In fantasy basketball, it’s not what you’ve done for me all year - it’s not even what you’ve done for me lately. It’s what I think you’re going to do for me tomorrow. Every month, as I put together my New! Updated! Top 20! column, I’ve got to look at names at the top of the APR that don’t look like they belong, and that’s the question I have to ask myself - even more than what they did last month, what can I expect them to do next month? Right now we’ve got a couple of guys who are experiencing breakout years, and while they might not qualify for Top 20 consideration (though at least 1 or 2 of these guys do), let’s at least discuss them a little in depth and see if we think we can trust them to keep up their efforts.
Chris Kaman - I think that any draft-steal, breakout-player conversation has to start with Kaman, who’s been playing completely out of his mind all year. Not only that, but it seems fairly sustainable. He really dipped in production last year, but if you account for his hamstring issues that he fought all season, his 18.59 PER for this year is actually fairly reasonable. He’s not shooting an un-typically high percentage, and a lot of his statistical surge can be chalked up to his additional minutes, which I don’t see dropping any time soon. To me, the concern isn’t so much with Kaman as it is with his teammates - he’s averaged under 10 shots per game over his last three, and there’s concern that he’s not vocal enough to demand the ball when he’s not seeing enough touches. I don’t think that’s an issue - Coach Mike Dunleavy has been a big supporter and I think if this keeps up Dunleavy will see to it that Kaman gets his shots. There will be a touch of sell-high fever if this keeps up another game or two, and I think you might be able to grab Kaman at a discount if you time it right. He’s definitely trustable at around 4th round value right now, and could be worth 2nd or 3rd round consideration in the right circumstances.
Hedo Tukoglu - Pretty funny how the Magic went out and spent a kajillion dollars on the real Rashard Lewis, when really they had their own version on their team the whole time. Turkoglu, like Kaman, had a disappointing year last year which makes his improvement all the more staggering. Also like Kaman, Turkoglu has really seen the benefit of more playing time, and that’s been the real cause for his breakout season. But there are other, subtler things going on as well, like his greater involvement in the offense - Turkoglu is still primarily a jump shooter, but he’s taking more jump shots than ever before, and because he’s always been a decent percentage guy, this has been only good news for his owners. The problem for Turkoglu is that he’s got much more of a history than Kaman, and he’s much older - at 28 years old, the improvement is much less likely to last. While he’s definitely improved his value this year, his 27 spot on the APR is somewhere between way too high and a little too high - I’d have trouble convincing myself he’s got anything better than 5th round value right now, and even if he keeps this up all year I still wouldn’t touch him before the 4th next year.
Rudy Gay - Now this is the kind of breakout season we all can enjoy. There are virtually no red flags here - the kid is only 21 years old, he’s in his second year, he showed plenty of promise last year, it’s his first shot at consistent starter’s minutes, and he’s making the most of them. In fact, pretty much the only bad thing you can say about him is that even though his stats are so good, his team still stinks - but there are plenty of others to shoulder that blame (Pau Gasol, anyone?). Yes the jump seems a little severe at first glance, but when you split last year in half and look at his progression from pre-All Star break to post-break to this year as three pieces, it looks very reasonable. The only question at this point is, how much can he improve now? HIs stats have been slowly improving month-to-month even, and at this rate he could be putting up 25/8 by April with big numbers in threes and steals. Right now he’s at 33 on the APR and I think that’s actually pretty accurate as far as his overall value goes too, but I’d bet you can probably get him a little cheaper than that.
Brad Miller - This one really only makes a little bit of sense. Like Kaman and Turkoglu, Miller struggled through injuries last year which deflated his numbers across the board, but he also is older than both of them at 31 and has quite a bit of mileage on him. He looked to be left for dead by the end of last year and there wasn’t much reason to think he’d be any better than a C2 for the rest of his career. This year, though, has been a nice mini-resurgence as he’s gone back to being an asset pretty much across the board. With pretty much the entire Kings starting lineup injured, Miller’s returned as a fantasy force. It’s not like his per-minute numbers ever took too big of a hit - it was his minutes more than anything that suffered last year. The issues for Miller are two - limited upside and lingering injury risk. I guess you could say there are three risks as there’s always the possibility that the Kings throw in the towel on the season and throw Spencer Hawes to the wolves (not the T-Wolves, the actual wolves), but I don’t think that’s really a possibility as that approach doesn’t work to well for young bigs - it usually damages their confidence more than anything else. But the lack of upside and injury risk are very real for Miller, and that will keep him at probably around a 7th round value or so rather than at the 5th round, where he’s playing right now.