BV: Well, that didn’t take long. Just three games into the season, Nate McMillian is fed up with his Portland Trail Blazers, and he’s not the only one - fantasy owners of any Blazer not named Aldridge, Roy, or Webster have been pretty disappointed as well. But, fear not! McMillian has already shaken things up, shoving FBB favorite Steve Blake and FBB …um…topic of discussion Channing Frye into the starting lineup. Any time there’s a change in the starting spot at PG or C, fantasy basketball players are interested. But wait, there’s more! Perennial breakout candidate Travis Outlaw has slowly been getting more PT, and we’ve seen Joel Przybilla have value without starting before. So let’s start with this, DM - After Aldridge, Roy and Webster, who’s got the most fantasy value on the Blazers?
DM: Wait, that’s a trick question, isn’t it? We could probably have this discussion every month or so and the answer will be different. But the key to winning is often finding those players ready to go on a hot streak for a month and taking advantage. Right now I’ll say it’s the all-time FBB fave, and the newest member of my fantasy team, Steve Blake. McMillian decided three games of nothing was enough from Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez, despite his nice rate numbers, has never really seemed to win over the staff in Portland. The Blazers still need all the help they can get when it comes to getting easy baskets and our boy Stevie can make that happen. He’ll get abused on the defensive end by bigger guards, but he’s a legit playmaker that can take some pressure off Roy and he’s turned out to be a pretty reliable long-range threat, checking in at 37% for his career. Maybe the benching will motivate Jack, but he’s always been a backup PG masquerading as a starter. Blake should have a chance to run with this job, and if he can play around 30 mpg, that could be enough for him to give you around 6 apg and 1.5 3pg, which makes for a fine PG3 in deep leagues.
BV: Well, I think there are two things wrong with that answer. Number one, I don’t think Blake will get his 30 mpg. Not only is Jack still going to see significant time at the point, but Sergio Rodriguez will still - despite his lack of winning over coaches - see maybe 5 mpg as well, and even Taurean Green could potentially see a little time. So I think Blake is much more likely to come in around 25 mpg at best - it’s not like he’s going to be able to slide to the 2 guard at all. Secondly, I don’t know why you think he’ll knock down 1.5 3pg. Even last year in Denver, when he was filling the “hang around on the outside and wait for AI to give you the ball for a wide-open three,” he only connected on one per game - in 33 mpg! He’s going to be the at-best 3rd or 4th option on the floor offensively for the Blazers, and I wouldn’t expect him to knock down any more than the 1 or so he’s maxed out at over his career.
My pick - though it’s the best of a bad bunch - is actually Przybilla, because he’s the most likely to do the most with the least amount of PT, and because he’s got the least competition for his job. I can see the PG spot shifting around a bunch this year, but as far as bigs go, the Blazers only have three guys for the 4 and 5 - Przybilla, Frye, and Aldridge. Unless they go small a whole lot with Outlaw or James Jones at the 4, or for some ungodly reason give Raef LaFrentz some PT, Przybilla will almost have to play 20 mpg. That’s generally been enough for him to contribute about 7 boards and 2 blocks - and isn’t that better than the maybe 1 three and 6 assists Blake will get you?
DM: It was actually Przybilla who I dropped to pick up Blake. I like Joel, and I don’t think the Blazers can last long with a frontline of Aldridge and Channing Frye, but unless you really need blocks — and granted, that’s plenty of teams — he just doesn’t do all that much for you. Like you said, he could be good for 7 boards and 2 blocks, which is what he gave you in both 04-05 and 05-06, his two best seasons. He’s never averaged more than 26 mpg and it’s hard to see that changing, and he’s also incredibly injury prone. I know people get desperate for a second center, but I decided to hold onto Ike Diogu instead, just because he might be able to score some points and actually do some damage in the case of some injuries. (Although it might take multiple injuries for that to happen.) Przybilla makes for a good guy to keep around on your bench as a backup center, but isn’t someone you should feel tied to.
As for Frye, that rookie season with the Knicks seems like a decade ago, doesn’t it? He can’t possibly hope to compete with even most PF, let alone centers. His offensive game is almost completely based on 18-foot jumpers. I guess it just so happened that lots of those jumpers went down during his first season. He’s got youth on his side and the Blazers would surely like to see if he can give them some offense, but there seem to be lots of questions there.
BV: I think we can agree that Frye is generally not worth your time. If you’re not gonna rebound, and you’re not gonna block shots, you’d better hit a hell of a lot of those 18-footers, and that’s just not happening for him. I’ll put Jack on top of Frye just because he’s got a better chance to have value down the line, I think. He can also play the 2 guard in pinch. So if we’ve got Przybilla and Blake at the top of our list, and Jack then Frye at the bottom, where does this leave everyone’s favorite waiver wirer, Travis Outlaw? I’ll say … below Jack. Above Frye. Which is more an indictment of Frye than praise of Outlaw. This is Outlaw’s FIFTH year in the league, believe it or not, so how much will he really improve at this point? But he does have an ability to help in the defensive categories, so I’ll give him a little credit there. Przybilla, Blake, Jack, Outlaw, Frye. That’s my list.
DM: Can I talk about Martell Webster for a second? He looks like a nice little gem of a free agent pickup right now but don’t get too comfortable the prospect of him being an all-year fantasy starter. His shot is falling over the first week, but unless he can keep knocking down 2 3pg, he’s not all that special. Well, if he keeps getting 35 mpg then he should accumulate enough other stats to make him worthwhile, but if that long ball isn’t falling, it’s hard to see any reason to keep him out there that long. Still, he has youth on his side, but I’m thinking that Morris Peterson is his upside. As for Travis Outlaw, he’s always had that potential to be a fantasy asset thanks to his long arms which help him get steals and blocks, although he’s yet to get any of either so far this year. He’s got plenty of athletic ability but he just doesn’t seem like he can score. He needs to be starting and playing big minutes to put up good numbers in other categories to offset his lack of scoring. So yeah, let’s put him below Jack, who will most likely regain the starting PG job at some point. Let’s not forget, he was the #75 player in the game last year, so he’s got proven ability to be a solid, bottom of the roster fantasy type.
15 Responses to “Who Would Ya? Blazer Edition”
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November 7th, 2007 at 8:08 am
Just a few comments, Josh McRoberts is just coming back from injury, and he could see a bit of timeat PF/C as well for Portland. Nate McMillan loves Taureen Green as well. Overall, last year I avoided the Blazers and NY due to inconsistencies which players getting PT, and outside of Roy, Aldridge and Webster, I can’t advocate picking other Blazers up right now. Outlaw has great ability to get steals and blocks, and ended last year in a tear, but we’ll see if he can continue that trend.
Also, concerning Martell Webster, he’s only 20 years old and I think Morris Peterson is too low of a ceiling for him. This year he seems to have much more confidence and I think he could be a legit third option (and long range specialist) on a good Blazers team in the future. What can I say…it’s my team.
November 7th, 2007 at 8:16 am
I’ll definitely go with the Blazers expert here, although I wish Webster would at least try to do something besides sit in the corner and take 3s. I’ll watch more of them in the coming weeks. I think McRoberts could end up being more valuable to them than Frye if he can adjust to the speed of the NBA game. His skill set might actually work better in the pros since he’s not really the pure go-to scorer that Duke needed/wanted him to be.
November 7th, 2007 at 9:36 am
Living in Copenhagen right now, I haven’t been able to watch any Blazers pre-season or regular season games, but what I witnessed in the summer league games and what I have heard from other Blazer fans is that Webster is actually looking for his own shot and doing more than just spotting up for 3’s. Everyone has been very impressed, to the point of expanding our “core three” of Roy, Oden and Alridge to a “core four”, needing just a PG left (Derrick Rose anyone?).
As for McRoberts…we’ll see, but he’s a pretty good passer and could work well in the high post distributing the ball.
November 7th, 2007 at 9:44 am
who would you pick up out of the 3 ? francisco garica, bonzi wells or Yi Jianlian ?
November 7th, 2007 at 4:22 pm
Tone, no way to answer that without knowing your team’s needs as those are three wildly different players in three very different situations. That said, personally I like Yi the best because of his block skills and offensive upside. Garcia looks pretty good but I have to think his window of usefulness is limited with the imminent returns of Ron Ron and then Bibby, so I’d use him as more of a fill-in. If he were PG-eligible in Yahoo! I’d value him a lot higher. Bonzi is useful if you’re short on boards or steals (he has always provided a lot of rebounds from a guard spot), but he’s fragile, he’s not a great 3-point shooter, he’s battling to get minutes, and he’s likely to hurt your percentages. I’m not a fan.
November 7th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
Usually I like players who are starting, and it appears that Milwaukee will stick with Yi through his struggles, so that is a good sign. Andy makes good points. I like Garcia’s game right now, but not once he is behind Artest and then Bibby comes back for minutes. But he’s someone to always have your eye on for later in the season.
As for Wells, the same situation applies. However, if either Battier or McGrady gets hurt for an extended period of time, he is a must grab. Granted, McGrady seems to be healthier this year, but he has a history of missing time, in which case Wells would be the clear replacement starter in which case he’ll put up very good numbers.
November 7th, 2007 at 9:25 pm
Anyone have any thoughts on Keith Bogans? He’s getting PT, hitting 3s…would he be worth picking up for Mo-Pete?
Cassell was huge last night…is he worth a pickup, or will he be too inconsistent?
November 8th, 2007 at 1:01 am
I agree with the above comments. Yi is the guy. He’s come out of the gate with pretty good stats especially on the defensive end and looks locked into 25-30 min on that squad.
Think all the experts were a little too hard on him to begin with. Does anyone feel there’s an anti-chinese bias when it comes to nba players. All the things that were said about Yi were said about Yao too. Albeit there is a general anti-foreign bias with nba analysts, but still I think it’s a little bit stronger with Asian players. There are examples of Euro players that are heavily hated upon pre draft, but there are also a lot that are held in high regard. Luis Scola would be the latest.
November 8th, 2007 at 1:20 am
Well one of the issues with foreign players is how well will they adjust to the league in terms of physical play and speed of the game. Not to mention the language barrier. The competition overseas simply isn’t usually as good of training groups as US college is…or at least the competition level is more of an unknown.
Some players have been able to come in and contribute immediately. The problem is when those young Euro players are drafted in the lottery and expected to perform quickly. Not only are they young, but they have several other disadvantages too. But yeah, of course they’ll be biases. Americans still make up most of the league, but more international players continue to creep in every year.
November 8th, 2007 at 5:41 am
i hear that, but i think with the asian players it’s more of a perception of asian people. i’m not talking about a general foreign bias because that is out there of course. i’m saying people that come out of asia suffer from more of a bias. i guess it’s hard to gauge because of the low numbers coming out of there.
but, i would wager that every highly rated player coming out of china in the next few years the exact same criticisms will be leveled at them. perhaps a lack of association with asians and sports type bias is more what i’m thinking of.
November 8th, 2007 at 5:45 am
it’s just odd that every analyst thought yi would be an automatic bust except for the talent scouts
same with yao
November 8th, 2007 at 7:13 am
i think another reason people were down on yi was that nobody believed that he was actually his listed age. the difference between 19 and 23 years old in the NBA is huge.
as for bogans, i actually picked the dude up last night since i had a roster spot to play with when ike diogu went down. i probably already missed his hot streak, but i’m weak in 3s, the magic are using a short rotation, bogans is averaging about 38 mpg over the last few and the team is winning, so he might have some short-term value. he’s never been anywhere near this good, but he could be one of those guys who just decides to shoot tons of 3s all year, giving him some value. hard to see trevor ariza and, to a lesser extent, jj redick remaining so invisible all year though.
November 8th, 2007 at 10:17 am
Is Cassell for real? One would suspect that he is, seeing that he had an off year last year, and that is the pattern for his career.
But, 35 points and 8 assists certainly makes him fantasy relevant, don’t you think?
November 8th, 2007 at 5:43 pm
sam will have games like this, but i don’t think plantar fascitis goes away at his age.