Happy New Year to all. Let’s look at the NBA week 12/31-1/6.

Four games: Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Indiana, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Portland.

Three Games: Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, LA Clippers, Memphis, Miami, New Jersey, New York, Orlando, Sacramento, San Antonio, Seattle, Toronto, Utah, Washington.

Two Games: LA Lakers, Phoenix.
 
Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Francisco Garcia, GF: Already seeing more time on the court since Kevin Martin got hurt, Garcia now finds himself back in the Kings’ starting lineup while Artest sits with a chipped bone in his elbow. The third-year swingman is a prime example of one of those efficient players who simply needs minutes to be a fantasy force. Averaging 19/4/3 with a three and 1.4 thefts as a starter, the Dominican baller is certainly a good guy to have in your lineup. Plug Francisco in for three contests this week.

Jeff Green, F: After a mini breakout with consecutive double-doubles in November, Green’s playing time was inexplicably cut back for most of December. The former Hoya was inserted into the Sonics’ lineup for his second start of the season last night, and he responded with 18 points on 8 for 14 shooting and swatted 3 shots as well. With the New Year on hand, Seattle appears to be looking to the future by getting their young players as many minutes as they can handle. As a starter, we can expect some nice fantasy contributions from the top 5 pick in 2008.

Roger Mason, PG: Not someone who was even remotely relevant in fantasy circles at the beginning of the year, Mason suddenly finds himself as the starting floor general in the nation’s capital. The hometown hero spent time playing in Europe, Israel, and Japan in recent years, but has been doing his best Gilbert Arenas impression, averaging 17/4/4 with 2.8 treys and 1.3 steals in his last four starts. Gilbert’s regular fill-in, Antonio Daniels, will be sidelined at another week or so, leaving Mason as the primary ball handler in Washington. He’s the feel-good story of the New Year and deserves a spot in your lineup with three games on tap this week.

Rafer Alston, PG: After a slow start to the season and missing time with an injury earlier this month, Skip 2 My Lou appears to have rediscovered his groove. Rafer’s posted 13/3/6 with 2.7 treys over his last six games. The dude still can’t shoot (38.5% on the season), but he’s worth starting for his contributions elsewhere, especially with T-Mac’s health in question and a full schedule coming up this week.

Bobby Simmons, GF: This one’s more of a speculative pickup/start.  Simmons has started the last three games for the Bucks, replacing the injured Desmond Mason. Simmons hasn’t scored in double figures in over two weeks, so his value is questionable to say the least, but you gotta believe that he’ll make some decent contributions as a starter in the coming weeks. Remember Simmons is only a couple years removed from being named the most improved player in the league when he averaged 16/6/3 with the Clips. He’s also the second-highest paid player on the team (after Michael Redd) and Milwaukee may want to at least pretend like they’re getting some return on their ill-advised investment. If you believe he can get it together, this might be the week to start him as the Bucks hit the hardwood four times.

Delonte West, G: Could someone finally be emerging from Seattle’s backcourt? If so, West is definitely the one we’d all like to see do so. His foot looks to be healed, and he’s taken advantage of Luke Ridnour missing more time with a quad injury. West has averaged 15/4/8 in his last two games, and could be in line for more minutes if he keeps up the solid play. Here’s hoping for some consistency and good times in 2008. West makes for a decent fill-in for those in deeper leagues this week.

So the big news this week in NBA land has been the cold-hearted firing of Scott Skiles - on Christmas Eve, no less!  But it’s not like you could find many reasons for keeping him around.  Yes, the Bulls tend to start slow every year, but this year the drought has been longer than normal, there’s been few signs of them pulling out of their funk, and there was clearly some discontent amongst the players.

So what does this mean for your fantasy Bulls players?  It seems like things can only go up from here - some of the biggest disappointments of the year have been in Chicago, and Skiles is a big fan of lineup-tweaking, making for unpredictable minutes and even more unpredictable performances.  Let’s take a look at who has the most to gain and the most to lose from a fantasy perspective over the next few weeks for the Bulls:

Ben Wallace - Wallace pretty much has to be the big winner here, for his own sake.  To put it another way, if he doesn’t turn it around with a new coach, he’s run out of excuses.  This was GM John Paxson’s big decision when the Bulls had all that cap room and a high draft pick two summers ago - he went with Wallace and Ty Thomas over Tyson Chandler and LaMarcus Aldridge.  While it’s clear to most of us that he made a pretty awful decision, with no real head coach to stand tall again Paxson, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Paxson force his big investment onto the floor a little more.  It’s no secret that Wallace and SKiles weren’t exactly best of friends - it only took a month before Headbandgate was in full swing, and Wallace was disappointing last year and has been absolutely awful this year.  But remember what he supposedly told Paxson last week - “He quit on us, so we’ve quit on him.”  He didn’t exactly have nice things to say to the press either after the firing and he should be a little pumped up and playing with a little more energy now that he’s out from under this mess.  Look for him to get back to his typical 35 mpg and possibly even back to his double-digit rebounding ways as he tries to prove that the problem was SKiles all along, and his game is just fine.

Andres Nocioni - Perhaps nobody has suffered more from Skiles’ whimsical lineups than Nocioni, who has tempted fantasy players for years with his 3-point potential and his nice scoring and rebounding numbers.  His per-minute numbers suggest that if he got starter’s minutes, like 35 mpg, he’d be at least a 20/7 guy with 2 threes and decent steals and blocks, as well.  The question is, as it has always been, where he’s going to get those minutes.  There’s a logjam at PF, as usual, with guys like Joe Smith, Tyrus Thomas, and Joaquim Noah all getting minutes.  What’s worse, Aaron Gray has been playing fairly well at C, meaning there’s less big man minutes to go around.  The other option that has been discussed is putting Ben Gordon back into his 6th man role and moving Luol Deng to the 2, and letting Nocioni get more minutes at SF.  We’ve got to see how this shakes out but there’s a better chance now than ever before for Nocioni to pick up some extra minutes, and if you’ve got an extra roster spot, he might be worth a look.

Kirk Hinrich - Hinrich has been quietly - and very slowly - pulling himself out of fantasy purgatory with some respectable performances the last few week.  He’s crept up to 75 on the APR over the past month and is at 51 over the past 2 weeks.  But just when you think things are going well, he plops down a performance like last Friday - 1-5 from the field, 0-1 from three, 2 points, 2 assists, 4 turnovers.  But what Hinrich has going for him more than anything else these days is the lack of depth at PG for the Bulls.  The only true PG on the squad is Chris Duhon, who has been out-of-favor with management due to his partying ways and was apparently on the trading block this summer.  So whoever the new coach is, you’ve gotta assume that he’ll give Hinrich every opportunity to play his way out of this funk.  Let’s hope he gets out of it.  Whatever you do, don’t sell low on Hinrich just yet.

Ben Gordon - Ya think Gordon regrets turning down that 5-year, $50M contract extension?  Gordon’s value is falling faster than anything outside of the housing market right now and he’s the most obvious change to be made by the new coach.  He’s a FA this year so Paxson doesn’t have any reason to let him play and try to up his value, and guys like Nocioni and Thabo Sefolosha, faves in Chicago, could be cutting into his playing time.  In fact, while he’s not worth his own paragraph, Sefolosha was expected to play a large role on this team before Skiles apparently shattered his confidence early in the season.  So Thabo could be in line for some more minutes himself, and those will undoubtedly come at the expense of Gordon, who has been playing a little bit better in December (particularly in his 3-point shooting), but still is falling flat on his typical numbers.  A move to the bench and a 6th-man role might be oncoming for Gordon, but it might be for the best overall.

The rest - One thing you can say about Chicago is that they’re not short on talent.  The issue is going to be who gets on the court.  Right now the guys I’ve listed above, plus Luol Deng, are probably the only guys worth owning but next in line would probably be Ty Thomas, who will be given a chance to play but will struggle to see the minutes he needs to counter his streaky performance.  But guys like Joe Smith, Jo Noah, and Aaron Gray, while occasionally tempting, will likely still be stuck on the bench far too often to have value.  So it goes.

Here’s a Special Holiday edition of H2HU for the NBA week of 12/24-12/30.  Drink up and be safe. What’s everybody’s favorite holiday drink anyway? Eggnog? Spiked apple cider? Heineken? Happy Merry Christmakwanzaaka everyone!

Four games: Boston, Miami, Phoenix.

Three Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Golden State, Indiana, LA Lakers, Memphis, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Orleans, Orlando, Philadelphia, Portland, Sacramento, San Antonio, Seattle, Utah, Washington.

Two Games: Atlanta, Houston, LA Clippers, New York, Toronto.
 
Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Rajon Rondo, G: He’s a borderline fantasy starter every week, but there’s good reason to plug him in for the Holidays. First, Boston has a full schedule on tap, and second, Rondo has improved his overall numbers (11/4/5, 1.7 thefts this month) despite being limited to about 30 mpg in December. He’s finally finding some consistency at the charity stripe this month as well, shooting 69% compared to a Diesel-esque 44% in November. The Celtics hit the road for four games this week, where Rondo tends to get more PT (34 mpg vs. 30mpg at home).

Sean Williams, FC: We’ve talked a bit about the rookie’s potential before, and now we’re starting to see what he can do with decent minutes.  Before Thursday’s game in which he got into early foul trouble, Williams was averaging 14 and 6 with 4 blocks and solid shooting (52% / 75%) in three games as a starter. Coach Lawrence Frank has nicknamed Williams “Le Freak Elastique”, which admittedly has a better ring to it than Jason “Ratboy” Collins.  If Sean can hold onto his starting spot over the likes of Collins and Malik Allen, then he should be able to settle into some nice stat lines and prove to be a decent C2.

Yi Jianlian, PF: The 20-year old rookie from the People’s Republic of China is averaging 14/7 with 1.2 blocks and superb shooting over the last couple weeks. His playing time and overall numbers have been steadily increasing as the season progresses, and you can expect his fantasy contributions to do the same. The Bucks visit Denver on Wednesday for what should be a high scoring affair, then face Chicago and New Jersey later in the week. Get Eazy-Yi in your lineups this week.

Rashad McCants, G: Before sitting out last night with “the flu” the former Tar Heel had caught fire after missing time with a minor injury. McCants has hit at least two treys in all but one game this month and is averaging nearly twice as many threes in December (2.7) as he did last month (1.4). Coming off the bench has improved his shooting percentages (especially from downtown) and he’s actually been getting more minutes in a reserve role. With Randy Foye having another setback and Marko Jaric hitting a wall, look for Rashad to continue his stellar play.

Nazr Mohammed, C: Congratulations Charlotte Bobcats, you have found yourselves a new starting center! You no longer have to worry about Primoz Brezec getting pushed around in the paint now that you’ve landed a 10-year veteran who’s averaged 15 minutes a game over his last four seasons. The journeyman center is actually poised to have a ‘breakout’ of sorts on his new team… as evidenced by his 19/11/1 and 3.5 blocks in his first two starts. Much like his career season in New York where he was a double-double machine, Nazr will be given starters’ minutes in his new digs. One thing we do know about Nazr, is that when given the opportunity, he produces for his fantasy owners.

Brendan Haywood, C: Career year for Brendan… He’s posting close to a double-double every night and has swatted more shots (41) this season than Ben Wallace (37), Tim Duncan (36), and Kevin Garnett (34). Sure, Haywood still sucks, but that doesn’t mean he’s useless in the fantasy world. You gotta give him credit for stepping it up (a bit) with Etan Thomas out for the season and for posting career highs across the board including fantastic percentages (55%FG / 71%FT). With three matchups this week, Haywood makes for a better start than guys like Eddy Curry and Al Horford (2 games a piece).

Let’s get right to it … remember, this is for roto-style, no-TO leagues.

1. Lebron James, CLE (Last Month: 3) - I hear people talking about how he’s really taking off this year, but statistically the only real improvement has been in blocks.  In fact, I’m still not sure he’s any better this year than he was in ‘04-05, though I will buy that his averages are slightly skewed from his two half-games from the finger injury.  Still, it’s good enough for #1 on this list, a spot he hasn’t been in for quite some time.  Welcome to the top, LeBron.

2. Kobe Bryant, LAL (2) - I very nearly put him at #1 over Lebron.  Why?  2 reasons - one, i’m not sure that LeBron’s blocks are sustainable, and two, LeBron still hurts you in FT%, whereas Kobe doesn’t hurt you anywhere.

3. Kevin Garnett, BOS (1) - He’s playing just 31 mpg in December, which is a serious concern.  If this keeps up, next month KG may drop out of the top 5 even though he’s still playing like a beast when he’s on the court.

4. Chris Paul, NO (13) - He’s playing the best ball out of everyone in the league right now.  The problem is that almost everything is well above his career average, particularly the FT% and the steals, both of which may come down.  So we’ll put him at 4 for now, and see what happens.

5. Shawn Marion, PHO (5) - Marion’s 69% from the stripe is one of the most confusing stats of the year - but then you see that he’s hitting 88% in December and everything’s OK.

6. Steve Nash, PHO (4) - Last year I put Nash at 6 and stuck him there all year.  After putting him a bit too high at 4 last month, I might do the same this year.  It just fits him.

7. Yao Ming, HOU (6) - Gotta love the big guy getting all worked up over his team not being tough, huh?  He’s turned into exactly what we thought he could be - a reliable 20/10/2 big guy who actually helps from the line.

8. Amare Stoudemire, PHO (11) - Two years back from microfracture surgery and now he’s getting his timing back on the defensive end, where he’s putting up a career-high 2 BPG.  His minutes are also creeping back to where they should be after his rough first two weeks, which has kept his numbers a little deflated.

9. Caron Butler, WAS (N/A) - The amazing thing about Caron, and some folks will disagree with me here, is that despite the awesome performance, he’s not one of those guys that you notice every time he’s on the floor.  That doesn’t mean a thing for fantasy purposes, though.

10. Josh Smith, ATL (8) - I’m still concerned that he gets SO much of his value from blocks, and I still don’t think he’s going to end the year above 3.5 pg.  He went from 3.6 in November to 3.0 in December so far.

11. Allen Iverson, DEN (14) - Remember when we were wondering who was going to be the alpha dog in Denver, him or Carmelo?  I think we can put that argument to rest.  When is AI going to show his age, though?  I’m a bit worried about wear and tear come spring.

12. Carlos Boozer, UTH (N/A) - The 57% from the field continues to amaze me.  Unfortunately, he’s returning to his poor FT shooting (as some commenters figured he would last month), but the unlikely uptick in steals and assists puts him here in the top 20.

13. Baron Davis, GSW (N/A) - It’s too bad for Baron that he’s officially banned from being in the top 10 ever again, because he’s putting together a nice case for himself.  If only he wasn’t a lock to miss 20 games …

14. Dwyane Wade, MIA (7) - At this point I think you have to be concerned that Wade has rushed himself back to try and save the season for the Heat.  He’s a turnover machine, his percentages are way down, and he’s been pretty awful, for his standards, save for that one 4-game stretch early in December.  I’m a little worried he might have to shut it back down at some point.

15. Dwight Howard, ORL (N/A) - DM and I were discussing Howard yesterday, and I think that he will be overrated from a fantasy standpoint for the next few years.  Kind of like how Tim Duncan was a first-round pick even though he always landed in the 12-20 range on the player rater, Howard is so monstrous in those big man categories that people tend to forget that, all things considered, he’s a second-round kinda guy.  Eventually, Duncan started getting drafted in the second round, and that should eventually happen for Howard, too.

16. Manu Ginobili, SAS (9) - So much for shooting 50% for the year, huh?  Ginobili struggled with his shot when both Duncan and Parker were out, but he should return to form just fine.

17. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (10) - Hey Dirk, you might wanna check your luggage - it looks like you mighta left about 15% of your game in Australia this summer.

18. Chauncey Billups, DET (N/A) - It’s absolutely amazing how similar his numbers are this year compared to last year - the 11.6 shots per game, 1.6-of-4.5 from the arc, 1.2 steals … and everything else is pretty much right where it was, too.  Scary.

19.  Jason Kidd, NJN (N/A) - The stats are nice and all, as usual, but if I’m a Kidd owner I’m a little worried that this season might blow up in his face.  There’s just not a lot of good news in his world right now, and if the Nets continue to stink, who knows what could happen?

20.  As usual, we leave this one up to the commenters.  Who goes 20?

A big deal just went down in our league. Carlos Boozer and Cuttino Mobley for Jason Terry and Ron Artest. On the surface it seems like a fairly standard 1 and 4 for 2 and 3 deal – one team getting the best and worst player, the other team getting the middle two players. But did the team trading Boozer really get a good enough return?

Boozer finished 20/31 on the player rater last year and was seen as a consensus third round pick. It was hard to see him improving much off last year’s numbers and he remained an injury risk in the eyes of most. But Boozer, like his teammate Deron Williams, has proven that last year was no fluke and he is a fantasy force to be reckoned with. As fantasy enthusiasts often do, we look for what’s wrong with a player’s game before we appreciate what’s right. Boozer is a center who doesn’t block shots. Never has, never will. In fact, the 0.6 per game he’s averaging this season would be one of the better marks of his career. So starting him at a center spot leaves you short in blocks. So what? The numbers don’t lie and right now Boozer is a Top 5 player. He and Dwight Howard are the premier anchors in FG%, offering value in that category equivalent to what Marcus Camby gives you in blocks. He’s a monster on the boards, averaging 11.7 per game for the second straight season. He’s upped his scoring to 25 ppg, held his assists at a very respectable 3.1 per game and is even chipping in an impressive 1.4 steals. He missed one game with a sprained ankle but returned the next night with 24/15 in 40 minutes, putting to rest any concerns that it would be a lingering problem. He’s been held under 17 points just once this season and has reached double digit boards in 19 of 24 games. Maybe he won’t finish the season in the Top 5, but it’s time to start treating Boozer as a premium fantasy player instead of merely a very good one.

So with that said, are Ron Artest and Jason Terry enough in return for him? I don’t really think it is. Artest has been his usual self since returning from a 7-game suspension to start the season, which is to say that he’d be really great if percentages didn’t count. Unfortunately, that’s not the case in most leagues and his 43% (on 16 shots per game) and 62% from the line (should improve slightly) do some serious damage. BV and I attended the Wizards/Kings game on Saturday night and Artest was almost an afterthought out there, he rarely made his presence felt. The Kings aren’t an all-out disaster, but that team is going nowhere this season and could be in for some upheaval. And when you’re dealing with Artest there’s always some risk involved, especially if there is a hint of instability with the team. He’s going to be great in the counting stats, as always, and is especially valuable to teams looking to make a run in steals, but he’s no fantasy superstar.

Same goes for Terry. He had a scorching hot beginning of the season but is now back to being Jason Terry which is fine, just fine. He’s averaging 17.4 ppg in 30 minutes as a sub but only 15.9 ppg in 37 minutes as a starter, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. His FG% remains stellar, he just isn’t looking for his shot as much lately, for whatever reason. It seems like every year we say that Terry is an undervalued fantasy property, and it was probably even more true this year since his average draft position was likely knocked down due to him starting the season coming off the bench. He’s currently at 24/41 for the season, but is #65 for the past month, which is about right for Terry.

Maybe the owner who traded Boozer picked the right time to sell high. There are some other factors involved that make the deal more sensible – this owner has been devastated by injuries and has used up fewer games than anyone in the league, meaning that getting two solid players helps him more than most teams since he has lots of games and ground to make up – but it still seems like he could have held out for more. Would you trade Yao Ming for Terry and Artest? Unlikely. But Boozer has proven to be on Yao’s level this season, if not above it, and it’s time to start recognizing that fact.

One of the important, unconventional stats that we look at here at FBB is minutes. No matter how good a player may be, they need to actually be on the floor to produce value, and most players will tend to do good things when they get the opportunity (with the exception of the Collins brothers and DeShawn Stevenson). Today we look at a few players to think about adding to your bench or watch list, because if for whatever reason they get an extra boost in PT then they will be a valuable asset.

Craig Smith
Let’s first start with the man who actually inspired this column a little over a week ago. Since then, he has gone on to not only enter the Minnesota starting lineup, but also put out great numbers as well. His per-35 minutes numbers project out to about 16/8 with good percentages and weak defensive numbers. This was highlighted by his 36 point, 8 rebound performance the other night. He may not solve your team’s every need, but he can produce good value and will continue to see consistent playing time. Overall, this one was too easy to call, with Theo Ratliff being incredibly injury prone and with the strong season finish that Smith had last year.

Brandon Bass
Bass is another solid candidate for an explosion if anything were to happy to Dirk Nowitzki misses time. It seemed that this guy had too much promise for New Orleans to justify cutting him and he’s sure demonstrating why with some huge games. Bass is projecting per-35 minutes to about 15/8 but would add decent blocks and surprisingly good FT% values as well. Bass seems like an ideal handcuff candidate for Dirk owners and looks like he could be a force in the NBA if he continues current development over the next few years.

Delonte West
Okay, so I know that he’s injured right now, but you have to feel sorry for the position that this guy is in. He’s stuck on a team that’s in extraordinary flux with too many players fighting for time at the PG and SG positions, and attempts at playing Kevin Durant as a guard haven’t helped matters either. West is not an absolutely great player, but what is a fact is that he contributes across the board in nearly every category. There is no need to project numbers, as he showed us what he could do in 05-06 when he put up 12/4/4.5 with good percentages and nearly making the 1/1/1 club (steals/blocks/threes). Overall, this FBB favorite is clearly being misused in his current Seattle role, and while he may not be a fantasy force right now, if roster shake-ups occur then he could end up with some very nice value. There’s a reason he finished #52 overall on the PR two years ago.

Sacramento Swingmen
If there is any team that can be said to have excellent depth at SG/SF, Sacramento would have to be near the top of any list. In addition to having all-star caliber Kevin Martin and Ron Artest, both John Salmons and Francisco Garcia have shown to be quite valuable whenever they get an opportunity to showcase their abilities. There are simply too many players here to list all of their stats, but if you look at game logs, you’ll see exactly what I’m talking about. Injuries and suspensions to Martin, Artest and Mike Bibby have given these backup guards the opportunity they need, but they still need consistent playing time to have sustained value, which is not something particularly certain. Sacramento though, with all of their talent and the lack of production, you have to think it’s a team that will likely get blown up with a roster make-over sometime soon. Keep an eye on the playing time of these players, as whoever is getting the start will likely give great value from a backup.

Now to be honest, it has been difficult for me to keep up with the NBA as I continue traveling around Europe, and thus I’m sure I’m missing some great additions to this list. Help me out by nominating another player for my watch list by adding a comment below! Until next time, take care and have a wonderful holiday season.

Here at FBB Headquarters (Motto: Deliver Us From Hinrich), we are always wary of unexpected surges in blocks and steals.  Yeah, they’re great while they last, but odds are that in the long run, guys will eventually revert to their career numbers unless they are a) young, b) on a new team or c) putting together their games in other ways as well.

This year, there are a number of young, veteran big men who are putting up unexpectedly strong numbers in the blocks department.  Let’s spend a little time going through who’s improved, and more importantly, figure out why, and if we think they’re going to keep it up.

Andrew Bogut
Blocks last year: 0.5
Blocks this year: 2.2
What’s Changed: Well, not much in the big picture, really.  Bogut has been a mild disappointment overall and a significant disappointment in the blocks department for fantasy owners and his NBA team so far in his career. But an apparent devotion to defense and rebounding in the offseason has been getting a lot of credit for the turnaround.  This year, Bogut has posted multiple blocks in 12 of 19 games and has been a real pleasant suprise for owners expecting next to nothing in that category from the Aussie.  The Bucks are benefitting as well as their opponents’ PPG is down from 104 to 100.8.
What to Expect:  You know, all this talk about an offseason devotion to rebounding and defense sounds great, but my question is, what happened to the rebounding?  How can a guy spend all of his offseason on two things, and improve drastically in one while staying essentially the same in the other?  My fluke-o-meter is picking up strong signals from Bogut, as he’s essentially the same player he was his first two years in the league except for the shot-swatting.  My guess is, he’ll revert at least somewhat to form, and end the year in the 1-1.5 bpg range.

Chris Kaman
Blocks last year: 1.6
Blocks this year: 3.0
What’s Changed: Kaman has been playing with a chip on his shoulder ever since being turned down for the lead role in “Cavemen” this fall, and it hasn’t hurt matters that Elton Brand has gotten out of his way in the low post.  He’s been an absolute monster this year, with 18.5 points and 13.7 boards, and he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down.  Kaman has always been a decent shot blocker but his 3 per game, good for second in the league, is much more than anyone could have hoped for.
What to Expect: Kaman is about one year too late for a contract push, so I’m not sure where this is coming from.  I have a hard time believing that he’s this good just all of a sudden though, and that counts for the rebounds as much as the blocks.  Still, with Brand out, the Clippers are going to give him every opportunity to keep this going.  Lets assume that he’ll cool down eventually, but he should still b e a 2+ bpg kinda guy until and possibly after Brand returns.

Danny Granger
Blocks last year: 0.7
Blocks this year: 1.5
What’s Changed: Granger was a mild disappointment last year in the defensive categories.  After showing Rasheed Wallace-esque potential in his rookie season (i.e. at least one block, steal, and three), Granger got the 30+ minutes required by nearly every player in the league to have fantasy value, started shooting more from the outside … and saw his blocks and steals per minute drop significantly.  This year, though, the defensive stats are back in full force, and you have to think that new Pacers coach Jim O’Brien has something to do with it.  O’Brien is known for his wide-open, free-wheeling style and while we usually think about it having an effect on the offensive end, the fact is that it can affect how players perform on defense as well.  In fact, despite Jermaine O’Neal’s struggles, the Pacers as a team are swatting the same 5.5 shots per game as they did last year, meaning a lot of folks are stepping it up a little bit.
What to Expect:  I’d expect Granger to keep it up, or at least be close to this level of production for the rest of the year.  He showed in his rookie year that he was capable of being an effective shot-blocker, and after a swoon last year is putting together his abilities with his minutes and turning into a great fantasy player.  Enjoy it.

Drafting centers is always one of the biggest dilemmas on draft day. It can make or break a season. I’d be loving my team right now if it wasn’t for my men in the middle – FT% killer Emeka Okafor and pansy-ass Mehmet Okur. Coming into this year’s draft there were a handful of intriguing young big men that had some risk attached to them. So how have they been faring so far? Let’s take a look.

LaMarcus Aldridge
Avg Draft Position: 61.5
Current Rank: 53
Stats: 18.7/7.7/0.8, 53.3% FG, 75.9% FT, 1.3 bpg, 0.7 spg, 34.3 mpg

If you reached for Aldridge in the late-third or early-fourth, as happened in our league, he’s been a slight disappointment. Otherwise, the second year, 22-year old has performed just as expected as the Blazers’ secondary offensive threat behind Brandon Roy. He’s learned how to play without fouling so much – his fouls per 48 are down to 4.8 from last year’s 6.4 – and last night’s overtime game against the Bucks was his first disqualification of the year. His blocks have been disappointing, averaging just 1.3 this season after averaging almost exactly the same in 12 fewer minutes last year. This could just be an early season blip, but Aldridge is also starting to look like a player in the Chris Bosh mold, and Bosh has always been serviceable but never dominant in blocks. His inside/outside game is greatly developed and shooting 53% on almost 15 attempts per game is quite a feat. More than half of his rebounds come on the offensive glass which means that he’s not the most fundamentally sound rebounder but has a knack for finding the ball. If he can improve on the defensive side he should have no problem reaching double digits soon. It will, of course, be interesting to see how life is next season with Greg Oden, but a string of 20/10 seasons seems very reasonable.

Andris Biedrins
Avg Draft Position: 74.1
Current Rank: 57
Stats: 11.0/10.0/1.5, 62.8% FG, 66.7% FT, 1.5 bpg, 0.6 spg, 29.2 mpg

Biedrins was nearly invisible in last night’s highly entertaining matchup with the Lakers but has proven to be a solid draft day value despite numbers that on the surface don’t look too fantastic. There’s reason to be worried since he’s topped 30 minutes just once in the last eight games after logging heavy minutes at the beginning of the season, but things change quickly when Don Nelson’s in charge. That nearly 63% from the field is what makes Biedrins so valuable but in a way it’s also what hinders him. Only Dwight Howard, Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire and Shaq help their teams more in the FG% category. But he simply has no offensive game of his own, almost all of his shots are layups or putbacks, and sometimes that handicap is too much for the Warriors trigger happy style. Biedrins went through similar stretches of inconsistent playing time last year and his owners have to hope that he’ll bounce back with some big-minute, 18-rebound games to make up for his recent downturn in minutes. Because of the Warriors pace, even 25 minutes is equivalent to around 30 minutes of action on other teams.

Andrew Bynum
Avg Draft Position: 100.3
Current Rank: 58
Stats: 10.9/9.7/1.5, 58.7% FG, 68.4% FT, 2.0 bpg, 0.5 spg, 26.1 mpg

Bynum certainly went a few rounds later than the two previously mentioned players but he’s right there with them in providing solid 5^th round value so far. I owned Bynum for a stretch last year so I watched him play a lot and I was always very impressed. He had some of the same mental lapses and fatigue issues that plague young bigs, but his fundamentals were very solid and they are just getting better. He utilizes his long arms to great effect, on both ends of the floor. On offense, his high release is reminiscent of Rasheed Wallace’s, in that his shot is basically unblockable. His touch is improving mightily, too. On the defensive end, his blocks are straight out of the textbook – arms straight in the air, swatting away. Unlike, say, Josh Smith or Andray Blatche who rely on pure athletic freakishness for their highlight denials. Phil Jackson is still going to cause some frustration here, and while Kwame Brown and Chris Mihm both pretty much suck, they will still limit Bynum’s upside. He’s at just 26 mpg right now and while folks may look at his numbers and be begging to get that number up to the 32 range, he plays best in short stretches. Maybe the Lakers knew what they were doing all along by refusing to trade him. Out of all the guys on this list, he might be the one I’d rank highest if we’re talking about building a real NBA team.

Al Horford
Avg Draft Position: 121.3
Current Rank: 93
Stats: 8.8/10.8/1.1, 49.6% FG, 63.6% FT, 1.2 bpg, 1.0 spg, 32.6 mpg

He’s not putting up numbers of the above, and he’s actually older than Bynum, but Horford is showing tons of promise as a rookie. Granted, minutes have a lot to do with that – his 32.6 per game lead all rookies except for Kevin Durant – but it’s not like he’s not deserving. Horford has shown great energy and athleticism; Hawks former lottery pick Shelden Williams looks like he plays in slow motion compared to the rookie from Florida. His offensive game still needs refinement and there aren’t a ton of shots to go around with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith firing up at will, but Horford stays busy on the glass and in the passing lanes. He’s totaled a staggering 67 boards in his last five games and it looks like the Zaza Pachulia era is over in Atlanta. (What an era it was!) It’s too early to know for certain if Horford’s steals are for real or whether it’s just luck based on a small sample size. But if that skill is for real and he can be a 1.2 steals/1.5 blocks player, he’s going to be in the same discussion as the other young big men.

Here’s looking at you NBA week 12/10-12/16:

Four games: Atlanta, Dallas, Detroit, Golden State, Indiana, LA Clippers, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Portland, Sacramento, Seattle, Toronto, Utah.

Three Games: Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Houston, LA Lakers, Memphis, Miami, New Jersey, New Orleans, Phoenix, San Antonio, Washington.
 
Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

John Salmons, GF: An obvious pick-up with Kevin Martin out for the next 6 weeks. Salmons is averaging a relatively ridiculous 20/5/4 and 1.4 steals as a starter this season. Similarly, Francisco Garcia (18/4/3, 1.5 spg as a starter) is another nice option with Martin and Bibby both sidelined. Minutes can truly work wonders for a player’s fantasy value (with the exception of Jarron and Jason Collins of course). Salmons and Garcia are nice Christmas gifts for those who were able to snatch them off waivers. The Kings got four games on tap this week. Enjoy.

Travis Outlaw, F: He’s scored in double figures in 5 of his last 6 games despite still coming off the bench in Portland. Outlaw is seeing more playing time mostly at the expense of Martell Webster, who’s numbers have dwindled recently. Many folks have talked about a breakout season for Outlaw every year since 2003, and it may finally happen. His situation reminds me of how Jermaine O’Neal was handled by the Trailblazers in the 1990s.  Like Outlaw, O’Neal was drafted straight out of high school, and was brought along very slowly… never averaging more than 14 minutes per game in his first four seasons in the league. After those four quiet years in Portland, O’Neal was traded to Indiana where he was finally given the opportunity to flourish. He became an All-star almost overnight and has averaged nearly 20/10 ever since. Outlaw has not yet been given that chance, but he could be on the verge of commanding a starting spot in the Blazers’ lineup. Portland plays four times this week and my boy makes a solid fantasy start.

Marko Jaric, GF: Yes, I have an excuse to mention his girlfriend again this week. After missing a couple games with a sprained ankle, Jaric returned to action Thursday and dropped 18/8/9, then helped the Wolves defeat the Suns with 19 points on Saturday. It’s worth noting that Sebastian Telfair and Jaric are both seeing starter’s minutes right now, and they should continue to be decent fantasy starts for at least one more week. Randy Foye has just been cleared by team doctors to return to practice, so be sure to pick him up if you haven’t already done so.

Larry Hughes, G: With the NBA’s scoring leader currently sidelined, the Cleveland Cavs have lost 6 straight games by an average of 16 points. Aside from Lebron, nobody on the team averages more than 14.5 ppg. Needless to say, they are desperately looking for someone to try to fill some of that scoring void. Enter 10-year vet Larry Hughes, who’s missed nearly a month with a bone bruise. Hughes led the Cavs with 22 points, en route to a tough 96-93 loss at Charlotte last night. LBJ will likely be back on the floor this week, but Hughes has an opportunity to be a part of reviving the team. Hughes has averaged at least 15 ppg the last four seasons, and at 28 years old he’s certainly not over the hill. So there’s good reason to believe he can bounce back and have another solid season if he can maintain his health.

Quentin Richardson, GF: He’s averaging only 7.2 ppg and shooting a horrid 32.2% from the floor this season. So why the hell should you start him? Well, let’s just say November wasn’t a good month for Q. He’s playing 40 mpg so far in December and has already seen a uptick in most of his numbers. He’s averaged 1+ treys per game every season since 2001, and cleans the glass quite often for a swingman. He actually averages more rebounds (6.9 rpg) than teammate and so-called center Eddy Curry (5.9 rpg). The Knicks tipoff four times this week (three at home), so don’t be scared to plug him into your lineup in deeper leagues.

Please take a seat:

Andrew Bynum, C: He has been slowed by the flu, and Chris Mihm is inexplicably stealing some of his minutes recently. The Lakers only play three times this week, so you may want to sit Bynum down.

J.R. Smith, SG: He’s hit only 1 trey in four games this month, and he has yet to top 30 minutes in a single game this season. Bench him or drop him. Whatever you prefer.

OK, so the drama is probably over and it’s looking like Anderson Varejao is headed back to the Cavaliers, despite saying that he doesn’t want to play for them.  Whatever.  I’m not here to psycho-analyze.  Instead, let’s get straight into the fantasy analysis and see what this means for the Cavs frontcourt:

Anderson Varejao
I gotta say, when I saw this comment on our arch-nemesis Rotoworld’s site, I was pretty surprised: “Either way, it’s time to grab Varejao if you have an open roster spot, just in case he ends up in Charlotte (or Cleveland).”  I mean … really?  When has Anderson Varejao been anything more than an absolute emergency fill-in center?  He doesn’t even crack the top 150 on last year’s player rater, and that was easily his best season as a fantasy player.  He’s an OK source of steals for a center and will rebound a bit, but doesn’t really bring anything else to the table and is a complete zero offensively.  Yes, he leads the league in charges, but none of us play Duke Rules Fantasy Basketball, so that doesn’t help.

On top of that, it’s not like he’s a great candidate to make a major improvement this year.  For one, I’m going to go out on a limb here and guess that Anderson isn’t exactly in playing shape right now.  The only real report on what he’s been doing all season came from Chad Ford, who said he’d been “working on his jump hook and trying to stay in shape,” whatever that means.  For two, he’s not exactly coming back with a great attitude, and for a guy whose main asset is the energy he brings to the floor, that can’t be good.  Finally, while this is only his 4th season, he’s already 25, and he was on the international player plan, meaning he’s been playing ‘pro’ since he was 18.  So it’s not like you can expect him to add some facet to his game out of the blue.

Drew Gooden
Gooden has been enjoying a banner year with the absence of Varejao - sort of like Brendan Haywood in the absence of Etan Thomas, only better.  He’s been getting about 7 mpg more, and his averages have risen accordingly, staying in line with his traditional per-minute averages.  Yes, he’s still pretty much Zach Randolph-lite, but with the extra minutes he’s cracked the top 100 on the APR, and he’s averaging a double-double.  With Varejao coming back, though, things may get dicey for Gooden.  His fantasy surge has pretty much exclusively been due to his rise in minutes and it’s not unreasonable to think that once Varejao gets into game shape, Gooden will fall back to the 28 mpg or so he’s been getting throughout his career in Cleveland.  The one catch is if LeBron James misses an extended period of time, which would make Gooden the emergency ‘leading scorer’ of the Cavs, a horrifying situation for Cleveland but possibly pretty nice for Gooden owners.  Even if that’s the case, though, the drop in FG% resulting from LeBron not being around would likely offset whatever raise Gooden sees in ppg.

Zydraunas Ilgauskas
This is probably bad news for Big Z in the short term, but good news in the long term.  While generally you like to see guys play as many games as possible, that’s not necessarily the case with a 32 year old, 7-3 Center.  And while you have to give Z all the credit in the world for coming back from his early-career knee issues, it’s still a little concerning to see him back to playing 33 mpg after two straight years of PT drops.  On the other hand, he’s playing some of the best basketball of his career.  His rebounding numbers are off the charts, leading the league in OREB’s and posting about 2.5 more DREB’s per game more than any other point in his career post-surgery.

And it’s for all these reasons it’s probably for the best that Ilgauskas gets a little more rest during games.  If he’s able to keep up these astounding per-minute rebounding numbers, even the return to his normal minutes won’t prevent him from providing great return for his owners on the mid-late round pick that they spent on him.  And what’s more, it makes it all the more likely that he’ll be around when you really need him in March and April.  And isn’t that what really counts?