At this point in the season it is pretty vital to stay sharp in watching the injuries and transactions that go down in the league. Making the right roster moves at this point can set you up for long term success riding into the fantasy playoffs. A few examples:

Randy Foye:
Tonight Foye made his season debut against Chicago and, while he didn’t set the world on fire, showed a very promising return for the second year player. He put up 11 points on 4/8 shooting and included a 3PTM. It’ll be interesting to see how the playing time shakes out once Foye returns to full game form. However, Minnesota intends to build around Al Jefferson and Foye, and his development will take precedence over providing PT for the likes of Sebastian Telfair, Rashad McCants or especially Marko Jaric. I fully expect him to finish out the year strong with numbers similar to what he produced in April of last season: 15/4/4 with 1 STL and 1+ 3PTM.

Elton Brand:
In the last 24 hours, both Brand and Foye have been picked up in both of my leagues. At this point it’s unsure how fast Brand will exactly return, but he’s been cleared to participate in full running and jumping exercises, and upon hearing the news Brand immediately went to work out. It seems that Elton has been missing the court, and even if he doesn’t come back at 100%, he’ll be a significant fantasy force. He rated out at #6 overall on the average player rater last season and is a huge wildcard. For those in H2H leagues, it might not be too early to stash him on your bench. Chris Kaman owners beware of the trickle down impacts that will be felt when Brand finally makes it back to the court and starts to get his share of the points and boards from Kaman.

(Potential) Trade Fallout:
Anyone else hear about Jason Kidd’s trade demands? This could really shake up the roster on a couple of NBA teams, and bring certain players both into and out of fantasy significance. More than anyone else, keep Marcus Williams on your watch list, as when Kidd goes out it’s likely he’ll get the starting nod and put up great numbers (as Point Guards tend to do). Teams including Dallas and Portland have been linked as potential trade partners, and it’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Other Notes:
Kareem Rush came off the bench today, which may not be a great sign; he is somewhat injured and his shot struggled in the last few games and was replaced in the Pacer’s starting lineup by Travis Diener, who put up 18 points tonight. A good example of what playing time does for good, young reserve players…look no further than Leon Powe or fantasy tease Andray Blatche. Powe filled in for an injured KG and responded with career highs of 25 and 11, while Blatche went off for 19/8 while achieving the coveted 1/1/1 blocks, steals and 3PTM stat line. Chris Webber signed with the Golden State Warriors today; it’s uncertain how he’ll respond to Nellie Ball, but it’s possible he could supplant Al Harrington in the starting lineup. Webber probably won’t create as much fantasy value for himself as he might steal numbers from Harrington and Andris Biedrins.

Hey everyone. First off, I want to address the issue with the site not being updated very frequently over the course of the last couple of weeks. Pretty much, we all happened to get quite busy at the same time with work, school and other obligations. But hopefully we’ll be back on track soon with the regular daily updates. Now onto the fantasy game:

Kareem Rush, SG:
STAT: Averaging 16 PPG on 47% FG w/ 2.8 3PTM and 1 STL in six January starts.
Rush has been playing great since entering the starting lineup, where he is averaging more than 30 minutes per game. The Pacers have decided to go small and start Danny Granger at the 4, as Rush has been in the starting lineup along the side of O’Neal, Murphy and Foster all in the center role, so it seems that his role is unlikely to change. Looking at his career numbers it is unlikely that he will continue shooting at the same accuracy, but with JO contemplating shutting it down for the season and Marquis Daniels struggling with injuries, Rush is a good bet so ride him while he’s hot.

Gilbert Arenas, PG:
Why would we even be talking about this guy? Well, news indicates that he may return to the lineup sometime soon after the All-Star break, about one month ahead of schedule. If you’re in a league where Arenas was dropped, then it might be time to think about picking him up and stashing him away. Even if he’s not 100%, the Hibachi will make a fantasy impact and can be the playoff push needed for those in H2H leagues.

Linas Kleiza, SF:
The man who poured in a 41-point performance only last week may get an extended chance to hoist up shots and show what kind of a player he is. Looking at his stats, it is clear that whenever he gets 30+ minutes he puts up numbers of fantasy value. Though he recently started in place of Kenyon Martin, he’ll now fill-in for the injured Carmelo Anthony. Kleiza is a good source of points, threes, and boards while keeping decent percentages, and he’s another guy who should be picked up in a hurry to capitalize on his potential.

Jordan Farmar, PG:
I usually subscribe to the doctrine that players coming off their team’s bench shouldn’t be on a fantasy roster (with the obvious exceptions like Manu Ginobli, Ben Gordon and Travis Outlaw). However, the former UCLA Bruin has been playing excellent ball lately while helping his team win eight of the last nine games. In January, Farmar has averaged 21 minutes and contributed 12.4 PPG with about 2 3PTM, 1.5 STL and 3 ASTs per contest. Very cautiously, if you are in the need of PG help or 3PTM, then he is someone to consider and is someone that is showing signs of great fantasy value in the future.

Thabo Sefolosha, GF:
One of the guys who has been buried in the Bull’s guard rotation is Sefolosha, who has shown signs of being a very good player. More than anything else, he gives the Bull’s a defensive specialist, which unfortunately doesn’t always translate to the fantasy game as much as it probably should. Although he has been somewhat inconsistent, since entering the starting lineup he has averaged 10 PPG, 6 Rebs, and 2 STLs per game in 30 minutes. Furthermore, he’s contributed decent percentages and will add an occasional three-pointer. He might not be ready to pick up quite yet, but if you have a bench spot to hold onto someone who could develop fantasy value, look no further than my man Thabo Sefolosha.

Here’s a look at a busy week in the NBA 1/21-1/27.

Five games: Milwaukee.

Four games: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Indiana, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Memphis, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Orleans, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, San Antonio, Seattle, Washington.

Three games: Detroit, Golden State, Miami, New York, Utah.

Two games: Toronto.
 
Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Travis Outlaw, F:
STAT: 16/6/2, 50%FG, over his last eight games.
He has yet to start a game for the Blazers this season, but Outlaw is posting numbers worthy of just about any fantasy lineup right now. He contributes across the board and is inching closer and closer to that sought after 1/1/1 three/steal/block threshold. The fifth year vet is a top candidate for the league’s sixth man of the year award and is outperforming perennial fantasy favorites like Tayshaun Prince and Josh Childress. Get the Outlaw in your lineups for four matchups this week.

DeShawn Stevenson, SG:
STAT: Until Friday he had drained at least 1 three in 18 consecutive games.
With increased minutes, Stevenson is averaging nearly 2 treys and 1.1 thefts over the last six weeks. He’s inconsistent but tends to go on hot streaks (see his 5-game stretch with 20 threes in December), which can give your fantasy squad a big boost any given week. The Wizards have four games on tap, making Stevenson a solid utility play this week.

Troy Murphy, FC:
FACT: Jermaine O’Neal will be sidelined for at least another two weeks.
O’Neal appears to be the new Marcus Camby… injured more often than not.  Murphy, known for his rebounding prowess, now fills in upfront for the Pacers. In and out of the starting lineup, the veteran big man has been anything but consistent this season. He now has, not only the opportunity, but the responsibility to step up and fill in the stat sheet with O’Neal sidelined for the foreseeable future. Who knows, J.O. may be facing another knee surgery which could knock him out for the season. If T-Murph is available in your league, go pick him up now. He may even be a decent buy-low candidate if you’re feeling lucky. Either way, get the former Irishman in your lineup as Indiana has a full schedule coming up.

Wally Szczerbiak, GF:
STAT: 17 ppg on 53% shooting in January.
Wally World has been putting up numbers similar to those of, rookie-of-the-year favorite, Kevin Durant lately. Trade talks involving Szczerbiak could be reason for his inspired play… rumors out this weekend have Wally and Earl Watson packing their bags for sunny Miami in exchange for Jason Williams, Dorrell Wright, and Ricky Davis. But those are just that… rumors. In the meantime, you should take advantage of the hot hand with four games this week.

Mike Bibby, PG:
FACT: Bibby is back.
He finally made his season debut last week, and has been impressive off the bench in his first three games back. Bibby will be eased back into the starting lineup this week, but he’s already seeing around 30 minutes a game. A pretty big disappointment last season, now healthy, Bibby has a chance to return to form (perhaps be traded) and redeem himself in fantasy land. Sactown’s got four games coming up… plug him in.

Please have a seat:

John Salmons, GF and Francisco Garcia, GF:
FACT: Bibby, Martin, Artest, and Miller are all healthy and playing well.
Salmons and Garcia’s fantasy value plummets just as quickly as it had ascended. Garcia has already returned to the bench, and while Salmons remains in the starting lineup, his minutes are obviously getting cut back and he is now the Kings’ 4th scoring option, at best.
 

In fantasy basketball, it’s not what you’ve done for me all year – it’s not even what you’ve done for me lately.  It’s what I think you’re going to do for me tomorrow.  Every month, as I put together my New! Updated! Top 20! column, I’ve got to look at names at the top of the APR that don’t look like they belong, and that’s the question I have to ask myself – even more than what they did last month, what can I expect them to do next month?  Right now we’ve got a couple of guys who are experiencing breakout years, and while they might not qualify for Top 20 consideration (though at least 1 or 2 of these guys do), let’s at least discuss them a little in depth and see if we think we can trust them to keep up their efforts.

Chris Kaman - I think that any draft-steal, breakout-player conversation has to start with Kaman, who’s been playing completely out of his mind all year.  Not only that, but it seems fairly sustainable.  He really dipped in production last year, but if you account for his hamstring issues that he fought all season, his 18.59 PER for this year is actually fairly reasonable.  He’s not shooting an un-typically high percentage, and a lot of his statistical surge can be chalked up to his additional minutes, which I don’t see dropping any time soon.  To me, the concern isn’t so much with Kaman as it is with his teammates – he’s averaged under 10 shots per game over his last three, and there’s concern that he’s not vocal enough to demand the ball when he’s not seeing enough touches.  I don’t think that’s an issue – Coach Mike Dunleavy has been a big supporter and I think if this keeps up Dunleavy will see to it that Kaman gets his shots.  There will be a touch of sell-high fever if this keeps up another game or two, and I think you might be able to grab Kaman at a discount if you time it right.  He’s definitely trustable at around 4th round value right now, and could be worth 2nd or 3rd round consideration in the right circumstances.

Hedo Tukoglu – Pretty funny how the Magic went out and spent a kajillion dollars on the real Rashard Lewis, when really they had their own version on their team the whole time.  Turkoglu, like Kaman, had a disappointing year last year which makes his improvement all the more staggering.  Also like Kaman, Turkoglu has really seen the benefit of more playing time, and that’s been the real cause for his breakout season.  But there are other, subtler things going on as well, like his greater involvement in the offense – Turkoglu is still primarily a jump shooter, but he’s taking more jump shots than ever before, and because he’s always been a decent percentage guy, this has been only good news for his owners.  The problem for Turkoglu is that he’s got much more of a history than Kaman, and he’s much older – at 28 years old, the improvement is much less likely to last. While he’s definitely improved his value this year, his 27 spot on the APR is somewhere between way too high and a little too high – I’d have trouble convincing myself he’s got anything better than 5th round value right now, and even if he keeps this up all year I still wouldn’t touch him before the 4th next year.

Rudy Gay - Now this is the kind of breakout season we all can enjoy.  There are virtually no red flags here – the kid is only 21 years old, he’s in his second year, he showed plenty of promise last year, it’s his first shot at consistent starter’s minutes, and he’s making the most of them.  In fact, pretty much the only bad thing you can say about him is that even though his stats are so good, his team still stinks – but there are plenty of others to shoulder that blame (Pau Gasol, anyone?).  Yes the jump seems a little severe at first glance, but when you split last year in half and look at his progression from pre-All Star break to post-break to this year as three pieces, it looks very reasonable.  The only question at this point is, how much can he improve now?  HIs stats have been slowly improving month-to-month even, and at this rate he could be putting up 25/8 by April with big numbers in threes and steals.  Right now he’s at 33 on the APR and I think that’s actually pretty accurate as far as his overall value goes too, but I’d bet you can probably get him a little cheaper than that.

Brad Miller – This one really only makes a little bit of sense.  Like Kaman and Turkoglu, Miller struggled through injuries last year which deflated his numbers across the board, but he also is older than both of them at 31 and has quite a bit of mileage on him.  He looked to be left for dead by the end of last year and there wasn’t much reason to think he’d be any better than a C2 for the rest of his career.  This year, though, has been a nice mini-resurgence as he’s gone back to being an asset pretty much across the board.  With pretty much the entire Kings starting lineup injured, Miller’s returned as a fantasy force.  It’s not like his per-minute numbers ever took too big of a hit – it was his minutes more than anything that suffered last year.  The issues for Miller are two – limited upside and lingering injury risk.  I guess you could say there are three risks as there’s always the possibility that the Kings throw in the towel on the season and throw Spencer Hawes to the wolves (not the T-Wolves, the actual wolves), but I don’t think that’s really a possibility as that approach doesn’t work to well for young bigs – it usually damages their confidence more than anything else.  But the lack of upside and injury risk are very real for Miller, and that will keep him at probably around a 7th round value or so rather than at the 5th round, where he’s playing right now.

Here’s a look at the NBA week 1/7-1/13.

Four games: Charlotte, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LA Lakers, Memphis, Milwaukee, New York, Orlando, Phoenix.

Three Games: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Sacramento, San Antonio, Seattle, Toronto, Utah, Washington.

Two Games: Denver, LA Clippers, Portland.
 
Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:

Mike Conley, Jr., G: Deemed the most NBA-ready point guard in last year’s draft, Conley has struggled with injuries and limited playing time in his rookie year. At one point earlier in the season, the 4th overall pick, appeared to be fourth on the Grizzlies’ depth chart behind Damon Stoudamire, Kyle Lowry, and Juan Carlos Navarro. With the New Year comes change and new hope for the former Ohio State standout. 13-year veteran Stoudamire hasn’t seen any game action since December and is now demanding a trade. Lowry and J.C. Navarro have struggled and seen their minutes reduced lately, ergo Conley was recently inserted into Memphis’ starting lineup for the first time this season. 9/4/6 with 2 steals are his averages in his first two starts, but more importantly he’s seen a healthy 35 minutes in each game. Memphis has a full schedule this week, so get him in your lineup and you may not look back the rest of the season.

Chris Quinn, G: Oft-injured Jason Williams has missed 5 straight games with a sprained knee, which apparently isn’t getting better anytime soon. Dwayne Wade is also nicked up and could miss some time. Second-year guard, Chris Quinn will get the start at the point and should see plenty of minutes for the foreseeable future.  Averaging 11/3/6 with 1 theft and 1.5 threes in two starts this month, the undrafted Irishman looks to make a fantasy splash this week.

Nate Robinson, G: The 2006 NBA Slam Dunk champ is averaging 17/4/2 with 2.3 treys over his last six games with increased playing time in New York. The Knicks are 0-6 over that stretch, but that’s not a major concern since we are only interested in fantasy performance… Plus, they’re the Knicks. Stephon Marbury has returned to action after missing several games since his father passed, but Big Nate is still seeing solid minutes. Robinson is a safe play as the Knicks hit the hardwood four times this week.

Antonio Daniels, PG: Returning from a sprained knee ligament earlier than expected, Daniels has posted 16/3/4 with a three and solid shooting in his first two games of the new year. Roger Mason returns to his reserve role, and Daniels is back in the driver’s seat in D.C. With Gilbert Arenas out indefinitely, Daniels is a decent PG2 and solid utility guy. Get him back in your lineups for three matchups this week.

Kurt Thomas, FC: Not a particularly exciting player, but Thomas can help a team in need of rebounds and blocks. He’s posted double digit rebounds in five straight contests and swats at least one shot a night. Plus, fellow frontcourt mate, Chris Wilcox is hurting which should open up some more playing time for Thomas this week. For those of you scrounging around for a C2 or utility player to plug in this week, the veteran big man is a decent option.

I like talking about rookies because they’re the biggest wild card every year.  With veterans, you pretty much know what you’re going to get outside of the minutes, but rookies and young guys can improve dramatically during the year and their value can change a lot from December to March.

There are a couple of factors, though, that can work against rookies as they work their way through their first NBA year as well.  Not every rookie is going to have better value as the year goes on.  One major issue is the stamina issues that rooks have as they go through their first NBA season.  This doesn’t rear it’s head all that often, especially as basketball has been pretty much a year-round sport for these guys since they were in their early teens, but it’s still worth considering.

The other thing to think about is what kind of a team the player is on.  If they’re on a contending squad, they might find themselves on the outside looking in as coaches tighten their lineups for the playoff push.  A good example is a guy like Nick Young, the rookie shooting guard for the Wizards.  He’s shown flashes of fantasy value with his knack for scoring and his long-range shooting, but once March and April come around, Wizards coach Eddie Jordan will likely tighten his lineup and stick with his veterans, unless Young makes an unbelievable improvement in his game.  It’s not that these rookies aren’t good enough to play late in the year, but rather the coaches just like to go with guys who have experience when the stakes are high.

On the other end of the spectrum are guys on non-contending teams.  A good example of this is a guy like Mike Conley, Jr., who hasn’t been on the fantasy spectrum at all this year – due to injuries, sure, but also he’s struggled to get past Damon Stoudamire and Kyle Lowry on the depth chart – but could definitely be handed the keys to the team come March and be a Top-15 point guard over the last month of the season.  So with this in mind, let’s discuss a few guys and see if they might have a lot more value or a lot less come the end of the year:

Sean Williams, NJ – Williams is one of the biggest wild cards out there right now.  On the plus side, he’s an incredible shot-blocker and can pick up points and boards in bunches.  Also on the plus side, he’s been starting for six games in a row and while the results have been mixed, they’re been more positive than negative.  But there’s just so much uncertainty right now in New Jersey that you really can’t say with any certainty what he’ll be doing come March.  If the Nets decide to start over and dump Jason Kidd, then Williams should be playing major minutes down the stretch.  If they decide to give it another shot, Williams’ inconsistent play could force him back to the bench come spring.  And that’s without even considering the possible return of Nenad Krstic, and what that will do to the rotation.  Williams’ high-risk, high-reward value (both in the short and long terms) mean he should probably be on a team at the bottom of the standings that is willing to take that risk to get back in the race.

Yi Jianlian, Mil – Yi has been one of the nicest surprises we’ve seen this year, putting up decent if not spectacular numbers, and he’s really playing well lately – he followed up his huge, 29/10 performance with a couple more nice double-digit scoring games and he’s shooting pretty well from the field.  I would expect things to only get better for Yi as the year goes on.  Not only are the Bucks a pretty weak contender for the playoffs, meaning Yi won’t be subject to any rotation-tightening, but he’s not likely to suffer from any fatigue issues either.  The last Chinese player to make the move to the NBA like this, Yao Ming, improved nicely in the second half of his rookie campaign and I’d like to think that Yi can do the same.  If he’s on you waive wire, I’d grab him for sure, and he might even be worth targeting if his owners are worried that he’s just on a hot streak.  I’d look for numbers close to 15/8 after the All-Star break.

Al Horford, Atl – I drafted Horford late this year and I couldn’t be happier with the results, and I’d imagine other Horford owners feel the same way.  Unfortunately, I’m a little worried about how he’s going to do down the stretch.  Horford spend the majority of his time battling down in the paint, and that can wear against a player a lot more than those that spend their time hanging out around the perimiter.  I’m not too worried about his minutes, as he’s clearly outplaying his competition in Atlanta, but the wear and tear of the NBA season could be pretty tough on his fantasy value, which isn’t exactly spectacular.  If you can find an owner out there who thinks that Horford will improve over the rest of the year, I’d think about moving him for ther right price.