Fair Return?

A big deal just went down in our league. Carlos Boozer and Cuttino Mobley for Jason Terry and Ron Artest. On the surface it seems like a fairly standard 1 and 4 for 2 and 3 deal – one team getting the best and worst player, the other team getting the middle two players. But did the team trading Boozer really get a good enough return?

Boozer finished 20/31 on the player rater last year and was seen as a consensus third round pick. It was hard to see him improving much off last year’s numbers and he remained an injury risk in the eyes of most. But Boozer, like his teammate Deron Williams, has proven that last year was no fluke and he is a fantasy force to be reckoned with. As fantasy enthusiasts often do, we look for what’s wrong with a player’s game before we appreciate what’s right. Boozer is a center who doesn’t block shots. Never has, never will. In fact, the 0.6 per game he’s averaging this season would be one of the better marks of his career. So starting him at a center spot leaves you short in blocks. So what? The numbers don’t lie and right now Boozer is a Top 5 player. He and Dwight Howard are the premier anchors in FG%, offering value in that category equivalent to what Marcus Camby gives you in blocks. He’s a monster on the boards, averaging 11.7 per game for the second straight season. He’s upped his scoring to 25 ppg, held his assists at a very respectable 3.1 per game and is even chipping in an impressive 1.4 steals. He missed one game with a sprained ankle but returned the next night with 24/15 in 40 minutes, putting to rest any concerns that it would be a lingering problem. He’s been held under 17 points just once this season and has reached double digit boards in 19 of 24 games. Maybe he won’t finish the season in the Top 5, but it’s time to start treating Boozer as a premium fantasy player instead of merely a very good one.

So with that said, are Ron Artest and Jason Terry enough in return for him? I don’t really think it is. Artest has been his usual self since returning from a 7-game suspension to start the season, which is to say that he’d be really great if percentages didn’t count. Unfortunately, that’s not the case in most leagues and his 43% (on 16 shots per game) and 62% from the line (should improve slightly) do some serious damage. BV and I attended the Wizards/Kings game on Saturday night and Artest was almost an afterthought out there, he rarely made his presence felt. The Kings aren’t an all-out disaster, but that team is going nowhere this season and could be in for some upheaval. And when you’re dealing with Artest there’s always some risk involved, especially if there is a hint of instability with the team. He’s going to be great in the counting stats, as always, and is especially valuable to teams looking to make a run in steals, but he’s no fantasy superstar.

Same goes for Terry. He had a scorching hot beginning of the season but is now back to being Jason Terry which is fine, just fine. He’s averaging 17.4 ppg in 30 minutes as a sub but only 15.9 ppg in 37 minutes as a starter, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. His FG% remains stellar, he just isn’t looking for his shot as much lately, for whatever reason. It seems like every year we say that Terry is an undervalued fantasy property, and it was probably even more true this year since his average draft position was likely knocked down due to him starting the season coming off the bench. He’s currently at 24/41 for the season, but is #65 for the past month, which is about right for Terry.

Maybe the owner who traded Boozer picked the right time to sell high. There are some other factors involved that make the deal more sensible – this owner has been devastated by injuries and has used up fewer games than anyone in the league, meaning that getting two solid players helps him more than most teams since he has lots of games and ground to make up – but it still seems like he could have held out for more. Would you trade Yao Ming for Terry and Artest? Unlikely. But Boozer has proven to be on Yao’s level this season, if not above it, and it’s time to start recognizing that fact.

01
Mase
December 17th, 2007 9:42 am

I actually think it’s a pretty fair trade. Fair enough to not get vetoed. Boozer is a sell-high candidate on my list. I wouldn’t put Boozer in the same realm as Yao Ming, despite the fact that Boozer is currently averaged-ranked as a first rounder.

There are several reasons why I don’t think Boozer will maintain his current value. First he is not a shot-blocker. In fact, he doesn’t have any shot-blocking ability. A big man has to play very very well to be a first round player if they don’t shoot 3s or block shots.

Second, currently Boozer is averaging 1.4 steals per game, which is boosting his value. He’s had 3 games which ties his career highs in steals (4) this season. Prior to this year he’s only had two other games with 4 or more steals over the past 5 YEARS. I don’t see Boozer maintain his 1.4 steals average, and that will drop his value.

Third, Boozer’s freethrow % is on the decline. He started out the season around 80+% but has since gradually dropped. He will likely end up in the low 70%. This will hurt his value as well.

Another intangible factor that has nothing to do with stats is Utah has a terrible schedule towards the end of this year… including the fantasy playoffs. Utah has 14 games in the final 5 weeks (final 4 fantasy weeks since last 2 weeks are combined as one championship week). Compared to teams like the Miami Heat, which has 17 games during the same period, a guy like Udonis Haslem may seem like a much better deal than Boozer.

In a 12-player league, I’d put Boozer at 3rd round. I’d place Yao Ming at least one full round ahead of Boozer at low 1st round to early 2nd round. If Yao can cut down on his turnovers he can become a legitimate 1st rounder.

02
dave
December 17th, 2007 12:06 pm

I agree I think the trade makes sense, and not even based on the indepth analysis provided above, but the biggest thing I saw in that trade was that the one guy was way down in games. He recieved 2 legit fantasy players, for 1, because Mobley is barely ownable.
I’m not sure why guys think they should be allowed to veto a trade either based on “fairness”.

I just completed a trade and guys in my league were trying to veto it.

I got D Williams/Kapono/Webster
I gave M. Williams, T Outlaw, T Ford.

We play in daily rotation H2H league and the guy I traded with has Arenas, J Rich, Peja, and Rashard.

Honestly maybe I’m dreaming but on the surface I thought it was a fair trade, 3 guys that over the past month are around 70-80, for Deron and two Waiver wire guys. Even if you don’t think it is fair though, the guy I traded with has way to many 3 chuckers so he gets rid of 2 guys that there only value is 3’s (Kapono and Webster) & Since he has Arenas on the shelf for at least 2 more months he now has 3 viable players instead of 1. I think Deron’s value is entirely in his FG%, and with the roster he’s got he wasn’t winning that category, playing a man down he can also win TO’s easier and having Deron was not helping with that either.

So overall I thought it was a great trade, but had to try and convince everyone. There is no point trading a PF that has 20/9/2 line for another PF that has a 20/9/2 line, so trades will not always be comparable.

btw trade was eventually approved

03
don
December 17th, 2007 3:35 pm

in my league, i dealt boozer and jamison for bosh and bynum and people were up in arms saying i was getting ripped off. i desperately needed blocks. i feel fine with the deal. people do seem to value boozer very highly.

04
johan
December 17th, 2007 4:30 pm

i offered jermaine o’neal and richard jefferson for boozer, and got turned down. so i offered the same guys for chris bosh and the guy made the trade. i don’t think i got top value in the deal, but with rashard lewis, iguodala, caron butler, gasol, mo williams, andre miller, and rudy gay on my team, it didn’t matter: i got what i wanted, a top tier pf/c who i’m more confident in than jermaine. and more playing time for guys on my bench (beno udrih, namely) who get me things jefferson won’t.

Leave Your Comment

Name*
Mail*
Website
Comment