in a h2h what changes? i dont think Dwight and Melo go in 2nd round in a h2h league. lots of sites have AI goin late 20s but i think late 2nd is about right and im guessin you agree.

camby too much of an injury risk to go 2nd round?

1st round
Unless you think Lebron is going to make a big jump in FT%, I’d take Nowitzki,Marion and maybe Arenas and Nash ahead of him…

2nd round
NIce comment about the bottom of the 2nd round being as valuable as the top.

Those with a top 5 pick this year, have a pretty big advantage as they’ll get a much better 1st rounder, an equally good 2nd rounder. I wonder where the drop off will be in the 3rd round?

Even in roto, I worry about Dwight Howard–his FT% is a category killer. Isn’t that a big risk for the 2nd round?

In my league’s draft last year (10-team league), somebody took Camby in the 2nd round and everybody thought it was a bad pick–but he won the league.

I agree that Howard is a roto killer with his FT% and # of attempts. Probably wouldn’t take him until the 4th round in a non-To league, and even later in a TO legue.

I have to say I question the Carmelo pick in the 2nd round. Other than in PPG, he’s not a very special 8-cat roto player. To me there are a number of guys you’ve got to pick before Carmelo, including Deron Williams, Allan Iverson, Chauncey Billups, Caron Butler, Joe Johnson, Michael Redd, and Marcus Camby. And there are bunch more that merit consideration as being more valuable than Carmelo in 8-cat roto, guys like Gerald Wallace, Al Jefferson, Emeka Okafor, Baron Davis, Carlos Boozer, Tracy McGrady, Ray Allen, and Josh Howard. Every year, I watch ‘Melo go way too early in the draft. It’s a 12 team league, and he’s going late in the 2nd round? I’d say his actual value is more like late 3rd/early 4th.

My last round pick now looks very good, very quick. You’ll see what I mean soon enough. I feel bad for Amare.

In order…

1) Personally, I just can’t take Camby in the 2nd round. If you do and he plays 70 games, great. But that’s just too much risk for me.

2) The aura of LeBron is still enough that people will gamble on him earlier than the numbers support. One of these years he’ll figure it out from the line … right?

3) I’m not a big Dwight Howard fan and wouldn’t even consider him in the 2nd round.

4) I love Carmelo this year. I’ll get into that more later on, but as a general rule I think serious FBBers sometimes overthink the whole categories thing and overlook great players who score a ton and play huge minutes. He finished #21 per game in non-TO leagues last year and is just getting better.

5) I sure hope Amare is on the court for the season opener, or at least sometime in November. It’s just more fun when he’s around.

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Well, DM, I’ll grant that it’s not a reach that’s gonna kill you, especially if you think Melo’s gonna post better numbers than ever this year. Me, I don’t see that happening with Iverson on the Nuggets. My drafting philosophy is to make sure I get as close to guaranteed 1st and 2nd round value in the 1st and 2nd rounds, and to overvalue PGs and big men in the first half of the draft, because there’s typically a bigger drop-off in these positions than among SGs and SFs later in the draft (i.e. there’s gonna be quality available at the SG and SF positions until very late in the draft — you’re gonna score a Richard Jefferson or a Corey Maggette even if you miss out on Carmelo — while you’re gonna be much happier with Deron Williams rather than Rajon Rondo, or Carlos Boozer rather than Chris Kaman. I’d rather have a star PG or C alongside a Maggette than a mediocre PG or C alongside Melo.

I’m no fan of Carmelo, but there’s nothing wrong with Melo in the second round, especially going at #23. For much of last year, he was in the top 10 on various player raters before a drop of at the end of the season. He has gotten better every year he’s been in the league and you figure one of these years he’s going to finish in the top 10.

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