A big deal just went down in our league. Carlos Boozer and Cuttino Mobley for Jason Terry and Ron Artest. On the surface it seems like a fairly standard 1 and 4 for 2 and 3 deal – one team getting the best and worst player, the other team getting the middle two players. But did the team trading Boozer really get a good enough return?
Boozer finished 20/31 on the player rater last year and was seen as a consensus third round pick. It was hard to see him improving much off last year’s numbers and he remained an injury risk in the eyes of most. But Boozer, like his teammate Deron Williams, has proven that last year was no fluke and he is a fantasy force to be reckoned with. As fantasy enthusiasts often do, we look for what’s wrong with a player’s game before we appreciate what’s right. Boozer is a center who doesn’t block shots. Never has, never will. In fact, the 0.6 per game he’s averaging this season would be one of the better marks of his career. So starting him at a center spot leaves you short in blocks. So what? The numbers don’t lie and right now Boozer is a Top 5 player. He and Dwight Howard are the premier anchors in FG%, offering value in that category equivalent to what Marcus Camby gives you in blocks. He’s a monster on the boards, averaging 11.7 per game for the second straight season. He’s upped his scoring to 25 ppg, held his assists at a very respectable 3.1 per game and is even chipping in an impressive 1.4 steals. He missed one game with a sprained ankle but returned the next night with 24/15 in 40 minutes, putting to rest any concerns that it would be a lingering problem. He’s been held under 17 points just once this season and has reached double digit boards in 19 of 24 games. Maybe he won’t finish the season in the Top 5, but it’s time to start treating Boozer as a premium fantasy player instead of merely a very good one.
So with that said, are Ron Artest and Jason Terry enough in return for him? I don’t really think it is. Artest has been his usual self since returning from a 7-game suspension to start the season, which is to say that he’d be really great if percentages didn’t count. Unfortunately, that’s not the case in most leagues and his 43% (on 16 shots per game) and 62% from the line (should improve slightly) do some serious damage. BV and I attended the Wizards/Kings game on Saturday night and Artest was almost an afterthought out there, he rarely made his presence felt. The Kings aren’t an all-out disaster, but that team is going nowhere this season and could be in for some upheaval. And when you’re dealing with Artest there’s always some risk involved, especially if there is a hint of instability with the team. He’s going to be great in the counting stats, as always, and is especially valuable to teams looking to make a run in steals, but he’s no fantasy superstar.
Same goes for Terry. He had a scorching hot beginning of the season but is now back to being Jason Terry which is fine, just fine. He’s averaging 17.4 ppg in 30 minutes as a sub but only 15.9 ppg in 37 minutes as a starter, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. His FG% remains stellar, he just isn’t looking for his shot as much lately, for whatever reason. It seems like every year we say that Terry is an undervalued fantasy property, and it was probably even more true this year since his average draft position was likely knocked down due to him starting the season coming off the bench. He’s currently at 24/41 for the season, but is #65 for the past month, which is about right for Terry.
Maybe the owner who traded Boozer picked the right time to sell high. There are some other factors involved that make the deal more sensible – this owner has been devastated by injuries and has used up fewer games than anyone in the league, meaning that getting two solid players helps him more than most teams since he has lots of games and ground to make up – but it still seems like he could have held out for more. Would you trade Yao Ming for Terry and Artest? Unlikely. But Boozer has proven to be on Yao’s level this season, if not above it, and it’s time to start recognizing that fact.