn good as it is and if you miss out on one of the very top point guards, he can certainly work as a PG1.

37. Kevin Martin: No player made his owners happier last year than Kevin Martin. And he sure made us proud here at FBB, as we told you – pleaded with you – to go get him in your draft. Last year was no fluke, but it doesn’t mean he’ll be able to repeat those numbers. Martin is perhaps the most deceptively quick player in the league, drawing fouls like nobody’s business simply because his defender was a step slow. There’s no way a rail-thin guy like him should be taking 7 free throws per game, but that’s exactly what Martin did. November was his best month but he never really faltered, he just didn’t maintain his early FG%, which was to be expected. He’s accurate, efficient and helps out everywhere. Now that the Kings have committed big money to him, he will be assured big minutes, which should help offset any statistical decreases in his game. He won’t be a bargain this year, but he’s the real deal.

38. Jason Richardson: He was a monumental bust in the first half but rewarded patient owners, or teams that traded for him, with a dynamite second half. Those second half numbers of 18.6/5.9/4.0 with 2.9 3s, 1.4 spg and 0.8 bpg were up to the level that J-Rich had established for himself over the past couple seasons. The big question now is how he will react to the change of scenery taking him to Charlotte. Richardson automatically becomes the Bobcats’ starting SG and go-to scorer. There might be an adjustment period, but Richardson is still in his prime and has a solid all-around roto game, one that made him a 3^rd round value in 05-06. His FT% woes are for real, though, be warned. He’s a good reason why you should go with a PG or C if it’s a toss up in the first few rounds – solid swingmen like Richardson will be there a few rounds later.

39. Jermaine O’Neal: Certainly one of the most frustrating players to own in all of fantasy hoops. O’Neal managed to play in 69 contests last year, but it wasn’t a clean 69. (Beavis says, “hehehehehe.”) He missed games during eight different stretches, instead of just one block of 13 games, so his owners were often kept guessing at his availability. His 2.6 bpg were huge, but he reverted to his old ways with a 43.7% from the field, as he settled for tons of jumpers. This was reflected in his 6.5 FTA per game, way down from the 8.9 he averaged in 04-05. For various reasons, O’Neal has missed 82 games over the past three seasons, he’s unhappy in Indiana and that team is a mess. That could make him someone to avoid, but at the same time it could allow him to slip down far enough to the point where he makes a reasonable gamble. He sure as hell won’t go in the second round, where I took him last year.

40. Ron Artest: He’s insane, he’s already suspended for the first 7 games of the year and he takes more bad shots that pretty much anyone in the league. Other than that, Artest is a very solid fantasy contributor. He was a top 30 player last year, despite 44/74 percentages, thanks to positive contributions in every other category. There’s always sizable risk involved with drafting Artest, and his situation with the Kings is unknown at this point. Still, you have to think he’ll come out motivated after missing the first handful of contests, and if he plays 70 games he’ll probably prove to be a good draft-day investment.

41. Josh Howard: Howard stepped his game up to another level last season, but his inability to stay on the court for 80 games remains a worry. But who haven’t we said that about? Howard worked on his long range game and hit 1.3 3pg on a very respectable 38.5% shooting, which added greatly to his fantasy value. He also saw a huge jump in FT%, going from 73.4 to 82.7, so who knows if that’s a fluke. Howard is a pretty safe pick because the roles in Dallas are so well defined. Dirk is #1, Howard and Terry are the next options and Jerry Stackhouse is the scorer off the bench. That means Howard is a good bet to repeat his numbers from last season, and if he manages to stay healthy the entire season, he’ll return good value even if he’s taken in the fourth round.

42. Luol Deng: We had Deng pegged as a breakout player for 06-07, but we didn’t think he’d be that good. Instead of expanding his range, he completely eliminated the long jumper from his repertoire, going from 1.9 3PApg in his rookie season two years ago to just 0.1 last year. The result was 52% from the field, which is certainly more valuable than, say, 0.8 3pg. He was well-rounded everywhere else, throwing up 18.8/7.1/2.5 with 1.2 steals and 0.6 blocks, and he led the team in minutes. He’s still just 22 years old, so we may not have seen the best yet. His lack of one dominant skill means that he’s still overlooked. The numbers say he could be considered in the third round, but he’s likely to be there in the fifth. If that’s the case, grab him and don’t think twice.

43. Antawn Jamison: Jamison came to the Wizards as arguably the most durable player in the league but he’s now missed chunks in two of his three seasons in D.C. It hasn’t affected his game and last year was his best for the Wiz mainly because he became a serious long-range threat, connecting on 2 3pg. He’s one of the most creative scorers in the league, and the increase in 3PA hasn’t had a negative effect on his FG% as he reached 45% last year. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has plenty of miles on him, but his injuries haven’t been chronic things. If he keeps hitting 3s like he did last year that will do wonders in offsetting whatever other declines he might have.

44. Leandro Barbosa: Even without taking into account his dynamic skills, Barbosa’s less of a risk than most bench players because he plays for a team with an extremely thin bench and Steve Nash will rarely top 35 minutes. Barbosa has hit an amazing nearly 44% of his 3s over the past two seasons, so that skill is for real. Barbosa managed 19 starts last year and his numbers in those games were 19.6/3.0/4.9 with 1.7 steals and 2.5 3s in 39 mpg. He’ll turn 25 in the season’s first month, so he might have another gear. Everything is perfect for him except the fact that he comes off the bench. And he still managed to finish 15/38 last year, despite just under 33 mpg. There’s an exception to every rule, and Barbosa’s the exception to the Minutes Above All Else rule. He has less downside than you might think.

45. Brandon Roy: Yes, he was fantastic last season, and maybe those comparisons to D-Wade aren’t completely ridiculous and instead just slightly ridiculous. But one thing he also seems to have in common with Wade is a tendency to be perpetually banged up. His preseason is already a wash and counting on him for 80 games may be a stretch. We’ll see if he can handle being the #1 option with Zach Randolph in New York – that 45.6% from the field could take a dip if he has to take more shots. He’s already 23, but that doesn’t mean he won’t get plenty better. The only real drawback with Roy is that he’s played 57 NBA games while there are other players who will be available at the same time who have put up better numbers over hundreds of games.

46. Emeka Okafor: Okafor was greatly improved in his third season, seeing a startling jump in FG%, from 41.5% to 53.2%. He also became the block machine that we thought he would be after swatting away shot after shot at Connecticut, finishing third in the league with 2.6 bpg. It’s dangerous to expect a player who makes great leaps to hold onto those gains completely, and in Okafor’s case a repeat of the 53% shooting is less likely. A strained calf caused him to miss 15 games, but it was his only injury of the year, which bodes well for the future. His FT% is certainly a liability, and at 25 years old he might be as good as he’s going to get, but who doesn’t want 14.4/11.3 with 2.6 blocks and almost a steal?

47. Ricky Davis: If you saw our mock draft, you’ll see that I spent my fifth round pick on the guy who Gets Buckets. Right now Davis is the most reliable scorer on a young Minnesota squad, which should lead to fantasy success. The problem is that he’s likely to be moved or phased out during the year. At least that’s what everyone says. What we know is that Minnesota has one of the most dysfunctional front offices around, Davis is playing for a new contract and he will make sure he gets his numbers. It might not last long; that’s a definite risk. And it’s not like Davis is a superior talent. He’s a slightly above-average swingman, but one who stays healthy and can handle 40 mpg. He was actually a top 30 player last year (#52 using averages) and should repeat that if he manages to stay in Minnesota all year. But that’s a huge if.

48. Mike Miller: Memphis finally let Miller play big minutes and was rewarded with a very solid season that saw Miller emerge as a top 40 fantasy player. Like many swingmen his value came from drilling tons of 3s and getting enough minutes to put up decent numbers everywhere else. Miller’s always had a tendency to get banged up and he won’t see much more than the 39 mpg he saw last year. There’s no reason he shouldn’t remain a focal point of the Grizzlies’ offense and put up similar numbers to last season. But he’s more likely to take a step back than take a step forward.

49. Tony Parker: He certainly doesn’t do it in the traditional way, but Parker has established himself as one of the most consistent second-tier PGs around. He doesn’t hit 3s, is merely average in steals and has averaged more than 6 apg just once, but his durability and high-percentage shooting make him plenty valuable. He doesn’t even need big minutes, as he averaged just 32.5 per game last season and has never reached the 35 mark. We’ll see if he can maintain his gains at the line – his 78% last year is a clear aberration in his career line – but Parker is still improving and is slowly starting to take over the offense from Duncan. Because of his non-traditional game Parker usually lasts a round longer than he theoretically should.

50. Manu Ginobili: How did he do that? Ginobili turned 27.5 mpg in 75 contests, half of them off the bench, into a top 20 fantasy season. We preach the overriding importance of minutes played, but Ginobili has proven he can succeed in limited PT. Still, he’s constantly banged up and always has to maximize his production since he plays around 10 minutes less than most players he’ll be drafted near. He’ll give you 1.5 3s and steals, solid percentages and a little bit of help everywhere else. He’s proven he’s capable, but I still have a hard time passing up 750 extra minutes another player might receive.

Here is the first installment of the overall rankings. There seem to be a few obvious drops. It’s a good year to have a pick in the top 6, or top 7 depending on how much you like Steve Nash. Those 7 players are sure things. After that there’s a drop at either 12 or 13, as the status of Dwyane Wade makes him a real wildcard at this point. For the rest of the top 25 it’s really whoever you like best. You could really make arguments for pretty much everyone on here, although there does seem to be a bit of a drop after 23, or 24 depending on if you would dare use a 2^nd round pick on Marcus Camby.

(For the record, these rankings are assuming non-turnover, non-H2H roto leagues.)

1. Kobe Bryant: Really, who didn’t demand a trade this summer? Bryant isn’t going anywhere and he will spend another season carrying the load for the Lakers and putting up eye-popping numbers in the process. He was the #2 player per game last year and #1 overall. He was #2 both per game and overall in 05-06. He’s still in his prime, isn’t a substantial injury risk and will once again be the focal point of his team’s offense more than any other player in the league. He’s not a no-brainer choice at #1 like KG was for so many years, but he’s the top player on this board.

2. Kevin Garnett: How much will the change of scenery affect his numbers? That’s the big question with the Big Ticket. He’s put up roughly the same numbers for the past decade, although his assists have dropped off big time over the past two years. Still, his 7-category fantasy dominance is unquestioned. When you’ve got such a good thing going, a change usually isn’t for the best, but Garnett should be fine in his new home. At the end of the year expect another 21/13/5, 50/80, 1.5/1.5 season. And if something happens to Kendrick Perkins and Garnett gets some run at center? Well, then he becomes a fantasy god.

3. Shawn Marion: The Matrix isn’t going anywhere, OK? He’ll remain in Phoenix, the best possible fantasy situation for him. That said, cracks are starting to show in Marion’s facade. He only missed two games last year, but was frequently banged up, dropping from 40.3 mpg to 37.6 mpg. He averaged just 17.5 ppg, his lowest since 00-01 and didn’t average double-digit boards after topping 11 per game in the previous two seasons. All that said, he finished the season as the #2 ranked player (#5 per game). It seemed like this was the year people were finally looking at Marion as a legit #1 pick, but these questions have tempered that. He remains a no-brainer for the top 5.

4. LeBron James: Hit a free throw, LeBron, would ya? Shooting 70% from the line is truly unacceptable, and four straight seasons of declining percentage at the stripe makes you think it’s getting in his head and not that easily reversible. The rest of his numbers were down, too, as he seemed to coast through the season at times. Let’s not be too down on him for that, though. Here’s a guy who’s been playing 40 mpg every night since he was 18 years old, if he wants to save himself a bit, that’s fine. He’s still the only player in the league that has the potential to throw up a 32/8/8 season, and for the true believers, that’s enough to take him at #1. Going strictly by numbers he’s closer to #10, so split the difference and you’re where you should be.

5. Gilbert Arenas: The Takeover Season went as planned until Agent Zero went down with a knee injury late in the season. That should give owners slight pause, but early reports seem to indicate that the Black President will be just fine. Arenas is basically the new Allen Iverson, with a few less steals and loads more 3s. He’s a high volume, low percentage shooter who will drag down your FG%, but that’s the only negative to his fantasy game. He finished as a top 5 contributor in four categories last season, and was top 20 in assists. He has the potential to be the #1 fantasy player and when he’s hot, no player is more fun to own.

6. Dirk Nowitzki: Dirk has become a bit more boring the past couple years, but he remains one of the most reliable fantasy stars around, which is always a good thing to have in a first round pick. The days of 1.5 blocks and 3s per game seem to be in the past, but he’s become deadly accurate from everywhere on the court. He never misses more than a handful of games, always gets his shots and opportunities (except in the playoffs, of course) and is in the middle of his prime. He may be the least exciting of the top tier players, but he’s also the steadiest.

7. Steve Nash: Somehow, he keeps getting better. That’s not how it’s supposed to be with 33 year old point guards with chronic back problems. Nash shot a mind-blowing 53% from the field last  year, as he and Tony Parker were miles better than any other guard in that category. He’s a guarantee to lead the league in assists, hit 2.1 3pg last year and was his usual sterling self from the line. And for all the talk about the back problems and getting old, he’s missed a total of 20 games in the past 6 seasons. He won’t play 40 mpg that most of the other first rounders will, but Nash knows what he needs to do to suit up every night. You can convince yourself that a drop-off is imminent, but the numbers don’t back that up.

8. Yao Ming: As Yao refines his game, he plays fewer games. His line of 25/9.4/2 with 2 blocks on 52/86 shooting is fantastic, but he only played in 48 games. That makes two consecutive seasons in which he’s missed a huge chunk of time. Both injuries have been more freak than chronic, but you have to remember that he’s a 7’6”, 300 pound dude – players like him have a tendency to break down. Getting a dominant center early is always a plus, but what happens if he gets hurt and you don’t have a third solid center? You not only lose a first round pick, but you replace him with someone from the waiver wire. Just something to think about before taking him in the first round, which someone will surely – and rightly – do.

9. Amare Stoudemire: In the season everyone got hurt, it was the guy coming off of microfracture surgery that appeared in 82 games. OK, his recent knee surgery is certainly a reason to be concerned, although he looks like he should be OK to start the season. On the plus side, he’s already proven he can come back from the most serious knee surgery possible. Stoudemire was almost as good as ever last year, he just didn’t play as much since the Suns wanted to take care of him. He’s a FG% machine and surprisingly accurate at the line. He doesn’t rack up huge rebound and block numbers, at least for a center, but that’s a minor complaint. Here’s why you wait as long as possible to hold your draft. He’s an obvious first rounder if he’s feeling OK, it’s just hard to know for sure at this point.

10. Jason Kidd: Forget the concerns about his knee surgery from a few seasons ago and his poor FG% — Kidd has proven himself to be one fantasy’s most valuable and underrated players. Kidd has remained incredibly consistent over the last three seasons, with his PER staying between 19.2 and 19.7, and his fantasy numbers have held strong as well. But what made him especially valuable last year was that when most of the league was getting hurt, he played in 80 games for the second straight season. Some may think the extra games during the summer would make Kidd more prone to injury this season, and with older players there’s always an excuse you can make that a decline is imminent. But the fact remains that you can basically use permanent marker to write him in for at least 13/8/8 with 1.5 3s and 1.5 steals, and that’s the low end on a bunch of those numbers. He’s as solid a late first round pick as you’ll find.

11. Chris Paul: Stardom on hold, if only briefly. A badly sprained ankle caused him to miss a month and then a foot injury gave him fits down the stretch, but Paul still flashed the skills that helped him run away with Rookie of the Year honors on 05-06. His saw a slight drop in boards and steals, but he was a better and more efficient scorer and also added a full assist, taking him to 8.9 per game. If Paul is truly healthy — still a slight question mark at this point — he could see a significant third-year leap, especially if he’s healthy and can handle a few extra minutes per game. The end of the first round is really a “who do you like best?” situation? There are plenty of reasons to like Paul best.

12. Pau Gasol: Gasol came back with a vengeance after missing the first 22 games of the year due to a broken foot. He was a risky pick on draft day but met his timetable, was eased back into action and was a dominant fantasy player over the rest of the season. He notched career highs in points, rebounds, blocks, FG% and FT% en route to finishing the season as the #16 player per game. He’s had only two injuries over his six years, but it is worrisome that both were foot injuries. Still, he’s not a significant injury risk, qualifies at center and is in his prime at 27 years old. The tail-end of the first round is so up in the air this year that a solid argument can be made for taking Gasol there.

13. Dwyane Wade: It doesn’t matter how great you are – and Wade is pretty much the greatest around right now – but you can’t accumulate numbers if you aren’t playing. And right now, we just don’t know how much Wade will play. He won’t even be able to practice for real until the middle of November, so early December seems to be a best-case scenario. Only 51 games of Wade was good enough to make him the 25^th best player overall last year, so he’s still worthy of an early round pick. He’s the ultimate risk/reward, and spending a first round pick on the ultimate risk just isn’t something we can endorse, even if he is the best out there.

14. Andre Iguodala: Iguodala’s emergence as a fantasy superstar is complete, and it didn’t take too long. The departure of Allen Iverson was the key, of course, but Iguodala came through with flying colors once he became the franchise player. Despite missing games for the first time in his career (only 6, nothing to worry about) he finished the season as a top 15 player and there’s no reason to expect anything different this season. His FG% declined as his role increased, but when you put up 18.2/5.7/5.7 with 2 steals, you can deal with 45% shooting. There’s no reason to expect those numbers to go down, and if he shows even slight improvement and plays in 82 games – both reasonable expectations – he could end up a first round value.

15. Tim Duncan: Ho-hum. It was a banner season for Duncan, who turned in his second straight 80-game campaign, bounced back with big FG% and block numbers and, of course, led the Spurs to another championship. There’s no reason to expect much change in 07-08, although it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him miss more than just a couple of games. His poor free throw shooting remains a sizeable handicap in roto leagues and Duncan’s reputation as an unexciting player translates into fantasy. Because he’s unlikely to shoot 54.6% or stay quite as healthy again, he shouldn’t be a first rounder.

16. Josh Smith: I remain skeptical of Josh Smith, but fantasy is about numbers and Smith has a few that you can’t ignore. The first is obviously 2.9, which is how many blocks he averaged last year, a truly phenomenal number for a G/F. The next most significant number is 21, which is how old Smith will be on opening night, meaning that there’s a reason for his inconsistency and that there’s every reason to believe he has room for improvement. He was a top 25 player however you shake the numbers, and his trends in boards, assists, steals and points are all positive. He averaged 18.9 ppg after the break and if he can score like that night in and night out and keep up those inhuman block numbers, he’ll prove to be worth the second round pick it’ll cost you to get him.

17. Rashard Lewis: From perennially underrated to one of the most overpaid players in the league. Lewis had carved out a comfortable niche in Seattle as a little-bit-of-everything and experienced his best season statistically last year, despite missing 22 games. The Magic are paying him so much money that they will have no choice but to feature him on offense, which bodes well for his fantasy value. Hopefully he won’t lose his motivation now that he’s guaranteed $115 million, or whatever obscene amount it is, and he’ll continue to knock down 3s and pour in 20+ ppg. He makes a relatively safe second round pick.

18. Vince Carter: Carter’s been remarkably consistent during his time in New Jersey, putting up second round numbers, which last year translated into first round value thanks to his appearing in all 82 games. Yes, all 82 games. It’s time to remove the “injury prone” tag from Vinsanity, as he’s been nothing but a perfect picture of good health in the Garden State. He’s signed to a long-term contract now, so perhaps some of his motivation will be gone, but unless the Nets start to really falter there’s no reason to expect anything besides the 25/6/4.5 he’s averaged the last few years. After being overrated for so long, Carter may actually be an underrated fantasy property at this point in his career.

19. Chris Bosh: Bosh’s fourth season was almost identical to his third, save for a 1.5 jump per game in rebounds, taking him up to 10.7. Otherwise his points, FG%, assists, steals, blocks, minutes and games played were all near his 05-06 levels. So it’s quite possible that what you see right now is what you get with Bosh. And that’s very good, if not quite great. His center eligibility makes him more attractive, but his injury history is cause for at least a bit of concern. He’s yet to crack the Top 20 on per-game player raters but is being drafted higher than that. We’ll see if he has one more level to his game this season; if not, he looks like a mid-second round pick for at least the next five years.

20. Carmelo Anthony: I love ‘Melo this year. He proved that his third-year leap was no fluke, and if it wasn’t for his silly suspension brought on by some idiot cry babies on the Knicks, he would have finished the season as a top 20 player. You can call him “just points” if you want, but he’s now shot 48% from the field in consecutive seasons, and when you take 20 shots per game, that’s plenty valuable. He gets to the line, has upped his boards and rebounds, and you simply can’t scoff at 29 ppg. Say it’s “just points” if you will, but he was as valuable in points last season as Gilbert Arenas was in 3s. Him and Iverson should be on the same page and motivate each other. Anthony may not have the flashiest fantasy game, but you know he’ll be out there scoring every night.

21. Allen Iverson: He’s not the #1 option for the first time in his career and I think he might actually like it. There are still plenty of points to go around in Denver, and if he averages 25 instead of 30 but shoots 45% instead of 41% — which is what happened last year – it’s a fair tradeoff. Chucky Atkins should handle point guard duties, but he’s not really a true point, so it’s possible The Answer could top the 7.2 apg he averaged last year with Denver. One way AI could offset the slippage in his fantasy game is to hit more 3s, which is always a possibility in Denver’s fast-paced, high-scoring offense. You know he’ll see plenty of minutes but you also know he’ll be banged up a bit. Looking at his current numbers, 05-06 season is a clear outlier, so as long as you aren’t expecting a repeat of that, you shouldn’t be disappointed.

22. Ray Allen: There are plenty of warning signs with Allen, but most of them have to do with general history of players like Allen, not Allen’s own track record. He’s been remarkably consistent over his career and actually averaged a new high of 26.4 ppg last season. He didn’t match his 3s bonanza of 05-06, but his 3.0 per game were still huge. His double ankle surgery and age – 32 – are worrisome, especially given his position. The fact that he’s going from the #1 scoring option to one of three top scoring options also brings some uncertainty to the table. The good thing about Allen is that you know you’re getting dominant 3s and FT%. He was a top 10 player last year and Boston will need him to score plenty.

23. Paul Pierce: Even the top workhorses break down once in a while, and that’s what happened last year with Pierce. One of the most consistently durable players around missed nearly half the season and he saw significant enough drops in every category – except, notably, 3s – that he barely finished as a top 30 player on a per-game basis. It will be very interesting to see how Pierce adapts to having Allen and Garnett around. It’s easy to see him being more of a facilitator in order to make his new teammates comfortable, but that’s just speculation. It’s a better bet to count on him to continue his normal production, and if he can get back to playing 82 games that will make him a valuable second round pick.

24. Marcus Camby: He’s 33 years old and when he missed 12 games last year, that was shockingly good. He’s been a top 15 player on a per-game basis the past two years, is a rebounds/blocks machine and it’s always great to get a dominant big man early in the draft. If you’re a risk-taker, he’s right up your alley. But man, it’s just too dangerous for me. In his defense he’s played at least 66 games in three of the past four years, so his years of missing months at a time seem to be behind him. He’s the center version of Baron Davis, or maybe it’s vice versa at this point. He will certainly get drafted in the top 30, and if you think you can make up for his absence for at least 15 games, you could be greatly rewarded.

25. Chauncey Billups: Another fine year for Mr. Consistency, but he’s starting to show signs of a point guard that is wearing down. He missed the most games of his Detroit career, lost 1.4 assists and was off all season from long range. He was still a top 30 player, but a bounceback might not be as much of a given as you’d think. If he can just regain his stroke from long range that might be enough for fantasy purposes, though. After two years of 43% he dropped to 34.5%, and that meant 1.6 3pg instead of 2.3 3pg. He still holds the keys to the Detroit offense and is a force at the free throw line, but expecting another 05-06 might be a bit much.

For our second player vs. player debate we decided to tackle some new teammates up in Beantown. Coming tomorrow: first installment of overall rankings/profiles.

DM: Two guys sitting on the edge of the first round are new teammates Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. So which Celtic should you draft first? Both of them come with health question marks, as Allen missed 27 games last season — the second time in four years he’s missed a large chunk — while Pierce suffered his first major injury (well, y’know, in season) and missed 35 games. With Pierce at 30 and Allen at 32 on opening night — and both players having logged very heavy minutes throughout their careers — there’s reason to be at least a little worried. When it comes down to deciding between the two, I’ll just go by the numbers and take Allen. He was 8th (per game stats) to Pierce’s 28th last year and was 11th to Pierce’s 14th in 05-06. His acclimation to Boston shouldn’t be too rough and it’s not like Pierce won’t have to get acclimated to having two new teammates himself. What ultimately gives the nod to Allen is that you are guaranteed one of the most dominant 3-point shooters in the game if you take him. He’s averaged 2.7, 3.5 and 3.0 3pg in his last three seasons and you can pretty much count on 3 per game. Yes, Pierce his 2.3 per game himself last year, but Allen will be the team’s main long-range threat this year.

BV: There are two reasons to take Ray Allen - three pointers and FT%.  Unfortunately, that may be all there is to like this year.  For maybe the first time in his career, Allen is playing with three “plus” rebounders for their position - Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo are all excellent rebounders for the positions they play.  So you can see his rpg drop from 4.5 to say, 3 even.  He’s also going to take a hit in assists - as good as Rashard Lewis was, he certainly was a passer, so Allen was generally the #2 passer on the floor at all times in Seattle.  Now, he’s maybe the 3rd or even 4th best passer on the floor.  So that could drop to 2.5-3 apg.  Finally, you have to assume his points will drop at least a bit, maybe to 22 ppg or so.  Looking at that, 22/3/2.5, huge plusses in FT% and 3’s, you know who that reminds me of?  Allan Houston.  I think I have to take Pierce because he’s got a more well-rounded fantasy game.  He’s a better rebounder, he’s generally gotten better defensive numbers (last year was an exception), and perhaps most importantly, at the end of a close game, I think the ball is in his hands.

DM: Look at Pierce’s numbers last year. They dropped in every single category except for 3s, where he saw a huge jump from 1.4 to 2.3. With Allen around now you can probably expect that number to drop back to the 1.5 range. Granted, a line of 25.0/5.9/4.1 is nothing to sneeze at, but Pierce has a lot of miles on him. It’s easy to see him being more of a facilitator in Boston than a main guy. I was always a big fan of Pierce and thought he made a great late-first rounder/early second-rounder because he did a little bit of everything, played a ton and was his team’s unquestioned #1 option. Now that he’s a bit older, has more help and performed at a 3rd round level last year, I’m not as enthusiastic.

BV: Yes, his numbers dropped last year but that’s due more to the fact that he had a career year in 2006 and that he had to deal with a major injury for the first time last year.  Oh, and he was playing for a team that was intentionally tanking games.  Yes, he’s a bit older but not as old as Allen, and I think he’s still the emotional leader of this team.  Plus, here’s a little secret - he was actually more accurate than Allen from three-point range last year.  I think he out-rebounds RayRay by 2.5-3, out-assists him by 2-2.5, gets .5 more steals and .5 more blocks, and scores around the same number of points.  I don’t think the disparity in threes is as big as some think it will be, and so that leaves FT%, which, granted, is a big bonus for Allen but not enough to overcome everything else.

DM: I’ll admit I’m not as adamant about taking Allen before Pierce as I was about taking Arenas before Nowitzki. And there’s a lot of speculation involved here since we can’t really know how the Allen-Garnett-Pierce trio will work together. If you go by the thinking that they are all classy veterans that want to win, you’d think that there won’t be any meshing problems and that they will all simply do what they do. And last year Allen was a top-10 player while Pierce was a top-30 player. It’s as simple as that. I’m not going to overthink this one too much.

Before we get into our overall rankings in a few days, we thought we’d have some fun with a little back and forth on a few players. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts on who the better pick is.

BV: The fairly general consensus is that the first four picks will be Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion, and LeBron James (although not necessarily in that order).  After that, you’ve got two guys who are both viable picks at 5,  but pretty much polar opposites - Dirk Nowitzki and Gilbert Arenas.

To me, the pick has to be Dirk.  The one thing you absolutely need with a early/mid first round pick is consistency.  Dirk has performed at a first round level for 6 or 7 years now, and other than his rookie year has never missed more than 6 games in a season.  People will point to his declining 3’s (and I expect DM to do just that), but along with that drop has been an increase in FG%.  I’m more concerned about the blocks and steals numbers, honestly, but even with those being low last year he was 7/6 on the A/TPR last year.

DM: It’s not that I really have anything against Dirk, I just feel that Arenas unquestionably has more upside and that his risk-factor is lower than people seem to think. His knee surgery is a concern, but as long as he doesn’t have any serious setbacks during the preseason, it’s safe to pencil him in for 80 games. Arenas doesn’t have as long a track record of consistency as Nowitzki, but he was #3 (per game) last year, #5 the year before and #10 the year before that. He’s in his prime and loves to get his numbers and still has room to improve. He shot just 42% last year but was 45% in 05-06. Even if he splits the difference, that’s a big gain. The rest of the numbers will certainly be there, including boatloads of 3s. Dirk has improved his actual game over the past two years, but it has hurt his fantasy game. He’s more accurate from long range, but takes fewer 3s. Caveat: If your league counts turnovers, this becomes much more of a toss up.

BV: The thing with Arenas is, I think his risk factor is just as big as people think - if not bigger.  Look at his split stats last year.  He had an unbelievable December, putting up 34 ppg with 3.7 threes on 47% from the field.  But then look at his February, when he was a total mess, yes he had 26 points but was 35% from the field and just 18 percent from the arc!  Meanwhile, Dirk was a machine, only slowing down a bit at the end of the year when the Mavs had little to play for.  You live and die with your studs, and while Gilbert has upside, must I remind you of the original title of FBB?

DM: ok, gilbert was awful in february and he STILL finished as the #3 player based on averages. there’s no way he has a stretch that bad this year. upside is when you deal with guys like stromile swift, who have never proven anything but people continue to be obsessed with them. gilbert is an established top fantasy player, in his prime, the focal point of one of the league’s top offenses.

BV: How is there no way he has a stretch that bad this year?  Also, another thing to worry about is his minutes.  he’s been over 40 mpg each of the last 3 years (well last year it was just under 40, but that counts his last game where he played only 2 mins).  You know Eddie Jordan would like to see that number go down, and with a supposedly-beefed up bench, he might get gilbert down to around 38 mpg or so.

DM: OK, sure, maybe he’ll have a stretch that bad but I don’t see it happening. Granted, he might not have a stretch as good as that glorious run in December/January. But these are the numbers that Gilbert will be putting up for the next 5-7 years, just accept that. And say what you will about the beefed up bench — and the Wizards do have more talent there than they have had during Arenas’s time with the team — but he will play as much as he can handle. Nothing against Dirk — he’s a sure-thing Top 10 player and a fine player to have as the centerpiece of your team. But Arenas is also a sure-thing Top 10 player who has a real chance to be the #1 guy when all is said and done. And that’s why he’s the pick over Dirk.

After our draft we asked each participant to offer his thoughts on his team, along with some of the best players still on the board. Here’s what everyone had to say.

1. Joel: I opted for Kobe over Garnett, Marion, and Lebron this year because I ultimately felt Kobe’s performance in this league (no TOs) would overcome the replaceability of the SG position.  By the time the picks came back to me all the elite centers were gone - I was hoping for Camby - and I panicked a bit; Boozer’s not an especial favorite of mine, but I ended up opting for him above players like Ray Allen and Chauncey Billups. Having invested a lot in a center who doesn’t block shots, I decided to look into punting the category, and I think it worked out pretty well, actually. I racked up mostly low-upside, high-consistency guys, so I can’t really feel too upset about my picks (although I can certainly feel bored by them). I don’t think I reached too far on any of my picks, although I can’t say I think either Mike Miller or Zach Randolph will repeat last year’s performances. If I hadn’t overlooked him (you stop scanning that high up last year’s cheat sheets when you get deep into a draft), Elton Brand would have been my last pick instead of Parker, tanking blocks or no. He may be out till the all-star break or even later, but in roto even a half-season of an elite player adds up awfully quickly. I think Luke Walton would fit on this team quite nicely, too. For my second center, I was eyeballing the blockaphobe Zaza Pachulia in round 10 or 11. Other undrafted players I like - for the right price - include Al “what Shelden Williams was SUPPOSED to be” Horford, Mo Peterson, Walter Hermann, Nick Collison, and (especially) Jose Calderon.

2. DM: the main thing i learned from this mock draft is that #2 is not a spot that i want when it’s time to do the real thing. for pretty much every pick after the first one i found myself picking from the remainders of a tier, a bunch of guys i didn’t want or players i’d be reaching for too much. instead of worrying about finding players that fit together well i just went for what i thought was the best talent available. early in the draft — and that’s pretty much the first half — you have to just grab the best players. don’t worry about categories so much early on, just get guys who play big minutes and are the focal point of the offense. KG, carmelo and billups qualify there. it was certainly easier to pick artest knowing this was a mock, but as long as he plays and keeps that FG% around 42-43 he’ll be worth it. i love ricky davis as things stand right now and figured he wouldn’t be there at #71, so i grabbed him at #50. he finished #29 last year, shouldn’t see his numbers go down this year as the main guy in minnesota. i’m more worried about maggette staying healthy than being productive. he always puts up the same numbers, it’s just the minutes vary. with no brand around he’ll be shouldering a big load. marbury, well, y’know. i grabbed krstic with my last pick here and was going to choose from darko, curry and bynum for my next pick to take care of the centers. i wasn’t going out of my way to avoid centers, if i found myself in the position to take one i certainly would have, but i’d rather take my chances with one of the young guys than the likes of big ben and big Z earlier in the draft.  as for guys still on the board that i like, i think some of the former stars can offer decent value this late — brad miller, larry hughes, peja stojakovic. if chucky atkins can hold onto the starting PG spot in denver he is going to hit just boatloads of 3s. ryan gomes and drew gooden make solid filler, and don’t forget about how good luke walton was before he got injured last year.

3. Terrance: To be honest, I’m not in love with my team. I don’t see it competing for a championship in this league. I drafted three small forwards with my first three picks. Something I’m not happy doing as I couldve got high scoring SF’s later, notablely ricky davis who is good for 17-5-5. I regretted the Paul Pierce pick as soon as I made it. I Shouldve drafted Carlos Boozer. It was the time to go big. One of the positives of my three forwards are they do a little of everything.  I got some good bigs, one with an unusual C game in Okur. And two with a similar game in Tyson Chandler and Ben Wallace. I reached with Jameer Nelson, but needed a PG, Im hoping i was a year early with Nelson. Raja Bell was my easiest pick, a solid contributor and you know what you’re going to get. I need PG’s bad, im hurting, i have high assists SF/SG. But in the next few rounds Id be looking at: Jamaal Tinsley, Brevin Knight, Sam Cassell, Ill also look for a backup PF, something like chris wilcox. I also may look towards someone like pryzbilla for some stop gap blocks. Someone to draft and see what happens early in the season and drop if he doesnt pan out. No oden, No randolph. The blazers only have three big men to play 2 positions.

4. Raymond: I’m usually the upside drafter in my leagues, but I think I ended up making all my picks based on who dropped.  Marion at 4; Ray Allen at 28; Josh Howard at 45; Ginobili at 52.  It just kind of felt like I had to pick those guys up there despite my needs or who I really wanted to get.  This is definitely going to be an interesting year as the talent around rounds 4-6 is still very deep with solid guys.  One thing I have to note with this team is injury risk.  Marion is pretty solid, but with Camby, Ray Allen, Howard, Ginobili, as my core I could take some pretty big hits during the season.  It looks like my strongest categories will be pt/3pt/stl/ft%.  I’m pretty thin at pg/assists and will probably be coming the waiver wire for guys like tyronn lue etc.  My fg%/reb/blk are pretty middle of the road and that’s probably what I’m going to try to improve on with the later picks.  With my last pick I chose a high upside guy in Tyrus Thomas that could possibly do well in all 3 of those cats.  If my team was built differently I’d jump at the chance to pick up Shaq/Curry/Darko this late in the draft.  Some guys that weren’t picked up who I have on my radar are Jamal Crawford, Delonte West, Charlie Villanueva, Jamaal Tinsley,  Nocioni, Korver, Collison, and Luke Walton.  My sleeper picks are going to be Brad Miller (seems totally rehabilitated and his ast #’s would help me out) and Channing Frye.

5. BV: I gave my thoughts on my team yesterday, plus I got to talk through this whole week, so don’t mind me here.

6. Sean: I was really happy with drafting Gilbert Arenas 6th, I think he has potential to produce in the top 3 or 4, plus he’s a PG.  Rashard Lewis was a Best Player Available pick.  I knew I was lacking in the big men stats, so that’s why I picked Gerald Wallace with my 3rd rounder.  Gerald gives me good hustle stats, rebounds and fg%.  I’m happy with Emeka Okafor in the 4th though I was hoping for Al Jefferson.  5th round is where I start to take picks I didn’t really like.  I’m not a big fan of Tony Parker, but I needed assists and I picked one that would also help me in fg%.  Rip Hamilton in the sixth is just a solid guard.  Good percentages, helps me stay competitive with scoring.  I was really happy to get Danny Granger with my 7th pick, he’s my only true “upside” guy.  He is still young and will improve.  Chris Kaman should rebound to at least his double-double 05-06 averages with Brand out, and I also heard he has been really trying to improve his game this summer.  Overall, I’m pretty satisfied with my team.  I don’t have really any “sexy” picks, which I tend to stay away from.  My team has most of the bases covered, with at least three players helping out in each category.  G-wall and Oak are a bit of an injury risk and Kaman might not revert, but I don’t think those are major concerns.   Matt Barnes is a promising player who showed potential in the playoffs and will have more playing time with Jason Richardson gone.  Wally should also come back from an injury year and put up solid numbers, as there aren’t many people to carry the scoring load in Seattle except for Durant.  Also I was considering taking Bynum with one of my last picks.  I think an 11th or 12th rounder is a great time to pick up someone like Bynum, when there is a chance he makes an Al-Jefferson-like jump this year. You can also read some more of my basketball and other insights here: http://freakinawesome.wordpress.com/

7. PR: It appears the theme to my draft strategy this year is a ‘youth movement.’  I did not draft a single player over 25 years old… if you can believe that.  Take a look.  Dwayne Wade was best available and surest bet.  I didn’t want to take any kind of risk with my first pick, so I went with the versatile 25-year-old stud.  He could be drafted #1 overall in 2008.  Sure, he’s battled some injuries the last couple years, but that’s not enough to scare me away.  Dwight Howard’s only 21 years old and is looking more and more like a young Shaq Diesel.  He could be the league’s most dominant center averaging 20/12/2/1/2 while shooting nearly 60% from the field.  I think he’ll be a perennial first rounder for years to come.  Deron Williams is not someone I was targeting but I love me some point guards.  He finished second only to Steve Nash with 9.4 assists/game.  At 23 years old, he should continue to improve on his numbers and he’s a more durable/safer pick than someone like Jason Kidd.  Brandon Roy, last year’s R.O.Y. could be this year’s S.O.D. – steal of the draft.  Felton should reach new heights in his third season.  His assists and dreadful 38% shooting should both improve with the arrival of bona fide scorer Jason Richardson.  Biedrins is 21-years old, 60% shooter, double-double machine…enough said.  Foye is yet another youngster with huge upside.  I pegged Nene as a nice sleeper back in April and I stand by that.

8. Jeremy: Overall, my team definitely has some risk from experience (Durant, Aldridge) and injuries (O’Neal, Jefferson), but it could pay off. On Josh Smith, Some people accused me of taking him too high, and I can understand that. But, I was looking for a big man at this pick and after Duncan went there was no one I felt I could justify picking here. Despite not wanting to take a SF this early, Smith produces big-man numbers in blocks and rebounds, and gives good assists too. He has consistently improved every year and is now only 21. Barring injury, he shouldn’t disappoint much at this spot.  With the last pick (Diaw), I wanted to highlight a player that will be coming back this year a bit, IMO. He is still a very versatile player. I am worried about Grant Hill and his SF playing time, but the Suns only have Marion, Diaw, Amare and Sean Marks to play the PF and C position, and Marion can only play SF quite well.  I don’t know if my team is the favorite one I would choose out of all of the mock teams drafted, but it should do alright in most categories. At the very least, I already have 3 centers on my roster and do not need to worry about positional scarcity due to that.

9. All:  I talked about this one yesterday, too.

10. Alex: As I was drafting along I was sure I was doing great.  Grabbing 2 premier centers who are also high scores in the first 2 rounds in a 2 center league I thought I had at least 4-5 categories taken care of (blocks, rebounds, fg%, steals and points) and I decided to concentrate on the other 3 (assists, 3pts, ft%) picking joe johnson, kevin martin and tj ford with the next 3 picks.  my next pick was ak47 which i think is my best pick in the draft.  I think it is a steal that late in the draft.  It is still unclear where he will land (hopefully out of utah) but it was apparent he wasn’t putting up the numbers because he wasn’t happy.  After seeing him dominate in eurobasket tournament I have no doubt he will have a great season in the NBA.  My next 2 rounds were pretty bad. Rudy Gay and Conley.  I am pretty sure I could have gotten them way later if I wanted to.  Looking at my team now I see my strength are blocks and FG% and weaknesses are rebounds 3pt and steals.  Rebounds should be relatively easy to find in the later rounds (T Murphy?) and maybe a 3pt specialist (L. Head?), but steals would be hard to make up.  The best team i see is Joel’s, with rebounds, points and 3pt locked in and the only weakness blocks.  And the weakest is PR with big gaps in rebounds, points, 3pt and ft%, though pretty good in assists and fg%.

11. Frank: I like my picks. At 11 and 14, Gasol and Iguodala were as solid as anybody available. Jefferson could have a Top 20 year; I love pairing him with Gasol. Round 4, I felt like I needed a PG/SG, and Barbosa was best available, though I was hoping Redd would still be on the board (he went right before Barbosa). I did okay with that pick, but arguably left better players on the board (Jason Richardson, Ron Artest). Jason Terry and Mike Bibby were good value picks. I don’t see how Lee gets fewer minutes this year than last, even with Randolph and Curry; he’s a rebounding machine, with solid percentages. Ilguaskas gives me depth at center in a 2C league, and is fair value in the 8th round. This is a good core, with top-tier potential in FG and FT, steals, and rebounds. Points, blocks, and 3s are solid. Assists are a weak link, but if I add an assist-first PG could become a strength. The team is positioned to compete across all eight categories, and I’m filling utility spots for the rest of the draft. I can’t ask for more. Next round, I’m looking at an assist machine: Jamaal Tinsley is top of the list. If Tinsley’s gone, Brevin Knight and Delonte West will get consideration, and I’m also watching Brad Miller, who’s risk/reward (not to mention I’m a Kings fan). Andrew Bynum and Kyle Korver might also get my attention. So will Elton Brand. With 10 picks until I choose, it’s wait and see.

12. Ruyun: I was very happy with my first three picks. Picking 12th meant I missed out on any of the first round ’studs’, but the tandem of Paul and Bosh gives a great base to expand from. My favorite pick was Bulter. He was pushing top 20 last year before breaking his hand and getting him with the 36th pick was a steal. By now I have pretty strong in every category, except 3’s and blocks. I don’t like Redd because he is so one dimensional but considering no-one on my team shoots 3’s I had to pick him up. Likewise the rationale behind the Wallace pick, he is definitely on his way down the fantasy ladder but he should still produce a 1 blk 1 trey 1 steal season. West was a bit of a nothing pick for me, he is a poor man’s Randolph. I was very happy to get Rondo, it may have been a bit of a reach but he wouldn’t have lasted til the 9th. Being a starter and with the Big 3 he should get 7 ass per game. He will take less shots but that’s a good thing. He also rebounds very well for a PG. A few guys I will be keeping my eyes on: Milicic, Childress, Mo Pete, Jamal Crawford, Atkins. The last few rounds I will target Scola and Maxiell. Houston badly needs a PF – Chuck Hayes is just too small – and Scola comes ready made to slot right in. I think he should put up numbers similar to Nene. And Maxiell just has huge up-side if he can get PT.

–BV

Today, we’ll wrap up the last 2 rounds of the mock draft, I’ll discuss each team individually, and then tomorrow our participants will get a chance to say their piece.

Joel (1 Overall)
Kobe Bryant
Allen Iverson
Carlos Boozer
Lamar Odom
Mike Miller
Stephen Jackson
Zach Randolph
Anthony Parker

Joel took full advantage of being a bookend, spending 1 of his pair of picks each time on a need, and another on the best player available. I’m not thrilled with the Stephen Jackson pick, but other than that I think you can easily defend every pick he took.

DM (2 Overall)
Kevin Garnett
Carmelo Anthony
Chauncey Billups
Ron Artest
Ricky Davis
Corey Maggette
Stephon Marbury
Nenad Krstic

You know, a lot of people could sleep on Marbury this year just because he burned them so bad in the past, but in the 7th round that’s a nice pick. A lot of people in our draft were kigh on Krtic, as well, but I don’t see it. DM pairing of Anthony with KG was sweet because Anthony’s strenth, points, is the only thing KG doesn’t do all that well. But after Billups, he sure did take a lot of SF’s, and I don’t know if that was the greatest move.

Terrance (3 Overall)
LeBron James
Paul Pierce
Tracy McGrady
Mehmet Okur
Tyson Chandler
Ben Wallace
Jameer Nelson
Raja Bell

Terrance went all SF early, but I think he recovered nicely. Even though Nelson has no business being a PG1, James is essentially a PG with the steals and assists he gets. And while yes, he took 3 C’s in a row, I’m not sure I like any of them this year and he may have really jumped the gun on Wallace.

Raymond (4 Overall)
Shawn Marion
Marcus Camby
Ray Allen
Josh Howard
Manu Ginobili
Monta Ellis
Al Harrington
Tyrus Thomas

Raymond may have started off strong - after three he may have had the best team in the league, as he got steals in the first and third - but I don’t love any of the picks. Howard and Ginobili are fine, if unexciting, but Ellis, Harrington and Thomas all went early, I think.

BV (5 Overall)
Dirk Nowitzki
Jason Kidd
Kirk Hinrich
Jason Richardson
Luol Deng
Ben Gordon
Andrew Bogut
Tayshaun Prince

Let’s go Bulls! So maybe I coulda waited a round on Hinrich - really, in a Mock Draft, I shoulda let him go to get a better idea of where he will fall. I’m worried about my C situation, that’s for sure.

Sean (6 Overall)
Gilbert Arenas
Rashard Lewis
Gerald Wallace
Emeka Okafor
Tony Parker
Rip Hamilton
Danny Granger
Chris Kaman

Sean’s got a solid team. He took his one big risk in the third and surrounded Crash with guys that you know will be solid. If Wallace comes through, Sean will be a big contender - but if not, that’s OK, a few gems late and he’ll be just fine.

PR (7 Overall)
Dwayne Wade
Dwight Howard
Deron Williams
Brandon Roy
Raymond Felton
Andris Biedrins
Randy Foye
Nene

PR got a major steal in Foye, I’ll say that much. I really don’t like either of his first 2 picks (Wade’s injury really worries me and Howard, I just don’t think he’ll have 2nd round value), but you can’t argue with what he did from 3 on.

Jeremy (8 Overall)
Steve Nash
Josh Smith
Jermaine O’Neal
Kevin Durant
Mo Williams
LaMarcus Aldridge
Richard Jefferson
Boris Diaw

Jeremy was all-risk all-the-time rounds 2 through 4, then backed that up with another big risk in the eighth. But he did get the FBB seal of approval with both the Nash and Aldridge selection. And if those risks come through, this team will be very competitive.

All (9 Overall)
Amare Stoudemire
Vince Carter
Baron Davis
Antawn Jamison
Andre Miller
Samuel Dalembert
Shane Battier
Jarrett Jack

This team has had consensus picks, so obviously it has some risks nobody wanted to take (Davis) and some solid guys that nobody was really pining for (Jamison, Dalembert), but nothing too exciting here.

Alex (10 Overall)
Yao Ming
Tim Duncan
Joe Johnson
Kevin Martin
T. J. Ford
Andrei Kirilenko
Rudy Gay
Mike Conley

Alex has one of my favorite teams in the draft. Every single pick is solid one through five, he took nice risks in 6 and 8, and has a nice balance of bigs and smalls. Going big-big early looked to be a pretty effective strategy.

Frank (11 Overall)
Pau Gasol
Andre Iguodala
Al Jefferson
Leandro Barbosa
Jason Terry
Mike Bibby
David Lee
Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Frank had a great PG run there in the middle of the draft, as Barbosa, Terry and Bibby could all be Top-15 PG’s. Ilgauskas was a solid pick as late as he got him, and while Gasol raised some eyebrows in the first round, but in retrospect that looks pretty nice.

Ruyun (12 overall)
Chris Paul
Chris Bosh
Caron Butler
Michael Redd
Rasheed Wallace
David West
Andrei Bargnani
Ranjo Rondo

Finally, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure, and Ruyun took eveyone else’s trash and made it his treasure. The first 4 rounds were all sweet picks, and while I don’t love West or Rondo, he’s solid everywhere else and Bargnani was a nice upside pick.

Tomorrow: Our participants chime in with their thoughts.

–BV