One of our favorite little tricks here is the ‘buy fake high’ or the ’sell fake low,’ where basically you get some other owner to think they’re buying low or selling high when really, the player is as good/as bad as he’s performing.  Confused?  Tough.  Anyhow, a couple weeks ago DM went over some Buy Fake High candidates  - now let’s go over some Sell Fake Low’s.

Brad Miller - OK, now I’ve got Brad Miller on my fantasy team, and while my team is absolutely stuffed to the gills with disappointments, Miller has been … noticeable.  And yes, I wrote this before his good game last night, but whatever.  His FG% is easily the lowest of his career, and the assists just aren’t there, either.  What’s worse, his #109 on the APR is artificially high - there’s no way he keeps up his 1.3 bpg or his 89% from the stripe.  Now, you could see a couple of owners thinking about buying low on Miller thinking that he’ll eventually start hitting shots and getting assists.  And Miller does have some built-in minimal value as a starting center that plays over 30 mpg. But I don’t see it happening, and the main reason for that is the system.  Under Rick Adelman, Sacramento centers like Miller and Vlade Divac handled the ball like guards in the post, looking to make the extra pass and posting great assists numbers for their position.  Miller thrived in a situation like that, even when he was hurt.  But take Miller out of Adelman’s system and he’s just not the same guy.  In his previous stops in Charlotte, Chicago and Indiana, he never averaged more than 2.6 apg.   Between the new system, the age, and the injury risk, I’d say that if you’ve got a couple extra C’s and you can get a mid-round value for Miller, go ahead and do it.

Chris Bosh - This one might surprise you, but I think Bosh has one of the most inflated values of anyone in fantasy basketball.  He’s always treated like an early second-round pick, but look at his APR’s the last few years: two years ago he was 21, last year he was at 27, and right now he’s at 39.  Yes he’s only 23, but this is his 5th year in the league, and he’s dealing with plantar fascitis, so it’s not like he’s a lock to improve despite his age.  The fact of the matter is that the Raptors are a better team when they are moving the ball around and everyone is getting their shots - they’ve currently got 8 guys averaging over 8 ppg.  What might be best for the Raptors isn’t necessarily what’s best for Bosh owners, and that looks to be the case here.  Other owners will look at his deflated numbers and point to his minutes just being down, but I look at them and see a guy who’s probably still bothered by his foot issues and is better off taking a bit of a lesser role in his offense.  If you can find an owner who saw his recent outburst and thinks that Bosh may be a first-round value, I’d say make that move.

Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge - Now, I’m not suggesting that Durant and Aldridge have been playing poorly or even dissapointing owners this year.  Aldridge is a solid 6th round value on the APR at 67 and Durant is almost right there with him at 73.  And you know what?  If they end up in those same spots at the end of the year, that’s solid.  But I think that some owners out there expected more - way more.  And while a lot of owners overpaid for these guys with fourth and even third round picks, a lot of other owners were itching to grab him just a few picks later.  Now that the  youngsters haven’t necessarily reached their overhyped expactations, some might be preying on them, thinking that there will be some major improvement over the next few months.  And you know what?  There might be.  But it’s not going to be drastic.  Durant might improve his shot a bit, but remember that it took LeBron a full year of shooting 41% before he eventually settled into the high-40’s in his sophomore season.  And with the amount that he’s turning the ball over, don’t expect a jump in assists anytime soon.  And Aldridge, well, what’s wrong with what he’s doing now?  Sure he’s not blocking shots as we thought he might, but that’s OK.  He’s also shooting absurdly well for a guy who’s the only low-post threat on his team and thus gets the best big man defending him each game.  Despite that, some owners are likely still salivating at the upside of these guys - and as we always say here at FBB, BEWARE UPSIDE.  If you can get 4th round value for either of these guys, go for it.