Mock Draft Report, Part 2

Mock Draft Rounds 3 & 4

Continuing our first-ever, reader-participating Mock Draft…

25. Joel: Carlos Boozer (Bryant, Iverson)
26. DM: Chauncey Billups (Garnett, Anthony)
27. Terrance: Tracy McGrady (L. James, Pierce)
28. Raymond: Ray Allen (Marion, Camby)
29. BV: Kirk Hinrich (Nowitzki, Kidd)
30. Sean: Gerald Wallace (Arenas, R. Lewis)
31. PR: Deron Williams (Wade, D. Howard)
32. Jeremy: J. O’Neal (Nash, Josh Smith)
33. All: Baron Davis (A. Stoudemire, Carter)
34. Alex: Joe Johnson (Ming, Duncan)
35. Frank: Al Jefferson (Gasol, Igoudala)
36. Ruyun: Caron Butler (Paul, Bosh)

Well here in round three we see our second big tier drop, about two or three spots in.  Here the tiers are a little more blurry, though.  For example, I think that Billups, McGrady and Ray Allen are probably in a tier above Carlos Boozer, but with Bryant and Iverson already on his squad, Joel couldn’t exactly take another shooter.  Well, he could, but then he’d end up in a similar situation as Terrance, who went with the best overall player in each three rounds, and now is the only team with no PG or C - you know he’ll be drafting the scarcity positions over the next few rounds.

I got razzed for taking Kirk Hinrich as early as I did, but to me it follows my “conservative early, risky late” strategy - Kirk has been 34, 43, and 17 on the TPR over the past three years and I’ll take that from my third round pick.  We had a couple of high-risk, high-reward picks right after the tier dropped, as owners felt they weren’t leaving too much talent on the board going after Gerald Wallace, Jermaine O’Neal and Baron Davis when they did.  At this point you have to like Alex’s team, as he’s got great balance, two good bigs, and an early pick coming up here in the 4th.  Someone I’m not thrilled about?  How about Jeremy, who went two risks in a row with Smith and Jermaine O’Neal?

Round 4:

37. Ruyun: Michael Redd (Paul, Bosh, Butler)
38. Frank: Leandro Barbosa (Gasol, Igoudala, Al Jefferson)
39. Alex: Kevin Martin (Ming, Duncan, J. Johnson)
40. All: Antawn Jamison (A. Stoudemire, V. Carter, B. Davis)
41. Jeremy: Kevin Durant (Nash, Josh Smith, J. O’Neal)
42. PR: Brandon Roy (Wade, D. Howard, D. Williams)
43. Sean: Emeka Okafor (G. Arenas, R. Lewis, G. Wallace)
44. BV: Jason Richardson (Nowitzki, Kidd, Hinrich)
45. Raymond: Josh Howard (Marion, Camby, Allen)
46. Terrance: Mehmet Okur (L. James, Pierce, T-Mac)
47. DM: Ron Artest (KG, Anthony, Billups)
48. Joel: Lamar Odom (Bryant, Iverson, Boozer)

Oof.  I’m going to go ahead and guess that most people were not thrilled with this round.  Redd was an easy pick - he was the only guy who could have even been considered in the third round.  The rest of the round is filled with dares - as in, I dare you to think that Barbosa will repeat his value.  I dare you to think Durant will have top-50 value in his rookie year.  I dare you to think Okur will improve on his 72 on the APR last year.  The safety picks (Jamison, Odom, Martin) look pretty good here but if your team takes that big dare here and hits, well, you’re in for a nice season.

After four rounds, I think you can make a case for the bookends having the best teams.  Joel has gone with the solid, sure-thing each time and hasn’t really reached all that much on any pick.  I also like Ruyun just because Michael Redd is that much better than the rest of this round.  As for the team I like least, I gotta say Jeremy again, his team is filled with question marks.  I think that each of the risks he took were good risks where they were taken, but cumulatively, it’s a bit scary.

–BV

01
Jeremy
October 2nd, 2007 7:12 am

I agree with the comment about Durant, as I immediately questioned that pick myself and was thinking I should have gone with either Brandon Roy or Jason Richardson. However, I don’t consider Josh Smith a huge risk. He really performed great last year, with AK47 defensive numbers despite poor shooting. I would have easily taken Duncan over him if he hadn’t gone only a few picks before, and there are no other big men in that Tier I could justify taking that early.

02
Rook
October 2nd, 2007 10:31 am

“Well, he could, but then he’d end up in a similar situation as Terrance, who went with the best overall player in each three rounds, and now is the only team with no PG or C - you know he’ll be drafting the scarcity positions over the next few rounds.”

True, but if you’ve gone into the draft thinking that you can effectively target certain bigs on the middle rounds (i.e., take them a round or two before their average draft position) and believe they’re undervalued, staying with best player available in the early rounds is the way to go. It depends on what players/positions you think will be in the middle rounds, right?

03
HawthorneWingo
October 2nd, 2007 12:15 pm

Rook’s theory works until your 6th round pick is coming up, you don’t have a center yet, and very little in the way of shot blocking, and the guys in front of you take Aldridge and Dalembert. Now you’re desperate — do you take a Biedrins or a Ben Wallace in the 6th round? If you don’t, and they go before you expect, too, can you win with guys like Chris Kaman and Zydrunas Ilgauskas compiling your big-man stats? And because you’ll almost certainly be hedging your weakness at C when it comes to the latest rounds of the draft, you’re gonna end up with guys like Nenad Krstic and Chris Wilcox on your bench, rather than guys with bigger fantasy upside like Jeff Green and Charlie Villanueva.

04
Terrance
October 2nd, 2007 3:24 pm

my favorite teams to this point in order:

1. DM: Ron Artest, KG, Anthony, Billups
2. Joel: Lamar Odom, Bryant, Iverson, Boozer
3. Ruyun: Michael Redd, Paul, Bosh, Butler

I like DMs variety and team cohesion, one of every position except C.

Joel has two all around scorers, an all around SF and finally a banger with a high FG%. No blocks, so he may be ditching that catagory.

Ruyun has some nice cohesion as well. None of his picks play the same position. All are top 5 at their positions except for redd, who is definitely top 10 at sg and possibly top 5.

05
Ruyun
October 2nd, 2007 6:41 pm

At the moment I dont think anyone has a ’standout’ team. However there are teams that are definately going to find it hard to win.

I agree with Terrance that Joel has a good team so far with a great mix of shooters, good PF and Odom. However with no ‘true center’ in a 2 center league, i think he will struggle. I definately know the pain having to have to use someone like a Dalembert as your No 1 center.

Likewise with ALex but the other way around. He has no PG and WILL finish last in assists.

Raymond,Terrance, DM and Joel have quite strong teams.

06
Jeremy
October 3rd, 2007 3:08 am

Looking at my team again, it’s possible I end up with horrible FG%. Sure, Nash is great at PG, but honestly, I think it’s really important you get a Tier 1/2 big man who will shoot a high percentage and many, many times a game. Thus, it’s great to grab Amare, Yao, Bosh, Pau, Duncan, Boozer, etc.

Unfortunately for me, I had about the worst draft position, and missed out on most of those players.

07
Joel
October 4th, 2007 2:53 am

Good eye, Terrance - not to spoil the surprise, but I was ditching blocks. I’m not completely happy with how that worked out, but it could certainly have been worse. I felt Boozer was a bit of a reach there, but I needed someone to fill that C spot, and once I took him the die was kind of cast.

08
Nelson
October 9th, 2007 8:14 am

Near the tail end of a 12 round draft, which pick should i go after - Claxton or Jwill?

09

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