Note – this was done before Luke Ridnour’s injury and competition from Earl Watson, he probably get bumped down a couple of rounds until that shakes out.

Team L: David West (Iverson, Bosh, Marbury, Stojakovic, Bogut)
Team K: Mike Miller (Allen, Duncan, G. Wallace, Hinrich, S. O’Neal)
Team J: Adam Morrison (Pierce, Nash, R. Wallace, Camby, A Harrington)
Team I: Chris Kaman (Ming, Paul, Lewis, Jefferson, J. Nelson)
Team H: Luke Ridnour (Arenas, Kirilenko, Artest, D. Howard, Battier)
Team G: Rafer Alston (Brand, V. Carter, Diaw, Felton, C. Butler)
Team F: Mike James (Wade, J. O’Neal, B. Miller, Terry, Iguodala)
Team E: Charlie Villanueva (Nowitzki, McGrady, Redd, Okur, B. Davis)
Team D: Larry Hughes (Garnett, Kidd, Anthony, Boozer, Jamison)
Team C: Troy Murphy (Stoudemire, Bryant, Bibby, Webber, A. Miller)
Team B: Ricky Davis (Marion, Joe Johnson, J. Richardson, Josh Smith, Okafor)
Team A: Richard Hamilton (LeBron, Billups, Odom, Ilgauskas, B. Wallace)

So here we are, six rounds into the draft, which is where we’ll stop.  I’ll do a little team by team analysis and see what we can learn:

Team A, honestly, looks great.  They might be the best team in the leaue right now.  Every statistical category has at least 2 studs in it, there’s not much injury risk, and they’ve got strength at both of the scarcity positions.

Team B went with three question marks in a row – Richardson (injury risk), Smith (can he do it at a 4th round value?) and Okafor (can he do it at all?).  They’ve got no depth at C and Joe Johnson is the only guy who qualifies at PG and the only source of assists.  You’ve got to pair Marion with some strong assist guys – in retrospect he probably should have gone with Bibby in the third over Richardson.

Team C will be looking for size the next few rounds, in fact they already started here with Murphy, and that’s fine.  They’ve got as solid a backcourt as you’ll find, so depth up front will be the focus moving forward.  That way Amare and Webber being healthy is more of a bonus than a necessity.

Team D is also pretty strong right now.  They’ve got some nice balance and they didn’t take a big risk until the 6th round, playing it conservatively and generally taking the best player available.  That strategy seemed to work out pretty well for them.

Team E is not looking too great.  They took high-risk players in the 2nd and 5th rounds, and maybe pulled the trigger too early on Villanueva.  Redd and Okur are good complimentary players but they look a lot better surrounded by sure things, and that’s not the case here.

Team F did a fantastic job of matching up his third and fourth round picks with his top two picks.  Miller is a great value at center if you can make up for his blocks, which Wade and O’Neal do.  Then, with almost no threes out of his first three picks he took a few players who all contribute there with his next three picks.  He, too, didn’t do much risk-taking and came out with a nice team.

Team G did a great job of matching some risks with some safe bets.  You’ve got three sure things in Brand, Carter and Butler, and both Diaw and Felton could perform better than where they were drafted, and if they don’t, it won’t be a disaster.  I think he could have gone with Hamilton in the sixth as another sure thing, but that’s just me.

Team H, like Team G, matched some risks with some sure things, his risks just came a round earlier, in 2 and 3.  I still love the Battier pick even with Bonzi Wells around, and I’m assuming that Ridnour would be replaced by either James or Alston at this point.

Team I might be my second favorite team behind Team A as long as Yao is healthy.  2 good centers, 2 great point guards (with Nelson potentially being a breakout), and two solid-as-they-come guys in the middle of the lineup.

Team J could fall in to the trap of having to deal with some pretty awful centers if they don’t take some mid-level ones pretty quickly.  I like the Morrison pick here as far as value but I think Kaman would have been a much better pickup for this team.

Team K, well, I’ve said my piece about Ray Allen and the FT%.  He’s also got three injury risks in Wallace, Duncan and O’Neal and will really need to find some gems in the late rounds to really compete.

Team L, taking into account that Bogut probably wouldn’t be picked now, is my other favorite team, up there right next to Team I but slightly behind Team A.  I guess there’s just something to be said for picking at the end of the snake, as Teams L and A both are looking great.  Bosh and Marbury are two of my favorite picks in this whole mock, considering where they were picked, Iverson is a stud and David West should be solid this year again. 

So there you have it, the 2006 FBB mock draft.  Can’t wait till next year.

Note – we did this prior to the Bogut injury.  He probably doesn’t go for another few rounds, now.  That’s part of why you want to wait until the last possible moment to do your draft:

Team A: Ben Wallace (LeBron, Billups, Odom, Ilgauskas)
Team B: Emeka Okafor (Marion, Joe Johnson, J. Richardson, Josh Smith)
Team C: Andre Miller (Stoudemire, Bryant, Bibby, Webber)
Team D: Antawn Jamison (Garnett, Kidd, Anthony, Boozer)
Team E: Baron Davis (Nowitzki, McGrady, Redd, Okur)
Team F: Andre Iguodala (Wade, J. O’Neal, Miller, Terry)
Team G: Caron Butler (Brand, V. Carter, Diaw, Felton)
Team H: Shane Battier (Arenas, Kirilenko, Artest, D. Howard)
Team I: Jameer Nelson (Ming, Paul, Lewis, Jefferson)
Team J: Al Harrington (Pierce, Nash, R. Wallace, Camby)
Team K: Shaquille O’Neal (Allen, Duncan, G. Wallace, Hinrich)
Team L: Andrew Bogut (Iverson, Bosh, Marbury, Stojakovic)

I’ll tell you right now, this round is dangerous.  The smart move is undoubtedly to take the sure thing – Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller, all of those guys are terrific 5th round picks because they will almost certainly return you value equal to what you invest in them.  But then … there are the names.  Shaq.  Ben Wallace.  Baron Davis.  Let’s talk about them.

In order to draft these guys, your team has to be set up for them.  The success of your pick in this scenario has less to do with if the player is worth the pick and more to do with if your team can, well, withstand them.  Let’s look at a situation where it works and one where it doesn’t.  One where it works?  Ben Wallace for Team A.  Here’s why.  One, he’s a second center behind Ilgauskas.  Two, his awful FT% can’t hurt them that much, because they’ll be in the middle of the pack otherwise.  Three, his other big liability, points, is covered by a high-scoring C1 and PG1, and a potential scoring champion.  Finally, his strengths (boards, steals and blocks) could really put this team over the top in all of those categories.  Big Ben fits nicely on Team A.

An example of where it doesn’t work?  Shaq on Team K.  Hey Team K, what are you doing!?  Ray Allen’s second-biggest asset behind his threes is his FT%.  But that’s been thrown out the window.  I don’t care who else you’ve got on your team – if you have Tim Duncan AND Shaq on the same team, and throw in Gerald Wallace, you will be in last place in FT%.  That’s just a fact of life.  By drafting Shaq, Team K has put his team at the bottom of the FT% category and is looking at getting no value from Ray Allen’s 90% FT shooting.

Tomorrow: Round Six.

Last call for good C1’s and PG1’s!

Team L: Peja Stojakovic (Iverson, Bosh, Marbury)
Team K: Kirk Hinrich (Allen, Duncan, G. Wallace)
Team J: Marcus Camby (Pierce, Nash, R. Wallace)
Team I: Richard Jefferson (Ming, Paul, Lewis)
Team H: Dwight Howard (Arenas, Kirilenko, Artest)
Team G: Raymond Felton (Brand, V. Carter, Diaw)
Team F: Jason Terry (Wade, J. O’Neal, Miller)
Team E: Mehmet Okur (Nowitzki, McGrady, Redd)
Team D: Carlos Boozer (Garnett, Kidd, Anthony)
Team C: Chris Webber (Stoudemire, Bryant, Bibby)
Team B: Josh Smith (Marion, Joe Johnson, J. Richardson)
Team A: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (LeBron, Billups, Odom)

The fourth and fifth rounds are my favorite rounds.  You can spread your wings a little.  Got a mid-level sleeper?  Go for it.  Wanna load up with a second center or point guard?  Here’s a great spot to do it and create a real advantage for your team.  Need a little balance for your team?  You can probably take care of that here, too.  The first three rounds you HAVE to play it conservatively.  Here in the fourth you can take your risks, whether it’s banking on a young guy to make a leap like Raymond Felton, or rolling the dice on Chris Webber.  You can also find your position-fillers, like Kirk Hinrich or Zydraunas Ilgauskas, that aren’t reaches but fill those scarcity positions nicely.

There’s another tier drop here, and it is right between Howard and Felton, although you may want to put Camby in that lower tier.  Speaking of which, poor Team J.  They had Ming go right before they picked at 9, then Bosh and Duncan went right before them at 15.  Now they’re stuck having to choose between Camby, Okur and Boozer as their C1 at pick 39, which is just not a pretty position to be in.  Especially with two clearly safer bets in Jefferson and Howard on the board.  They can’t wait until their next pick, 58 overall, to grab their top center!  The pickings at that point could be awfully slim – maybe Shaq, maybe Chris Kaman … it’s just not pretty.  But you can’t blame them for any of their earlier picks – Pierce was a great selection at 9, and the only competition for Nash at 15 was Chris Paul or Andrei Kirilenko, neither of whom are centers.  Sometimes you’re just out of luck, and that means you’re going to get stuck with having to reach for a position.  And who knows?  Maybe Camby will play 65 or 70 games this year, and will be a steal this late.

My favorite teams so far?  L (2 top point guards and possibly the best center this year), and B (if J-Rich is healthy).  Least favorite? Team C.  Pairing Webber with Amare is dangerous, and even Kobe has missed at least 14 games in 5 of the last 8 seasons.

Tomorrow: Round 5.

Here we go with round three.  Previous picks are in parentheses: 

Team A: Lamar Odom (LeBron, Billups)
Team B: Jason Richardson (Marion, Joe Johnson)
Team C: Mike Bibby (Stoudemire, Bryant)
Team D: Carmelo Anthony (Garnett, Kidd)
Team E: Michael Redd (Nowitzki, McGrady)
Team F: Brad Miller (Wade, J. O’Neal)
Team G: Boris Diaw (Brand, V. Carter)
Team H: Ron Artest (Arenas, Kirilenko)
Team I : Rashard Lewis (Ming, Paul)
Team J: Rasheed Wallace (Pierce, Nash)
Team K: Gerald Wallace (Allen, Duncan)
Team L: Stephon Marbury (Iverson, Bosh)

After the horrorfest that was round two in our mock draft, it looks like there are a lot more safe picks to be had here in round three.  I thought I’d discuss the whole best-player-available versus the drafting to fill a need strategy here because it really starts to come into play here in the third and fourth rounds.  This early in the draft, you shouldn’t be in a situation where you have to make a choice between the two.  If you draft smart, you should be able to fill your need without reaching for a pick.  Look at the position split here – we’ve got 2 point guards, 2 shooting guards, 5 small forwards, 2 power forwards and a center (with Diaw also sometimes qualifying at C).  So really, there’s something for everyone here.

Let’s pick an example – let’s look at Team D.  Picking Jason Kidd was a fine selection in the second round, but Kidd can be a major liability in points.  Most second rounders will crack 20 ppg easily, but Kidd will likely struggle to reach 15.  Melo fits here not just because he’s a great scorer but because his weaknesses – blocks, boards, and assists – and covered up nicely by Garnett and Kidd.  Redd would have been another nice choice here, for the same reasons.  But taking someone like Brad Miller or Mike Bibby in this situation just doesn’t make much sense.

Also, the glut of small forwards in this round is due to some good drafting in the second round.  Small forwards don’t really fill a need, they’re the just the best players.  Let’s look at Team K.  After taking Ray Allen in the first, let’s say he went with another guard in the second, like Steve Nash or Chris Paul, rather than Duncan.  Then he would be going into round three absolutely needing a big.    Gerald Wallace, while he provides some big-man stats, is both a major injury risk and doesn’t even qualify at PF.  It’s more likely that Team K would have been forced to reach a little bit for someone like Dwight Howard or Mehmet Okur in this spot because they needed a solid big-man presence, even though a calculated risk like Gerald Wallace is probably a better pick overall.

Not only is there a variety of positions to choose from throughout the round, but there’s a lot of parity amongst these picks.  If there’s a definitive tier drop here, it’s at pick 40, right between Miller and Diaw.  But before and after that it’s pretty muddled.

Tomorrow, Round 4. 

Ah, the mock draft.  Probably my favorite columns to write.  Let’s go over the ground rules:

1. We are drafting for a 12-team league.
2. The mock league has the following lineup: PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, U, U, with 3 bench spots, no IL.
3. This mock league has the standard 8 categories, we are NOT drafting for turnovers.
4. We take turns drafting, first DM, then me.  This way we alternate picks for each team.  We also give each other input.  These are sort-of consensus picks.
5. We DO take into account team needs.  If a team is short of guards come the fifth, for example, we’ll give preference to a guard even if we may place him lower in our overall rankings.
6. We DO take into account “general opinion” about a player.  For example, if a guy is a generally accepted first round pick, we won’t let him fall to the third round just because we don’t like him.
7. We will only go through six rounds.  After six rounds, doing a mock draft doesn’t make a lot of sense because at that point team needs start to really supersede overall rankings.
So we’ll do the first two rounds today, and then we’ll go a round a day for the rest of the week.  Ready?  Me too:

Round One
Team A: LeBron James
Team B: Shawn Marion
Team C: Kobe Bryant
Team D: Kevin Garnett
Team E: Dirk Nowitzki
Team F: Dwyane Wade
Team G: Elton Brand
Team H: Gilbert Arenas
Team I: Yao Ming
Team J: Paul Pierce
Team K: Ray Allen
Team L: Allen Iverson

OK.  Let’s talk about a couple of things here.  First, the first big tier drop happens right around the sixth pick in the draft.  I’m not ready to put Wade in the same category as the top five guys – in fact, I’ve got the sixth pick in my draft and I’d take Brand before Wade as well.  But a lot of folks seem to think he’s worth a top-five pick so we’ll put him at number six ahead of Brand.  The top five guys could pretty much go anywhere but I think LBJ will go number one in almost all leagues, and Nowitzki probably will be no higher than four. 

The second half of the first round, particularly after Arenas, is filled with guys that I’d feel a lot more comfortable with taking in the second round, and these guys are a serious drop-off from the top eight.  Hopefully these late-round teams will be able to make up for the slack in the second round…

Round Two (Previous picks in parentheses):
Team L: Chris Bosh (Iverson)
Team K: Tim Duncan (Allen)
Team J: Steve Nash (Pierce)
Team I: Chris Paul (Ming)
Team H: Andrei Kirilenko (Arenas)
Team G: Vince Carter (Brand)
Team F: Jermaine O’Neal (Wade)
Team E: Tracy McGrady (Nowitzki)
Team D: Jason Kidd (Garnett)
Team C: Amare Stoudemire (Bryant)
Team B: Joe Johnson (Marion)
Team A: Chauncey Billups (LeBron)

Sometimes you’re better off picking late in the first because you can grab two studs to anchor your team, and that’s what happens here as well.  There’s a big drop-off at pick 16, right after Chris Paul.  The first four guys in this round could all warrant some consideration late in the first, and getting two guys who could be first round picks is always a major bonus.  The meat of this round is filled with big-risk, big-reward guys.  All of the guys from AK-47 through Amare are major injury risks (granted, Kidd is more an “old” risk, but still) but they can’t fall out of the second, with the possible exception of Amare.  All of them are hold-your-breath picks.  But you almost HAVE to make them.  The next tier drop probably comes right at the end of this round, between Johnson and Billups.  I think it’s probably worth considering taking Johnson a little earlier than we have him, but I’d hesitate to pick Billups before someone like T-Mac or Jermaine O’Neal.

As always, comments are welcomed, perhaps more here than elsewhere, because the point of these drafts is to get a good idea of what to expect when your draft day comes around.  Tell us we’re wrong, who you’d take higher or lower, etc.  Round three comes tomorrow.