BV:  We’ve spilled plenty of virtual ink on at least one sophomore NBA player this year, LaMarcus Aldridge.  But what about the other second-year guys?  Have they shown the improvement we would have liked to see over their rookie year?  Let’s start with one of Aldridge’s teammates out in Portland, Brandon Roy.  Roy was one of the few rooks to have any real value last year, and ended up at a very respectable 59 on the APR.  Considering it was only his rookie year, and the fact that he was going to step in to a bigger role in the offense, it was reasonable to expect him to pump up those numbers a bit and land with an APR somewhere in the 40’s.  But instead, he’s dropped down to 70!  A closer look at his game log shows that he’s definitely got the talent, but every so often he has a game that is just awful, like his 4-18, 12/2/1 night on Monday against Portland.  What’s more, his rebounding and FT% have curiously taken a hit.  DM, is there any cause for concern here – could he actually be a buy-low?

DM: I’m not worried about Roy, at least talent-wise. I’d still like to see him prove that he can play a full season without being injured, though. He might be suffering a bit from the loss of Zach Randolph, as Aldridge is the only other player on the Blazers that defenses need to pay any sort of special attention to. But he’s improved his outside game and continues to be an excellent playmaker. I’d like to see him get to the line a bit more — 4.8 attempts in 38 mpg is a bit too passive — but he’s going to be a main offensive threat on the Blazers for years to come, ensuring solid fantasy value. I still see him as a solid 4th round value. I’ve been very impressed with Ronnie Brewer in Utah. He’s thieving like a maniac, racking up 2.6 spg which puts him in the top 50 so far, but even when that number naturally comes down, he should still be a valuable roster filler for fantasy squads. His upside is clearly limited because of his status as the fifth option on Utah, as evidenced by his low 8.7 FGA per game, but he’s consistently around the 30 mpg mark and is seeing crunch time action over Matt Harpring, which wasn’t happening a year ago. He has the makings of a Tayshaun Prince-type, the kind of guy you don’t target, but grab when he falls to you and enjoy the production from your 9th or 10th spot.

BV: Exactly right on Brewer.  If you look at the ESPN player rater you’ll see that while Brewer derives nearly all of his fantasy value from his steals (+2.87 on their system), even if those cut in half he’ll be around the 50’s or 60’s overall.  That’s fantastic from the 9th or 10th spot, and actually acceptable from the 5th or 6th spot. And I don’t mind the fact that he’s taking only 8.7 FGA, because he’s taking high-quality shots – his 52% from the field is fantastic, and he’s getting to the line 4.6 times per game, which is fantastic compared to the numbers you just showed us from Roy.  Still, he’s got to perform like this – or close to it – for at least another month or so before I’m going to be a believer.  The other big breakout that we’ve seen so far this year from the sophs has to be Rudy Gay.  Not just from an NBA standpoint – he’s become the clear #2 on that team behind Pau Gasol - but from a fantasy standpoint, where he looks to be a guy that will provide the coveted Triple-One (one 3, one steal, one block per game).  When it’s all said and done, doesn’t he have a great chance to be at the top of this class?

DM: Rudy Gay has been extremely impressive lately and looks to be establishing himself as the team’s #1 option. Hell, he’s outscoring Gasol by half a point on the year so far. Gay has drastically improved his jump shot and either he’s falling in love with the 3 or Iavaroni is telling to fall in love with the 3, but whatever the reason, he’s attempting more per game than Mike Miller, noted long-range specialist. The Grizz have plenty of firepower and love to play bombs away, so this is a great sign for his fantasy value. He looked might impressive against the Wizards a few nights ago, hitting plenty of tough shots and was very active on the offensive boards. Consistency still isn’t his strong suit, but he’s reached double digit scoring in all but two games this year and he is a perfect fit for this Grizzlies team. I still think that the Blazer duo might be better just because they are the unquestioned leaders of their team, but Gay is close. How about Shawne Williams on the Pacers? His outside touch is for real, and he got the start for Jim O’Brien’s squad last night. If (haha, if) Jermaine O’Neal misses significant time, Williams could benefit greatly, especially in that new up-tempo offense the Pacers are running. I still haven’t seen enough of him to know for sure, but he could very well be a solid contributor as long as he stays out of off-court troubles, of course.

BV:  Well, if Shawne Williams is EVER going to have value, it’s now.  He’s got loads of PT in front of him and he’s in a situation where he’s more than welcome to chuck threes all night long.  But the fact is, he doesn’t rebound (other than last night), can’t shoot from the stripe, and doesn’t contribute anything defensively.  So he’s going to have to get a LOT of value from those threes.  He sorta seems like a poor man’s Mickael Pietrus, and that doesn’t sound too appetizing.

So we’ve talked a bunch about guys who have looked pretty good … let’s figure out who’s on the other end of the spectrum.  Has there been a bigger sophomore slumper than Tyrus Thomas?  He’s so explosive but just can’t seem to figure out when and where is the best place to explode.  I can’t decide if this is a case of the rest of his team dragging him down (thank you very much, Kirk Hinrich), or if he’s just not as good as we thought, or if he needs some more time to develop?

DM: I was watching the Bulls/Hawks game the other night and there was one sequence that really defined Thomas’s season so far. On the offensive end he was at the top of the key and made a nice drive to the hoop, but his layup attempt was easily swatted away by Josh Smith. Going back on the other end Thomas was overaggressive when guarding Smith, who easily went by him, leaving Thomas no choice but to hack him. He’s still plenty skilled and is only 21, but right now he’s a guy with percentages of 41/52 who is averaging 3.4 fouls in just 21 mpg. He still has a great chance to be something like the next Ben Wallace, a monster in boards, steals and blocks, but it might not be for a while. I’ve got him parked at the bottom of my bench. Someone I might think about putting on my bench soon is Rajon Rondo. It’s not that he’s been terrible, he’s just been very unexciting. He’s even been a disappointment in steals, where I expected him to dominate. After grabbing 13 in the first four games of the season, he has only 7 in his 9 games since then, very underwhelming numbers for someone who was among the league leaders in steals per minute last year. The Celtics have no choice but to play him for at least 30 mpg, and his 2.5:1 assist/turnover ratio is solid (unlike his 43.5% from the line), but unless he picks it up, he might find himself coming off the bench once some veterans become available later in the year.

Okay, Antoine Walker really shouldn’t be in the All-Star game. It’s rediculous to think he should even be a candidate. But, right now there is a Internet movement that is trying to vote Shane Battier and Antoine Walker as starters for the upcoming NBA All-Star game. Battier, suprisingly enough, has a legitimate chance if people dilligently work to vote him in, while Walker…would just be hillarious to see him make it. I think it would be great to see this happen, and if you would too then please vote and make it reality. Click here for more information.

It seems like the NBA has been on autopilot for the last few weeks. Players that have struggled have continued to stink up fantasy lines (Kirk Heinrich was actually dropped in one of my leagues!) while players who have been on fire continue their spirited play. As a result, I don’t have that much to talk about today, which is probably a good thing as I have four final exams next week. However, I do have a few points of interest to note:

• Dwight Howard is currently ranked #16 on the APR. Looks like he’s justifying the rationale of the people who went and took him “too early”, as in the second round.
• Antoine Walker is actually producing some value. Over the last week he is rated #31 in the APR and has had a series of good games. If you are looking for help in 3PTM, give him a look.
• Jamario Moon continues to be impressive, with a 6-block performance and a rating of #24 on the weekly APR. I don’t know why I have yet to pick him up, but if he continues to play like this then he won’t be around for very long.

Also, just a quick question to our readers, but what type of fantasy leagues do you play in? Standard Roto and H2H leagues, or perhaps something different like a KFBA league or one with strange scoring methods? I personally play mainly H2H and want to get a sense of what you guys are playing, so I can better tailor my advice and strategy columns.

On a last note, I want to give my condolences to the family and friends of Sean Taylor, the Washington Redskins safety who was lethally shot in his home on Sunday night by a burgler. It is a horrible tragedy that has become all too common recently. Both BV and DM are from the Washington D.C. area, and I’m sure they are seeing the effects first-hand.

Next time I promise to write more about basketball and fantasy advice. It’s just been one of those weeks. Take care until next time.

One of our favorite little tricks here is the ‘buy fake high’ or the ’sell fake low,’ where basically you get some other owner to think they’re buying low or selling high when really, the player is as good/as bad as he’s performing.  Confused?  Tough.  Anyhow, a couple weeks ago DM went over some Buy Fake High candidates  – now let’s go over some Sell Fake Low’s.

Brad Miller – OK, now I’ve got Brad Miller on my fantasy team, and while my team is absolutely stuffed to the gills with disappointments, Miller has been … noticeable.  And yes, I wrote this before his good game last night, but whatever.  His FG% is easily the lowest of his career, and the assists just aren’t there, either.  What’s worse, his #109 on the APR is artificially high – there’s no way he keeps up his 1.3 bpg or his 89% from the stripe.  Now, you could see a couple of owners thinking about buying low on Miller thinking that he’ll eventually start hitting shots and getting assists.  And Miller does have some built-in minimal value as a starting center that plays over 30 mpg. But I don’t see it happening, and the main reason for that is the system.  Under Rick Adelman, Sacramento centers like Miller and Vlade Divac handled the ball like guards in the post, looking to make the extra pass and posting great assists numbers for their position.  Miller thrived in a situation like that, even when he was hurt.  But take Miller out of Adelman’s system and he’s just not the same guy.  In his previous stops in Charlotte, Chicago and Indiana, he never averaged more than 2.6 apg.   Between the new system, the age, and the injury risk, I’d say that if you’ve got a couple extra C’s and you can get a mid-round value for Miller, go ahead and do it.

Chris Bosh – This one might surprise you, but I think Bosh has one of the most inflated values of anyone in fantasy basketball.  He’s always treated like an early second-round pick, but look at his APR’s the last few years: two years ago he was 21, last year he was at 27, and right now he’s at 39.  Yes he’s only 23, but this is his 5th year in the league, and he’s dealing with plantar fascitis, so it’s not like he’s a lock to improve despite his age.  The fact of the matter is that the Raptors are a better team when they are moving the ball around and everyone is getting their shots – they’ve currently got 8 guys averaging over 8 ppg.  What might be best for the Raptors isn’t necessarily what’s best for Bosh owners, and that looks to be the case here.  Other owners will look at his deflated numbers and point to his minutes just being down, but I look at them and see a guy who’s probably still bothered by his foot issues and is better off taking a bit of a lesser role in his offense.  If you can find an owner who saw his recent outburst and thinks that Bosh may be a first-round value, I’d say make that move.

Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge – Now, I’m not suggesting that Durant and Aldridge have been playing poorly or even dissapointing owners this year.  Aldridge is a solid 6th round value on the APR at 67 and Durant is almost right there with him at 73.  And you know what?  If they end up in those same spots at the end of the year, that’s solid.  But I think that some owners out there expected more – way more.  And while a lot of owners overpaid for these guys with fourth and even third round picks, a lot of other owners were itching to grab him just a few picks later.  Now that the  youngsters haven’t necessarily reached their overhyped expactations, some might be preying on them, thinking that there will be some major improvement over the next few months.  And you know what?  There might be.  But it’s not going to be drastic.  Durant might improve his shot a bit, but remember that it took LeBron a full year of shooting 41% before he eventually settled into the high-40’s in his sophomore season.  And with the amount that he’s turning the ball over, don’t expect a jump in assists anytime soon.  And Aldridge, well, what’s wrong with what he’s doing now?  Sure he’s not blocking shots as we thought he might, but that’s OK.  He’s also shooting absurdly well for a guy who’s the only low-post threat on his team and thus gets the best big man defending him each game.  Despite that, some owners are likely still salivating at the upside of these guys – and as we always say here at FBB, BEWARE UPSIDE.  If you can get 4th round value for either of these guys, go for it.

How to use your bench spots is always one of those smaller team management issues that can have a big effect on how your season plays out. In our 12-team league we have three bench spots to go along with our 10 active spots. If this season is anything like last, then it won’t be too long until everyone’s bench spots are occupied with injured stars. But until that time, those spots have some definite value, especially as we get to the second month of the season and trends start to become more obvious.

Here’s my bench strategy for this season – go with young players with massive upside, especially in the categories I’m weak in, and hope one or two of them pan out. It may seem fairly obvious, but right now I can say that I’m pretty much done making roster moves for a while. No more picking up a player after a hot game, no more temporary PG strategy. I’m sticking with what I’ve got. Since I drafted at #11, I’m lacking a real superstar on my team. And since I loaded up on high-minute swingmen (Iguodala, Butler, Jefferson, etc.) I don’t have too many blocks of 3s. Those are the categories I need help in, so this is how I’m using my bench spots. Instead of going for the quick fix I’m going to stay patient and hope that I end up with a player who will be a surefire fantasy starter for the second half of the season. I’m going to rundown the four guys I’m stashing on my bench right now. (I’ll save up some utility games until I feel comfortable using them.)

Spot #1 – Jason Maxiell
I snagged him when Antonio McDyess went down for a few games a week or so ago and of course threw him in the lineup right away and watched him get in serious foul trouble and put up pedestrian numbers. The fact that he started when McDyess was out wasn’t too surprising, but to see him manning the middle when Rasheed Wallace has been out the past couple games has made me very happy. It could mean some upcoming center eligibility, but it means that he is clearly the #1 backup frontcourt option, regardless of who goes down. In just 23 mpg Maxiell is averaging 1.7 blocks, which could sure help my squad. Of my nine regular starters, Andre Iguodala is second with 12 blocks, so you know I need the help. Maxiell’s a very active player and that Detroit team has had so much good fortune with injuries over the past few years that you have to think that things will start to even out. Plus, Rasheed Wallace is on BV’s team, so his injury should linger.

Spot #2 – Juan Carlos Navarro
Navarro was picked up after his first 28-point game a few weeks ago but was subsequently dropped when he followed that breakout game with an 8-point game and then a 9-minute, 2-point game. Still, anyone who can hit 8 3-pointers in a game is someone I could use on my squad. I snagged him after he re-entered the starting lineup against San Antonio and plugged him in for Saturday night’s game against the Wizards. High-scoring teams, Wizards can’t defend the three-point line, revenge game (of sorts) for Navarro? Hey, if my team is going to lose, at least my new acquisition knocked down 5 3s in the process. His role with Memphis isn’t very defined, and Darko Milicic should relegate him back to bench duties when he returns from his thumb injury. But reports on his injury have been vague and you get the feeling it could linger. La Bomba is a pure scorer and in three starts is averaging 19.3/3/4 with a steal and 2.7 3s. Even if Milicic comes back there’s a chance the Grizzlies could decide to keep him on the bench for a while and let Navarro continue to start.

Spot #3 – Tyrus Thomas
It continues to be extremely ugly for the Bulls, and a recent re-entry into the starting lineup has been equally ugly for Thomas. Foul trouble has been the main culprit    as he hasn’t been able to top 17 minutes in each of the last two contests due to excessive hacking. Scott Skiles seems to be taking all of his frustrations out on Thomas, moving him in and out of the lineup, calling him out publicly, etc. There’s a chance he could be buried on the bench again this week, but if the Bulls are going to turn things around this year, it’s hard to see them doing that without some big contributions from Thomas. He’s a disaster at the free throw line, but he blocked 10 shots and grabbed 6 steals in the first four games of the month, and those are numbers that can’t be ignored. If Skiles gets fired – still unlikely, but this team is 2-10 and just lost to the Knicks – a new coach could make Thomas a cornerstone.

Spot #4 – Sean Williams
You can see the kind of players I’m going for. Like I said, if one of them pans out big time, it could be the difference between fighting for the title and hanging out in the middle of the pack. Getting a big-time shot blocker who can grab steals for free is often the key to winning. Since I drafted 11^th I started the season with the #2 waiver claim, and I cashed in that chip to grab Williams, who was dropped after a pair of games in which he didn’t break 15 minutes. This came after two starts in which he posted averages of 16 and 6 with 1.5 steals and 2.5 blocks. To Lawrence Frank’s credit, the Nets won the two games in which his role was diminished and lost the two games in which the rookie started. But the competition is Malik Allen, Jason Collins, Jamaal Magloire, Josh Boone and an out-of-it Nenad Krstic. I’m usually anti-rookie, but that’s mostly on draft day. Williams is averaging 2.2 blocks in 20 minutes and is center eligible. He’s got to be owned in every league and even if the minutes aren’t there right now I have to think he’s a better use of a roster spot than just rotating between the likes of Morris Peterson, Marko Jaric and Jarrett Jack.

Hope everyone enjoyed the leftovers and games this weekend. Here’s a look at the NBA week 11/26-12/2:

Four games: Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LA Lakers, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Orlando, San Antonio, Seattle, Washington.

Three Games: Atlanta, Detroit, LA Clippers, Memphis, Miami, New Jersey, New Orleans, Sacramento, Toronto, Utah.

Two Games: Charlotte, Chicago.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Antonio Daniels, G:  With Gilbert knocked out of action for the winter, Antonio Daniels, AKA “Frozone” from the Incredibles, has posted 12/6/8 with 2 steals and nearly 1 trey per game as a starter.  Butler and Jamison will pick up most of the scoring slack left by Arenas, but Daniels will fill out the rest of the stat line nicely.  With four games on tap, Frozone is certainly a stronger play than PGs like Kirk Hinrich and Ray Felton who each only take the floor twice this week.

Louis Williams, G: In his last 4 games off the bench, the third-year reserve has averaged 19/3/4 with 2 threes and a theft in 30 mpg. In the meantime, starting PG, Andre Miller is averaging career lows in assists, steals, and FT% and is seeing the fewest minutes per game since his rookie year. If Williams can continue to get 30+ minutes a night, his scoring (especially from the arc) could make him more valuable than the veteran Miller. The Sixers tipoff four times this week, so Williams makes a solid start.

Marko Jaric, GF: The veteran Yugo has started 8 straight contests for the Wolves and appears to be reclaiming some fantasy value. In his last two starts, Jaric has posted 17/3/6 with a trey, 1.5 thefts and 2 blocks. Minnesota still holds a record of 1-10, so there is no reason to keep the veteran in their starting lineup for long. Sebastian Telfair is not a professional basketball player, so it looks like Jaric should be able to keep his starting spot until Randy Foye returns sometime next month. The T-Wolves have a full schedule this week, so get Marko in your lineups to maximize his usefulness.

Andrew Bynum, C: The 20-year-old big has started the last three games for the Lakers, and has 3 double doubles in his last 4 games. He’s still not regularly seeing over 30 minutes a game, but the youngster looks poised to average a double double this year as he continues to develop in his third season in the pros. This is the guy that the Lakers refused to let go in a deal for Jason Kidd. Bynum is a super talent who deserves more action on the court. He’ll get sufficient playing time this week as the Lakers play four times. Don’t hesitate to start him over the likes of Brad Miller and Mehmet Okur.

Jose Calderon, PG: We know all about this Spaniard’s passing skills. He dropped 19/3/14 today against Cleveland. He’s an automatic fantasy start as long as T.J. Ford is sidelined (which is quite often).

Please have a seat:

Stromile Swift, FC: Can we please put this to rest once and for all? Stro has never been a consistent fantasy factor at any point in his career. Cut your ties and don’t look back.

Ben Wallace, C: How ugly can it get for Big Ben? He’s posting 10-year lows in points, rebounds, shooting percentages, and blocks. The last time Wallace was this bad was when both he and Bill Clinton were in Washington.

Well, the big news of the day is that Gilbert Arenas is out with an injured knee for the next three months. As a Gilbert owner myself, I can sympathize with those of you out there who spent your first-round pick to acquire him. While there isn’t much you can do to replace his production, his injury as well as others around the league are opening up minutes of playing time that can lead to capable fantasy starters.

Washington Wizards: With Gilbert out, this means more shots to go around for the rest of the players on the team. This means Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are going to have more value, and Caron already exploded for 39 in their last game. If you can get them for value, now isn’t a bad time to do so. In addition, Antonio Daniels should be picked up in most leagues. Based on his ten games replacing Gilbert as a starter from this and last season, he should be good for 12.5/5.5/8.5 with a three and a steal and good free throw shooting. Not shabby at all for a PG3. Lastly, there has been an Andray Blatche sighting. I thought it would be a mistake that this kid slipped to the second round and in his third year he’s beginning to show why. In the last week he has averaged 13.8/7.3/2.5 with 1.3 steals, 2.5 blocks and even made a three, leading to a #8 ranking for the last week on the average player rater. Part of his increased role is due to Brendan Haywood going down with an injury, but based on his play, Blatche should continue to see the ~30 minutes he needs for fantasy value. I just dropped Yi Jinlian for him!

Toronto Raptors: Let’s talk about Jamario Moon. Wait, who is this guy? Just some career journeyman who’s landed in Toronto and is currently starting over the likes of major FA signing Jason Kapono. With Joey Graham and Jorge Garbajosa out, there is extra playing time at the swing spot and Moon could end up having value in a sort of this-year’s-Matt-Barnes type of way. Now, he’s isn’t playing up to that level yet, but he has shown the ability to have value. As a starter he’s averaging almost 1o points and 7 boards while being a member of the elusive 1/1/1 (steals/blocks/threes) club. That’s the kind of sneaky value that could propel him up the fantasy ratings. Also on the lookout, T.J. Ford has been hobbling around and whenever that happens you know that Jose Calderon is there and ready to put up serious numbers.

Sacramento Kings: These guys have been quite the mess this season. Kevin Martin has become a truly elite fantasy force while they have been dealing with multiple injuries and the Ron Artest suspension. The injury to Mike Bibby and the absence of Artest have helped to give Francisco Garcia and John Salmons value, but that may not last for too much longer. Beno Udrih, though temporarily sidelined, has played capably at PG and will continue to have moderate value for a few weeks. Overall, whoever plays in this lineup will have value, so check back on a daily basis for the status of Udrih and Artest and then plug them (or Salmons/Garcia) in accordingly. Now is not too early to consider making a buy-low trade for Mike Bibby or picking him up if he foolishly dropped to the waivers. This team has got to have the award of most-likely-to-be-blown-up by the end of the season, as either Artest or Bibby should be gone. I’m sure we’ll have more to talk about these players at that time.

The Others: Just like with Bibby, now may be a time to start looking at stashing Randy Foye away on your bench. He’s been dropped in the leagues that I play in, and if he holds up to his expected pre-season value, then he’ll be a steal of a pickup. With the number of minutes that Luol Deng plays, you’d think that someone would gain enough value to be mentioned. Instead, Scott Skiles does this, where no player gets more than 30 minutes in the game and thus no one has value. Skiles’s inconsistent rotations and playing time make me want to avoid all of the Chicago players regardless of health. In other news, it looks like some injured players such as Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady are set to return, which will lower the value of their respective replacements. I’m personally extending holiday wishes to Corey Maggette for a speedy recovery. Is it just me, or does it seem that this year has been especially plagued by players either struggling or going down with injuries?

It’s the first monthly installment of NUT20.  Remember, these rankings are based on a roto league without turnovers.  Let’s get right to it:

1. Kevin Garnett, BOS – He is loving Boston, and his owners are loving him.  How about that 56% from the field?  The steals will probably dip a bit, but KG has been everything that you could hope for.

2. Kobe Bryant, LAL – He’s reined in the 3pt shooting but has been blocking shots and rebounding at career-high levels.  You can question his personality all you want, but the consistent trade rumors haven’t bothered him like they’ve supposedly bothered the Bulls.

3. LeBron James, CLE – This is probably higher than he belongs, because the block numbers will come down, but he’s doing better than last November so we’ll give him a little bump.

4. Steve Nash, PHO – You think he’s feeling his shot right now?  He’s shooting an absolutely absurd 53% from the arc, and has hit every one of his 27 free throws so far this year.

5. Shawn Marion, PHO – He’ll come around from the line eventually, and that’s the only thing holding him back from being probably top-3 on the APR.  The rebounding numbers are nice to see, as well, and I can’t imagine he gets traded mid-season.

6. Yao Ming, HOU – He’s been in a slump since McGrady went down, which is definitely a concern, but it’s not like this is the first time he’s played without T-Mac.  As long as he stays healthy, he’s top-10.

7. Dwyane Wade, MIA – He’s back on the court and it’s not even Thanksgiving, so his owners have to be happy about that.  Once he gets into playing shape he’ll be Top-5.

8. Josh Smith, ATL – OK, I give.  I still don’t think he’s this good, and I think he’s an absolute sell-high right now, and I think he’ll be around 2.5 bpg at the end of the year, but right now (last night excepted) he’s on the top of his game.  And he’s not injured, which is more than I can say for some other guys on this list.

9.  Manu Ginobili, SAS – He can’t keep it up, right?  Be the floor isn’t that low either – the only things really out of sync with his typical stats are the steals and the threes, and that’s not too far out of the ordinary.  Congratulations if you drafted him in the 4th or 5th, looks like he’ll be a top-20 value this year.

10. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL – He’s just not shooting the ball well.  He’s a nice buy-low candidate, I think.  I can’t figure out whose FT% is more befuddling – his or Marion’s.  BUt both of them should be back to normal in a few weeks.

11. Amare Stoudemire, PHO – As a Stoudemire owner myself, I’m not writing anything here so I don’t jinx anything.

12. Gilbert Arenas, WAS – I know, everyone’s been frustrated by him, but the reason he’s this high on the list is because he’s only behind Kobe and Dwyane Wade when it comes to blowup potential.  It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him be the best player in the league in the second half.

13. Chris Paul, NO – His stats say he should be top ten, but his injury says he should be barely on this list.  Let’s put him here and hope for the best.

14. Allen Iverson, DEN – As long as he’s healthy, there’s not much to worry about with AI.  Right now he’s healthy, and that’s all I need to know to put him here.

15. Kevin Martin, SAC – Just keeps getting better.  He’s this decade’s Mitch Richmond, toiling away on a crappy Sacramento team.  I can’t wait until the Wizards trade an All-Star PF for him once he’s way past his prime.  But really, he seems like he’ll be a 2nd round pick for the next few years, no?

16. Rashard Lewis, ORL – He’s on fire from the field, and he’s having trouble getting his cheap boards with Dwight Howard eating up everything in sight, but it looks like he’ll provide solid 2nd-round value for his owners.

17. Jason Terry, DAL – He’s challenging Nash for the most ridiculous 3pt numbers at 51%.  All of his percentages sohuld come back to reality evenutally, but he’ll still be top-30 when it’s all said and done.

18. Marcus Camby, DEN – Is it possible he’s gotten better with age?  Maybe he’s just feeling healthier now than ever before.

19. Michael Redd, MIL – Doesn’t look like he’s doing anything out of the ordinary at first glance, but then you notice the career highs in boards and assists.  Is it possible he’s becoming less one dimensional?

20.  Andray Blatche, WAS – Just kidding.  Sort of.  Really, we’ll leave this to the commenters – who goes at 20?

Like a nagging Marcus Camby injury or a ridiculous Knicks trade, there are just some things that we can expect to happen at least once every year.  And one of those things is the Annual Stromile Swift Maybe This Is For Real Game.  And we just saw it last night, as Stro put up 24/5/4 with a steal and a block, filling in for Darko Milicic.  Before we get into this incarnation of the Swift Maybe This Is For Real Game, let’s look at previous incarnations:

11/17/06 – 21/7 with 2 blocks in 32 minutes, filling in for Pau Gasol
12/26/05 – 26/13 in 35 minutes, filling in for Yao Ming
11/20/04 – 20/12 with 2 steals and 2 blocks, filling in for Gasol
11/29/03 – 19/8 with 1 steal and 1 block, filling in for Lorenzen Wright.

And so on.

But this is pretty much common knowledge.  Swift has been jumping on and off waivers for pretty much his entire NBA career.  The question is … is there a right way to play this?  Is there a way to take Swift and make him valuable for your fantasy team?  Let’s go over a couple of strategies and see if we can figure out if they’ll work for Stro:

Option No. 1 – Pick up Swift immediately, and play him as long as the guy he’s replacing is out.

This is a pretty common strategy being used all the time – right now, for example, Beno Udrih is creating a ton of value while Mike Bibby is out, and Hilton Armstrong already got picked up in our league once Tyson Chandler went down.  But for Swift, it’s not particularly effective.  If you’ll notice from the list of games above, you might notice that all the guys he was filling in for missed significant time.  Last year, Gasol missed the first six weeks of the year, but in that time Swift had only one 20-point effort and only topped 7 boards twice.  Same sort of thing happened when Yao Ming missed 25 games in 05-06.  Not only that, but in the case of last year, the VERY NEXT game following his breakout, he put up just 3 points in 16 minutes.  So, that’s no good.

Option No. 2 – Keep Swift on your bench, wait for him to heat up, and play him right before he breaks out.

At first, this sounds impossible.  And it probably is.  But if you temper your expectations, it’s not totally ridiculous.  If you’re hoping to start Swift on a breakout game, I’ve got bad news for ya.  But if you’re just hoping to get some OK minutes out of a Center, well, this might not be a bad strategy.  While Swift’s big games come around just once or twice a year, he does put together strings of failry decent games.  Look at last March, for example, where he put up 15 and 13 with 3 steals in 4 blocks.  If you started him after that, you would have had three games with averages of 10 points, 4.6 boards and 2 blocks with nice percentages.  Not setting the world on fire, but I’ve seen Centers starting for fantasy teams late in the year with worse lines than that.  Of course, the next game after this mini-run he put up goose eggs.  The issue here is that it’s ridicuulous to hold onto a guy all year just for one of these little bursts, so I don’t think this strategy works either.

Option No. 3 – Grab him and trade him.
Maybe if you’re in a league with a lot of newbies this will work, but we’re going to assume here that you don’t want to get into any fights with your leaguemates.

Option No. 4 – Low Investment, Low Expectations, Quick Start, Quick Hook.
This is probably the best option and it’s not even that great of one.  Listen, we all know that Stro is impossible to manage.  But there is one strategy that I think could work, and it’s got 4 keys to it:

- Low Investment – Don’t drop anything of value to get him.
- Low Expectations – Only start him if you’ve got games to make up at Center or possibly Utility.
- Quick Start – Don’t wait around with him on your bench, he won’t do anything consistently so don’t wait for that.
- Quick Hook – Drop him at the first sign of trouble.

That’s it.  And, I guess, get lucky.  Because that’s the only way it’s really going to work.

All teams play either 3 or 4 games this coming week, so there is not much disparity in schedules. Here’s a look at NBA games for the week of Thanksgiving, 11/19-11/25:

Four games: Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Indiana, LA Lakers, Memphis, New Jersey, New Orleans, Orlando, San Antonio, Toronto, Washington.

Three Games: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, LA Clippers, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, Seattle, Utah.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Bonzi Wells, SG – One of the best rebounding guards in the NBA, the ten-year veteran has an opportunity do some damage this week. T-Mac was knocked out of Wednesday’s game with a strained elbow and Bonzi filled in nicely, posting 21 and 10 with 2 steals and 3 blocks.

Stephen Jackson, GF – Mr. Congeniality is set to return to the Warriors’ lineup this Sunday night after serving his 7-game suspension. Golden State is still seeking their first win of the season and will be glad to have their team captain back on the floor. As long as he can watch his mouth and avoid throwing any punches, S-Jax should return to posting the solid numbers that made him a mid-round draft selection.

Josh Childress, GF – Year in and year out you can land him in the final rounds of your fantasy draft or pick him up of waivers, and J-Chill always finds a way to contribute across the board. He broke out of his early season slumber with 23 points on 9 for 12 shooting Wednesday night, and could see more minutes these next few games with Josh Smith banged up. The Hawks tip-off three times this week and Childress makes a decent start, especially if you need to fill a hole in your lineup.

J.R. Smith, SG – Smith has not topped 25 minutes in a game this season, yet he’s still managed to hit 2 treys a night. He appears to have supplanted Linas Kleiza as the Nuggets’ sharpshooter du jour. With four games on tap, you can expect to garner about 10 threes from J.R. this week.

Speaking of sharpshooters, you may want to consider…
Morris Peterson, GF – Scored 27 points (6 for 9 from the arc) Wednesday night.
Keith Bogans, SG – Currently fifth in the league with 23 three-pointers made (ahead of Ray Allen and Steve Nash).
Anthony Parker, GF – In his last three games Parker is averaging 18/4/2 with 3 treys. Hot hand is a smart play for four games this week.

Please have a seat:

Sebastian Telfair, PG – This guy’s career is going nowhere fast. We’re eagerly awaiting Randy Foye’s return to the T-Wolves’ lineup.

Seattle Point Guards – Luke Ridnour, Delonte West, and Earl Watson can all be solid fantasy contributors when they get starter’s minutes, however they are currently averaging 15, 20, and 26 mpg respectively. Look elsewhere for the time being.

 

DM: We were going to take a stab at discussing the Knicks situation today, but with the details changing every minute we figured that what we came up with might be immediately irrelevant. So how about taking a look at one of the teams that can give the Knicks a run for suckiness, at least on the court: the Seattle Sonics. The team was 0-8 until last night, although only two of those losses have been blowouts, so it’s not like they are playing particularly awful. But still, 0-8 is 0-8. A crappy team playing in the Northwest means that they will be way off most fantasy players’ radar, so there might be some hidden value to be found in there. Let’s start with the point guard situation, which is a total mess. Earl Watson was the starter, but was wholly ineffective, so then Luke Ridnour got the call after being unheard of for the first few games, but he’s been awful and now he’s hurt. Delonte West hasn’t started any games but has had the most consistent PT, but hasn’t done much with it. Is the situation going to be this messy all year or will one of them be able to take the job and run with it?

BV: I think the real question is, does it even matter? Each one of the guys you mentioned has struggled to have any real serious fantasy value unless they see over thirty minutes, and even then, it’s borderline. Ridnour peaked about three years ago, and even then he was only PG2 material. Watson’s main role has been to take away value from other players and put up just enough assists that he bounces on and off the waiver wire all year long. If I had to pick one guy to have value, it would be Delonte West, if only because he can occasionally slide over to the 2 spot. The problem is, there’s not much room there either, particularly if Kevin Durant continues to play in the backcourt. But West is also a guy with sneaky value – he was 87 on the APR last year, and he does a little bit of everything. But that was in 32mpg. What is he going to be able to do with only 25 or so … if he even gets that?

DM: Well, people are always on the lookout for an extra PG and all three players have proven that given the opportunity they can be worthy of starting in a 12-team league. I agree that West has the most upside given his well-rounded game and the fact that the new regime in Seattle brought him in, whereas that isn’t the case with Ridnour and Watson. I also get the feeling that West just might not be someone they are comfortable with as a starting PG. It’s still a situation to keep an eye on, but don’t expect any resolution soon. Have you noticed what Jeff Green’s been doing the past few games? He’s getting just over 25 mpg and has averaged 16 and 6.3 with a few steals and blocks. He’s also getting to the line pretty regularly and is shooting 48% on the very young season so far. It doesn’t seem like he will be hitting any 3s this year but he has those long arms that could help him rack up some steals and blocks. Think he’ll be able to crack the starting lineup at any point this season? Damien Wilkins has been playing some decent ball, but he’s still Damien Wilkins.

BV: Oh, if one thing’s for sure, it’s that Damien Wilkins is not going to take anyone’s job away from them. After all, like you said, this team is 0-8 so it’s not like they’re going to keep playing Wilkins because he’s helping them win. He’s seen his minutes slowly start to drop already, and then on Tuesday he fell to just 17 minutes. He’ll land on the waiver wires over the next few weeks and might make an emergence once or twice but I can’t imagine he’s a big part of their puzzle. Green, on the other hand, is the future. He was essentially the big prize that they got in return for Ray Allen, so they obviously expect big things. The only question is why they’re being so cautious with him, despite the fact that he’s 2 years older than Durant who’s being given all the minutes he can handle. But yes, absolutely, he is worth owning right now. Let me give you a little Player A / Player B:

Player A: 6-9, 235 lbs, 10.6/4.8/0.4 with 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, in 21 mpg
Player B: 6-7, 228 lbs, 10.2/6.5/1.4 with 0.8 steals, 1.0 blocks, in 24 mpg

Both players played mostly the 3 in college, with even a little 2 sprinkled in, and came out after their junior years, but projected as combo forwards in the pros. Player A is obviously Green. Can you guess who player B is? Hint: He’s now very, very good.

DM: Sorry, I don’t really see Green as the next Shawn Marion. And the Scottie Pippen comparisons are pretty tough to live up to as well. But I agree that instead of wasting time on some of those PGs we were talking about before, you should just pick up Green and stash him away. Come January or February, you’ll be happy about that. And what about Durant? Remember how I said I wouldn’t be touching him this year? I feel pretty good about that call right now. Sure, he’s scoring, but 38% on 20 shots per game is brutal, especially in roto leagues. The 3s and sheer number of minutes are definitely helping his value, but I said Richard Hamilton would end up the more valuable fantasy player this year and I’ll stand by that. What about in the middle? Think Robert Swift can have some second half value? I really like his ability to get blocks, but he’s clearly not even close to being all the way back from his knee surgery yet. I think the Sonics like him, but I think that his best case scenario at this point might be the next Joel Przybilla.

BV: I don’t think you’d even have to wait until January for Green to start paying benefits. We’ll see. But the middle…ugh. You think the PG situation is a disaster on this team? We haven’t even gotten to the worst part! Not only are all these guys – Swift, Collison, Petro, Thomas - all guys that need 30+ minutes to even be a little valuable, but there are more of them competing for minutes than there are at PG. I’m not including Chris Wilcox on this list – he’s a fine C3 and he’ll get his 30 mpg – but all of the rest of them are too risky to own. Robert Swift definitely has the highest upside, but he’s in and out of the lineup so often that you can’t even justify putting him on your bench. Nick Collison is actually starting in our league right now, but he maxes out as a utility guy at best, and I think I would leave him on the waiver wire unless I’m totally desperate for a C. Then there’s Petro, who’s hardly seeing any time, but they just picked up the option on his contract. I would probably rank them Collison, Swift (for upside), Thomas, Petro … but would you be willing to own any of these guys?

DM: Collison’s playing some fine ball right now, mid-70s on most raters, mainly because he’s getting an inordinate amount of steals. But he’s one of those guys who will be on and off the free agent list all year as he goes in and out of the lineup. He’s solid NBA rotation guy but not much more. He has some good games, you pick him up and start him, then he gets two fouls in three minutes (he does this a lot) and has a crappy game. He’s kind of like the white Eddy Curry in his perpetual waiver wireness. And no, I wouldn’t be willing to bet on any of those guys. And we haven’t talked about your favorite preseason sleeper Wally Szczerbiak. Looks like except for that one game he hasn’t really woken up yet, huh? It will be interesting to see what happens when some injuries start to hit this team. Right now it’s really messy, but they still have the ability to score lots of points so there could be value in there somewhere.

BV: Yes, I was hoping not to bring up Wally World, thank you very much. But he did have that one awesome game. I’m not ready to count him totally out just yet, but it looks like it’ll take an injury or a change of attitude from the organization in order for that to happen. The ability is certainly there, as we saw from his one 30+ point explosion, but the minutes just aren’t. I guess I figured he would be getting Damien Wilkins’ minutes…and he still might.