Pickup: LaMarcus Aldridge
Drop: Keith Bogans
If Aldridge does indeed take over as the starting center in Portland he should be worth owning and using, but as much as I like the rookie’s game, it’s still hard to envision much consistency over the rest of the year. He gets into foul trouble on a regular basis; it’s easy to envision a bunch of games in which he picks up two quick ones and plays about 7 minutes in the first half. Zach Randolph and Brandon Roy are clearly established as the top offensive weapons on the team, so Aldridge will have to work for consistent offense. But he blocks shots and has solid percentages, making him a valuable commodity. In roto leagues it’s pretty common for teams to find themselves needing to make up games at center toward the end of the season. If that’s the case, a guy like Aldridge can be especially useful. Bogans’ first two games as a starter were very poor, but 17/2.5/3 with 3 3s in the last two aren’t bad. But then you put him in the lineup and he’s back to the 6/3/1 guy. Not worth it.

Pickup: Rajon Rondo
Drop: Tim Thomas
The steals are for real. Rondo had the reputation coming out of school and has certainly lived up to it. He has 10 games of three or more steals this season and only 8 games of 30 or more minutes. If he can stick in the starting lineup – he’s averaging 38 mpg as a starter in the last three – he can be a difference maker in that category. Steals is a category that can get bunched up around this time of the season. A player like Rondo can help gain two or three points on his own in the right circumstance. But he’ll need a few weeks to do that, and that depends on Paul Pierce. The way his recovery has been going so far, it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Rondo get that chance. Rondo’s has also lived up to his shooting reputation, which isn’t good news. His 41/63 percentages are lame and he only has 4 3s on the year, which hurts from a PG. He’s certainly a player to continue watching as he gets big minutes, to see what kind of numbers the future may hold. Tim Thomas’s last game shows why he can’t be trusted. Four straight games of at least 17, then a 3-point outing. Bench players are just too unreliable, and their hot streaks don’t always coincide with when you have them in your lineup.

Pickup: Shaun Livingston
Drop: Mickael Pietrus
When Livingston’s shot is falling it just makes him so much more effective. It sounds overly simple, but it’s true. The assists haven’t been there lately – just 10 in his last four games – but he’s re-earning the trust of Mike Dunleavy and his teammates and his playing time is on the upswing, seeing 25-28-30-37 minutes in the last four games. He’s been making up for the lack of assists with handfuls of steals, totaling 16 in the last 6 games. Still, unless he rejoins the starting lineup – ideally at the expense of Sam Cassell – it’s hard to see him having consistent value. This was sort of a make or break year for Pietrus and he certainly didn’t break. But it doesn’t look like he really made anything out of himself either. His combination of 1.3 3pg, 0.7 spg and 0.8 bpg makes you think he should have at least some value, and he does, but those numbers come with about 31 mpg. Can you really see Pietrus getting any more than that this year, or any other year?

Pickup: Rudy Gay
Drop: Andrea Bargnani
An exchange of rookies. May as well go with the one who’s starting, but we all know how it goes with Gay. Just type “gay transaction” into the search box, make yourself a John Amechi joke, and then read what I’ve written in the past on Gay. Because the same holds now. After a stretch of games in which he saw close to 30 mpg, Bargnani seems to be topping out around the 22 mpg mark. That’s a huge difference, the one between making a guy worthy of being on your bench and between being waiver wire fodder.

Pickup: Peja Stojakovic
Drop: LaMarcus Aldrige
Remember how last time I said Aldridge would be appearing in future TRs? Well, he’s here multiple times. As for Stojakovic, I’m skeptical. It doesn’t sound like he really wants to come back this year, there doesn’t seem to be much of a reason for him to come back. Personally, I wouldn’t be wasting a spot on him right now, especially as we move on in the year and those teams at the bottom of the standings stop making as many moves, leaving more quality options out there for the taking.

Pickup: Mickael Pietrus
Drop: Rajon Rondo
It must have seemed like a good idea at the time, I guess. Not so much a day later, I suppose.

Pickup: Matt Barnes
Drop: Charlie Bell
Barnes was back to borderline value the last two games with 11/4/2 with some help in steals, blocks and 3s. And he did launch 7 3s in just 24 minutes the other night. And I suppose if Stephen Jackson gets taken away in shackles he could be in for some good games again. But really, why even bother predicting anymore with the Warriors? I wouldn’t get too excited about Barnes right now, though. Just remember those glorious weeks around the new year. Bell’s had 31 starts this year in which he’s played a very healthy 37.2 mpg. In those games: 13.8/2.9/2.7 with 1.6 3s, 1.2 steals on 42% shooting. Yeah, that’s about right. Just enough to offset the bad shooting, nothing to really fall in love with. It’s possible he keeps his starting job when Michael Redd gets back, but if you need to drop him, he’s droppable.

Pickup: Marcus Banks
Drop: Jason Williams
BV had his preemptive strike on this one back on Wednesday. Williams had a decent little run – and that’s all it was, a decent little run – and has fallen to injury again. If he gets healthy for a stretch run, don’t forget about him.

Pickup: Ike Diogu
Drop: Matt Harpring
That game against the Grizzlies last week was a peek at Diogu’s skill set. He totaled 19 points on just 10 attempts from the field, hitting 6 of those and making all 7 from the line. He also grabbed 9 boards, blocked a shot and – of course – picked up five fouls, all in just 23 minutes. He didn’t get the start when Jermaine O’Neal sat out against the Sonics, and when he saw just about the same amount of PT in that game he hit only 2-of-7 and 5-of-8 for 9 points to go along with 10 boards. People compared Diogu to Elton Brand, at least as a best-case scenario, but to me it looks like Zach Randolph is a better comparison. It’s still hard to tell if he’ll be able to get any blocks, and it’s possible he’ll be a strictly points/boards/percentages guy. But let’s wait until he sees 35 mpg regularly for a long stretch before deciding that for sure. If Jeff Foster and Troy Murphy are healthy, Diogu still might need a bit more than a Jermaine O’Neal injury to have fantasy value.

Pickup: Luke Walton
Drop: Jerry Stackhouse
Walton should be back in another week or two, and he’ll certainly have his starting job waiting for him. Maybe his shot will come back with him. He dropped to 41% in December, and Walton has the kind of little-bit-of-everything game where if one of those little bits becomes a negative, that really hurts him. He could make a solid utility guy again in deep leagues by the end of the month. Stackhouse, bench player, inconsistent, low FG%, yadda yadda.

Drop: Bostjan Nachbar
That’s it. No pickup. Just dropping Nachbar. I loved that.

Add: Smush Parker
Drop: Mike James
This was a move I made. If there’s one thing I believe in, it’s the sunk cost. Not just in fantasy, but in most of life, too. I traded Marvin Williams for James a month or so ago, hoping James could snap out of his season-long funk. But that just isn’t going to happen. Should I hold onto him just because I traded for him? Would it make that trade look bad? Who cares? His future performance and his past inclusion in that trade are two completely separate entities and need to be treated as such. So rather than hold onto James for pride, I dumped him for Parker, who before a couple of off games was doing what made him so sneaky valuable last year. I picked him up in time for his game against the Wizards – knew there were going to be lots of points – and he came through with 20/3/3 with 2 3s and a steal on 8-of-16 shooting. Not eye-popping, but effective. He had a streak of eight consecutive games in double figures broken the next night, but he made up for it with 6 steals, the second time in three games he did that. He’s up to 1.6 spg on the season now after averaging 1.7 per game last year, and that’s where he needs the number to be to have value. His streak might be over and I pulled him out of the lineup for last night’s game, thankfully, but by all measures he has more value than James right now and for the foreseeable future.

Pickup: LaMarcus Aldridge
Drop:  Steven Hunter
Hunter hasn’t been all that terrible in his run as a starter, averaging 9.1/7.1/0.9 with 1.5 blocks on 52% shooting. But he’s really not helping you anywhere but blocks and this is the most you can expect from him and that translates into #140 on the 15-day rater. Aldridge is still stuck with just a small piece of the big man pie in Portland, so this is clearly a speculation pick up, waiting for that inevitable Jamaal Magloire trade. Aldridge reached double digits in five of seven games in the middle of January, but was back to irrelevance soon after that. Like many young bigs, he has a huge problem getting into quick foul trouble. And when you play on a team with three other 7-footers, that’s not a good thing. The rookie’s game still has plenty to like, but no doubt you’ll be seeing his name shortly in a future TR.

Pickup: Jorge Garbajosa
Drop:  Ruben Patterson
Garbajosa’s center eligibility is what was behind this pickup. The team that made this transaction is first in the league in both rebounds and blocks, and before picking up Garbajosa his only centers were Alonzo Mourning and Dikembe Mutombo. Not bad, right? Now that Shaq seems to be back he needed another person in the middle, and even though Garbajosa starts at SF, he’s got that eligibility. He seems entrenched in the starting lineup but had an incredibly lackluster January, putting up 6.2/4.1/2.2 on 33% shooting. Just amazingly bad. The 0.9 3s and 1.2 steals make it a bit better, but just a bit. He hit double digits just twice in the month and even with his center eligibility, it’s hard to see him being worth even a bench spot at this point. Patterson appeared to lose his starting job when the Bucks started to get healthy, but he was back in there when they got blown out by Orlando on Wednesday. He might stick there with Earl Boykins continuing to come off the bench, but with Charlie Villanueva and Mo Williams back, his opportunities will be much more limited. Patterson is basically playing to his career averages, it’s the increase in minutes that’s giving him a career high in points, assists and boards. He might put together some nice games and probably won’t hurt you too much if you really need to use him, but winning teams shouldn’t be relying on him at this point.

Pickup: Daniel Gibson
Drop:  Morris Peterson
Gibson has displaced Eric Snow as the starting PG for the Cavs, and in his first two starts he’s put up 15.5/2.0/1.5 with 4 3s in 27 mpg. The second round pick has shown impressive accuracy from outside, connecting on 47% of his 3s so far, and if he keeps starting and launching a half-dozen treys per game then he can be yet another waiver-wire 3-point option. He might be enough of a black hole in the other categories to not be worth the time, though. He’s averaging barely half a steal per 40 minutes, and isn’t going to rack up the assists either. He might be worth taking a chance on while he’s hot if you need help in 3s, but don’t expect any kind of serious breakout. We keep waiting for Peterson to get back into the starting lineup or get traded to a team that will start him, but it keeps not happening. It’s been a dozen games since he topped 30 minutes, and while he can still hit his share of 3s, his lack of PT simply makes him not worth having around.

Pickup: Gerald Green
Drop:  Mickael Pietrus
In the land of retarded stats, the one about the Celtics being 2-20 or whatever when Gerald Green receives 18+ mpg is one of the most retarded. Clearly those losses are because of Green, not because he is playing in place of the Celtics best player, Paul Pierce. Come on now. Green has made 16 starts on the season, seeing 31.5 mpg in those contests, which is a decent sample size. His line of 14.2/3.9/1.6 with 1.9 3s is pretty typical for a waiver wire option, especially when you factor in the 41% shooting. He shot 48% last year in limited action, which made us think he might be a rare high-percentage SG, but that’s not so clear anymore. It’s only his second season and he will continue to get better, but this is probably about as good as it gets for this year. Pietrus is another victim of The Whims of Don Nelson – he starts, he gets hurt, he starts, he comes off the bench, he starts. He’s putting up almost identical numbers as Green, except with an impressive 50% from the field that looks more like a mirage than a new trend. If he were assured 35 mpg he’d certainly be roster-worthy, but he’s not one of the players to trust on Golden State.

Pickup: Brendan Haywood
Drop:  Channing Frye
This is a move I made. Over the years there hasn’t been a single player who we’ve had more of a love/hate relationship with than Brenda(n) Haywood. So when he started playing some great ball lately I just had to grab him. I won’t give you an in-depth scouting report on Haywood, but I’ll say that he’s learning that he’s more likely to score when he goes to the basket, but that his few jumpers have been looking pretty good lately. He’s a really terrific defender and offensive rebounder, even if it does take him about 7 seconds to get a rebound and then throw three head fakes before dunking. I made this move before Antawn Jamison went down, but I’m not so sure his absence will mean bigger things for Haywood. What’s more important is that he continues to hold off Etan Thomas and receive around 30 mpg. Frye at least gave me one solid game when Eddy Curry was out, but he’s simply too low in the pecking order on the Knicks and David Lee is simply a superior player.

Pickup: Bostjan Nachbar
Drop:  Luke Walton
Here’s the problem with guys like Nachbar. He has a good game, you take notice. He has another good game, you officially start watching him. He has his best game yet, you snag him. Then you stick him in your lineup to try to catch the rest of the hot streak and he goes and gets the flu or something. I mentioned in the comments that I’m not a big fan of Nachbar, even with Richard Jefferson out. He’s still not starting, he’s still a career 38% shooter. Next. Walton’s injury makes him very droppable, because honestly he was droppable for most of January. His numbers were down in every category, even his solid percentages fell to 41/73. He’s #140 on the 30 day rater, which isn’t good.

Pickup: Paul Millsap
Drop:  Rasual Butler
BV swooped in on this one within an hour of Carlos Boozer going down, which tells you that even on a Saturday night, BV has easy access to a computer. But he deserves to have Millsap because he has been talking him up for a while, even telling me over the summer he wanted the Wizards to spend a pick on him. The numbers pretty much speak for themselves. Millsap’s averaging just over 16 mpg on the season, so double his numbers and you get 12.8/9.4/1.2 with 1.4 steals and 2.0 blocks on 54.5% from the field. Um, yes please. If you watched the Jazz/Spurs game on ESPN Thursday you saw that even though Millsap didn’t start he was out there the entire fourth quarter and he’s one of those guys who is simply always around the ball. About 40% of his boards come on the offensive glass, which helps him get some easy hoops. The Jazz will obviously miss Boozer a ton as he really opens up the floor by being such an inside presence. But if you’re a Boozer owner who quickly scooper up Millsap, the truth is you might not see too much of a drop off in productivity. It’s still an annoyance that he’s coming off the bench, as he could do some serious damage in 38-40 mpg, but you take what you can get from Jerry Sloan, I suppose.

Pickup: Marcus Williams
Drop: Randy Foye
Swapping rookie backup PGs that are receiving more and more time as the season progresses. Williams has hit double digits in his past five games, averaging 14/3/4.2 with 1.4 3s in just 22.4 mpg. Unless that last number goes up, the other numbers won’t go up and that leaves him as yet another player you can pick up for free who might give you some 3s and not much else. Foye is stuck in the same boat, not starting but seeing significant time. In January he averaged 10.5/3.4/3.1 with 0.9 3s in 26 mpg. What is alarming is that he averaged just 0.3 steals per game in the month, while shooting 39%. Not good numbers. He’s Minnesota’s finisher at PG for the most part, but it seems unlikely he’ll supplant Mike James any time soon, so expect the time share to continue.

Add: Steven Hunter
Drop: Earl Watson
Hunter seems to have overtaken Joe Smith for the starting PF spot in Philadelphia, but I still don’t see too many more games like yesterday’s outing with 10 and 15 with 3 blocks. Hunter’s always had potential as a blocks and boards guy, and has leaped back toward the top of the league in block rate after suffering a sizeable drop last year. But he’s extremely limited on offense – his 14 FGA yesterday were a career high – and will struggle to reach double digit points on a regular basis, meaning both the boards and blocks have to be there every night for him to be worth it. The fact that he likely qualifies at center does make him a bit more attractive, but Smith will still get his minutes and Hunter isn’t likely a long-term answer. Watson’s shooting has just been too brutal to handle and Luke Ridnour looks to be working his way back into the swing of things. Watson’s minutes have gone 39-28-26 in the past three, and while only Steve Nash has been better at dropping dimes over the past two weeks, Watson’s 29% shooting in January is just crippling. He might have another flourish left in him, and if he could just stay around his career mark of 41%, those 3s and assists would give him some value, but right now he’s too cold to mess with.

Add: Jerry Stackhouse
Drop: Ike Diogu
An overreaction to one fantastic, nationally televised quarter. Stackhouse certainly had it working in the fourth against the Heat yesterday, but he still hasn’t topped 24 minutes in his nine games back from injury and simply isn’t worth using unless he’s starting. In eight games as a starter earlier this year Stack averaged 15.3/3.1/3.3 with 1.5 steals and 1 3, showing that he might still be relevant as a utility guy in deep leagues if the minutes are there. But as long as Josh Howard stays healthy, Stackhouse will be relegated to a bench role and isn’t worthy of fantasy consideration. Diogu’s obviously nowhere near having value with the Pacers and isn’t even worth stashing, but Stack isn’t much of an upgrade.

Add: Willie Green
Drop: Desmond Mason
Not that there was ever any real question, but I think we can now definitely say that Desmond Mason just isn’t a fantasy factor. He was the de facto #1 option for NOK over the past month or so and just hasn’t impressed. He’s at #156 on the 30 day rater, and now that David West and Bobby Jackson are back, it will only get worse. Green is a similar player. Right now he’s getting as many minutes as he can handle and he’s still not helping many fantasy teams. He’s started the past six contests, averaging a healthy 37.3 mpg. But his numbers leave a lot to be desired – 18.5/2.2/2.5 with 1.3 3s and 46% shooting that’s a bit misleading. Take out his 13-for-19 game and he’s sitting at 41%, which is above his career average. He’s a FG% killer who doesn’t do enough in the other categories to offset the damage there. The points and minutes make him seem enticing, but it’s a trap.

Add: Ryan Gomes
Drop: Matt Barnes
Remember how a few days ago I said I wasn’t going to have an especially short leash with Barnes? I guess I lied. He gave me a fine final performance with 12/7/5 with a pair of steals and 3s in 33 minutes (with help from an extra session), but there are just too many people competing for minutes in Golden State. Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington played 48 and 37 minutes respectively in their first games, and Baron Davis wasn’t even accounted for. It’s possible that Barnes continues to see enough time and will hit enough 3s to give him some value, but Gomes is simply playing too many minutes right now for me to leave him out on the free agent list. He’s played at least 45 minutes in the past four contests and is averaging 19.3 and 7.8 on 48/89 shooting. He simply won’t get you any 3s, steals or blocks, but I can gain some ground with just a small boost in boards and FG%, so Gomes fits my needs right now.

Add: Rudy Gay
Drop: Devin Brown
This was an astute pickup, right before the Grizzlies tipped off on Saturday. Gay was in the starting lineup that game and put up a well-rounded line of 17/5/3 with 2 3s, a block and a steal. Those are the kinds of numbers that Gay is capable of putting up most nights, but consistency has eluded him through the first half season of his career. That’s to be expected, though, and it will probably happen again. Gay’s last breakout game was the last time he was inserted into the starting lineup and it was followed with a 5/4/2 clunker and four games later he was back on the bench. The Eddie Jones situation might hold the key to whether Gay will be worth using going forward or not. If the veteran remains out of the picture, either due to injury or a buyout, Gay may get the extended chance to prove himself. But if Jones is back in the picture Gay might find consistent minutes hard to come by. He’s averaging just about a steal and block per game and a best case scenario might see him putting up Danny Granger-esque numbers. Brown is yet another Hornet who had marginal value to begin with who is now rendered fantasy irrelevant with the return of West and Jackson.

Add: Channing Frye
Drop: LaMarcus Aldridge
This was a move I made, and it’s not one I’m particularly thrilled with. I keep waiting for Aldridge to get his chance, but as long as Joel Przybilla, Jamaal Magloire and Raef LaFrentz are all around, 13-minute games like last night will be rather frequent. Andrew Bynum’s currently filling my #2 center spot and his run could be over any day when Kwame Brown gets back, so I decided to pick up Frye since he qualifies at center and is at least starting. Toss out his last game since he somehow managed to foul out in just 10 minutes, but he scored in double digits in four of the previous five. David Lee is around to take some of his minutes, and very deservedly so, giving Frye very little upside, especially considering he doesn’t block many shots. I still like Aldridge down the road this year and will be ready to pounce when the opportunity comes, but Frye is a better, if not all that great, option in the short term.

Add: Charlie Villanueva
Drop: Damon Stoudamire
Stoudamire is worthless, as I was saying last week, so there’s no harm in taking a chance on Villanueva, but I’m skeptical this story has a happy ending in 2007. Word is that Villanueva could be back within a couple of weeks, and with the Bucks missing so much scoring, the opportunity could be there for Charlie to come up big. But it doesn’t sound like there’s actually been any progress with his injury, just that it hasn’t gotten any worse. Villanueva also has to work his way back into Terry Stotts’ rotation, which theoretically shouldn’t be too tough, but he was pretty buried by the time he went on the shelf for the second time. And he’ll also have to fight for shots with Charlie Bell, Earl Boykins and Ruben Patterson, none of whom are known for their sharing skills. Depending how your roster looks right now Villanueva could be a fine use of a high-upside bench spot, but don’t get your hopes too high.

Add: Darko Milicic
Drop: Kurt Thomas
Darko has been a fairly big disappointment in fantasy circles this season, but is just a lesson that you can’t speculate too much on draft day. Milicic hasn’t been able to knock Tony Battie out of the starting lineup and it’s kept his PT down. Overall, Milicic seems to have regressed this year, mostly due to his 41% shooting, which is just unacceptable for a 7 footer who plays inside. The 1.8 bpg are nice, but he averaged 2.1 per game in slightly less time last year, and he’s averaging nearly 2 turnovers per contest as well. But people are always looking for help in the middle and Darko’s at least consistent with his blocks, although winning teams certainly wouldn’t have him anywhere near a starting lineup right now.

Add: Erick Dampier
Drop: Donyell Marshall
In deep leagues that require two centers, you can do worse than Dampier. You can obviously do a lot better, but the blocks and boards have been somewhat consistent lately. A couple early fouls, though, and you’re looking at a 2-point, 3-rebound night, just know that. Marshall just isn’t ever going to have fantasy value in Cleveland. He put up one of the great, random fantasy seasons in recent memory in 03-04 with Toronto after escaping Chicago, but he did it while receiving 39 mpg. He’s come nowhere close to that number with Cleveland and is down to 18 mpg this season. Mike Brown puts some weird-ass lineups out there. In overtime Saturday night against the Warriors Marshall was on the bench along with Drew Gooden, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Larry Hughes as the Cavs went with a crunch time lineup of Eric Snow, Sasha Pavlovic, Anderson Varejao and David Wesley along with LeBron. Uh, OK. They won the game, so I guess it worked, but still. Marshall can still be of plenty of use to the Cavs, especially come playoff time – the Wizards would have been wise to guard him in their elimination game last May – but it’s time to take him off the fantasy radar.

Add: Stephen Jackson (waiver)
Drop: Joe Smith
Jackson was dropped just a day before he was traded to Golden State and this claim was put in before he suited up for the Warriors. No doubt this owner was patting himself on the back after Jackson’s fantastic debut in which he put up 29/7/5 with 5 steals and 5 3s. Damn that’s a nice line. The five steals match Jackson’s total from the previous 12 games, so don’t get too excited there, but he might be about to go on a 3s binge. Golden State players seem to have their value in streaks and Jackson has set himself up for plenty of minutes over the next few games after his hot start. Don’t be surprised to see him reel off a bunch of games of 40+ minutes this week, which would obviously make him very valuable, although he might do some serious damage to your FG%. Jackson has never shot above 43% from the field in his career, so his owners might not want him taking 25 shots per night. I’ll definitely up his short-term prognosis, but am not convinced it’ll be clear sailing for him a month from now.

Add: Delonte West (waiver)
Drop: Ruben Patterson
West is getting the chance to prove to us that he really is a fantasy contributor. The Celtics are obviously depleted and West was part of the wounded, as he missed four games just shortly after regaining the starting PG spot. The last two games show why West was a solid choice as a waiver claim, though, as he’s averaged 19/4/8.5 with 2 3s and 2 steals in 44 mpg. There was an overtime in there, but the fact remains that he’s starting, the Celtics are depleted and Sebastian Telfair is basically a non-factor. Even with Rajon Rondo seeing decent minutes, West can still be out there all the time. West shot 49% from the field last year, and much of his value was tied in there. He’s down to 41% this season, but that number is up to 46% when he starts, and he’s still an excellent free throw shooter. West is a very solid pickup right now if you can make it happen. Patterson’s certainly worth consideration still, as he is at #89 on the 15 day rater and had another solid outing yesterday with 15 and 5 with a steal and a block on 6-of-12 shooting in 37 minutes. That’s a pretty typical line for Patterson, as he hasn’t topped 17 points in his last six and has only 4 total steals. His FG% remains strong and as long as he keeps free throwing around 70% he’s a decent utility player.

Add: Jason Williams
Drop: Stephen Jackson
Probably wishes he hadn’t given up on Jackson so soon, but J-Will has been fairly productive over the past couple weeks. His clunkers are ugly, but he’s been pretty consistent, as yesterday’s game was the first in nine contests that he didn’t register at least one steal. He looks to have most of his explosiveness back, at least for now, and has suited up for the last pair of back-to-backs. His assist numbers won’t be dominant since Dwyane Wade will take so many, but most teams can use 6 dimes and 1.5 3s and steals per game, which is roughly what Williams has been providing in January. He doesn’t have much upside these days, but is worth playing while he’s relatively hot and healthy.

With the season a few weeks old, it’s now clear that some players are overperforming while others are underperforming. So, of course, this leads to inevitable buy-low, sell-high columns. And those can surely be helpful, although to be honest, we here at FBB (and we’d think many of you out there) play with folks who have sort of caught on to the whole buy-low, sell-high thing, and probably know better than to accept that Wally Szczerbiak for Tracy McGrady deal you offered. We won’t get into buy-fake-high, sell-fake-low too much right now – if you’re not familiar here’s a column I wrote about that strategy two years ago. We’ll probably come up with a list of “buy fake high” and “sell fake low” candidates soon, by the way.

Instead, we’ll deal stick with the plain old sell high theme. I’m not at all saying that you should only stick with “buy fake high” or “sell fake low,” it’s just that everything to do with fantasy sports is about value and perceived value. Sometimes you just have to simply sell high. But it’s tough. It’s tough to trade away a player that’s playing well for you. And other times it’s not just tough, it’s really tough. I’m talking about when you’ve got a player that was a guy you really loved coming into the season and you nabbed him late in your draft and he’s playing out of his mind. Like, say, (start Ali G voice) my main man (end) Kevin Martin. The best way to succeed in fantasy is to remove any sort of emotional attachment, but that’s a lot easier said than done. One of the best things about fantasy is getting that sleeper pick right and then rubbing it in the face of everyone in your league all year. Right? I’ve watched most of the Kings games this year and I love Kevin Martin. He might be my favorite non-Wizard in the league right now. And I’m supposed to trade him because he’s putting up better numbers than he’s going to finish with?

Well, maybe. Look, even I know that Martin is going to slow down. I do believe it will only be a bit – this guy is like the new Rip Hamilton, but with more 3s and steals – but if someone were to offer me, say, Jason Terry, I’m probably going to have to make that deal. But you should never make a trade because it seems like the “right thing to do.” I only make deals when I feel good about it from all sides and if I feel that it undoubtedly makes my team better. If you’re stuck in the bottom of the standings then you have more reason to make a riskier deal, like BV was talking about yesterday, but hey, we don’t find ourselves in the bottom of the standings. Is it wrong to hold on to a guy because he’s your guy. Well, maybe, if that’s the reason. But Martin still doesn’t have much name value in a trade as MIKE said in a comment yesterday. In order to sell high, you have to actually get someone to buy high. So basically, if you’re having trouble getting rid of “your” guy, don’t feel too bad. You might very well be better off keeping him anyway. And for the record, K-Mart is for real. I will be very surprised if he doesn’t end the season in the top 50 on the player rater, and if he starts getting even more confident from long range, watch out.

Transaction Reaction seemed to get a positive, uh, reaction, when I did it on Monday, so I might just start tacking it on to my columns on Monday and Thursday from now on. Although it’s not quite a tack on when it’s twice as long as the column. And I might run out of things to say about Stephen Jackson when he’s dropped and picked up every few days. So we’ll see. It’s here for now.

November 15
Pickup: Fred Jones
Drop: Travis Outlaw
Might as well go with the starter, I suppose. The line Jones put up on Tuesday was pretty much what you can expect from him. In 35 minutes he was good for 11/2/2 with 2 3s, a steal and a block on 3-of-9 shooting. In other words, no great shakes. Jones doesn’t do anything particularly well, his best category will be 3s, even if he doesn’t take 8 every night like he did Tuesday. He was a fantasy superstar for a week or so after the brawl in 2004, regularly playing 40 minutes and being one of the featured weapons on offense, but that’s not the case right now. He’s worth a spot in deep leagues, but doesn’t have much upside. Outlaw does have some upside, but isn’t getting the starting nod with Brandon Roy out. Darius Miles’ season-ending knee surgery might make him a more interesting pickup later in the season, though. Outlaw can block shots, and he added 3 steals in 27 minutes last night. He has all the makings of another swingman whose offensive game is a work in progress but can fill up the hustle categories. It’s possible Nate McMillian will give him a chance to start at some point, but as Jarrett Jack owners found out the past few nights, the Blazers are still a very frustrating team to deal with for fantasy purposes.

Pickup: Jamal Crawford
Drop: Gary Payton
For one night, at least, it looked like the return of Steve Francis wasn’t going to bother Crawford, but then last night was another reminder of why it’s just never a good idea to have bench players in your starting lineup. Francis was awful again, but Renaldo Balkman was playing out of his mind against a clearly uninterested Wizards team that was still reeling from a tough home OT loss to the Nets on Sunday. So Balkman ate into Crawford’s minutes and Jamal finished with just 4/1/6 in 24 minutes. Still, I don’t think this is a terrible pickup. Francis could go down again, or he could move to the bench. Crawford produces when he gets minutes and he usually finds a way to get minutes, often because he stays healthy and other people don’t. He’s a decent use of a bench spot right now, but can be let go if something more interesting comes along. Payton’s managed to have a small bit of value so far because he hangs out around the three-point line so much these days. But with Jason Williams coming back within the week and Payton combining for 8/4/4 in his last two games, it’s a fine time to say goodbye. If (when?) Williams goes down again, Payton doesn’t even look to be a quality option, except perhaps in deep H2H leagues in weeks he has four games.

Pickup: Darko Milcic (waiver claim)
Drop: Stephen Jackson
The owner with the #2 waiver priority used his claim here. I don’t really blame him; I put in a claim as well (I had #9 at the time). I’m still not at all sold on Darko this season, as I think that there will be plenty of outings like last night’s 4-point, 4-turnover, 5-foul, 13-minute performance. But hey, you’ve got bench spots for a reason, right? All leagues have different number of bench spots – we’ve got three – but I usually like to use at least one on a solid, low-upside guy that I can plug into the lineup in case of an injury and use another on a high-upside guy who might have value later in the season. And Darko’s just about the perfect example of the latter. Tony Battie hasn’t done much this season, but then again he is Tony Battie. They aren’t expecting him to do much, and the Magic are winning, so no change is imminent. But if something happens and Darko gets the call, he should at the very least be a major force in blocks. And that’s worth taking a chance on. Jackson seems like he’ll be a regular in Transaction Reaction. He’s actually a pretty good example of the low-upside plug in guy to keep on your bench and I’m sure he’ll be picked up the next time he scores 18 points.

November 14
Pickup: Andres Nocioni
Drop: Earl Watson
A quick pickup after it was announced that Nocioni might be in the starting lineup on Tuesday night. Snooze and lose in our league. It wasn’t a very successful return to the starting lineup for Nocioni, though, as he totaled 11 and 5 with 2 3s before fouling out in 27 minutes. As expected, the swapping out of P.J. Brown and Ben Gordon for Nocioni and Chris Duhon had minimal effect on actual PT. Brown and Duhon still saw right around 20 minutes, Gordon got his 35, while Nocioni hovered right under 30. Nocioni’s complete lack of steals and blocks this season is pretty alarming. He’s never been particularly strong in either, but three combined through seven games is tough. I’m sure it’ll even out eventually. Still, Nocioni is a good lesson in not letting playoff stats influence next year’s draft. He was playing out of his mind against the Heat, but even Scott Skiles will tighten his rotation come playoff time. Nocioni averaged 38.3 mpg in that series. That’s just not happening this year. He should become startable if he keeps his starting spot, but he’s probably best served as one of those plug in bench guys. Earl Watson is complaining again. It’s what he does. He wanted more PT in Memphis. So he signed with Denver. He wanted more PT there. So they traded him to Seattle. Now he wants more PT. Well, he doesn’t deserve it and he’s not going to get it. Luke Ridnour is playing great ball and he’s the future there, so Watson is nothing more than a solid backup who would put up decent numbers if the guy in front of him got injured. There are a lot of guys like that in the league.

Pickup: Stephen Jackson
Drop: Eddy Curry
You can see how long Jackson lasted here. Can we even call Curry a disappointment at this point? I don’t think so. I mean, he gives you around 14 and 7 on solid shooting from the field, bad shooting from the line, and absolutely nothing else. It wouldn’t be surprising to see one of the more center-desperate teams in the league pick him up after he clears waivers, but that’s why you don’t want to be a center-desperate team. The team that dropped Curry already had Chris Wilcox, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Zaza Pachulia, Andris Biedrins, Channing Frye and now Darko. That’s six center-eligible players. Curry makes no sense for that team. 

Pickup: Delonte West (waiver)
Drop: Antoine Wright
A waiver claim for West? Well, it’s part of this owner’s strategy. He had the third pick in the draft, giving him a waiver priority of 10. He used that on Leandro Barbosa after the season’s first game, when all non-drafted players were still on waivers, knocking him down to the lowest waiver priority. So now his thinking is that if there’s ever a player he likes that gets dropped, there’s no harm in using the waiver priority to grab him. I actually like this strategy plenty, as waiver priorities are more often than not saved for a player that just doesn’t show up. It makes more sense to hold onto it in AL or NL only baseball leagues since you might have new players come into the league, but there’s not going to be anybody added to the game here. All that said, West seems an odd choice. He’s back to the bench now that Szczerbiak’s ass is better and after a solid outing on Monday, he had one of those “that’s why you don’t mess with bench players” games last night. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Celtics if (when) Doc Rivers gets axed. Wright has disappointed people who have had him in the lineup for the past few games, and it’s not for lack of opportunity as he’s seen between 35 and 38 minutes in each of those three games. But he hasn’t hit a single 3 and hasn’t really looked for his offense.

November 13
Pickup: Channing Frye
Drop: Jamal Crawford
Frye’s turned it on a bit in the last two games and his starting job appears safe, but David Lee is still clearly outplaying him and that hurts Frye’s value. With Lee deserving at least 25 minutes per game, that’s going to make it very tough for Frye to see much more than that and the 28 and 27 he’s received the last two games. Lee makes a lot more sense for the Knicks right now, anyway. Frye’s pretty much a jump shooter, and he loves to shoot. Just like most people on the Knicks, except for Lee (and Balkman). So when Lee’s out there, he really adds another element to the Knicks attack, and he’s just a great rebounder. So those in deep leagues that held on to Frye or picked up him recently, you have to be encouraged by recent developments. But he’s still nowhere near a safe start and belongs on benches until he strings together consecutive strong – not decent, but strong – outings.

Pickup: Chucky Atkins
Drop: Darko Milicic
A gutsy move that at least in the very short term looks pretty genius. And by very short term I mean last night. We already went over Darko’s horrid night, but how about Chucky Atkins exploding for 27 points on 10-of-11 shooting after going scoreless in the first half? What was most surprising was the way he went about it, attempting only two shots from downtown. There was a game early last year when Atkins was still on the Wizards when was unconscious from three-point land and led the Wiz to a win in Detroit. Tonight he was picking apart the Sacramento D. Still, despite starting he played just 24 minutes to Damon Stoudamire’s 34 off the bench, and I have this feeling Chucky’s not going to average a point per minute most nights. Call it a hunch. He’s worth consideration while he’s starting but has yet to top 26 minutes in a game this year that hasn’t gone to triple overtime. The Grizzlies are off to a predictably terrible start and there could be a shakeup over there. If Mike Fratello leaves, it could leave the PT situation for just about everyone up in the air, so pay attention.

Pickup: Matt Harpring
Drop: Alonzo Mourning
I like Harpring a lot, but at this point in his career he’s much more valuable to his real team than your fantasy team. He will definitely see a bump in playing time with Andrei Kirilenko out, but Ronnie Brewer certainly didn’t do anything to make Jerry Sloan take him out of the starting lineup with his performance the other night. Being able to bring Harpring and Derek Fisher off the bench gives the Jazz two proven veterans, which is something you know Jerry Sloan loves. But Harpring is a guy who is unlikely to see more than 30 mpg coming off the bench and won’t give you much at all in 3s, steals and blocks. He’s an incredible efficient, high-percentage scorer, and that’s where his value’s always been, but he’ll need every game to be like his last two in order to be worth starting in most leagues. As you well know, we just don’t trust bench players, not when there are likely more reliable options out there. Mourning was dropped right before Shaq sat out again. He hasn’t been nearly as good this season as he was filling in for Shaq last season, but teams in need of a quick fix at center might as well give him a shot, although it’s hard to tell how long Shaq will be out for.

Here’s the first of what could be a new column. We play in what I think is a good league to use as a barometer of what’s going on in the fantasy landscape. It’s a very competitive 12-team league, the usual 10 starters, a three-person bench, 8 category cumulative roto, with a first-come, first-served free agent list. So this should give you an idea of who’s been picked up, dropped, traded, and thoughts on those players.

November 12
Pickup: LaMarcus Aldridge
Drop: Delonte West

Guess BV liked what he saw from Aldridge in the rookie’s debut last night against the Mavs. He looked like he belonged, that’s for sure, and was especially spry compared to the slow-footed Jamaal Magloire. They both played 19 minutes and it was Aldridge out there in crunch time against the defending Western Conference champs. He put up 10 and 8, with 6 of those boards coming on the offensive end. It was an impressive debut and he could be in for more PT, but that’s no sure thing. But it sure looks like Magloire’s days as a fantasy factor are over. He barely resembles the player who put up 14 and 10 in 03-04. We’ll see what happens when Joel Przybilla comes back, but this could be a situation that’s a fantasy disaster. More on West below.

Trade: Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachuila
Trade: Jameer Nelson, Charlie Villanueva

An interesting deal, here. From the looks of things, the team getting Bibby/Pachulia is the clear winner, since they got the best player in the deal (Bibby) and a quality big man in Pachulia. But I think it’s more even than that. I’m a big Bibby fan, and while his shooting will certainly improve, he’s dropped off enough over the past couple years that what once was a strength is now a slight weakness. Still, he’s a perfectly good bet for 20/3.5/6 with a bunch of 3s and some steals. Pachulia seems to be a reasonable sell high candidate at this point; he got off to a similarly fast start last year before dropping off a bit. Lorenzen Wright has been a non-factor and it could be until Marvin Williams returns that Pachulia’s value takes a serious hit. Solid #2 center. Jameer Nelson seems to have held off the first threat by Carlos Arroyo and has responded with three straight strong outings. I’m still a believer in him, although he’s as much a SG as a PG. Villanueva will have his off games, but like him this year. He loves to shoot and he gets his rebounds. Even if he doesn’t excel at 3s, steals or blocks, he should get enough to give him plenty of value as long as he maintains his 15 and 8, which I expect him to do, if not improve upon.

Pickup: Jerry Stackhouse
Drop: Stephen Jackson

Stackhouse has filled in quite nicely for Josh Howard so far, averaging 17/3/4.3 with 1 3 and a surprising 2.3 steals in a healthy 36.3 mpg. The Mavs have reeled off a couple of wins in a row with all of the offense going through Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry and Stackhouse, so feel free to get Stackhouse in your lineup and take advantage of this opportunity before Howard comes back. Howard won’t be in any danger of losing his starting job, so don’t worry if you have him. Jackson is an interesting drop. He’s always been a terrible shooter, but he won’t stay this bad. His looming court date could cost him some PT, but more often than not players avoid missing time in situations like these. Jackson could be the exception for all his past transgressions. On the court, Danny Granger could be surpassing Jackson as Indiana’s #3 option behind Jermaine O’Neal and Al Harrington, but Jackson should still be a low-upside source of 3s and steals, probably worth a bench spot in most leagues as long as he’s not incarcerated.

Pickup: Jeff Foster
Drop: Brent Barry

This team obviously feels the need to have a veteran white guy on its bench. Barry had a few hot games where he couldn’t miss from downtown, but he’s just not a fantasy option coming off the San Antonio bench. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are the only Spurs who are reliable fantasy options, and that’s how it’s going to be all year unless they get devastated by injuries. That’s just how it is. Don’t bother with anyone else. Hard to understand why Foster was picked up. Even when Jermaine O’Neal was out Foster didn’t get the start, so that should mean he’s not even worth keeping an eye on. He’s certainly one of the best rate rebounders in the league, but you’ve gotta be real desperate to go after him.

November 11
Pickup: Stromile Swift
Drop: Eddie Jones

One Grizz for another Grizz. Swift started in the middle in just his second game back, and it wasn’t the greatest outing, but he’s worth a roster spot, especially at the expense of Eddie Jones who looks to have a whole utensil set sticking out of his back at this point. (I jettisoned him just a few days into the season, myself.) It would be silly to expect too much from Swift, but he did work his way up to 30 minutes last night. He has shown an ability to block shots, so he could have some value. But remember, this is his seventh season in the league. It would be surprising if he ever becomes more than an inconsistent #2 center for fantasy purposes. Jones might heat up as the season goes on, but he’s been horrible and has topped 30 minutes just twice in six games. He belongs on the free agent list. Mike Miller is the only member of the Grizzlies that can be trusted right now.

Pickup: Delonte West
Drop: Jalen Rose

This was a move by BV, basically using a free roster spot to take a shot on a guy who was a top contributor last year and might have some short term value. Wally Szczerbiak missed Saturday night’s game with an ass, so West took his spot in the starting lineup. He did a nice job in 39 minutes – 12/5/4 with a block and a pair of 3s – and as long as he’s starting, he certainly has a bit of value. But he’s also the kind of guy you can let go right away if something else comes along that you like, as BV did. Rose was a pure speculation pickup, thinking he might be able to be this year’s Tim Thomas. Not happening now, not likely to happen later.

Pickup: Travis Outlaw
Drop: Nene Hilario

Swapping out a guy who may have some short-term value due to an injury for another who looks to be missing out on his chance at having some short-term value due to an injury. Brandon Roy is out for at least a week, likely more, and Outlaw has a chance to reap the fantasy benefits, although it doesn’t look too likely. He did put up 16 and 6 with a staggering 6 blocks in 32 minutes after Roy left early on Saturday, but Martell Webster seems to be Nate McMillian’s choice to replace Roy in the starting lineup. Outlaw has received more minutes, but between those two and Juan Dixon there are plenty of bodies to replace Roy, and McMillian can just ride the hot hand each night. As for Nene, his most recent knee injury might not be too serious, but it seems clear that he’s nowhere near playing 30+ minutes in a starting role with Kenyon Martin out.

Pickup: Antoine Wright
Drop: Channing Frye

A quick pickup after news broke that Richard Jefferson could be out for up to two months. A month or so ago you’d see this transaction and think there was some sort of typo, but it makes sense despite Wright scoring just a single point in 34 minutes on Sunday. After being mostly invisible in his rookie season Wright lit it up in the preseason and it has carried over into the regular season. In the two games prior to Sunday he averaged 15.5 ppg with 2 3s in 29.5 mpg. He’s replacing Jefferson in the starting lineup, but as he proved yesterday, that doesn’t mean he’s automatically getting Jefferson’s numbers. Someone will need to pick up the scoring slack in New Jersey, though. Vince Carter’s already about maxed out at what he can do and Kidd is still obviously more of a distributor. Look for Nenad Krstic to see an expanded role, as he attempted 18 shots yesterday, so he should be an especially strong play for the next month. If Wright can maintain consistent minutes, it’s not unreasonable to expect around 12 ppg with some 3s. If you picked up Wright, be encouraged by the fact that even though Marcus Williams and Bostjan Nachbar were much more effective yesterday, Wright still saw more minutes. As for Frye, he’s been absolutely terrible and even in a league in which 156 players are on rosters, it’s a fine move to drop him. He’s certainly worth keeping an eye on, but he’s been bad enough to stay away from for the time being. His 4-point, 5-foul, 13-minute performance Saturday night might be the final straw for Isiah. We’ll see.

November 10
Pickup: Kendrick Perkins
Drop: Theo Ratliff

This is a move I made, and it was after Perkins strong effort off the bench Friday night. I made the opposite move a few days earlier (I picked up Perkins after he was dropped a few days earlier), but it was apparent that in Ratliff’s first few games back he’s not going to be a long-term answer in the middle for the Celtics. Sure enough he was back inactive on Saturday night. Perkins had a disappointing first couple weeks, but he’s still the same guy who I liked coming into the season and was a 10^th round pick. I’m desperate for center help with Joel Przybilla already out and Jermaine O’Neal already shaky. Perkins’ solid outing Saturday night has me hoping that he might be able to fulfill those expectations of being a #2 center. More realistically, he’s better served as a #3 center to plug in when one of your top two goes down, at least for the time being.

Pickup: Nene Hilario
Drop: Al Jefferson

After K-Mart got hurt and before Nene went down. It was worth a shot, he did have the most upside of that handful of Denver reserve PFs. As for Jefferson, he was playing solid ball but is going to need to work his way back into shape and into the rotation when he comes back. He could still be a factor in the second half of the season, so be ready to grab him when it looks like he’s ready to come back. I’ve always been skeptical of Jefferson, but that had more to do with his perceived value than actual talent.

Pickup: Mickael Pietrus
Drop: Damon Stoudamire

It’s easy to get the feeling that Don Nelson is going to make it so that plenty of Warriors will be on and off the free agent list all season. Pietrus was great in his most recent start, going for 18/5/5 with 4 3s and a steal in a win over NOK. He’s shooting out of his mind right now, 53% from the field and 50% from long range. His career averages are 42% and 34%. In other words, enjoy it while you can. Maybe this is when he’s finally putting it together, but I’m not buying it. And just Saturday night, he was back coming off the bench, albeit with an efficient 13 points in 20 minutes. Stoudamire’s been awful, and he might be done, but he might just be off to a slow start. He got off to a similarly pathetic start last year – 30% shooting in his first seven games – but picked it up a bit before going down for the year. Chucky Atkins replaced him in the starting lineup last night and Stoudamire promptly had his best outing of the year. I’m going to keep my eye on both of them, but it’s a situation to avoid for now.

November 9
Pickup: David Lee
Drop: Andres Nocioni

One bench guy who could be starting soon for another bench guy who doesn’t seem like that opportunity will be there soon. We talked about Frye’s impossibly bad play, and it might just be a matter of time until Lee takes his place in the lineup. Lee had another solid game Saturday night, needing just 5 shots to get his 8 points, while also grabbing 8 boards and 2 steals in 22 minutes. Makes you wonder why the Knicks gave $30 million to Jared Jeffries when Lee already does whatever Jeffries can do, but a lot better. It’s hard to know what Isiah will do, but Lee has earned his shot. He’ll be a great source of boards and steals should his opportunity come, and he’s a high percentage, if low volume shooter. Nocioni’s playing fine, even if he’s not hitting 3s like he was at the end of the season last year. But with Luol Deng seemingly entrenched as the starter at the SF position, Nocioni’s best chance of starting would be to replace P.J. Brown. It makes sense, but that doesn’t mean Skiles will do it. He’s long been fond of starting one player at PF (Malik Allen, anyone?) and ending the game with someone else. Monitor Nocioni, but he’s not valuable right now.

Pickup: Monta Ellis
Drop: Earl Boykins

It’s looking good for Monta Ellis. Jason Richardson returned to the starting lineup Saturday night, but Ellis kept his starting spot as Pietrus and Mike Dunleavy came off the bench. Ellis didn’t have his best game – 12/2/4 with 4 turnovers in 29 minutes – but it was a blowout win for the Warriors, which bodes well for his chances to stay in the starting lineup moving forward. Ellis looks to be a player in the Ben Gordon mold – not much more than points, but he can get them in bunches. He’s not a gunner from long range, but takes enough to be good for around 1.5 per game if he keeps starting. None of his other numbers jump out, but if the minutes are there, the value is too. Again, though, Golden State can’t really be trusted yet. Boykins is Denver’s second leading scorer so far, and his 4.8 apg are nice, but his shooting has been just brutal. He’s strictly a 25-28 mpg player and doesn’t have much upside beyond what he’s doing now.