BV:  We’ve spilled plenty of virtual ink on at least one sophomore NBA player this year, LaMarcus Aldridge.  But what about the other second-year guys?  Have they shown the improvement we would have liked to see over their rookie year?  Let’s start with one of Aldridge’s teammates out in Portland, Brandon Roy.  Roy was one of the few rooks to have any real value last year, and ended up at a very respectable 59 on the APR.  Considering it was only his rookie year, and the fact that he was going to step in to a bigger role in the offense, it was reasonable to expect him to pump up those numbers a bit and land with an APR somewhere in the 40’s.  But instead, he’s dropped down to 70!  A closer look at his game log shows that he’s definitely got the talent, but every so often he has a game that is just awful, like his 4-18, 12/2/1 night on Monday against Portland.  What’s more, his rebounding and FT% have curiously taken a hit.  DM, is there any cause for concern here - could he actually be a buy-low?

DM: I’m not worried about Roy, at least talent-wise. I’d still like to see him prove that he can play a full season without being injured, though. He might be suffering a bit from the loss of Zach Randolph, as Aldridge is the only other player on the Blazers that defenses need to pay any sort of special attention to. But he’s improved his outside game and continues to be an excellent playmaker. I’d like to see him get to the line a bit more — 4.8 attempts in 38 mpg is a bit too passive — but he’s going to be a main offensive threat on the Blazers for years to come, ensuring solid fantasy value. I still see him as a solid 4th round value. I’ve been very impressed with Ronnie Brewer in Utah. He’s thieving like a maniac, racking up 2.6 spg which puts him in the top 50 so far, but even when that number naturally comes down, he should still be a valuable roster filler for fantasy squads. His upside is clearly limited because of his status as the fifth option on Utah, as evidenced by his low 8.7 FGA per game, but he’s consistently around the 30 mpg mark and is seeing crunch time action over Matt Harpring, which wasn’t happening a year ago. He has the makings of a Tayshaun Prince-type, the kind of guy you don’t target, but grab when he falls to you and enjoy the production from your 9th or 10th spot.

BV: Exactly right on Brewer.  If you look at the ESPN player rater you’ll see that while Brewer derives nearly all of his fantasy value from his steals (+2.87 on their system), even if those cut in half he’ll be around the 50’s or 60’s overall.  That’s fantastic from the 9th or 10th spot, and actually acceptable from the 5th or 6th spot. And I don’t mind the fact that he’s taking only 8.7 FGA, because he’s taking high-quality shots - his 52% from the field is fantastic, and he’s getting to the line 4.6 times per game, which is fantastic compared to the numbers you just showed us from Roy.  Still, he’s got to perform like this - or close to it - for at least another month or so before I’m going to be a believer.  The other big breakout that we’ve seen so far this year from the sophs has to be Rudy Gay.  Not just from an NBA standpoint - he’s become the clear #2 on that team behind Pau Gasol - but from a fantasy standpoint, where he looks to be a guy that will provide the coveted Triple-One (one 3, one steal, one block per game).  When it’s all said and done, doesn’t he have a great chance to be at the top of this class?

DM: Rudy Gay has been extremely impressive lately and looks to be establishing himself as the team’s #1 option. Hell, he’s outscoring Gasol by half a point on the year so far. Gay has drastically improved his jump shot and either he’s falling in love with the 3 or Iavaroni is telling to fall in love with the 3, but whatever the reason, he’s attempting more per game than Mike Miller, noted long-range specialist. The Grizz have plenty of firepower and love to play bombs away, so this is a great sign for his fantasy value. He looked might impressive against the Wizards a few nights ago, hitting plenty of tough shots and was very active on the offensive boards. Consistency still isn’t his strong suit, but he’s reached double digit scoring in all but two games this year and he is a perfect fit for this Grizzlies team. I still think that the Blazer duo might be better just because they are the unquestioned leaders of their team, but Gay is close. How about Shawne Williams on the Pacers? His outside touch is for real, and he got the start for Jim O’Brien’s squad last night. If (haha, if) Jermaine O’Neal misses significant time, Williams could benefit greatly, especially in that new up-tempo offense the Pacers are running. I still haven’t seen enough of him to know for sure, but he could very well be a solid contributor as long as he stays out of off-court troubles, of course.

BV:  Well, if Shawne Williams is EVER going to have value, it’s now.  He’s got loads of PT in front of him and he’s in a situation where he’s more than welcome to chuck threes all night long.  But the fact is, he doesn’t rebound (other than last night), can’t shoot from the stripe, and doesn’t contribute anything defensively.  So he’s going to have to get a LOT of value from those threes.  He sorta seems like a poor man’s Mickael Pietrus, and that doesn’t sound too appetizing.

So we’ve talked a bunch about guys who have looked pretty good … let’s figure out who’s on the other end of the spectrum.  Has there been a bigger sophomore slumper than Tyrus Thomas?  He’s so explosive but just can’t seem to figure out when and where is the best place to explode.  I can’t decide if this is a case of the rest of his team dragging him down (thank you very much, Kirk Hinrich), or if he’s just not as good as we thought, or if he needs some more time to develop?

DM: I was watching the Bulls/Hawks game the other night and there was one sequence that really defined Thomas’s season so far. On the offensive end he was at the top of the key and made a nice drive to the hoop, but his layup attempt was easily swatted away by Josh Smith. Going back on the other end Thomas was overaggressive when guarding Smith, who easily went by him, leaving Thomas no choice but to hack him. He’s still plenty skilled and is only 21, but right now he’s a guy with percentages of 41/52 who is averaging 3.4 fouls in just 21 mpg. He still has a great chance to be something like the next Ben Wallace, a monster in boards, steals and blocks, but it might not be for a while. I’ve got him parked at the bottom of my bench. Someone I might think about putting on my bench soon is Rajon Rondo. It’s not that he’s been terrible, he’s just been very unexciting. He’s even been a disappointment in steals, where I expected him to dominate. After grabbing 13 in the first four games of the season, he has only 7 in his 9 games since then, very underwhelming numbers for someone who was among the league leaders in steals per minute last year. The Celtics have no choice but to play him for at least 30 mpg, and his 2.5:1 assist/turnover ratio is solid (unlike his 43.5% from the line), but unless he picks it up, he might find himself coming off the bench once some veterans become available later in the year.