OK, so the drama is probably over and it’s looking like Anderson Varejao is headed back to the Cavaliers, despite saying that he doesn’t want to play for them. Whatever. I’m not here to psycho-analyze. Instead, let’s get straight into the fantasy analysis and see what this means for the Cavs frontcourt:
Anderson Varejao
I gotta say, when I saw this comment on our arch-nemesis Rotoworld’s site, I was pretty surprised: “Either way, it’s time to grab Varejao if you have an open roster spot, just in case he ends up in Charlotte (or Cleveland).” I mean … really? When has Anderson Varejao been anything more than an absolute emergency fill-in center? He doesn’t even crack the top 150 on last year’s player rater, and that was easily his best season as a fantasy player. He’s an OK source of steals for a center and will rebound a bit, but doesn’t really bring anything else to the table and is a complete zero offensively. Yes, he leads the league in charges, but none of us play Duke Rules Fantasy Basketball, so that doesn’t help.
On top of that, it’s not like he’s a great candidate to make a major improvement this year. For one, I’m going to go out on a limb here and guess that Anderson isn’t exactly in playing shape right now. The only real report on what he’s been doing all season came from Chad Ford, who said he’d been “working on his jump hook and trying to stay in shape,” whatever that means. For two, he’s not exactly coming back with a great attitude, and for a guy whose main asset is the energy he brings to the floor, that can’t be good. Finally, while this is only his 4th season, he’s already 25, and he was on the international player plan, meaning he’s been playing ‘pro’ since he was 18. So it’s not like you can expect him to add some facet to his game out of the blue.
Drew Gooden
Gooden has been enjoying a banner year with the absence of Varejao – sort of like Brendan Haywood in the absence of Etan Thomas, only better. He’s been getting about 7 mpg more, and his averages have risen accordingly, staying in line with his traditional per-minute averages. Yes, he’s still pretty much Zach Randolph-lite, but with the extra minutes he’s cracked the top 100 on the APR, and he’s averaging a double-double. With Varejao coming back, though, things may get dicey for Gooden. His fantasy surge has pretty much exclusively been due to his rise in minutes and it’s not unreasonable to think that once Varejao gets into game shape, Gooden will fall back to the 28 mpg or so he’s been getting throughout his career in Cleveland. The one catch is if LeBron James misses an extended period of time, which would make Gooden the emergency ‘leading scorer’ of the Cavs, a horrifying situation for Cleveland but possibly pretty nice for Gooden owners. Even if that’s the case, though, the drop in FG% resulting from LeBron not being around would likely offset whatever raise Gooden sees in ppg.
Zydraunas Ilgauskas
This is probably bad news for Big Z in the short term, but good news in the long term. While generally you like to see guys play as many games as possible, that’s not necessarily the case with a 32 year old, 7-3 Center. And while you have to give Z all the credit in the world for coming back from his early-career knee issues, it’s still a little concerning to see him back to playing 33 mpg after two straight years of PT drops. On the other hand, he’s playing some of the best basketball of his career. His rebounding numbers are off the charts, leading the league in OREB’s and posting about 2.5 more DREB’s per game more than any other point in his career post-surgery.
And it’s for all these reasons it’s probably for the best that Ilgauskas gets a little more rest during games. If he’s able to keep up these astounding per-minute rebounding numbers, even the return to his normal minutes won’t prevent him from providing great return for his owners on the mid-late round pick that they spent on him. And what’s more, it makes it all the more likely that he’ll be around when you really need him in March and April. And isn’t that what really counts?
18 Responses to “Anderson’s Effect”
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December 5th, 2007 at 7:47 am
why is rotoworld your archnemesis?
December 5th, 2007 at 8:24 am
Not really Rotoworld, just that Dr. A guy – I mean, what, like you can really get a doctorate in fantasy basketball!?
December 5th, 2007 at 11:10 am
i agree bv! about 1 hour after the news broke that varejao had signed the bobcats offer sheet, he was picked up in my league. i have no idea why, hes not going to provide great #’s, theres a reason danny ferry didnt want to give him much money, because hes not worth 10 mil a year.
sidenote: anyone read that story about danny ferry bypassing andersons agent and flying down to andersons house in brazil with a contract…..the same contract that anderson turned down in the summer? I guess skipping around agents is frowned upon because anderson told ferry to talk to his agent and to leave
.
so anyways, this hurts other players more than it helps varejao in the fantasy world. It may speak to how weak the FA pool has been this season.
about a week late on this one. that was not hinrichs fault for that lazy pass to joakim noah. I know hinrich took the blame, but if im the captain of the team that is 2-9 and a rookie gets that excited over a steal and jumps around like only noah would, and doesnt hustle, id make him look like a fool too!
December 5th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
Is it time to drop Troy Murphy?
December 5th, 2007 at 4:16 pm
Murphy still has a tiny bit of value due to his ability to hit 3s. If you’re in a roto league find the guy who has the best FG%, and needs some 3s, and has some strengths in an area of need for you.
At this point you should probably be willing to take virtually any roster player for Murphy, if only to fill a need for you.
Also, what do you guys think of the deal I just made:
I dealt Jamal Crawford for Okur.
I’m in need of boards, so might it be worthwhile to package Okur for somebody else? Who are some guys I could go after?
December 5th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
Haha, I was thinking the exact same thing when I read Rotoworld’s comment. I looked at Varejao’s stats, game history… and there is absolutely no reason to pickup the guy. Picking him up will only kill your free-throws and not help out much in any category.
One other Rotoworld analysis I did not agree with this week was on Ronnie Brewer. Rotoworld advised that “Brewer has really settled into Utah’s starting shooting guard. He’s scored in double figures in 17 of his 18 contests this year. He doesn’t contribute much in other statistical categories, but is very consistent offensively. With four games in Weeks 6-8, he should make a decent No. 3 or 4 fantasy guard.”
Errr, come on. The guy is averaging 2.4 steals and is tied for #2 in the league for the category. He also has 50+% fg, 80+%ft and just 1.1 turnovers a game. Rotoworld should focus on all fantasy categories instead of looking just at points, rebounds, assists like a fantasy noobie.
I bet Rotoworld ranks Shawn Marion in the 5th round as well!
December 5th, 2007 at 7:55 pm
haha, love the rotoworld archnemesis bit…you guys are a million times better! you’re specialists!
but I do think Georgetown offers a joint MBA/JD in fantasy basketball analysis.
December 6th, 2007 at 6:32 pm
What do you guys think of this trade?
I send Richard Jefferson and Jamal Crawford for Andre Iguodala.
Also spending my #2 waiver on Kirk Hinrich
Here’s how my 12-man H2H team will look after the trade/waviers:
PG Deron Williams
SG Vince Carter
G Kirk Hinrich
SF Rashard Lewis
PF David West
F Lamar Odom
C Yao Ming
C Jermaine O’Neal
Util Andre Iguodala
Util LaMarcus Aldridge
BN Peja Stojakovic
BN Grant Hill
BN Al Horford
December 6th, 2007 at 9:04 pm
[...] Anderson’s EffectBy bvYes, he’s still pretty much Zach Randolph-lite, but with the extra minutes he’s cracked the top 100 on the APR, and he’s averaging a double-double. With Varejao coming back, though, things may get dicey for Gooden. His fantasy surge has …Fantasy Basketblog – http://www.fantasybasketblog.net [...]
December 7th, 2007 at 1:26 am
Jago,
I like that deal for you. Iguodola is a great buy-low right now since he’s been in a season-long shooting slump. He will break out monster numbers soon enough.
Make sure you play Grant Hill until Hinrich figures things out (if ever). I think that was a worthwhile waiver usage, but give the bulls time to get back to normal.
I just traded Dirk for Jason Kidd. I needed a stud guard real bad and I was overloaded with forwards and centers. My thinking is that Dirk’s value has decreased slightly over the last couple of years with Josh Howard and company getting more offensive looks. And the junk surrounding Kidd doesn’t really worry me…he’s gonna put up numbers when he’s out there and if he gets traded, great! What are your thoughts on this trade?
And should I drop Jeff Green for Marko Jaric?
December 7th, 2007 at 11:05 am
I always get embarassed for Dr. A when I read Rotoworld. It’s great that they aggregate player news in a really user friendly way – that to me is the real value of that site. Dr. A’s “insight”? Not so much. And then there’s the whole “I’m an indie music insider” thing, which is so annoying. You’re a white suburban kid who likes music, and your tastes are nowhere near as edgy as you think. You’re like plenty of your readers in that regard, but with more limited musical interests and worse taste. Band of Horses? Bet he’s a big Dave Matthews fan, too. But only of the early stuff, before Matthews sold out.
December 7th, 2007 at 12:39 pm
any thoughts on Gerald Wallace for Haywood?
December 7th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
ha, yeah, take that, ya stupid dr a!!
cm, are you talking about BRENDAN haywood? he’s nowhere near as good as gerald wallace.
December 7th, 2007 at 2:35 pm
The haywood for wallace trade was proposed in my H2H league. the question is whether it is fishy enough to veto…
December 7th, 2007 at 4:24 pm
I just checked basketballmonster and amazingly, the two guys are ranked closely in 9-cat leagues (Gerald has a pretty big advantage in 8-cat leagues). So I guess it’s possible a real newbie fantasy player who needed a C might make such a horrible trade.
Still, even though Crash has not been good so far this year the gap between the value of the two players is enormous. I think the guy trading for Haywood should have to explain his reasoning and if it sounds at all fishy, shoot it down. Normally I am against vetoing but if there is even a whiff of collusion, I endorse it.
December 8th, 2007 at 1:36 am
Thanks for the insight CN, as for Dirk for Jason Kidd, I think the trade works in your favor since you have a glutton of forward/centers and Dirk is actually performing more like a 2nd rounder this year and I’m not sure if he’ll get back to his definitive top 5-6 status and performance.
The obligatory disclaimer: I like Dirk as a fantasy player and I have him in one of my leagues as a centerpiece with Yao (10 team league) but his stats have gotten more boring in recent years since Avery Johnson became coach, Dirk’s been barely in the 1 3ptm/1 stl/1 blk club.
That’s a lot of rationalization for Dirk, but Jason Kidd sounds like he’ll help out your team. If it weren’t for Kidd’s FG and TOs this season, he’s more valuable than last as most of his other stats are from last season and Kidd is one of those unique killer fantasy players where you get crazy boards from a PG while also getting your 3’s, asts and steals.
My only fear is that Jason Kidd probably will have his assist and rebounding averages dip if he gets traded to Cleveland where LeBron’s going to act as a secondary playmaker that’ll cut into Kidd’s assists, and the frontcourt in Cleveland gobbles up rebounds. Kidd’s FG shooting and TOs would improve in that situation. Also a trade to the Lakers is going to inevitably cut into Kidd’s assists too (I hope I’m wrong) because the Triangle Offense never really needed a point guard with special passing abilities, just a big guard at the point.
Marko Jaric has more value than Jeff Green at this moment, but his value will probably be shortlived once Randy Foye returns. Either way, Green is still playing off the bench while Jaric is back on the court again nearly dropped a triple double the other night with 18/8/9 with 3 steals and a three pointer. Jaric has more value than Green at the moment and should be taken advantage of before Foye cuts into the backcourt and Jaric’s minutes.
January 9th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Hey guys, it’s your arch nemesis, Dr. A. Glad you guys like the news we/I compile for Rotoworld. Nice site you have here…Maybe I’ll start checking it out regularly…I don’t have a doctorate in anything, obviously, and am always looking for new info. As for my nickname, it started as a joke between me and a buddy when I started doing some news blurbs for free at RW about 7 years ago and just kinda stuck. Sorry if it rubs you the wrong way. Good luck.
Steve