While we advocate taking the best player available throughout the first four rounds or so, there’s not that much to separate many of the players in this batch so taking guys that complement your first few picks might be the best way to go. Got a couple of guards early on? Might want to go for Al Jefferson. Went with some bigs? Maybe Deron Williams or Kirk Hinrich is what you need.

26. Michael Redd: His career-best season was rudely interrupted by a strained left knee, but Redd was no worse for the wear upon his return. Redd doesn’t do enough to be a true fantasy stud, but he’s exactly what you want in a supporting star. He plays big minutes, is the focal point of his team’s offense, is a force in one category (3s, duh) and chips in a little bit everywhere else. The Bucks have plenty of offensive firepower, but Redd will get his. He’s not the most exciting pick in the third round, but he’ll do just fine.

27. Carlos Boozer: He simply will not block shots, but Boozer is still a fantasy force. His shooting is for real, as he’s one of the most dominant forces in FG%. He’s also a legit 20/10 threat, especially with Deron Williams finding him for easy baskets so often. His ability to stay on the court remains in question, although it was good to see him miss just 8 games with a knee injury that seemingly could have lingered for a while. Boozer has the ability to repeat last year’s numbers, but asking to improve upon them might be a bit much. Don’t forget to get some blocks elsewhere if you draft him.

28. Joe Johnson: Johnson carried a huge burden again for the Hawks before missing the final 21 games with a calf injury. It might turn out to be a good thing. After averaging nearly 41 mpg in 82 contests in 05-06, he was averaging 41.2 mpg in 06-07 before being shut down. Johnson had basically the same season as Michael Redd, except Johnson gets a few more assists and misses more free throws. Those 6.5 apg he averaged in 05-06 won’t be back since the Hawks don’t need him at the point anymore – they hope – so that limits his upside. His injury combined with the fact he plays for the Hawks might allow him to slip to the fourth round. If that happens, he’s a steal.

29. Caron Butler: Tuff Juice took it to another level last year. Whenever a player does that, the big question the next year is if he can repeat it. He set career highs in FG%, FTA, rebounds, assists, steals and points, so that’s a lot of gains to maintain. On a per-game basis he was the #15 player in the league, but since there’s no chance you’ll have to go that high to get him, he’s not a huge risk. The Wizards have a deeper squad this year – at least in theory – and Butler needs those big minutes to accumulate his numbers. It’s not like he’s in danger of getting benched, but there’s a big difference between 40 mpg and 36 mpg. He’ll be very good, but he might not be great again.

30. Gerald Wallace: He stayed relatively healthy and established a new career high in scoring, but the lack of hustle stats made Wallace’s season a slight disappointment. After racking up 2.1 bpg in 05-06, Wallace totaled just 5 blocks in his first 17 games. He had a few good spurts but never really got it going, averaging 1 bpg on the year. He did grab 2 spg – down from 2.5 per game in 05-06 – but even that was a slight disappointment since he saw a career high in minutes. Also, he “inadvertently” knocked Gilbert Arenas out for the year, so a big “fuck him” for that. Wallace played huge minutes during the final months of the season, topping 40 on a regular basis. The presence of Jason Richardson could cause his scoring to drop a bit, but Wallace profiles as a third round pick, albeit one with some definite question marks.

31. Baron Davis: That’s about as good as you can hope for from Baron. He missed 19 games and was pretty awesome when he played, finishing as a top 15 player. Missing 19 games is pretty much the minimum you can except from Davis at this point and he’s unlikely to improve on last year’s play. He finished the season at #31, so put it all together and you should not take him before that spot. He shot a career high 44% last year, so don’t be surprised to see that tumble a bit, but if it does that means he’ll probably improve on his 1.4 3pg, his lowest since 00-01. He’s the ultimate high risk/high reward pick and there are only a few combinations of players you could draft in the first two rounds to make Davis an especially reasonable third rounder.

32. Deron Williams: I was a proud Williams owner last year, and I watched plenty of Jazz games, so let me tell you that he is the real deal. He was so excellent last year that he might not be able to improve too much this season, and he’s better appreciated in real life, whereas Chris Paul is more valuable in fantasy. His big assists numbers might take a hit if Carlos Boozer were to get injured, and you kind of wish he’d grab more rebounds if he wasn’t going to get too many steals. He attempted slightly more but made fewer 3s last year than in his rookie season, so there’s room for improvement there. He slowed down a bit in the second half before coming alive in the playoffs, so if he puts together for the whole season he could finish a top 25 player.

33. Al Jefferson: At this point the only negative thing you can really say about Jefferson is that he’s never played more than 71 games in a season. That’s a bit worrisome for a guy who’s going to be one of the top scoring threats on his team, meaning he’ll be expending plenty of energy every night. But the 22-year-old’s game has blossomed beautifully, and post-ASB numbers of 19.8/11.5/1.8 with 1.7 blocks on 55% shooting are simply fantastic. That post-ASB Celtics should be about as good as the Wolves team Jefferson will play for this season – meaning Jefferson should have free reign to dominate as he pleases – although the big men he’ll face out West should provide some tougher competition. He qualifies at center, likely has some improvement left in him and might even push 70% at the line. He obviously has less of a track record than many other stars, but there are plenty of positive signs.

34. Dwight Howard: First, the good, and there’s plenty. He’s a 21-year-old center who hasn’t missed a game in his three years and is coming off a season in which he averaged 17.6/12.3/1.9 with 1.9 blocks on 60.5% shooting. He even chipped in nearly a steal per game. Only the free throws are holding him back, and they are really holding him back. In weekly H2H leagues this doesn’t matter nearly as much, his it can be a killer in roto leagues. If he was merely a league average free throw shooter, Howard would have been a top 5 player last year. Unfortunately, he’s lost nearly 10 points at the line since his rookie year, dropping to 58.6% last year while taking just over 8 attempts per game. We don’t endorse punting a category on draft day, so Howard would have to be taken in the third round for him to be worth the damage he’ll do. Chances are good someone will jump before that.

35. Tracy McGrady: There’s just something that rubs me the wrong way about McGrady. I feel the way about him the way most people feel about Vince Carter. I’ve long maintained that only Kobe Bryant has as much pure skill as McGrady, but what does McGrady have to show for it? Some gaudy scoring numbers from a few years ago. Maybe getting out from under the oppressive Jeff Van Gundy will help McGrady flourish, but his three years in Houston so far have been marked by inaccurate, high-volume shooting, injuries and general indifference. He’s a career 44% shooter in 683 games, so you know what to expect there. He’s also not a particularly good free throw shooter. If he takes to Rick Adelman’s offense he can no doubt put up 30 ppg, and he should be good for at least 5 or 6 boards and assists per game. If everything goes right he could be a top 15 player, so if you like him and want to take him in the third round, go for it.

36. Kirk Hinrich: The only thing Hinrich blows you away with is his consistency. For three straight seasons he’s put up roughly the same numbers, with the big difference being improved efficiency. His 39.7% shooting from 04-05 was up to a very respectable 44.8% last year, and he didn’t sacrifice any 3s to get there. He rarely has jaw-dropping huge games, but has missed just 3 contests over the past two seasons. With last year’s rash of injuries around the league, you know how much that means; it’s a big reason why he finished the season as a top 20 player. He’s unlikely to get much better, but he’s pretty damn good as it is and if you miss out on one of the very top point guards, he can certainly work as a PG1.

37. Kevin Martin: No player made his owners happier last year than Kevin Martin. And he sure made us proud here at FBB, as we told you – pleaded with you – to go get him in your draft. Last year was no fluke, but it doesn’t mean he’ll be able to repeat those numbers. Martin is perhaps the most deceptively quick player in the league, drawing fouls like nobody’s business simply because his defender was a step slow. There’s no way a rail-thin guy like him should be taking 7 free throws per game, but that’s exactly what Martin did. November was his best month but he never really faltered, he just didn’t maintain his early FG%, which was to be expected. He’s accurate, efficient and helps out everywhere. Now that the Kings have committed big money to him, he will be assured big minutes, which should help offset any statistical decreases in his game. He won’t be a bargain this year, but he’s the real deal.

38. Jason Richardson: He was a monumental bust in the first half but rewarded patient owners, or teams that traded for him, with a dynamite second half. Those second half numbers of 18.6/5.9/4.0 with 2.9 3s, 1.4 spg and 0.8 bpg were up to the level that J-Rich had established for himself over the past couple seasons. The big question now is how he will react to the change of scenery taking him to Charlotte. Richardson automatically becomes the Bobcats’ starting SG and go-to scorer. There might be an adjustment period, but Richardson is still in his prime and has a solid all-around roto game, one that made him a 3^rd round value in 05-06. His FT% woes are for real, though, be warned. He’s a good reason why you should go with a PG or C if it’s a toss up in the first few rounds – solid swingmen like Richardson will be there a few rounds later.

39. Jermaine O’Neal: Certainly one of the most frustrating players to own in all of fantasy hoops. O’Neal managed to play in 69 contests last year, but it wasn’t a clean 69. (Beavis says, “hehehehehe.”) He missed games during eight different stretches, instead of just one block of 13 games, so his owners were often kept guessing at his availability. His 2.6 bpg were huge, but he reverted to his old ways with a 43.7% from the field, as he settled for tons of jumpers. This was reflected in his 6.5 FTA per game, way down from the 8.9 he averaged in 04-05. For various reasons, O’Neal has missed 82 games over the past three seasons, he’s unhappy in Indiana and that team is a mess. That could make him someone to avoid, but at the same time it could allow him to slip down far enough to the point where he makes a reasonable gamble. He sure as hell won’t go in the second round, where I took him last year.

40. Ron Artest: He’s insane, he’s already suspended for the first 7 games of the year and he takes more bad shots that pretty much anyone in the league. Other than that, Artest is a very solid fantasy contributor. He was a top 30 player last year, despite 44/74 percentages, thanks to positive contributions in every other category. There’s always sizable risk involved with drafting Artest, and his situation with the Kings is unknown at this point. Still, you have to think he’ll come out motivated after missing the first handful of contests, and if he plays 70 games he’ll probably prove to be a good draft-day investment.

41. Josh Howard: Howard stepped his game up to another level last season, but his inability to stay on the court for 80 games remains a worry. But who haven’t we said that about? Howard worked on his long range game and hit 1.3 3pg on a very respectable 38.5% shooting, which added greatly to his fantasy value. He also saw a huge jump in FT%, going from 73.4 to 82.7, so who knows if that’s a fluke. Howard is a pretty safe pick because the roles in Dallas are so well defined. Dirk is #1, Howard and Terry are the next options and Jerry Stackhouse is the scorer off the bench. That means Howard is a good bet to repeat his numbers from last season, and if he manages to stay healthy the entire season, he’ll return good value even if he’s taken in the fourth round.

42. Luol Deng: We had Deng pegged as a breakout player for 06-07, but we didn’t think he’d be that good. Instead of expanding his range, he completely eliminated the long jumper from his repertoire, going from 1.9 3PApg in his rookie season two years ago to just 0.1 last year. The result was 52% from the field, which is certainly more valuable than, say, 0.8 3pg. He was well-rounded everywhere else, throwing up 18.8/7.1/2.5 with 1.2 steals and 0.6 blocks, and he led the team in minutes. He’s still just 22 years old, so we may not have seen the best yet. His lack of one dominant skill means that he’s still overlooked. The numbers say he could be considered in the third round, but he’s likely to be there in the fifth. If that’s the case, grab him and don’t think twice.

43. Antawn Jamison: Jamison came to the Wizards as arguably the most durable player in the league but he’s now missed chunks in two of his three seasons in D.C. It hasn’t affected his game and last year was his best for the Wiz mainly because he became a serious long-range threat, connecting on 2 3pg. He’s one of the most creative scorers in the league, and the increase in 3PA hasn’t had a negative effect on his FG% as he reached 45% last year. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and has plenty of miles on him, but his injuries haven’t been chronic things. If he keeps hitting 3s like he did last year that will do wonders in offsetting whatever other declines he might have.

44. Leandro Barbosa: Even without taking into account his dynamic skills, Barbosa’s less of a risk than most bench players because he plays for a team with an extremely thin bench and Steve Nash will rarely top 35 minutes. Barbosa has hit an amazing nearly 44% of his 3s over the past two seasons, so that skill is for real. Barbosa managed 19 starts last year and his numbers in those games were 19.6/3.0/4.9 with 1.7 steals and 2.5 3s in 39 mpg. He’ll turn 25 in the season’s first month, so he might have another gear. Everything is perfect for him except the fact that he comes off the bench. And he still managed to finish 15/38 last year, despite just under 33 mpg. There’s an exception to every rule, and Barbosa’s the exception to the Minutes Above All Else rule. He has less downside than you might think.

45. Brandon Roy: Yes, he was fantastic last season, and maybe those comparisons to D-Wade aren’t completely ridiculous and instead just slightly ridiculous. But one thing he also seems to have in common with Wade is a tendency to be perpetually banged up. His preseason is already a wash and counting on him for 80 games may be a stretch. We’ll see if he can handle being the #1 option with Zach Randolph in New York – that 45.6% from the field could take a dip if he has to take more shots. He’s already 23, but that doesn’t mean he won’t get plenty better. The only real drawback with Roy is that he’s played 57 NBA games while there are other players who will be available at the same time who have put up better numbers over hundreds of games.

46. Emeka Okafor: Okafor was greatly improved in his third season, seeing a startling jump in FG%, from 41.5% to 53.2%. He also became the block machine that we thought he would be after swatting away shot after shot at Connecticut, finishing third in the league with 2.6 bpg. It’s dangerous to expect a player who makes great leaps to hold onto those gains completely, and in Okafor’s case a repeat of the 53% shooting is less likely. A strained calf caused him to miss 15 games, but it was his only injury of the year, which bodes well for the future. His FT% is certainly a liability, and at 25 years old he might be as good as he’s going to get, but who doesn’t want 14.4/11.3 with 2.6 blocks and almost a steal?

47. Ricky Davis: If you saw our mock draft, you’ll see that I spent my fifth round pick on the guy who Gets Buckets. Right now Davis is the most reliable scorer on a young Minnesota squad, which should lead to fantasy success. The problem is that he’s likely to be moved or phased out during the year. At least that’s what everyone says. What we know is that Minnesota has one of the most dysfunctional front offices around, Davis is playing for a new contract and he will make sure he gets his numbers. It might not last long; that’s a definite risk. And it’s not like Davis is a superior talent. He’s a slightly above-average swingman, but one who stays healthy and can handle 40 mpg. He was actually a top 30 player last year (#52 using averages) and should repeat that if he manages to stay in Minnesota all year. But that’s a huge if.

48. Mike Miller: Memphis finally let Miller play big minutes and was rewarded with a very solid season that saw Miller emerge as a top 40 fantasy player. Like many swingmen his value came from drilling tons of 3s and getting enough minutes to put up decent numbers everywhere else. Miller’s always had a tendency to get banged up and he won’t see much more than the 39 mpg he saw last year. There’s no reason he shouldn’t remain a focal point of the Grizzlies’ offense and put up similar numbers to last season. But he’s more likely to take a step back than take a step forward.

49. Tony Parker: He certainly doesn’t do it in the traditional way, but Parker has established himself as one of the most consistent second-tier PGs around. He doesn’t hit 3s, is merely average in steals and has averaged more than 6 apg just once, but his durability and high-percentage shooting make him plenty valuable. He doesn’t even need big minutes, as he averaged just 32.5 per game last season and has never reached the 35 mark. We’ll see if he can maintain his gains at the line – his 78% last year is a clear aberration in his career line – but Parker is still improving and is slowly starting to take over the offense from Duncan. Because of his non-traditional game Parker usually lasts a round longer than he theoretically should.

50. Manu Ginobili: How did he do that? Ginobili turned 27.5 mpg in 75 contests, half of them off the bench, into a top 20 fantasy season. We preach the overriding importance of minutes played, but Ginobili has proven he can succeed in limited PT. Still, he’s constantly banged up and always has to maximize his production since he plays around 10 minutes less than most players he’ll be drafted near. He’ll give you 1.5 3s and steals, solid percentages and a little bit of help everywhere else. He’s proven he’s capable, but I still have a hard time passing up 750 extra minutes another player might receive.