Sure, a lot of guys aren’t playing up to snuff just yet. And yes, most of them are on my fantasy team. Some of the issues are obvious - like injuries for Amare Stoudemire and Gilbert Arenas, or age for Shaquille O’Neal and Ben Wallace, or new climates like Jason Richardson. But some guys are really struggling and it’s hard to figure out why - so let’s take two of them and try and figure out what’s wrong.
Kirk Hinrich
Hinrich is not the only Bull to struggle, but he’s probably the biggest underperformer as well as the most confusing. He’s not just struggling with his shot, but also with his defense. He’s gotten torn apart by Cuttino Mobley, fouled out against Jason Kidd and the Nets, and while his steals numbers are good on the season, he’s logged zero in four of the six games he’s played so far. But let’s not beat around the bush - the problem for Hinrich is his shot, more than anything else. He’s putting up bricks to the tune of 15% from the arc and 31.8% overall. So what’s the problem?
Well, if you ask me, the problem is … everyone else. Listen, Kirk Hinrich is one of the most reliable players you’ll find in the NBA. No, he’s not a fantastic shooter, but he should be hitting around 36% of his threes and 41% of his shots in general. The thing is, he’s not a guy who creates his own shot, so he relies on defenders worrying about the real scorers on the floot like Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, allowing Kirk to spot up and get open shots. But when Deng and Gordon are struggling like they are now, they aren’t pulling defenders away from Hinrich, which means he’s not getting the open space he needs to hit his shots.
Need proof it’s not his shot that’s the problem? How about the 91% he’s shooting from the stripe? Or, and I know we all hate preseason stats, but look at how on-fire he was during the preseason (13-27 from the arc). Those aren’t the numbers of someone dealing with a Now, I know it’s easy to blame everyone else, but that’s really the only thing that makes sense. At least, as a Hinrich owner myself, I certainly hope so.
Gerald Wallace
Wallace, to me, is more of a concern than Hinrich, because the makeup of his team has changed pretty dramatically. Let’s look at this category by category:
Rebounds - Last year, Wallace posted 7.2 rpg, which was pretty much in line with his 05-06 numbers. BUt look at who he was on the court with! Aside from Emeka Okafor, the players seeing the most time on the floor with Wallace were Raymond Felton, Matt Carroll, Adam Morrison, Brevin Knight, and Derek Anderson. None of them grabbed more than 3 boards per game. Wallace and Okafor were pretty much the only two rebounding options on the court. (Yes, Sean May is a decent rebounder, but for the most part when he was on the floor, Wallace or Okafor was not). The point is, now Jason Richardson is on the floor, and while he’s not an incredible rebounder, he’s certainly better on the class than, say, Adam Morrison. So now, there’s a third rebounder on the floor, and that means fewer boards for Wallace. I wouldn’t expect this to improve.
Shooting - The shooting should improve, but maybe not to his previous levels if he’s going to keep shooting threes as much as he has. But even that’s not a huge deal - maybe it’s just dealing with a new presence on othe floor? Either way, this isn’t a major concern.
Blocks - OK, let’s talk about this for a minute. Some stats are just back and forth, and Gerald Wallace’s blocks are one of them. Last November, he had only 0.3 bpg. But in March, he had 1.5. Two years ago he averaged over 2 bpg, last year was just 1.0. It’s not just Wallace - blocks and steals are like this for a lot of guys who haven’t established their value over 4-5 years. The point is, you’re never going to be sure of what you’re going to get from Wallace in blocks. But to expect the over 2 bpg that he got 2 years ago may be a bit optimistic.
All in all, Wallace may struggle to justify the third round pick many folks spent on him, but he should be able to maintain solid 4th or 5th round value by the time it’s all said and done.