Late Greats – The Young Vets

Sleepers.  Everyone’s got ‘em.  Over the next few days, we’re going to take a look-see at some of the guys you could (should?) be looking at with your late round picks.  One of the groups that I like looking at late are guys who are still young but have played a few unspectacular years so that they may be written off by some folks, but could have the doors open up for them this year.  For example:

Robert Swift
There are a lot of eyes on the Sonics and their youth movement but I haven’t seen a lot of talk about his guy, who I think will have more value than Jeff Green this year.  Swift missed all of last year with a knee injury and could be limited early.  But look at the facts: He will only be 21 years old when the season starts.  At 19 years old – two years ago – his per 30 minute stats were 9.1/8 with 1.7 blocks, and now he’s come back with a new knee and a new attitude.  He’s got huge tattoos all over and seems to be ready to mash it up inside.  Guys typically make a lot of improvement between 19 and 21, but Swift has been off everyone’s radar screen so his name may not show up on a lot of draft boards.  Still, he could be the starting center for the Sonics and numbers like 12/10/2 aren’t unrealistic for him this year.  I wouldn’t necessarily reach for him for a utility slot given his knee issues but he could be a great asset to hide on your bench for a month of two until he gets into playing form.

Andray Blatche
Like Swift, Blatche will only be 21 when the season starts.  Unlike Swift, he will not be dealing with any injuries.  The question for Blatche, more than anything, is PT.  He has the potential to be a nice utility player as he contributes in pretty much every category expect FT%, but will he get minutes on a team trying to make the playoffs?  If so, it’s going to be at center, where Etan Thomas’s heart issues leave about 20 minutes of PT up for grabs, and Blatche also has the ability to play the 4 and occasionally the 3.  But he’s going to need to be a major part of the Wizards rotation (i.e. at least 25 mpg) to have any sort of value from a fantasy perspective.  He’ll be fighting for those minutes with Darius Songaila, Oleksiy Pecherov and maybe even Dominic McGuire, but with Michael Ruffin and Calvin Booth gone, the minutes will certainly be available.  Blatche is absolutely worth a late-round flyer to see if he can work himself into the rotation.

Rashad McCants
McCants is a little bit older than the first few guys on this list at 23, but he’s been hidden just as much as anyone the last few years, struggling with knee surgery and getting stuck behind vets like Troy Hudson, Mike James, and Marko Jaric in the Timberwolves backcourt.  But signs are pointing to a potential breakout year for McCants.  First, his knee is apparently all better as he’s played major minutes in both of the Wolves preseason games.  Second, a ton of those vets have been cleared out – Hudson was bought out, James traded, and Trenton Hassell was also dealt.  Yes, there are some new guys fighting for time like Gerald Green, but with Randy Foye dealing with tendonitis already there may be more minutes available than we think.  The thing that concerns me with McCants is upside – there’s just not a lot of it.  He doesn’t rebound or pass very well, and he’s atrocious from the line for a SG.  Still, we have to give him a pass for last year due to his knee problems I think, and he’s going to give you some value in threes if nothing else.  McCants is a fine, very late-round pick.

Jason Maxiell
Maxiell has all the signs of a guy who is ready to bust out.  The playing time is available – with Chris Webber out of the picture and Nazi Mohammed redecorating his doghouse, Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace are the only 2 viable bigs left on the Pistons roster.  The good summer stories are there – he showed up 30 pounds lighter to the Summer League and dominated there (and even shot 76% from the line!).  And the big man stats are there – he’s a blocks/boards machine.  Maxiell is probably the least risky of the guys on this list and for that reason could probably be drafted as a utility guy though we’d like him better starting off the year on our bench.  But his upside is as high as anyone’s and for that reason he’s worth the chance if you want to reach for him a few rounds early.

01
alex
October 16th, 2007 10:51 am

what about tyrus thomas - how do you reckon he’ll go compared to say maxiell?

and i hope you write about the crop of sleeper guards - reddick, belinni, navarro, ronnie brewer, law, conley (and marvin williams since he’s playin SG atm)

02
Nasir
October 16th, 2007 11:33 am

How come you guys like to take late-round picks on these guys instead of just picking them up off waivers once they have value?

03
Terrance
October 16th, 2007 12:35 pm

jaun carlos navarro and jj redick? Whats your opinions on them?

i like maxiell the most out of that bunch. Blatche wll be good, but it may be too soon for him, but with thomas out like you said, the oppurtunity wil be there.

04
Ambiv
October 16th, 2007 5:11 pm

If Maxiell is good, what about Amir Johnson? He’s only 20 but this will be his third year. He has hasn’t played much, but his per-40 stats are through the roof (15ppg, 11.5rpg, 4bpg). Heard great things about this kid, where do you place him relative to these other young vets?

05
Rook
October 16th, 2007 8:56 pm

I’d be curious how you rank the guys you listed compared to other late-round guys this year: Ronnie Brewer, Calderon, Szczerbiak, Steve Francis, and Tim Thomas.

06
bv
October 17th, 2007 5:56 am

alex, i’m not too high on thomas this year - i think he’s got all the talent in the world, but with joe smith and jo noah there, will he gets the minutes he needs to be successful? I still think that frontcourt is a little too crowded for my liking.

nasir, the idea is to draft ‘em so that you don’t have to get ‘em on waivers!

Terrance, I hate Duke, I hate JJ Redick. See my post today for JCN.

Ambiv, Johnson is certainly on my radar screen but he’s gotta get some actual PT in the regular season before he’s a legit fantasy option. I don’t think you have to worry about someone else taking him.

Rook, I like Szczerbiak way more than the rest of those guys. compared to some of these … well, it’s really tough to say. that’s why at some point it doesn’t make sense to do rankings. it’s all about risk and some of those guys, like calderon, are low risk but low reward. who’s to say he’s any better or worse than, say, McCants?

07
Tyler
October 17th, 2007 9:50 am

Just wondering what your thoughts on Travis Outlaw is. For picking my sleepers i try to look for players who finish the season strong the previous year. I really like Outlaw for his defensive stats and much improved percentages. I believe he has the starting SF spot.

08
Terrance
October 17th, 2007 10:53 am

Tyler, A friend of mine is high on Outlaw. He can get to the line and hit some free throws. Decent steals and blocks with 30+ min/game.

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