Before we get into our overall rankings in a few days, we thought we’d have some fun with a little back and forth on a few players. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts on who the better pick is.

BV: The fairly general consensus is that the first four picks will be Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion, and LeBron James (although not necessarily in that order).  After that, you’ve got two guys who are both viable picks at 5,  but pretty much polar opposites – Dirk Nowitzki and Gilbert Arenas.

To me, the pick has to be Dirk.  The one thing you absolutely need with a early/mid first round pick is consistency.  Dirk has performed at a first round level for 6 or 7 years now, and other than his rookie year has never missed more than 6 games in a season.  People will point to his declining 3’s (and I expect DM to do just that), but along with that drop has been an increase in FG%.  I’m more concerned about the blocks and steals numbers, honestly, but even with those being low last year he was 7/6 on the A/TPR last year.

DM: It’s not that I really have anything against Dirk, I just feel that Arenas unquestionably has more upside and that his risk-factor is lower than people seem to think. His knee surgery is a concern, but as long as he doesn’t have any serious setbacks during the preseason, it’s safe to pencil him in for 80 games. Arenas doesn’t have as long a track record of consistency as Nowitzki, but he was #3 (per game) last year, #5 the year before and #10 the year before that. He’s in his prime and loves to get his numbers and still has room to improve. He shot just 42% last year but was 45% in 05-06. Even if he splits the difference, that’s a big gain. The rest of the numbers will certainly be there, including boatloads of 3s. Dirk has improved his actual game over the past two years, but it has hurt his fantasy game. He’s more accurate from long range, but takes fewer 3s. Caveat: If your league counts turnovers, this becomes much more of a toss up.

BV: The thing with Arenas is, I think his risk factor is just as big as people think – if not bigger.  Look at his split stats last year.  He had an unbelievable December, putting up 34 ppg with 3.7 threes on 47% from the field.  But then look at his February, when he was a total mess, yes he had 26 points but was 35% from the field and just 18 percent from the arc!  Meanwhile, Dirk was a machine, only slowing down a bit at the end of the year when the Mavs had little to play for.  You live and die with your studs, and while Gilbert has upside, must I remind you of the original title of FBB?

DM: ok, gilbert was awful in february and he STILL finished as the #3 player based on averages. there’s no way he has a stretch that bad this year. upside is when you deal with guys like stromile swift, who have never proven anything but people continue to be obsessed with them. gilbert is an established top fantasy player, in his prime, the focal point of one of the league’s top offenses.

BV: How is there no way he has a stretch that bad this year?  Also, another thing to worry about is his minutes.  he’s been over 40 mpg each of the last 3 years (well last year it was just under 40, but that counts his last game where he played only 2 mins).  You know Eddie Jordan would like to see that number go down, and with a supposedly-beefed up bench, he might get gilbert down to around 38 mpg or so.

DM: OK, sure, maybe he’ll have a stretch that bad but I don’t see it happening. Granted, he might not have a stretch as good as that glorious run in December/January. But these are the numbers that Gilbert will be putting up for the next 5-7 years, just accept that. And say what you will about the beefed up bench — and the Wizards do have more talent there than they have had during Arenas’s time with the team — but he will play as much as he can handle. Nothing against Dirk — he’s a sure-thing Top 10 player and a fine player to have as the centerpiece of your team. But Arenas is also a sure-thing Top 10 player who has a real chance to be the #1 guy when all is said and done. And that’s why he’s the pick over Dirk.