I like talking about rookies because they’re the biggest wild card every year.  With veterans, you pretty much know what you’re going to get outside of the minutes, but rookies and young guys can improve dramatically during the year and their value can change a lot from December to March.

There are a couple of factors, though, that can work against rookies as they work their way through their first NBA year as well.  Not every rookie is going to have better value as the year goes on.  One major issue is the stamina issues that rooks have as they go through their first NBA season.  This doesn’t rear it’s head all that often, especially as basketball has been pretty much a year-round sport for these guys since they were in their early teens, but it’s still worth considering.

The other thing to think about is what kind of a team the player is on.  If they’re on a contending squad, they might find themselves on the outside looking in as coaches tighten their lineups for the playoff push.  A good example is a guy like Nick Young, the rookie shooting guard for the Wizards.  He’s shown flashes of fantasy value with his knack for scoring and his long-range shooting, but once March and April come around, Wizards coach Eddie Jordan will likely tighten his lineup and stick with his veterans, unless Young makes an unbelievable improvement in his game.  It’s not that these rookies aren’t good enough to play late in the year, but rather the coaches just like to go with guys who have experience when the stakes are high.

On the other end of the spectrum are guys on non-contending teams.  A good example of this is a guy like Mike Conley, Jr., who hasn’t been on the fantasy spectrum at all this year - due to injuries, sure, but also he’s struggled to get past Damon Stoudamire and Kyle Lowry on the depth chart - but could definitely be handed the keys to the team come March and be a Top-15 point guard over the last month of the season.  So with this in mind, let’s discuss a few guys and see if they might have a lot more value or a lot less come the end of the year:

Sean Williams, NJ - Williams is one of the biggest wild cards out there right now.  On the plus side, he’s an incredible shot-blocker and can pick up points and boards in bunches.  Also on the plus side, he’s been starting for six games in a row and while the results have been mixed, they’re been more positive than negative.  But there’s just so much uncertainty right now in New Jersey that you really can’t say with any certainty what he’ll be doing come March.  If the Nets decide to start over and dump Jason Kidd, then Williams should be playing major minutes down the stretch.  If they decide to give it another shot, Williams’ inconsistent play could force him back to the bench come spring.  And that’s without even considering the possible return of Nenad Krstic, and what that will do to the rotation.  Williams’ high-risk, high-reward value (both in the short and long terms) mean he should probably be on a team at the bottom of the standings that is willing to take that risk to get back in the race.

Yi Jianlian, Mil - Yi has been one of the nicest surprises we’ve seen this year, putting up decent if not spectacular numbers, and he’s really playing well lately - he followed up his huge, 29/10 performance with a couple more nice double-digit scoring games and he’s shooting pretty well from the field.  I would expect things to only get better for Yi as the year goes on.  Not only are the Bucks a pretty weak contender for the playoffs, meaning Yi won’t be subject to any rotation-tightening, but he’s not likely to suffer from any fatigue issues either.  The last Chinese player to make the move to the NBA like this, Yao Ming, improved nicely in the second half of his rookie campaign and I’d like to think that Yi can do the same.  If he’s on you waive wire, I’d grab him for sure, and he might even be worth targeting if his owners are worried that he’s just on a hot streak.  I’d look for numbers close to 15/8 after the All-Star break.

Al Horford, Atl - I drafted Horford late this year and I couldn’t be happier with the results, and I’d imagine other Horford owners feel the same way.  Unfortunately, I’m a little worried about how he’s going to do down the stretch.  Horford spend the majority of his time battling down in the paint, and that can wear against a player a lot more than those that spend their time hanging out around the perimiter.  I’m not too worried about his minutes, as he’s clearly outplaying his competition in Atlanta, but the wear and tear of the NBA season could be pretty tough on his fantasy value, which isn’t exactly spectacular.  If you can find an owner out there who thinks that Horford will improve over the rest of the year, I’d think about moving him for ther right price.