Yes, I saved the worst for last. Ever since we drew divisions, I was dreading writing up the Blazers. It’s like the Knicks but with even less interesting players. The Blazers were horrific last year and didn’t place a single player in the top 100 on the player rater. There doesn’t seem much hope for things to improve this year, unless Zach Randolph rediscovers his 03-04 form, Brandon Roy is even better than people are hoping he is, Jarrett Jack emerges as a legit starting PG and the team’s combination of young and creaky big men offers some production. Yeah, I’m skeptical too. Some people like to look at bad teams as an opportunity to find fantasy gold, since there will be points scored, so somebody has to score them. Last year’s Blazers were a pretty good example of why that theory doesn’t always work. Nobody on this team should be taken in the first half of your draft (unless you have one looong ass draft) and there are really only a few players that are definitely worth drafting at all.

The Stud: Zach Randolph, PF
Yeah yeah, I know. But who else is it going to be, Sergio Rodriguez? We know all the bad stuff about Randolph – his lack of work ethic, the microfracture knee surgery, the annual summer police investigation, not to mention his lack of help in any category except points and boards. But the fact remains that this is an extremely young team with very few established NBA scorers. Randolph is the only player on the roster to ever average more than 15 ppg in a season in the pros. The Blazers don’t have much choice but to rely on Randolph as their offensive centerpiece. Randolph put up one of the emptiest 18 and 8s you’ll ever see last year, shooting just 44 and 71%, and averaging just 0.8 spg, and 0.2 3pg and bpg. The best hope for improvement is in those percentages, with an outside hope of maybe getting up to 0.5 3pg. Randolph has a good jump shot and after attempting just 16 3s in his career coming into last season, he attempted 55 last year. If he takes that sort of leap again, it could lead to a bit more value. Not to be too bullish on Randolph, but he’s going to come relatively cheap, and if you can get a solid points guy who is likely to be his team’s leading scorer in the 7^th round or so, there’s nothing too wrong with that.

The Support: Brandon Roy, G
We don’t like rookies too much here at FBB. More than that, I, personally, have a particular distaste for them. Most players in the league have skill sets that are so clearly defined that it just doesn’t pay to take a chance on such a complete unknown in the earlier stages of the draft when you know there’s a more reliable option on the board. The early word out of Blazers camp is that Roy will play multiple positions but might come off the bench. Whatever. Like the dysfunctional Blazers actually have any idea how things will play out more than a few weeks into the season. Roy was excellent in the summer league and everyone seems to think he’s capable of coming in and contributing right away for Portland. Roy seems to be popular as high as a fifth round pick. Maybe he’ll live up to that, but when guys such as Caron Butler, Andre Igoudala or Andre Miller are likely to be there at the same spot, is that really a risk worth taking?

The Supporting Support: Jarrett Jack, PG
Last year the Blazers had Jack, Steve Blake and Sebastian Telfair sharing duties at PG, giving each of them a bit of value at different points in the season, but making for a pretty convoluted situation. They made things a lot clearer this offseason, shipping Blake to Milwaukee and Telfair to Portland. It mostly makes sense, as they were able to get the #7 pick for Telfair, were able to sell high on Blake and still have Jack under a cheap contract for three seasons. Jack had to play shooting guard for much of last year, so there’s reason to expect an improvement in his pedestrian assist rate. But it’s worth remembering that this is the Blazers – the only way you get an assist is if somebody makes a basket, and that won’t happen too often. Jack didn’t show much of a knack for 3s or steals last year, so that means we’re looking at a point guard who might be below average in all three PG categories. Still, he’s the starter, so that makes him worth watching and worth a very late pick.

The Sleeper: Joel Przybilla, C
There seems to be a bit of a logjam in the middle for the Blazers, with Przybilla, Jamaal Magloire and LaMarcus Aldridge all around. You can probably forget about Aldridge for the time being, so that leave Przybilla and Magloire. Magloire is trade bait who won’t be with the team next season, and possibly earlier than that. Przybilla just signed a five-year deal with the Blazers. This doesn’t necessarily mean Przybilla will dominate the PT, but we’d like to think that he’ll at least see the majority of the minutes. He doesn’t need to see much more than 30 minutes to be a decent second center. He hasn’t average even 25 mpg in each of the last two seasons, but that was enough time to average at least 7 boards and 2 blocks per game. Even while missing 26 games last season, Przybilla blocked the 15^th most shots in the league. Not bad. He presents more upside than Magloire, so he’s the one worth taking a flyer on.

The Slacker: Darius Miles, SF
We’ve all heard the term “locker room cancer,” but is there such thing as a fantasy cancer? Of course not, but Miles may as well be. One of those players that’s perennially disappointing and frustrating and who makes life miserable for his owners. Throw him in there with the Marko Jarics and Eddie Griffins of the world. Miles was just about as good as he’s ever been last year, and it was still good for just #144 on the average player rater. Then take into account that he missed half the season and still isn’t quite ready … what’s the point? Yes, if healthy he has a chance to be one of the featured scorers on the team. So what? His free throw shooting has deteriorated enough that he’ll do enough harm there to offset whatever modest gains he offers in steals or blocks. Don’t do it.

Double Dribbles: It’s gone downhill fast for Jamaal Magloire. Just a couple of seasons ago he was an all-star who was looking like a consistent 15/10 guy. Now he’s another free throw killer with an extremely limited offensive palette. He remains a top rebounder, but he truly offers nothing else at this point … Raef LaFrentz is running on fumes these days. He’s not capable of mixing it up inside anymore, which means he’s shooting more 3s than ever, but those days of 2+ bpg are long, long gone … Our old buddy Juan Dixon had a sparkling month of January in which he averaged 18.7/2.4/3.5 with 1.3 3s and 1.5 steals on 50% shooting. Other than that he was thoroughly mediocre. His big problem is that he just misses shots. He’s gotten a bit better, setting a new career high with 43.5% last year, but he’s just not suited for a starting role … We can’t say that with certainty about Martell Webster, so the Blazers might see for themselves this year. The rookie had his moments last year and could have been the sleeper instead of Jack, but inconsistency seems likely for the second-year player who won’t turn 20 until December. He has the makings of a future top three-point shooter if things go well … Don’t forget that Dan Dickau averaged 13.2/2.7/5.2 with 1.3 3s just a couple years ago for the Hornets. Last year was basically a lost season for him, so we’ll see if he can regain that form and find any meaningful minutes behind Jack … Travis Outlaw didn’t show much at all, regressing almost across the board in his third season as he saw a bit more playing time. Not a good sign.

The Zen Master worked his magic, leading this team that had Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom and, uh, did I mention they had Kobe Bryant? Well, Mamba led the Lakers back to the playoffs but they ended up choking against the Phoenix Suns in the first round, ending a positive season on a very serious down note. Last year’s Lakers were a pretty good example of how a team will score a certain number of points, so somebody will end up having some value. We all knew that Kobe would be among the elite, that Odom would be a not-quite-superstar and that Kwame Brown would suck it hard. Other than that, we really weren’t sure. After a preseason in which people thought that Aaron McKie – Aaron McKie! – might end up as the team’s starting PG, Smush Parker emerged as an unlikely fantasy asset. Not much has changed this year, save the addition for Vladimir Radmanovic, who might finally get that starting spot he’s long desired, which might make him even more of a fantasy tease. Still, everybody knows this is Kobe’s show and if last season was any indication, there’s no telling what he might do.

The Stud: Kobe Bryant, SG
It’s not like we didn’t know that he had it in him. Bryant came through with the third-highest non-Wilt Chamberlain scoring season in the history of the league, his 35.4 ppg behind only MJ’s 37.1 in 86-87 and Rick Barry’s 35.6 back in 66-67. The highlight was, of course, his 81-point outburst against the Raptors. Not to be a shill for the NBA full court package, but I actually watched that happen live. It was pretty great. Besides the career-high in points, Kobe also set a career-high with 2.3 3pg, 10.2 FTA (while shooting an awesome 85%), and his 1.8 spg was the second best mark of his career. Sure, his boards and assists dipped, but he also knocked one whole turnover off from 05-06 and managed to shoot a very respectable 45% while taking a ridiculous 27 shots per game. After missing big chunks of time in each of the previous two seasons, it was a perfect season of health for Bryant, as his only missed games came after he gave a Macho Man-worthy elbow to Mike Miller. It all added up to the second-best fantasy season in the league. So what can he do for an encore? We all know Kobe is one of the most gifted scorers in the history of the league, but expecting him to average 35 ppg might be asking a bit much. His offseason knee surgery wasn’t of the dreaded microfracture variety, but it’s at least a small concern. We just ran our draft order in my league and I drew the fourth pick, so I’ll be paying close attention to Kobe until draft day. Assuming that LeBron, Marion and Garnett go as the top three, that leaves Kobe and Dirk Nowitzki as the two most logical options at the #4 spot. I’m torn. Thoughts?

The Support: Lamar Odom, F
He was the #2 option on his team, played 80 games and averaged 40 mpg in those contests. So while you may look at his stat line and see slight drops in points, rebounds and blocks, it was still a very productive season for Odom. This isn’t to say he isn’t a frustrating player to own. You probably won’t find another player taken in the first three rounds who had more than 20 games in which he didn’t even take 10 shots. But that’s just how Odom operates, so accept it. He was just outside the top 20 in total assists, a great competitive advantage for someone who qualifies at PF, especially since he was still near the top in boards. The knowledge that just one sweet, sweet bong hit could knock him out for the season is still a bit scary, but we’d like to think that Odom has matured, especially in the wake of his tragic offseason. He finished 20/24 on the player rater – probably considerably lower in leagues that count turnovers – but you probably don’t want him as your second best player. He does make a pretty excellent third best player, though, as FT% is really his only weakness, as you can pretty much count on him for somewhere around 15/10/5 with around 1 each in 3s, steals and blocks. He’s earned Phil Jackson’s trust and should continue to see tons of minutes, and you know we love that.

The Supporting Support: Vladimir Radmanovic, PF
It’s mostly for lack of a better alternative, really. Everyone’s always enamored with a big man who can hit 3s, but that only works if the 3s come with the usual big man stats. Otherwise it’s just trading one strength for another weakness. Radmanovic has a sweet stroke but is a terrible percentage shooter, doesn’t grab many boards or block many shots. So yeah, he’ll hit a couple of 3s per game, but he acts just like any of a number swingmen. It looks like Radmanovic will be the starting SF for the Lakers, but this is a guy who has always struggled to reach 30 mpg and I don’t really see that changing this year, especially with the Lakers best depth at this position with Luke Walton and Brian Cook. He is strictly a three-point specialist, and if you spend a late-round pick on him strictly for that purpose, fine. But if you’re waiting for some sort of Dirk Nowitzki breakout, well, please stop.

The Sleeper: Smush Parker, PG
It’s hard to call a guy who finished last season at #60 on the player rater a sleeper, but I’ve got a feeling that people are still skeptical of Parker. He’s not your typical starting PG, but that’s not really necessary on Phil and Kobe’s Lakers. Everyone kept waiting for him to drop off as the year went on, but he remained a remarkably consistent fantasy contributor throughout the season, averaging between 11 and 12 points in every month. Not many starting PGs will average fewer assists than Parker, but he makes up for it with solid numbers in 3s and steals. There’s nobody on the Lakers roster who seems likely to displace Parker as the starter – not rookie Jordan Farmar, not Euro League signee Shammond Williams, not noted bricklayer Sasha Vujacic. Parker doesn’t need to show any real improvement to remain a solid option, and it’s probable that he won’t. Still, it’s nice to have someone who will get you 1.5 3s and 1.5 steals, especially when you can probably grab them late in the draft. Don’t reach for Smush, but there’s little chance of you needing to do so. Grab him as a PG3 or for one of your utility slots and you should be fine.

The Slacker: Kwame Brown, FC
Oh, like it was going to be anyone else. Brown actually found a decent little niche for himself in Los Angeles by the end of the year. And that was as someone who crashed the boards, didn’t take many shots that weren’t layups, missed tons of free throws and had pure stone hands. After five seasons in the league it’s time to stop waiting for Brown to become any sort of offensive force. It’s just not happening. He’s shown very little skill on the offensive end, since he has those terrible hands and tends to travel or get called for charging every other time he tries to back someone down. He may beat out Chris Mihm for the starting center spot, but he’s still not worth starting since he has never shown that he can block shots. He averaged just 0.6 bpg while receiving 27.5 mpg last year, absolutely terrible for a center, especially one contributes nowhere else. The bottom line is that he’s simply not worth drafting.

Double Dribbles: Chris Mihm is one of those guys that’s often on the center waiver wire carousel, capable of putting up 12 and 7 with 1.5 blocks when things are going well. He’s still not fully recovered from the ankle injury that derailed his season last year, and he’ll have to show that he is before he’s worth considering … Luke Walton’s a good guy to have on your team in real life, as he does those “things that don’t show up in the box score.” Unfortunately, us fantasy folks only care about the things that show up in the box score … Brian Cook is like VladRad without the bushels of 3s, just a handful of 3s. Good guy to bring off the bench, but not your fantasy bench … Maurice Evans can put the ball in the bucket, and should Kobe Bryant go down with an injury at some point, he might be able to put up some decent numbers.

This is going to be an interesting team.  Their starting lineup consists of two potential breakouts, a broken down ex-star, and two role players.  Their bench has the biggest draft flop since 2001, the most disappointing Puerto Rican since Peter John Ramos, and JJ Redick.  This season could really go in about 50 different ways, and it’s tough to say which way is most likely.  So much of their wing production depends on the health of Grant Hill, which is obviously completely unpredictable, and so much of their other production depends on the development of their youngsters.  There are definitely some gems to be unearthed if you can guess correctly.  Let’s see if we can help:

The Stud: Dwight Howard, PF
It’s tough for a second-year guy to be the second-leading rebounder in the league and still be somewhat disappointing, but that might have been the case for Howard last year.  He didn’t score much more than he had his rookie year, saw a dip in blocks, and saw a horrendous fall in FT%.  In fact, he was only a “plus” on the player rater in three categories – boards, blocks, and FG%.  Still, when you excel in a category as much as Howard did in boards, you’re going to be a pretty good performer, and that was the case as he came in at 39/47 on the total/average player rater.  You’ve gotta think that Howard will improve his game this year.  It’s his third year, and he’s still only 20 years old, so he’s got a nice chance to really be a breakout player this season. If you can break out after already being a top-50 guy, the sky is the limit.  He’s also pretty low-risk.  You can go ahead and take him in the third round and feel pretty good about it.

The Support: Jameer Nelson, PG
What’s not to like?  Nelson is going to be the starting PG for the Magic and should see around 30 mpg.  At an absolute minimum, he’s going to put up something close to 15 and 5 with a steal, a three, and nice FG% for a PG.  It’s not unreasonable to think that he could actually end up closer to 18 and 7 with 1.5 threes and steals.  Nelson is an injury risk, but it’s too early in his career for that to be a trend.  He doesn’t have the name that other mid-round point guards have, like Tony Parker or Mike James, but he should be more valuable for your fantasy team, and that’s all that matters.  He’s a top PG2, and realistically could be a passable PG1.

The Supporting Support: Grant Hill, SF
He’s certainly not a sleeper, and you can’t really expect much of anything out of him so he can’t be a slacker, but Hill should be drafted.  When he’s healthy (quit your laughing), Hill still has plenty of value.  In the final few rounds, when you’re drafting guys that you could very well be dropping in a week, why not draft Hill?  Play him until he hurts himself, then drop him.  If you have a short leash and don’t let yourself get bogged down in Hill’s injury problems, and if you can get him late enough in the draft, he can be a nice addition to your squad.

The Sleeper: JJ Redick
Here’s what’s working in J.J.’s favor: Grant Hill is expected to be the starting shooting guard for the Magic.  Grant Hill will inevitably get hurt.  When that happens, the spot will be Redick’s to lose.  Even without that happening, I think Hill will take away a significant chunk of Hedo Turkolgu’s minutes at SF, opening up more time for Redick.  The other thing going for Redick is that his perceived value is really low right now, based on his bad back, so you’ll be able to get him late enough that you won’t have to pass up good talent for him.  With minutes, he should contribute in points, threes, and FT%, but you may not get much else.  Still, he’s got just as good a chance of succeeding as the next guy on this list – but you will probably be able to get him much later.

The Slacker:  Darko Milicic, FC
I had Darko pegged as my sleeper here for awhile, but now I’m reversing course, flip flopping, losing my will, whatever.  For sure, Milcic looks like a blocks machine, but where else will his value come from?  He doesn’t appear to be a starter, sitting behind Tony Battie, and he will likely struggle to see much more than the 20 mpg he got last year.  I’m not suggesting that Milicic shouldn’t be drafted or that he won’t have any value this year.  He could very well end up being a top-60 player when it’s all over.  Putting him as the slacker is more of a cautionary move.  You should not be relying on Darko as even a C2 unless you’ve got a very strong backup for him.  He’s just a HUGE risk, and being in the position of having to scour the wires for a center in mid-December is just not a good spot to be in.  I’d take him as a third center, and nothing more.

Double Dribbles:  Why Tony Battie is starting for this team, I have no idea.  He’s like PJ Brown only worse at everything, if that makes any sense.  He’s got no value … You know that whole “VoRP” stat – Value over Replacement Player?  I’ve always imagined the “replacement player” to be a guy like Hedo Turkoglu.  He’s had some decent value over the past few years and should continue to be a fine mid-late round pick as roster filler, but he’s only a plus in two stats, threes and FT%.  He may see a cut in minutes depending on (again) Grant Hill’s health, but should be similar to what he’s been lately … Keyon Dooling and Trevor Ariza are both interesting players but neither will see the minutes they need to have value.

The Bucks tried their best to slip out of the Eastern Conference playoffs last year, and nearly pulled it off, losing 6 of their last 9 games and finishing at 40-42.  They were the only sub-.500 team in the playoffs, didn’t belong, and graciously bowed out to the Pistons in five games.  This year, they’ve got plenty of reason for hope.  Their retooled roster features a front line that consists of arguably the two best non-CP3 rookies of last year.  They’ve got one of the best pure shooters in the game, and they’ve got a nice cast of role players to fill out the roster.  And, of course, they’ve got FBB favorite Steve Blake, which is never a bad thing.  Ever.  Let’s get on with it:

The Stud: Michael Redd, GF
Redd just keeps on impressing.  Last year he again improved his ppg, which he’s done every single season so far.  He also set a career-high in FT%, and tied a career-high in steals.  He was a spectacular 18/22 on the total/average player rater, played in 80 games, saw 39 minutes, and was everything his owners could have possibly hoped for.  Still, for some reason I’m not convinced he’s a second round pick, and I’m not sure exactly why.  I just look at all the categories that he won’t help in – FG%, boards, assists, and blocks – that’s a lot of weaknesses for your second-best player.  I also am skeptical that he will continue to improve – I’d actually be surprised if he matches all of his numbers from last year, particularly his steals and his threes.  I will say that I was pretty surprised to see Redd as a GF this year, I always thought he was a pure SG, so that bumps up his value a little just because of roster flexibility.  But I can’t advocate playing a guy who gets under 5 boards and virtually no blocks as a forward.  Redd is a top SG though, for sure, and is a great third-round selection.

The Support: Charlie Villanueva, F
Fantasy owners had a love-hate relationship with Villanueva last year.  He started off strong, with 11/6 and strong supplementary stats in November, but then saw his minutes and overall numbers decline over the next two months.  After the All-Star break, though, he was terrific.  He took advantage of being on a decimated Raptors roster and saw 35 mpg, putting up 14/8 with 1.1 threes, .8 steals and .8 blocks, and basically helping out everywhere.  The end result looked pretty good, but the problem with Villanueva was he was so off-and-on.  For example, his 48-point effort against these very Milwaukee Bucks in March was preceded by two 6-point games, and he was likely on a lot of benches when he exploded.  Some of this might be explained by the fact that he had to play for Sam Mitchell – some of it might be explained simply by the fact that he was a rookie.  Regardless, he’ll be counted on to be the starting PF on the Bucks for the present and the future, and should see at least 30 mpg in this role.  Owners will have to hope he shows some consistency, but he’s a fine mid-late round pick this year.

The Supporting Support: Bobby Simmons, GF
I was already to talk about what a terrible year Simmons had, but you know something?  It really wasn’t too bad after all.  He really struggled with both his game and his health early on, but picked it up after the new year and ended up with respectable if disappointing overall numbers.  He saw drops just about across the board except for in one area – three pointers.  All of a sudden Simmons doubled his output behind the arc to 1.5 3’s per game, and that’s a huge bonus if he keeps it up.  I’d look for Simmons – who is pretty much the only 3 on the team right now – to see at least 35 mpg, and return to his high expectations set with the Clippers two years ago, and actually exceed them if he keeps shooting threes.  He is actually a great value if you can get him in the middle rounds, which you should be able to do.

The Sleeper: Mo Williams, PG
Let’s do a Player A/Player B with two point guards:

Player A: 17.1/3.8 with 2.1 threes and 1.3 steals, 47/80 percentages, 35mpg.
Player B: 14.7/4.2 with 1.5 threes and 1.1 steals, 45/85 percentages, 29.7 mpg.

Pretty similar, right?  The first one is Jason Terry, who is likely going to be taken in the 4th round or so in your draft.  The second is Williams before he hurt his ankle last year.  He’ll be available well after the fourth round.  One of the big concerns for Williams is supposedly going to be his playing time, but I’m not buying it.  Listen, as much as we like Steve Blake, he is just not going to see the same minutes that TJ Ford saw last year.  And Charlie Bell is a nice guy but he’s also going to be backing up Michael Redd at the 2.  Williams has been promised the starting gig and should see close to 35 mpg.  Keep an eye on how things develop in camp, but as long as he holds on to that spot, he’s a fantastic sleeper this year.

The Slacker: Andrew Bogut, C
Here’s the problem with Bogut – I’m just not convinced he’s ready to make the leap this year.  He’s no better than a third or fourth option on offense at best, and he doesn’t do enough outside of that to warrant a high pick.  Let’s say he sees maybe 5 or 6 more mpg this year, up to 34 or so.  And let’s give him the benefit of the doubt that he’ll do some improving on his per-minute averages as well.  Let’s say he gets maybe a 25% bump on all his stats across the board.  That puts him around 12.5 points, 9 boards, 1 block, .8 steals.  Is that really all that good?  It’s kinda like Chris Kaman last year, only with fewer blocks (and a much worse FT%).  Bogut is worth drafting for sure, and will have his moments, but I don’t think he’s anywhere near a C1 yet.

Double Dribbles: Ruben Patterson will be a solid reserve and should something happen to the starting wingmen he should have value if only for his steals, but he’s not draftable at this point … Blake will need 35 mpg in order to have any value.  Williams does have a history of injuries, so it’s not out of the realm of possibilities, but again, he’s not draftable … Dan Gadzuric had a down year last year, but he’s still carved out a nice role for himself as a shot-blocking backup center.  He doesn’t belong on a roster though … Brian Skinner and Ha-Seung Jin had no value last year backing up Theo Ratliff and Joel Przybilla, so there’s not reason to think they’ll have value backing up Bogut and Gadzuric … I’m not sure where exactly Charlie Bell came from or why people think he’ll take minutes away from Mo Williams this year.  He’s an 11th man on this team and nothing more, in all likelihood.

It wasn’t a pretty season for the Raptors, as the team never recovered from a 1-15 start, but it wasn’t a total loss from a fantasy perspective. Sam Mitchell couldn’t get his guys to play defense and they stopped trying toward the end of the season, and the Raptors ended up as the fourth highest scoring team in the league. That made unlikely fantasy stars out of perennial waiver wire bait such as Mike James and Morris Peterson, rookie Charlie Villanueva, and it helped Chris Bosh rise to the upper echelon of fantasy stars. With former Suns mastermind Bryan Colangelo on board as the new GM, expect more offensive fireworks. This team has few established NBA players outside of Bosh and Peterson, so expect those two to continue to shoulder the load, and look for some others, such as Fred Jones, Anthony Parker or Andrea Bargnani, to emerge as the season progresses.

The Stud: Chris Bosh, FC
Last preseason I was skeptical that Bosh would make the leap to superstar in just his third season. I suspected it would take one more year for him to reach level. I was wrong. Bosh turned in a fabulous campaign that was marred only by a thumb injury that ended his season 12 games early. That’s an injury that shouldn’t linger – the Raptors were basically playing it safe with their franchise player – so there’s really nothing not to live – no, nothing not to love about Bosh going into this year. He’s drastically improved in each of his three seasons, notching huge gains in FG% and scoring rates, and he’s young enough to keep getting better. He’s the rare center-eligible player who is clearly his team’s top scoring option (and makes 80% of his free throws). He plays for a high scoring team that is likely to run even more this year. Besides that thumb injury he’s proven to be very durable. If you’re looking for weaknesses, it would be nice if he blocked more shots and could average 10 boards per game consistently, but that’s nitpicking. Bosh is no longer a superstar in the making – he is a superstar. Like the player he’s long been compared to, Kevin Garnett, he won’t pour in 40 points with regularity like other top picks, but at just 22 years old he’s already just about as consistent as they come. There’s not much difference between Bosh and Yao. We’d still lean towards taking Yao first, but Bosh should be gone within the first 15 picks of your draft.

The Support: Morris Peterson, GF
Just when we all gave up on MoPete, he comes through with a stellar season that saw him finish 41/59 on the player rater. Until last year Peterson’s durability was his strongest asset. Playing in 82 games helped him finish the year with a respectable rank on the player rater, but that didn’t always mean he was worth having in your lineup on a day-to-day basis. That changed last year, especially after the all-star break when the Raptors shortened their rotation, gave up playing defense and engaged in shootouts every night. Peterson averaged a staggering 43.1 mpg in 29 post-ASB games last year. Even guys like Jared Jeffries, Quinton Ross and Jason Collins would have value with that many minutes. OK, not Jason Collins. MoPete averaged 20.7/4.5/2.8 with 2.5 3s and 1.3 steals in those contests, as he and Mike James just went crazy, especially with Bosh missing those last dozen games. Look closely, though, and not much changed at all in Peterson’s game, except he launched more 3s. All of his percentages and rates were right around his career norms. It’s all about getting that bump from 30.6 mpg to 38.3 mpg. Hey, have we ever mentioned how minutes is the most important stat in fantasy basketball? Oh, we mention it all the time? Well, here’s why. Peterson enters the season as Toronto’s clear #2 scoring option and it’s scary to say this, but he makes a very solid mid-round selection.

The Supporting Support: T.J. Ford, PG
Ford got off to an extremely quick start last year, winning player of the week honors early on, but before a very strong finish he was struggling to even offer value as a PG3. But let’s not be too negative – it was great to see Ford back and fairly effective after missing an entire year. He improved his shooting from 38% to 42%, showed a much better knack for getting the ball in the basket and even connected on 35 3s after hitting only 5 in his rookie season. But his assist rate plummeted from 9.7 p40 to 7.4 p40, his steals remained average for his position and he still turned the ball over quite a bit. The Raptors gave up a possible all-star to get Ford, so expect him to get every chance to show he was worth it, which could help his value. He’s a worthy starter in almost all leagues, we just don’t particularly like PGs who aren’t especially helpful in two of the three main PG categories.

The Sleeper: Jose Calderon, PG
We’re still not ready to take the injury-risk tag off Ford, so that means Calderon has some nice sleeper value, as he would step in as the starting PG should Ford go down. The two are actually very similar players for fantasy purposes – point guards who don’t really shoot 3s, are merely average in steals, but can rack up the assists when things are going well. Calderon had a slightly better assist rate than Ford last year, while turning the ball over less frequently. He didn’t show much scoring ability, and doesn’t seem likely to be very good in any category other than assists. But you know that if a PG gets 35 mpg he’s going to have some value, so that’s why Calderon is worth watching. We expect him to make some appearances in As the Point Guard Turns this season.

The Slacker: Rasho Nesterovic, C
Another one of those guys who someone will draft in the very late rounds because they need a center and they see that Nesterovic had the most blocks of any of the remaining centers left, so why not? Here’s why not – he stinks. Cross out that 02-03 season with the Wolves when he averaged 11.2 and 6.6 with 1.5 blocks on 53% shooting. He got his $42 million after that, he never needs to do that again, so he definitely won’t. Nesterovic is a solid shot blocker and rebounder, and should be able to give the Raptors 20 or so decent minutes in the middle, but he’s very unlikely to be worthy of a starting slot in fantasy leagues, even if he’s the starter. You can – and should – do much better for your C2 slot. If you draft Nesterovic there, expect to stay very busy on the waiver wire all year.

Double Dribbles: Fred Jones isn’t anything special, but he can put up numbers when given the minutes. Which makes him similar to about 87% of other swingmen in the NBA, but still. He stepped up for the Pacers in the Malice the Palace fallout, averaging 16.1 ppg in nine contests he started after the brawl. He might very well get the chance to see 30 mpg with the Raptors, which would give him borderline fantasy value … John Hollinger expects big things from #1 pick Andrea Bargnani, therefore we expect big things from him. Just not right away. Andrew Bogut was the previous #1 pick, and he was thought to be as well-polished as could be, and he checked in at #104 on the player rater last year. So temper your expectations, at least early on, but Bargnani … We won’t pretend to know much about Anthony Parker, but he might get an opportunity to battle Fred Jones for serious minutes. We just worry that he’ll have a tough time adjusting to the NBA like another former Maccabi Tel Aviv star, Sarunas Jasikevicius … Darrick Martin is the brother of a former intern of mine (yes, I have interns!). She gets free tickets to lots of games. That makes me jealous. That is all. What, you weren’t expecting me to say anything about Martin having any fantasy value, were you?

You know, it’s pretty tough to believe that the Pacers managed to win 41 games last year, even in the weak Eastern Conference.  Look at their starting five on their Depth Chart going into the year: Jamaal Tinsley (out half the year, ineffective the rest), Jermaine O’Neal (missed 30 games), Jeff Foster (out 19 games), Ron Artest (missed 24 of 42 games before being dealt), and Stephen Jackson (shoots 41% from the floor and is a jerk).  Even their bench was riddled with injuries – Freddie Jones, Austin Croshere, David Harrison, and Scott Pollard all missed significant time.  Maybe we misunderestimated Peja Stojakovic after all.  Really, though, the Pacers were a pretty deep team that was well-coached, and that doesn’t change this year – while Peja, Jones, Croshere and Anthony Johnson all left, they brought in Al Harrington, Marquis Daniels, Darrell Armstrong, Orien Greene, Shawne Williams, James White, Rawle Marshall, Josh Powell … you get the picture.  There are a ton of players on this team.  Which ones will see the minutes?  With this team’s injury history, everyone’s got a chance at value at some point this year …

The Stud: Jermaine O’Neal, FC
The “other” O’Neal had a tough time staying healthy for the second year in a row.  This is a big concern for a guy who has had trouble lately maintaining his value as a second round pick.  On the average player rater he came in at a disappointing 28.  But here’s the thing with O’Neal – he gets most of his value from being a real “plus” guy at center.  There aren’t too many of them.  As an added bonus, he won’t murder you at FT% like a lot of top centers will.  He might not be strong there, but he’s no Tim Duncan either.  Plus, he’ll likely be the starting C for the Pacers, meaning more play inside, meaning a higher FG% and hopefully a return to double-digit rebounds.  O’Neal is going to be taken in the mid-late second round mostly because he’s a center, and you know what?  That’s fine by me.  As much as you want the best player available, coming out of the first two rounds without a strong C is perhaps a concern.  We’ll talk about this more later in the month when we go over our tiers.

The Support: Al Harrington, F
No sir, I don’t like it.  If the “slacker” category hadn’t already been reserved on the Pacers like 4 months ago, Harrington would be in it.  Harrington absolutely maxed out his fantasy potential on the Hawks, where he was the number clear 1A to Joe Johnson’s 1, saw about 37 mpg, and was given every chance to be a star.  It just didn’t happen.  Now he’s got a fat new contract, but he’s also got a lot more competition for shots and playing time.  From a fantasy standpoint, he’s no great shakes – he was in the mid-70’s on the average player rater last year, is a pretty awful FT shooter, and doesn’t block shots.  Throw in the probable drop in PT Harrington is likely to see and the fewer shots, and Big Al may be looking at a triple-digit number on the average player rater this year.  I wouldn’t consider him before the 6th round.

The Supporting Support: Stephen Jackson, GF
This team has more wings than … a bunch of pigeons?  A pilot?  The Hooters Gourmet Chicken Wing Dinner?  Whatever.  The point is, there are about 8 guys on this team who play the 2 or 3 spots.  Jackson, however, is the incumbent, so it’s his spot to lose.  He doesn’t shoot very well, but he’s a nice contributor in both threes and steals, and is a decent pick once you’re looking to fill out your starters, in the eighth or ninth rounds.  I think he’ll contribute as much or maybe even more than Al Harrington this year, and if you can get him three rounds (or more) after Harrington’s gone, good for you.

The Sleeper: Danny Granger, SF
The Lone Granger (eh? eh?) has all the makings of a nice fantasy sleeper.  He contributes a little bit everywhere, saw limited minutes last year, and is probably going to be thrown into the starting lineup this time around.  Project his numbers out to 35 mpg and he’ll give you 11/7 with 1.2 blocks, 1.1 steals, and 0.6 threes.  The question will be if he actually gets to 35 mpg with such a crowded roster.  Still, he’s had a year to improve his game at might be able to put up numbers like that with only 28-30 minutes.  If he lasts into the late rounds, and you can get him on your bench, by all means do it.

The Slacker: Jamaal Tinsley, PG
Like it could be anyone else.  Tinsley is like Baron Davis without the talent.  He’s a consistent threat to miss thirty games.  He is horrific both from the field and from the stripe.  The PG spot is just as crowded as everywhere else on the Pacers, as Darrell Armstrong, Sarunas Jasikevicius and even Orien Greene are there to pick up Tinsley’s slack.  Tinsley has been a complete bear to deal with from a fantasy perspective for three years running, and I’m sure I don’t have to remind you of our saying about getting fooled.  Don’t let it happen again.

Double Dribbles: New uniform, but the same story for Marquis Daniels – he’ll work hard to take away fantasy value from guys like Granger and Jackson while not doing enough himself to warrant a roster spot … Jeff Foster is a great rebounder but does absolutely nothing else for your team.  He’s not worth drafting unless you’re totally desperate for rebounds at the end of the draft … Darrell Armstrong was added for his “veteran leadership,” which unfortunately is not a fantasy category … Sarunas Jasikevicius really struggled last year – he’s just not a true PG, and he doesn’t have the size to play the 2 guard.  That doesn’t mean I won’t be rooting for him, though…

Well that was a disaster, huh? There’s really not much more that can be said about the Knicks 05-06 campaign. I sure as hell don’t want to read anymore about it and so I’ll just assume you feel the same way. Instead, we’ll look forward to what might be an even more disastrous 06-07 campaign. Isiah Thomas inherits the mess he created, and we’ll see what he can do with it. There’s plenty of talent here, there’s just not much talent that seems to mesh too well. The Knicks were a fantasy wasteland last year, as their highest ranked player was Jamal Crawford at #74. Stephon Marbury was next at #114 (not counting Steve Francis), which means that the Knicks provided just two players worthy of starting in your normal 12-team league. Will it be different this year? You’d have to think at least a little. Thomas brought these players in so he must have some idea how he wants to utilize them. Right? Hmm, maybe not. At the very least, the Knicks might offer some value on draft day. Most people will have such horrible memories of last year that the players will keep slipping. That still might not give them any value, but at least you won’t get burned by wasting an early pick.

The Stud: Stephon Marbury, PG
There’s no better example of what a disruptive force Larry Brown was than to just look at Marbury’s season. Marbury had been the perfect picture of fantasy consistency over the previous eight seasons, averaging between 19.8 and 23.9 ppg and 7.6 and 9.3 apg each year. It didn’t matter if he was in New Jersey, Phoenix or New York, the numbers were there. I assumed that would be the case again last season, the Brown would realize Marbury was his best player and let him do his thing. Didn’t quite work out that way. Those who spend a second round pick on Marbury counting on his usual numbers instead got an injury-plagued season in which he put up his worst stats since his 96-97 rookie season in Minnesota. The big question is whether Mabrury can regain his past form this season under Thomas, and there’s every reason to expect that he will. Out of all of the moves Thomas as made, bringing Marbury in to be the team’s leader is still the biggest one. Before the all-star break Marbury was doing pretty well until injuries and the absolute mess with the team derailed everything. The 18.2/6.9/3.3 pre-ASB line still is below his recent norms, but just barely. There is a crowded backcourt, but Marbury is the one guy that should be safe when it comes to minutes. Like Baron Davis, he’s another player that is going to come at a discount for the first time in a while. His draft position in my last four drafts: 18, 14, 15, 27. He will not be going that early this year, that’s for sure. Chances are he will last until at least the end of the third round and into the fourth round. He makes a pretty attractive risk around there.

The Support: Jamal Crawford, SG
Crawford has turned into a pretty consistent player but one who will never be too valuable thanks to his truly horrendous shooting. His 41.6% last year raised his career average to just over 40%, which is awful no matter what position you play. He predictably cut down on his 3PA under Larry Brown last year, his attempts dropping in half from 7.3 per game in 04-05 to 3.7 per game last year. With Isiah at the helm you can expect that number to go up, and he did have two straight seasons averaging 2+ 3pg in 03-04 and 04-05. That gives anyone value. Steve Francis and Nate Robinson are around to make the PT situation cloudy, but Crawford was impressive enough at the end of the season last year to earn the benefit of the doubt going into this year. In fact, he was borderline dominant in the season’s last month, going for 22.2/3.7/5.7 with 1.6 3s and 2.4 steals. He doesn’t have much upside, but usually seems to get his numbers, making him a decent later pick for a team that needs 3s.

The Supporting Support: Channing Frye, FC
The most frustrating aspect of the Larry Brown Era, er, Larry Brown Year, was the complete lack of logic when it came to who got PT, and Frye was jerked around more than anyone. He starts three games at the end of November, is good for 18 and 7 on 50% shooting, then he’s back on the bench for four games. Then after a 6-point, 6-rebound game in which he saw just 17 minutes, he was back in the starting lineup for six games. Then he was yanked and saw just 10 minutes the next game. Then he played 36 minutes off the bench next game. And so on. The knee injury that ended Frye’s season is certainly something to worry about and monitor in the preseason, but assuming everything checks out, he slots as the starting PF. With the release of Mo Taylor, Malik Rose is the only true PF left on the roster, although “Fuckin’” Jared Jeffries (that’s the nickname I gave him over the past few seasons – we’re very happy to see him go, needless to say) could slot in there if necessary. So Frye could see plenty of minutes, and he proved last year that he can put up serious numbers with those minutes. Frye’s a bit of a chucker, averaging 16.3 FGA p40 in his rookie year. By comparison, Crawford – who has a bit of a reputation as a gunner – averaged just 13.8 FGA p40 last season. His shot-blocking skills are still a work in progress, but Frye could be a serious points-boards-FG% asset if the minutes are there.

The Sleeper: Steve Francis, PG
Hey, any time you can get a guy who was a consensus second/third round pick for the last five years as a late-round flyer, it’s worth a shot. Sure, Francis has long been overrated and his fantasy value was due to being the default #1 option on his team and playing lots of minutes. Sure, the New York backcourt is very crowded and Francis might very well come off the bench at the start of the season. Sure, his stint with the Knicks last year saw him put up by far the worst numbers of his career. But he’s still a guy who averaged 21.3/5.8/7.0 in 04-05, and you never know who will get hurt, who will get traded or what the hell will happen in New York. The point is Francis is an afterthought this year. He’ll probably appear on lots of busts lists, but that’s where FBB differs from other sites. We already assume you know that, duh, Francis isn’t in the same position as he was the past few years when he was a top 30 player. It’s the 10^th round, it’s Steve Francis or someone you’re probably going to drop in a week for whatever guy has a random 27-point outburst. No harm in taking the chance that late.

The Slacker: Eddy Curry, C
Dude’s a bum, just face the facts. Sure, he can pour in the points and a couple times a month he even does that. And he’s a career 54% shooter, which is excellent. His heart problem (the literal one, not the figurative one) didn’t present much of a problem last year, it was just his usual mediocre play. He has a big contract and was a top pick, so people will always be looking for a reason to expect big things. Such as the fact that it’s treated as news that he showed up to training camp in good shape. Wow, congratulations, Eddy. Even if he is in good shape it doesn’t change the fact that he’s a career 66% shooter from the line (and he gets there a lot), has never grabbed more than 6.2 rpg or blocked more than 1.1 shots per game. He basically plays like an aggressive small forward. He’s never been able to play 30 mpg because of conditioning and foul problems. The center position is actually pretty deep this year, especially in Yahoo leagues. In fact, Curry makes a questionable C2.

Double Dribbles: Jared Jeffries is one of those guys who gained a reputation as a defensive stopper because he was the only player who was at least a decent defender on a largely inept defensive squad. He’d need about 40 mpg to have fantasy value and that’s just not happening … Nate Robinson showed impressive scoring ability in his rookie season, but there just aren’t enough minutes for him. Even if there were, he’s a 25-minute sparkplug off the bench guy anyway … Jerome James had a good quarter last year. Not a quarter of the season, an actual quarter of a game. I saw it, he scored like 12 points in the first quarter of a game. I guess that’s worth $30 million … Jalen Rose will probably have some big games over the course of the season, be in and out of the starting lineup, but not be worth your while … It only took one year for Quentin Richardson to go from one of the most prolific three-point seasons ever to complete fantasy irrelevance. That’s what happens when you go from fantasy’s most friendly team to it’s least friendly.

Dee-troit Bas-ket-ball had a different spin to it under new head coach Flip Saunders last year.  Armed with a new zeal for offense, they came out of the gate strong and ended up setting a franchise record for wins.  Come the playoffs, though, it was a different story.  The Pistons barely escaped a vicious 7-game series with the Cavs and then went out with a whimper against the eventual champion Miami Heat.  It was the first time in three years that Detroit didn’t represent the East in the NBA Finals.  The offseason didn’t prove to be much of a pick-me-up.  After setting themselves up to re-sign Ben Wallace by trading away Darko Milicic and Carlos Arroyo, Wallace ended up walking his ass across 8 Mile and all the way to Chicago.  The result was perhaps a bit panicked, as they threw a lot of money at Nazr Mohammed, but they also made a nice upgrade in the backcourt and on the bench with the signing of Flip Murray.  No Big Ben will hurt on D, obviously, but will the offense run a little smoother?  It had better …

The Stud: Chauncey Billups, PG
Perhaps no Piston enjoyed the extra freedom that Saunders provided more than Chauncey Billups.  Billups set a career high in points and threes, but the biggest improvement was assists, where he went from a Tony Parker-esque 5.8 to a Jason Kidd-level 8.6, good for fourth in the league.  He also kept up his spectacular FT% and added 0.9 steals.  Billups should benefit from having another capable big man under the basket, but I can’t see him doing any better than he did last year.  One concern is going to be minutes.  Billups is 30 years old, and the Pistons signed three guys in the offseason who can play point guard (the re-signed Lindsay Hunter, Will Blalock, and Murray in a pinch).  He will certainly top 30 minutes, but the 36 he saw last year may be a bit much to expect.  You don’t want to overpay for him, but Billups is a fine PG1 and should be off the board after three rounds.

The Support: Rasheed Wallace, PF
WARNING: Rasheed Wallace no longer qualifies at C in Yahoo! leagues.  Why he ever did is a good question, but regardless, Wallace loses some value by moving to PF for fantasy purposes.  That’s the bad news.  The good news is that Sheed was the second-biggest fantasy winner on the Pistons last year.  Flip Saunders encouraged him to step outside a bit more often, letting Sheed take (and make) more threes than ever before.  However, hanging around the perimeter had a negative effect, too.  He set a career-low in FG%, and took a hit in rebounds, too.  Add to that his poor FT%, and Wallace isn’t quite as attractive a fantasy option as he was in years past.  He’s still a fine mid-round pick, though, thanks to his strong defensive numbers, and may be counted on a little more on the inside this year without Big Ben around.

The Supporting Support: Richard Hamilton, SG
Let’s get the bad stuff out of the way quickly: yes, Hamilton is a one-trick pony.  He scores, and that’s it.  No real help anywhere else.  But you know what?  He’s still a fine fantasy player, and in the right situations can be a great mid-round draft pick.  He clocked in at 59/74 on the total/average player rater and that’s about where he should be drafted, in the 6th round or so.  For teams with not a lot of offensive firepower (say, those which feature Jason Kidd or Boris Diaw, high-round picks that don’t contribute a ton of points), Hamilton is a great add for the round that you get him.  His weaknesses are well documented – but let’s not forget that he has some strength, too.

The Sleeper: Nazr Mohammed, C
It doesn’t matter how much you like Antonio McDyess or Dale Davis or Jason Maxiell.  It also doesn’t matter how much you think the Pistons are going to play small, with Rasheed at C and Tayshaun at PF.  Here’s what matters: Ben Wallace played 35 mpg last year, and now he’s gone, and Nazr Mohammed is the only big man that they’ve added.  Mohammed will almost HAVE to see at least 30 mpg, something he’s never done in his career.  The one time he came close, he put up 10.9/8.1 with a block and a steal with the Knicks before getting dealt to the Spurs two years ago.  Mohammed should flirt with a double-double again this year, and is a nice late-round C pick.  He’s a great third center, and it’s not a disaster if you have to live with him as a C2.

The Slacker: Flip Murray, G
There may not have been a more disappointing line in basketball than the one that Murray put up with the Cavs last year.  Finally given major minutes, he didn’t show an ability to do much with them.  His 13/2/2 with 1.4 steals and 0.7 threes would have been fine if they were in 20 mpg, but at 36 mpg you’ve gotta provide more than that.  Murray should drop back down to that 20 mpg that he’s seen throughout his career, be counted on for a spark off the bench and that’s about it.  But I think we can put to rest the idea that he’ll ever be a big-time contributor in either fantasy or the NBA.

Double Dribbles: A funny thing happens when 5 guys are expected to get over 30 mpg on one team – one of them gets pushed to the “Double Dribbles” section even though he’s worth drafting.  That’s what happened to Tayshaun Prince.  Prince is obviously a fantasy starter and a good mid/late-round pick … Other than Murray, the only bench guy who should see any significant time this year is Antonio McDyess, who played very well last year in a bench role.  He seems better suited off the bench, though, and shouldn’t see much more than 20 mpg, and shouldn’t have fantasy value.

The LeBrons made a huge leap last year, not only getting to the playoffs but ruining my life as they beat the Wizards in the first round in a series of heartbreakers, and then nearly upending the defending champion Detroit Pistons in the second round.  Not bad for a team that basically struck out the previous offseason: Larry Hughes both underperformed and missed half the season, and Damon Jones and Donyell Marshall stunk up the joint.  This offseason was much more relaxed after LeBron finally re-signed, and the roster is very similar to where it was last year.   The Cavs should be settling for nothing less than an Eastern Conference championship this year, and that means someone is going to have to step it up.  Let’s try and guess who that’s gonna be:

The Stud: LeBron James, SF
Despite all the accolades and attention, is it possible that LeBron James was a little disappointing last year?  His FT% has gone from a nuisance to a legitimate concern, and he took a hit in steals, boards, and assists.  Still, he’s the top pick.  He’s only 21 years old so he could still be improving, as scary as that is.  The other thing to consider is that you have to think his assists are going to go up this year, simply because the Cavs MUST shoot better this year from the outside.  They signed Jones and Marshall knowing that they were going to have plenty of wide-open threes, which they did.  The problem was that they didn’t make ‘em – the Cavs tied for 23rd in the league in three point FG%.  That’s going to improve this year – it just has to.  The addition of David Wesley will help, plus you’ve gotta imagine that Jones and Marshall will at least somewhat regain their form.  That should help James reach at least 8 assists, and maybe more.  The other concern is fatigue, as LeBron played in the World Championships, and has played 42 mpg each of the last 2 seasons as well.  But you won’t get any arguments from us with taking him number one, and if he slips to you at two or three, congratulations.

The Support: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C
Has there been a more quietly dependable center over the past few years than Big Z?  Each of the last four years he’s been good for at least 15/7 with 1.7 blocks, and last year he even added some nice percentages to his repertoire.  The concern with Ilgauskas for a long time was injury issues, but he’s played in at least 78 games for four years in a row.  The new concern is age.  Z is 31 years old, and last year he slipped just under the dreaded 30 mpg mark.  On the bright side, though, there’s not really anyone challenging him for minutes, and he could see as little as 25 minutes this year and still have plenty of value.  He showed up at 37/44 on the total/average player rater despite his drop in minutes, and with no one in line to take his place should be good for a 4th round pick again this year.  He’s a fine C1 and a luxury as a C2.

The Supporting Support: Larry Hughes
What a bummer that was, huh?  Hughes not only got hurt and missed over half the year, but he also managed to stink when he was on the court.  Not that this was a huge surprise – he set career highs in a few categories the year before, including an absurd 2.9 steals, and that was a contract year, and then he changed teams to boot.  In fact, his on-court performance last year was pretty solidly in line with his career averages.  Despite his struggles, it was nice to see that he still got his minutes when he was healthy, as he played 35 mpg.  Hughes is no longer worth considering in the third or fourth rounds like he was last year, and you have to be careful with percentages, but he should be OK as a mid-round pick this time around.

The Sleeper: Donyell Marshall, F
Marshall was awful last year.  There’s just no way around it.  He saw the same 25 mpg that he saw in Toronto the year before but slipped significantly in every single statistical category.  It’s conceivable that he won’t even get drafted in some leagues this year because he was so bad last year.  Don’t let this happen in your league.  Marshall is worth a spot on your bench at the very least, just because of his potential to be a top-50 guy.  You have to think he’s going to turn it around this year.  Here’s something interesting to look at – check out his splits from last year, and look at how drastically better he was when he got 3 days of rest.  Granted it was a small sample size, but this really gives some support to the idea that he was really out of shape last year.  That’s why the reports that he’s gotten in much better shape over the summer are so encouraging.  Marshall is a nice late risk, and if you’re extra confident you could even draft him for a Utility spot.

The Slacker: Drew Gooden, PF
Make no mistake, we are Drew Gooden fans here at FBB, but that’s in real life, not in fantasy.  The fact is that in fantasy, Gooden just doesn’t do enough in enough categories.  Yes he rebounds and has a decent FG%, but that’s really about it.  He disappointed across the board last year (is this a trend for the Cavs or what?), and regressed badly in FT%.  Here’s a couple ifs:  IF he gets C-eligibility (not out of the question), and/or IF he starts to get defensive numbers up over the 1.0 mark, he’ll be worth a starting spot.  I’m not sure that either of those will happen.  He’s still a decent selection for your bench, though.

Double Dribbles:  Shannon Brown wowed a lot of people leading up to the draft this year, but it’s going to take some major injuries for him to get enough time for fantasy value … Damon Jones lost any value potential when the Cavs signed David Wesley … speaking of Wesley, he didn’t have much value playing 33 mpg on a skeleton Rockets team last year, so there’s no reason to think he’ll have value playing 20 mpg on the Cavs … Anderson Varejao and Scott Pollard will try to out-hair each other, but the minutes just won’t be there for either of them this year.

The Sonics fall from 52 to 35 wins and out of the playoffs was so predictable that it seemed almost too predictable. But it happened and it would be surprising to see them get back into the upper echelon of teams in a very tough conference. For a high scoring team the Sonics had surprisingly few fantasy options until the end of the season when Chris Wilcox and even Earl Watson emerged as legitimate options. Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis are reliable players who are clearly the offensive leaders on this team and former interim coach Bob Hill will continue to lean heavily on them.

The Stud: Ray Allen, SG
Now that’s a nice season, as it’s bound to be when you set an all-time record in one of the six cumulative fantasy categories. Allen made 35% more 3s than Gilbert Arenas, who was second in the league, making him outrageously dominant there. Everything else was right around his established numbers in Seattle, and it was encouraging to see him make it through a second consecutive season largely injury-free. You can’t count on him to break his own record in 3s again, but betting on Allen to lead the league in 3s is probably the safest bet for any single category in fantasy this year, except for maybe Steve Nash in assists. It’s always nice to get out to a huge start in a category, and it’s always nice to have the unquestioned #1 option on one of the league’s highest scoring teams. There are plenty of possibilities as you get around the #10 position in the draft, and Allen’s as legit an option as any of them.

The Support: Rashard Lewis, SF
He still can’t earn much fantasy respect, but once again he was right there in the top 25-30 at the end of the year. We can’t blame it all on his playing in Seattle; it’s because he gets his value by being pretty good at everything without being particularly great at anything. His 1.8 3s are quite nice, but he was barely top 20 there and it was a fairly steep drop from the 2.4 per game he hit in 04-05. Some people were scared by a shoulder problem, but Lewis played in 78 games, his seventh straight season of 70+ games. Lewis is a “fill-in-the-stat-line-now” kind of guy. You know exactly what to expect from him and there’s not much chance of a breakout. People like their early picks to be superstars, or at least have the chance to superstars, and that’s not too likely with Lewis. Last year he went 32^nd in my league and finished 23^rd on the player rater. I have a feeling something pretty similar will happen again.

The Supporting Support: Luke Ridnour, PG
Ridnour gets the job done and is basically your prototype #2 PG. He finished 7^th in assists, 17^th in steals and 22^nd in free throw value last season. OK, so he doesn’t hit too many 3s – there’s a reason he’s a #2 PG. He’s durable and will probably have one stretch where it looks like he might lose his job, but he’s pretty reliable. Ridnour’s not a good shooter, but he doesn’t throw enough up there for it to hurt you more than you can handle from the position. He’s not a guy you’re going to love, but he’s pretty easy to like. He improved his scoring, assists and steals last season, his second as a starter. He’s young enough to continue to show improvement and he plays for one of the league’s highest scoring teams. His lack of flash and the fact that he plays in Seattle will probably make him a decent value in the middle rounds on draft day.

The Sleeper: Damien Wilkins, GF
Undraftable, but should something happen to Ray Allen, Wilkins could be a must-have. He took Allen’s spot in the starting lineup four times last year and in those four games he put up numbers of 16/4/2 with a handful of 3s and steals. Nothing spectacular, but if the minutes are there he’s worth playing. Of course, that goes for just about anyone. We’ve never denied it’s all about the opportunity, and spotting who might get that opportunity is a big part of things.

The Slacker: Chris Wilcox, FC
As you well know by now, just because someone’s a slacker doesn’t mean we think they are bad. Just overvalued. Wilcox has always flashed plenty of potential, he’s just never had an extended opportunity to show his stuff. He got that opportunity when he was traded to Seattle in the second half of the season, and in his contract push he put up some mighty promising numbers. In 30 games with the Sonics Wilcox put up 14.1/8.2/1.2 on a ridiculous 59% shooting. He ended the season on a down note but put up some just monster lines in the weeks prior to that – 16 and 19, 30 and 14, 26 and 24 among them. He signed a three-year to stay with the Sonics and should be the team’s starting PF going into the season. He’s going to be worth drafting, but there’s always at least one person in your league who will see the upside, see those numbers from late in the season and project him out as a 20/10 guy who will be the next Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Sure it could happen, just don’t overpay to find out. His center-eligibility in Yahoo! Leagues is a nice temptation, though.

Double Dribbles: Earl Watson was a little dynamo for the Sonics after getting out of Denver, averaging 11.5/3.0/5.4 with 1.3 steals and 1.8 3s in 25 mpg off the bench. He might have been a little too good, in fact, ensuing that he’ll remain in that sparkplug off the bench role that would limit his minutes just enough to make him a fantasy tease that makes for decent depth but probably not someone you’d feel comfortable starting in most leagues … Robert Swift showed some actual potential in his second season after sitting on the pine for almost his entire rookie season. Swift won’t be any kind of offensive force for a long while, so we mostly care about his blocks. Swift had seven games of 3 blocks or more last season, not bad. He commits lots of fouls and that could keep him from seeing that magic 30 mpg mark that would make him a decent third center … Nick Collison’s a lesser statistical version of Wilcox. Excellent FG%, very good boards, some points. He went for 20 and 12 then 19 and 13 in two of his first games as a starter last year but those were two of his best games of the year.