Our former hero and new arch nemesis John Hollinger did a column yesterday on early surprises and disappointments. We all know that buy low/sell high works better in theory and in leagues with lots of rookies, and that in more serious leagues you have to proceed with more nuance. That’s why we’ve always liked the “buy fake high” strategy of pouncing on a player who some owners might think is a sell high candidate, but is really a player who should stay at that level the rest of the season. So today here are some guys mentioned in Hollinger’s column, and some advice on whether to actually sell high or buy fake high.
Kevin Martin – Buy Fake High
Coming into the season there were likely plenty of folks who were skeptical about Martin repeating his success of 06-07. That number is rapidly dwindling. The owner in your league who spent a likely fourth round pick on Martin might realize he’s the real deal, but there’s a decent chance that Martin maintains his top 20 status right now, especially if he stays healthy throughout the season. Unlike bit players who get big contracts and sometimes suffer a down season, Martin is a franchise player, so everything the team does will be built around him. His skills are for real and I see a few guys drafted ahead of him in my league – Caron Butler, Michael Redd, Joe Johnson, for example – that I’d deal for Martin.
Richard Jefferson – Buy Fake High
Going into my draft this year there was only one player that I was positive would be on my team at the end of that night, and that was Jefferson. He was injured and ineffective last year, so much that even on the APR he was out of the top 100, so I knew he’d slip plenty. I grabbed him in the 8th round expecting solid 4th/5th round value, certainly not the late-first round value he’s provided so far. If you’ve seen him play – and I’ve stomached a few Nets games to watch him (you’d think that with Kidd and Carter the Nets would be more fun to watch, but they are just the worst) – you know that he’s slashing with authority and playing like the guy who finished in the top 35 back in 05-06.
Jason Terry – Sell High
Once again, Terry was a draft day steal. He always lasts two rounds longer than he should, and with the news that he would be coming off the bench he probably slipped even more. So what does he do? Comes out on fire and begins the season as a top 10 player. The only reason I’d advise selling high on Terry is because he’s thrived so much in his bench role that he’s extremely unlikely to regain his starting role any time soon. He’s only averaging two fewer minutes per game compared to last year, but there’s simply no way he can maintain his current efficiency, so if you can get someone to give you a solid 3rd/4th rounder for him, it’s a good deal to make.
Marvin Williams – Sell High
It’s nice to see Williams playing well, but I’m still not sold on his abilities. He’s getting better shots and being more aggressive, getting to the line more than ever, but he’s shooting 56% on the young season, compared to 43% last season. That’s not going to last. He’s never shown much ability to get steals, blocks or 3s, he’s not a monster on the boards and he’s a clear #3 option on his team behind Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. So once that FG% starts to creep down to the 40s, his value will sink. Right now he’s playing around 5th/6th round value, but someone in your league might think this is a breakout season and be willing to pay a higher price. If that’s the case, I’d deal.
Chris Kaman – Sell High
You probably aren’t going to move Kaman because centers are very valuable and he’s playing out of his mind right now and with Elton Brand on the shelf for at least a few more months, he’ll have every chance to keep up this torrid pace. But he’s still Chris Kaman. I’m not saying that he can’t be a solid 15/10 guy, but 19/14 are KG numbers and he’s not KG. There is always someone desperate for a center and if you stockpiled centers, like Jeremy suggested last week, you could be in great position to snag a legit stud by dealing Kaman right now. Again, only think about a deal if you have two other strong centers, but if someone told you two weeks ago that you could get, say, Josh Howard, for Chris Kaman, you’d make that deal, right?