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Young Bigs Update

Drafting centers is always one of the biggest dilemmas on draft day. It can make or break a season. I’d be loving my team right now if it wasn’t for my men in the middle – FT% killer Emeka Okafor and pansy-ass Mehmet Okur. Coming into this year’s draft there were a handful of intriguing young big men that had some risk attached to them. So how have they been faring so far? Let’s take a look.

LaMarcus Aldridge
Avg Draft Position: 61.5
Current Rank: 53
Stats: 18.7/7.7/0.8, 53.3% FG, 75.9% FT, 1.3 bpg, 0.7 spg, 34.3 mpg

If you reached for Aldridge in the late-third or early-fourth, as happened in our league, he’s been a slight disappointment. Otherwise, the second year, 22-year old has performed just as expected as the Blazers’ secondary offensive threat behind Brandon Roy. He’s learned how to play without fouling so much – his fouls per 48 are down to 4.8 from last year’s 6.4 – and last night’s overtime game against the Bucks was his first disqualification of the year. His blocks have been disappointing, averaging just 1.3 this season after averaging almost exactly the same in 12 fewer minutes last year. This could just be an early season blip, but Aldridge is also starting to look like a player in the Chris Bosh mold, and Bosh has always been serviceable but never dominant in blocks. His inside/outside game is greatly developed and shooting 53% on almost 15 attempts per game is quite a feat. More than half of his rebounds come on the offensive glass which means that he’s not the most fundamentally sound rebounder but has a knack for finding the ball. If he can improve on the defensive side he should have no problem reaching double digits soon. It will, of course, be interesting to see how life is next season with Greg Oden, but a string of 20/10 seasons seems very reasonable.

Andris Biedrins
Avg Draft Position: 74.1
Current Rank: 57
Stats: 11.0/10.0/1.5, 62.8% FG, 66.7% FT, 1.5 bpg, 0.6 spg, 29.2 mpg

Biedrins was nearly invisible in last night’s highly entertaining matchup with the Lakers but has proven to be a solid draft day value despite numbers that on the surface don’t look too fantastic. There’s reason to be worried since he’s topped 30 minutes just once in the last eight games after logging heavy minutes at the beginning of the season, but things change quickly when Don Nelson’s in charge. That nearly 63% from the field is what makes Biedrins so valuable but in a way it’s also what hinders him. Only Dwight Howard, Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire and Shaq help their teams more in the FG% category. But he simply has no offensive game of his own, almost all of his shots are layups or putbacks, and sometimes that handicap is too much for the Warriors trigger happy style. Biedrins went through similar stretches of inconsistent playing time last year and his owners have to hope that he’ll bounce back with some big-minute, 18-rebound games to make up for his recent downturn in minutes. Because of the Warriors pace, even 25 minutes is equivalent to around 30 minutes of action on other teams.

Andrew Bynum
Avg Draft Position: 100.3
Current Rank: 58
Stats: 10.9/9.7/1.5, 58.7% FG, 68.4% FT, 2.0 bpg, 0.5 spg, 26.1 mpg

Bynum certainly went a few rounds later than the two previously mentioned players but he’s right there with them in providing solid 5th round value so far. I owned Bynum for a stretch last year so I watched him play a lot and I was always very impressed. He had some of the same mental lapses and fatigue issues that plague young bigs, but his fundamentals were very solid and they are just getting better. He utilizes his long arms to great effect, on both ends of the floor. On offense, his high release is reminiscent of Rasheed Wallace’s, in that his shot is basically unblockable. His touch is improving mightily, too. On the defensive end, his blocks are straight out of the textbook – arms straight in the air, swatting away. Unlike, say, Josh Smith or Andray Blatche who rely on pure athletic freakishness for their highlight denials. Phil Jackson is still going to cause some frustration here, and while Kwame Brown and Chris Mihm both pretty much suck, they will still limit Bynum’s upside. He’s at just 26 mpg right now and while folks may look at his numbers and be begging to get that number up to the 32 range, he plays best in short stretches. Maybe the Lakers knew what they were doing all along by refusing to trade him. Out of all the guys on this list, he might be the one I’d rank highest if we’re talking about building a real NBA team.

Al Horford
Avg Draft Position: 121.3
Current Rank: 93
Stats: 8.8/10.8/1.1, 49.6% FG, 63.6% FT, 1.2 bpg, 1.0 spg, 32.6 mpg

He’s not putting up numbers of the above, and he’s actually older than Bynum, but Horford is showing tons of promise as a rookie. Granted, minutes have a lot to do with that – his 32.6 per game lead all rookies except for Kevin Durant – but it’s not like he’s not deserving. Horford has shown great energy and athleticism; Hawks former lottery pick Shelden Williams looks like he plays in slow motion compared to the rookie from Florida. His offensive game still needs refinement and there aren’t a ton of shots to go around with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith firing up at will, but Horford stays busy on the glass and in the passing lanes. He’s totaled a staggering 67 boards in his last five games and it looks like the Zaza Pachulia era is over in Atlanta. (What an era it was!) It’s too early to know for certain if Horford’s steals are for real or whether it’s just luck based on a small sample size. But if that skill is for real and he can be a 1.2 steals/1.5 blocks player, he’s going to be in the same discussion as the other young big men.

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5 Responses to “Young Bigs Update”

  1. Tim Says:

    What do you think Durant’s value is right now – I am thinking of trading J. Johnson for him (I am punting field % and TO so Durant is all upside for me0

  2. kwu Says:

    Horford’s play has been really surprising so far. on draft day i debated taking al thornton or horford in the 13th-14th round, ended up going with Thornton and look how that turned out.

  3. kwu Says:

    adding insult to injury was that i also drafted josh childress, who’s been pretty marginalized in the atlanta hawks offensive scheme. it goes Joe Johnson/Josh Smith, then Marvin Williams, then Al Horford. Childress is like the 5th or 6th option on that team.

  4. DM Says:

    I think you’d be lucky to get Durant for JJ right now. Johnson has been a disappointment, although I think he can turn it around. And whoever took Durant probably took him earlier than he should, so he’s not going to sell low on him, y’know?

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