Lots of second-tier PG and C in this batch. It’s a case of who you like better, really. Do you want the upside – and horrible FG% — of Raymond Felton? Or do you want the boring consistency of Andre Miller? Do you want the 1/1/1 all-around game of Rasheed Wallace? Or do you want a low-scoring, blocks machine like Samuel Dalembert of Andris Bidrins.
51. Jason Terry: He’s quickly becoming the most underdrafted player in the league. Terry’s been remarkably consistent during his three seasons in Dallas, morphing from a 43% shooter during his Atlanta days to a 48% shooting in the Big D. It was nice to see his assists bump back up to 5.2 last year, although that could drop if Devin Harris finally asserts himself. Still, there isn’t anyone with a better history of good health, and you can mark him down for at least 16 ppg and 2 3pg with solid percentages. He’s finished with third round value in each of the last two seasons, but because of his lack of upside there’s no chance he’ll go that high. Few people plan on drafting Jason Terry, it just gets to a point where you can’t pass him up.
52. Ben Gordon: Weird – Gordon actually averaged nearly two points more per game coming off the bench than he did as a starter. He’ll be starting this year and he’ll score plenty. Gordon became much more efficient last year, going from 42.2 to 45.3% from the field and getting to the line a full two times more per game, and he nailed 86% of those freebies. He simply doesn’t get many steals and turns the ball over like crazy, so knock him down in TO leagues. Don’t except tons more minutes just because he’ll be starting. It’s still Scott Skiles on the bench and even though he was a bit better last year, he’s still Scott Skiles. Thabo Sefolosha will get in there when the team needs some help on D and Adrian Griffin will get in there when Skiles feels like sending a message. Gordon managed to finish top 25 last year because of the rash of injuries around the league, but his per-game average of 50 is a more accurate reading of his true value.
53. Mehmet Okur: Okur had a deceptively unproductive year. He hit some crucial three-pointers that helped gain him a reputation as a clutch player, but for fantasy purposes he took a big step back. The actual increase in 3s was modest – 1.6 per from 1 – but he lost two rebounds, down to 7.2, and almost half a block, down to 0.5. Those are tough numbers to overcome from a center, especially since his 46% from the field didn’t make up for it. If Boozer were to get hurt Okur’s rebound numbers would probably rise, and the law of averages say he should block a few more shots, but he’s not someone to reach for.
54. Rasheed Wallace: It was a down season, but it wasn’t a disaster. Wallace still finished around the top 50, put up the steals and blocks numbers you’d expect and hit a solid 1.4 3pg. His FG% continued to fall and he averaged his fewest points since the first Clinton administration. The big thing to point out is that Wallace no longer qualifies at center in some leagues, which gives his value a serious hit. He’s still a solid mid-round pick, but don’t think you’ve filled a need in the middle by taking him.
55. Mo Williams: Who couldn’t see that breakout season coming – a shoot-first point guard handed big minutes and the reigns of a fast-paced offense in a contract season? Yes, please. Williams didn’t disappoint, finishing as a top 50 player on per-game numbers. Can he come through with an encore performance? It’s quite possible, mainly because Milwaukee has very few other PG options on the roster, meaning Williams could be in store for more big minutes. Still, last year is about as good as Williams gets. He produces because of opportunity and minutes, not because he’s a superstar.
56. Lamar Odom: Odom’s never been a particularly strong bet to play 75 games in a season and the fact that he’s beginning the year with big injury questions doesn’t bode well. It also doesn’t bode well that he’s in the same exact situation in L.A. where he’s basically left to grab boards and live on Kobe Bryant’s scraps. His big assist numbers for the PF spot – and the fact that he gives you the rebounds you want, as well – gives him sly fantasy value. If the Lakers ever make a deal to bring another star to L.A., Odom is almost definitely going the other way which in theory is a good thing.
57. LaMarcus Aldridge: If you’re everyone’s favorite sleeper, you can’t be a sleeper anymore. Aldridge was mighty impressive during his rookie season, especially because Nate McMillain made him earn everything. He showed impressive scoring ability, especially with his jump shot, but he wasn’t too shabby on the boards or getting blocks. Fouls were a big problem and he’s going to have to bulk up if he has any hope of staying on the court at center. Greg Oden’s absence means that Aldridge should be able to get as many minutes as he can handle, which has fantasy players dreaming of big things. If you want him, you’re going to have to go get him, because he certainly won’t drop.
58. Mike Bibby: Maybe we should have FBB commenter bublitchki write this one. I thought we’d have to put Bibby in the Witness Protection Program for how much bublitchki – and surely plenty of other fantasy owners – wanted to kill him. But Bibby was his usual self after the ASB, except his scoring was down as he realized that maybe he should let the team’s best scorer – that’d be Kevin Martin, obviously – take more shots. His assists were below 4 after the break but his 3s were right near 3, a fair trade off, especially since Bibby’s never really been an assists machine. Bibby was a top 30 player in 05-06; sure he’s getting older and the Kings are getting a lot suckier but not that much could have changed. Because he was such a massive disappointment last year he’ll probably fall a round or two more than he should and could make for a solid mid-round addition.
59. Raymond Felton: I’d really like to see the dude shoot 40% before I put him on my team. Felton’s a PG on the rise who could be in for a breakout season, but man does that FG% kill you. If you play in a TO league, it’s a double whammy. On the plus side, Felton has Jason Richardson around now to dish the ball to, as well as relieve him of some pressure. He’s got no health issues and no Brevin Knight issues, so a 17/4/8.5 season with healthy doses of 3s and steals isn’t out of the question. But he will have to put up those numbers unless he has a miraculous bout of accuracy from the field. It’s possible and since it’ll only cost a mid-round pick it might be a risk worth taking.
60. Kevin Durant: I don’t do rookies. Sometimes it means I lose out on a good player. Most of the time it means I take a more reliable player while someone else is stuck with an inconsistent, frustrating player. Durant should score plenty of points, although if he’s really going to play SG, we’ll see how many boards he gets. Maybe if he’s guarding smaller guys it’ll help him get some blocks? Will it be more exciting to draft Kevin Durant than Richard Hamilton? Yes. Does Kevin Durant have a greater upside for 07-08 than Richard Hamilton. Yes. Will he end up being more valuable at the end of April? Maybe, but that’s for you to experience first hand.
61. David West: Fantasy owners won’t like that he’s never averaged more than 1 steal, block or 3 in any season, but West gets the job done. Think of him as a young Shareef Abdur-Rahim, although the presence of board monster Tyson Chandler might keep him just below the 20/10 plateau on the rebound side of things. He’s a good shooter (49%/80% for his career), is young and is a definite focal point of the Hornets’ offense. His elbow problems from last year shouldn’t linger to this year – they sure didn’t linger into the last month of last season – and he should be a steadying force on fantasy rosters for years to come.
62. Samuel Dalembert: He finally managed to start 82 games, but it was still a slightly disappointing season for Dalembert. He did manage to finish at 47/63 in the rankings, but those hoping for dominance in blocks got merely a very good performance, as his 1.9 per game came just a year after he averaged 2.4 while receiving 4 fewer minutes per contest. You never like when big men get foot problems, and that’s what Dalembert is fighting right now. Those have a tendency to cause problems, although Pau Gasol came back just fine last year. The Sixers frontcourt is ridiculously thin – they barely have a starting PF, let alone a backup C – so this could be the year Dalembert starts to see big minutes. If the injury scares people away, he could be a nice value pick.
63. Tyson Chandler: There’s just something unsettling about using a pick in the first half of the draft on a player who will be lucky to average 10 ppg. It leaves very little margin for error, since scoring contributions account for four categories. Last year Chandler shot a ridiculous 62% from the field, and there’s just no way he can repeat that. Consistency has never been his strong suit and he’s still never averaged more than 1.8 bpg. He grabs tons of boards and has done a good job staying on the court, but it’s not like he really has any chance to improve on what he did last year. Just keep that in mind when you’re considering him in the 5th or 6th round.
64. Andre Miller: One of the most boring and reliable players out there. You can pretty much use permanent marker to give him his 13.5/8.2/4.5, 1.5 steals, 46% shooting and no 3s to speak of. His assists went down once he went to a Philly but the rest of his numbers stayed pretty much the same. He has absolutely no upside, so don’t reach for him – not that you’ll have to, of course – and John Hollinger thinks he’s in for a big drop-off, but he also picked the Wizards to win just 33 games this season, so, y’know, fuck that guy.
65. Andris Biedrins: And that’s why you have to be aggressive on the waiver wire early on. Biedrins went from afterthought to fantasy force within the first few weeks of the season. He never did match his spectacular November, in which he averaged 11.1/9.8/1.4 with 2.8 blocks on 65% shooting, but that’s nothing to be ashamed of. He had his ups and downs, had a very disappointing end of the regular season and can’t hit free throws. But he looks like a legit – albeit low-volume – 60% shooter and at 21 has plenty of room for improvement. He’s unproven and has to deal with the whims of Don Nelson, but he makes one of the better C2s around and can certainly pass as C1 if the first few rounds of your draft take you elsewhere.
66. Corey Maggette: Maggette always puts up the same numbers; it’s his minutes that fluctuate. He’s been a very frustrating player to own the last two seasons, first because of injury and then because of lack of PT, but the stars have aligned this year. Guaranteed starting spot, contract year, no Elton Brand = big things. At least that’s how it should be. Maggette is one of those swingmen who could play 35 mpg and still not average a 3, steal or block, so that limits his upside. But 23 ppg, dominance from the charity stripe and decent contributions elsewhere are very possible. Health has always been an issue, but he has extra incentive to stay healthy this year. He’s one of our favorite mid-round picks this year.
67. Richard Hamilton: Hamilton did exactly what you’d expect. He averaged 20 ppg with solid percentages and a little bit of everything else. He missed a few more games than usual, but nothing to worry about. He’s one of the most predictable players in the game, in a good way. Expect more of the same.
68. Zach Randolph: This should be fun. Randolph is an uncanny force on the blocks, but so is Eddy Curry. Curry doesn’t like to pass. Randolph doesn’t like to pass, but compared to Curry he’s a regular Rod Strickland. Also, all of those guys are sorta fat. It’s easy to predict the worst for Randolph, but he’s always made sure to get his numbers. Those numbers, of course, being points and rebounds. Curry’s already hurt, he gets tired and in foul trouble a lot. You’re not going to have to pay full price for his excellent season last year, so he’s not the worst mid-round choice.
69. T.J. Ford: Last year Ford played the best ball of his career — by far — but the presence of Jose Calderon kept him from making a major leap in fantasy circles. Despite seeing almost 6 fewer minutes per game, Ford averaged career highs in points and assists and matched his career high in steals. His numbers of 14.0, 7.9 and 1.4 in those three categories are exactly what you want from a PG, and he did all that with just under 30 mpg. Unfortunately for Ford, he still has Calderon around to steal playing time and it’s hard to see him performing as well as he did last season. Ford has missed just 17 regular season contests over the past two years, so he appears to be no more an injury risk as most players, but until the PT situation is sorted out, he’s just another mid-round PG2.
70. Monta Ellis: He’s not paralyzed, so that’s good. That scare may have cooled down the hype machine a bit on Ellis, which is probably for the best. The soon-to-be-22-year-old has great skills, but let’s not anoint him a fantasy savior yet. Even if he doesn’t start he’ll see plenty of minutes, a la Leandro Barbosa, but you get the feeling that even if Baron Davis goes down he might not get the starting nod. His game is well-rounded and he can finish around the basket, so that 47.5% from the field might not be a fluke. Remember that he did average 34+ mpg last year. He’s really not going to see much more than that. He’s the kind of player that someone will likely reach for, so you better really like him to draft him.
71. Richard Jefferson: You can almost cross a line through last year. He got hurt early on, was banged up for most of the season and got hurt again. He was very solid in the playoffs, though, averaging nearly 20 ppg while out there for nearly 41 mpg. At just 27 years old he seems like a prime candidate for a bounceback season, and it’s very much worth remembering that in 05-06 he finished the season as a Top 35 player. He doesn’t excel in any of the specialty categories, which means people sometimes look past him, making him one of those big-minute SF that have become somewhat undervalued in “serious” leagues. He makes a very good mid-round target.
72. Andrei Kirilenko: It’s anybody’s guess, really. If you drafted AK47 last year, you didn’t win your league. It’s pretty much as simple as that. It was a total disaster and now nobody knows what to expect now. The trade demand followed by the “patching up†with Jerry Sloan doesn’t really change anything. He’s only 26, so he obviously has the ability to put up numbers befitting a top 20 season, something he’s done before. But this is clearly the team of Williams and Boozer now. Kirilenko can still be get some blocks and steals, but he’ll have to fight for his offense. Think of him as a better Shane Battier, not someone to build your team around.
73. Danny Granger: Granger’s a popular breakout candidate – and we do like him – but he did play 34 mpg last year. If he can become a 40 mpg player, then he’s in for some serious fantasy value. If not, he might disappoint. His 3PA went from 1.2 per game to 3.5 last year. If he continues to fire away it will do wonders for his fantasy value. Like Tayshaun Prince he’s a lanky defensive stopper who doesn’t really get many steals or blocks, rendering him not as useful for fantasy purposes.
74. Al Harrington: He qualifies at center in many leagues, which could be a good thing or a bad thing depending on how you manage your roster. It’s often tough to find useful players to plug into those center spots, but if one of those guys is good for 6.5 boards and 0.3 blocks per game you’re likely to be in a hole anyway. Harrington will likely do what he always does: 17/6/2.5, mediocre percentages and more 3s than usual since he’s playing for Nellie.
75. Ben Wallace: That went about as expected. Big Ben had a rough start in Chicago, but his final numbers weren’t terrible, simply the expected decline for a 32-year-old big man who gets by on hustle. It’s hard to argue with 10.7 boards, 1.4 steals and 2 blocks, and he even chipped in 2.4 dimes. But he’s a liability everywhere else and the trends aren’t pretty – six straight years of declining blocks and five straight years of declining boards. By now everyone should know that this is not the dominating player of 01 to 03 and that player is highly, highly unlikely to ever come back. He’s still good for those boards and some blocks, but he’s just another non-scoring, mid-round center now.
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