Archive for December, 2007
Beyond the Big Three

With all the attention being paid to Boston’s new Holy Trinity of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce out in Boston, it’s easy to think that the story stops there.  But hey, you gotta play 5 guys at a time, and so there are other guys on the Celtics who might be putting together some value.  What’s more, should any of the three go down, there will be plenty of value to be had by others on the team.  So, I thought it would be worth checking in on the other guys in Boston to see how they’re progressing this year.

Rajon Rondo
After the big three, it was likely that Rondo was the next Celtic to be taken in your draft.  And with good reason - he’s the starting point guard, he was in line for plenty of minutes, and he looked like he could dominate in steals while providing nice assist and rebounding numbers for a PG.  All he needed to do to become a real fantasy force was work on his jumper which is awful beyond words.  And while he is definitely shooting better, every other part of his game is disappointing so far.

Of course, a lot of this we could have seen coming.  The steals are down, but that makes sense - when your team is playing for the lottery, like the Celtics were last year, you can freestyle more often on defense, which leads to more steals.  On a team playing for a championship squad like the Celtics this year, Rondo isn’t able to take as many chances and so his per-minute steals are down accordingly.  The per-minute rebounding isn’t as strong as last year either, as KG, Pierce and Allen are pulling down about half of the team’s total rebounds.  To make matters worse, his FT% has somehow dipped to a Ben Wallace-like 48%, but that’s not really a big deal since he only gets to the line twice a game.

If there’s one spot that the Celtics are likely to upgrade their team throughout the year, it’s gotta be at PG, where Rondo clearly isn’t what their looking for.  They’re better off with a veteran decision maker who can make a jump shot every once in awhile.  Rondo is really none of those things.  To me, this is a sell-fake-low opportunity if you can find someone who thinks Rondo will live up to whatever potential people saw in him last year.

Kendrick Perkins
Perkins has shown flashes and has done everything the Celtics could really ask of him.  He’s a high-percentage scoring option on the blocks who does most of his damage off of the offensive boards (evidenced by his 24 OREB’s and 44 FG’s on the season), he’s a decent rebounder, and he’s an effective shot blocker.  But a fantasy-viable center?  Well … maybe.  He’s certainly not going to set the world on fire, but there’s something to be said for consistency.  Only once this year has Perkins has zero blocks AND fewer than five rebounds, and only twice has he shot under 50% from the field.  He’s not a great FT% guy, but he’s OK for a center.

Guys like this absolutely have a role on fantasy teams as a C3 or C4 to stash on your bench and use as an injury replacement.  As we’ve learned the last few years, it’s virtually impossible to cash in on unused games at the end of the season.  So why not fill up unused C games with Perkins, who will at least do something positive for you, with little down side?

Eddie House
House, he is what he is.  Nobody wants him now, but come March, if you’re looking for threes, go and get him. But he doesn’t do enough of anything else to really be of use now.

James Posey
You know, if my fantasy team wasn’t an absolute mess and I had room on my bench to stash a player away, I think Posey would be pretty high on my list of guys to stash.  Why?  A few reasons - one, if any of the big three goes down, Posey is the guy who is first in line for more minutes and a bigger role in the offense.  Two, he’s exactly the kind of guy the Celtics are going to depend on come playoff time - a tested veteran who’s won in the postseason before.  Three, when he does get the minutes, he’s pretty effective as a source of threes, steals and rebounds.  Finally, even if no one does get hurt, there’s still the chance that the big three start to see their minutes cut a bit, and Posey would be a big benefactor there, as well.  He’s a nice guy to hold onto if you’ve got the space.

Head-to-Head’s Up 12/3-12/9

Let’s look ahead to week 12/3-12/9 in the NBA:

Four games: Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Golden State, LA Clippers, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Toronto, Utah.

Three Games: Boston, Cleveland, Denver, Houston, LA Lakers, Minnesota, New Orleans, New York, Portland, Sacramento, Seattle, Washington.

Two Games: Indiana, Orlando, San Antonio.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Antonio McDyess, PF: Averaging 16/8/3 since returning from injury, Dice is having his best season since 2000-’01 in Denver. Of course he’ll never match his glory days as a Nugget, but the big man is proving to be more resilient than some other veterans like Shareef Abdur-Rahim. He’s being asked to start and play 30+ minutes for the first time in a long while, and he’s responded quite well. His 59% shooting from the floor is probably his strongest asset right now and the Pistons got a full schedule coming up. Don’t hesitate… feel free to roll the dice.

Ricky Davis, G: I think BV won the Ricky Davis lovefest award before the season started and his expectations remained high even after Davis was traded to the Heat. Now he’s not exactly having a career year in his new digs, but he is posting a solid 15/4/3 with 1.8 threes and a theft per game. There is some concern since he returned to the bench earlier this week, but he should continue to see around 30 mpg. Plus, as a reserve he becomes the #1 scoring option when Wade and Shaq aren’t on the floor. His numbers may be a bit more volatile going forward, but he’s still a guy you should keep in your lineup, especially with four games on tap.

Andrew Bogut, C: His overall numbers look nearly identical to last season, but the former #1 overall pick is still showing signs of improvement. Look specifically at his impressive 2.3 blocks per game this year. That number is particularly striking considering it’s a jump from 0.5 bpg in ’06-’07 and it’s certainly enough to catapult him up a full tier among the Center rankings.  Let’s hope he keeps up his defensive prowess and posts some solid numbers with four games this week.

Juan Carlos Navarro, G: What’s with the Spanish point guards lately? J.C. has started four straight games and is averaging 19/4/3 with 3 treys and stellar shooting over that stretch. La Bomba not only has a sweet a nickname, but he’s also an intimidating presence in a leather jacket. As long as Pau’s homeboy is starting for the Grizz he should be starting for your squad. Get him in your lineup for four matchups this week.

Derek Fisher, PG: Yes, he actually is a decent option in deeper leagues. Before last night’s blowout at Utah, Fisher had posted 6 straight games scoring in double figures. He’s got a very fixed ceiling, so he’s not someone who can save your season or even your week, but he makes for a respectable flex start.

Sebastian Telfair, PG: I was going to recommend keeping Marko Jaric in your lineups not only because of his solid play as of late, but more so because of his smokin’ hot new girlfriend, Victoria Secret model Adriana Lima. Yes, Mark Madsen and Antoine Walker credit Ms. Lima for inspiring Jaric’s recent success, but I say you gotta give Marko his due props (for landing the righteous babe of course). I mean seriously. Ok sorry, back to basketball… Jaric unfortunately left Friday’s game in the first quarter with a sprained ankle. With Foye already sidelined, and McCants sitting out with a bum knee, that leaves Telfair as the only healthy PG on the Wolves roster. I’m not necessarily endorsing Bassy, I’m just saying he’ll be seeing a lot of minutes this week.

Please have a seat:

Mehmet Okur FC: Sure, Utah plays four games next week, but lets take a closer look at the Thundering Turk. He’s currently shooting a career low 38.4 % from the field, and averaging 4 year lows in points (11.9) and rebounds (5.1). Back spasms forced him out of Wednesday night’s game and he sat last night, so there’s some questions about his health as well. If Okur misses any more time, Paul Millsap (20 pts, 9 boards) obviously becomes a nice fill-in who can actually crash the boards.