Here at FBB Headquarters (Motto: Deliver Us From Hinrich), we are always wary of unexpected surges in blocks and steals.  Yeah, they’re great while they last, but odds are that in the long run, guys will eventually revert to their career numbers unless they are a) young, b) on a new team or c) putting together their games in other ways as well.

This year, there are a number of young, veteran big men who are putting up unexpectedly strong numbers in the blocks department.  Let’s spend a little time going through who’s improved, and more importantly, figure out why, and if we think they’re going to keep it up.

Andrew Bogut
Blocks last year: 0.5
Blocks this year: 2.2
What’s Changed: Well, not much in the big picture, really.  Bogut has been a mild disappointment overall and a significant disappointment in the blocks department for fantasy owners and his NBA team so far in his career. But an apparent devotion to defense and rebounding in the offseason has been getting a lot of credit for the turnaround.  This year, Bogut has posted multiple blocks in 12 of 19 games and has been a real pleasant suprise for owners expecting next to nothing in that category from the Aussie.  The Bucks are benefitting as well as their opponents’ PPG is down from 104 to 100.8.
What to Expect:  You know, all this talk about an offseason devotion to rebounding and defense sounds great, but my question is, what happened to the rebounding?  How can a guy spend all of his offseason on two things, and improve drastically in one while staying essentially the same in the other?  My fluke-o-meter is picking up strong signals from Bogut, as he’s essentially the same player he was his first two years in the league except for the shot-swatting.  My guess is, he’ll revert at least somewhat to form, and end the year in the 1-1.5 bpg range.

Chris Kaman
Blocks last year: 1.6
Blocks this year: 3.0
What’s Changed: Kaman has been playing with a chip on his shoulder ever since being turned down for the lead role in “Cavemen” this fall, and it hasn’t hurt matters that Elton Brand has gotten out of his way in the low post.  He’s been an absolute monster this year, with 18.5 points and 13.7 boards, and he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down.  Kaman has always been a decent shot blocker but his 3 per game, good for second in the league, is much more than anyone could have hoped for.
What to Expect: Kaman is about one year too late for a contract push, so I’m not sure where this is coming from.  I have a hard time believing that he’s this good just all of a sudden though, and that counts for the rebounds as much as the blocks.  Still, with Brand out, the Clippers are going to give him every opportunity to keep this going.  Lets assume that he’ll cool down eventually, but he should still b e a 2+ bpg kinda guy until and possibly after Brand returns.

Danny Granger
Blocks last year: 0.7
Blocks this year: 1.5
What’s Changed: Granger was a mild disappointment last year in the defensive categories.  After showing Rasheed Wallace-esque potential in his rookie season (i.e. at least one block, steal, and three), Granger got the 30+ minutes required by nearly every player in the league to have fantasy value, started shooting more from the outside … and saw his blocks and steals per minute drop significantly.  This year, though, the defensive stats are back in full force, and you have to think that new Pacers coach Jim O’Brien has something to do with it.  O’Brien is known for his wide-open, free-wheeling style and while we usually think about it having an effect on the offensive end, the fact is that it can affect how players perform on defense as well.  In fact, despite Jermaine O’Neal’s struggles, the Pacers as a team are swatting the same 5.5 shots per game as they did last year, meaning a lot of folks are stepping it up a little bit.
What to Expect:  I’d expect Granger to keep it up, or at least be close to this level of production for the rest of the year.  He showed in his rookie year that he was capable of being an effective shot-blocker, and after a swoon last year is putting together his abilities with his minutes and turning into a great fantasy player.  Enjoy it.