At least, I think that’s how you say it.

But anyhow, it’s true, we’re calling it wraps on Fantasy Basketblog.  As with most blogs, real life ended up getting in our way and we just don’t have the time anymore.  It might be a lame excuse, but it is what it is.  I never wanted to have one of those blogs that gets updated like every few days or few weeks or whatever - I always liked that we would have something up every day.  Once that stopped happening, I think that was the beginning of the end.
We like to think we had a great run, something like 3 or 4 years there, and it was plenty of fun.  Among my favorite things from the last few years:

- Stromile Swift, just in general
- The reader mock draft

- Having Dr. A (confirmed - not really a doctor) actually respond that one time that we called him out.

- That one dude who kept on telling us we didn’t know what we were talking about.

- Other people actually believing that we did know what we were talking about.

- Having an “Eddie Griffin Memorial”  list a good 2 years before Eddie Griffin passed away.

- Being adamant about how Kirk Hinrich was easily the most dependable pick in the early-mid rounds this year.

- Realizing that I could shorten “New! Updated! Top 20!” to “NUT!20″.  Hey, it’s the little things.
- Comcast accidentally giving me free League Pass for like 3 months.

- Picking Dwyane Wade his rookie year with the last pick of the draft.

But mostly, of course, I liked the little FBB community we built, with so many regular commenters.  It’s been a nice ride, and we might try and get this thing started up again sometime, but for now … Go Wizards.

For those of you who are left out there still reading this site, we appreciate it. Obviously the updates have been lacking, and there have been several trades over the past few weeks involving major fantasy players (Gasol, Kidd, etc.) that we have not commented on. By now, not only are the affects of the trade observable, but other sites have covered these transactions ad nauseum. We’ll skip trying to get caught up with old news but will hopefully be back on a more consistent basis, as we usually do, with giving you a fresh fantasy perspective. Now for the big news of the day:

Injury Updates:

Yao Ming (Hou, C): Yao was having a fantastic season, averaging nearly 22/11/2 with 2 blocks per game and, as always, great percentages. As it turns out, he has a stress fracture in his left foot and will be out for the rest of the season. If I owned him, I might wait until they determine how they will treat the injury before dropping him, but it seems like he’ll be out the rest of the season to ensure that he’s healthy for the Beijing Olympics. Obviously this is a catastrophic loss on the hottest team in the NBA right now. This leaves Houston with a major problem at center; the only players on the roster that have adequate size are Dikembe Mutombo and Steve Novak. Mutombo had a good stint filling in for an injured Yao last year, pulling down large amounts of rebounds, but he has barely played all year; Novak isn’t really a low-post presence. It will be interesting to see where the Rockets go with this turn of events. If they elect to play a smaller lineup of Luis Scola and Carl Landry, whom they really like, then expect both of their numbers to go up. This injury is difficult, as Yao makes his teammates (including guards) better by taking offensive and defensive pressure off of them. I expect that watching the next Houston game will provide much insight about who will gain value from this situation. If you have space, pick up Landry on speculation.

A more pressing issue is where to draft Yao next year. He’s a first-round talent when healthy, but the key word is when. After playing nearly every game in his first three years, Yao has averaged only 53 games per season over the last three. While his injured are not related, the fact is that as a 7′6″ big man with limited athleticism, he’ll probably struggle with injuries off and on throughout his career. It’ll be interesting to see how it ends up impacting his draft stock next year.

Elton Brand (LAC, FC): Obviously Brand has been out all year, but word is that he’ll be returning sometime soon. If you had Yao, I would recommend picking up Brand (if he’s still available) as he could reproduce the 1st round value that was lost with Yao. I don’t understand why the Clippers would let him play, but if he wants to see the floor, he will…and word is that he’s hungry. When he returns, expect Chris Kaman’s production to decrease.

I know the rumors were out there, but did anyone seriously believe this trade was going to go down? In a surprising move by penny-pinching Robert Sarver, the Phoenix Suns will send Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal pending a physical on Wednesday. Not to jump the gun, but lets take a quick look at the fantasy breakdown for each team:

Phoenix Suns:

With a healthy O’Neal, Amare Stoudamire will slide down to his natural PF spot. It’s a mystery how O’Neal will blend with the run and gun methodology that Steve Nash and company employ, but it’s same to assume that Shaq, when healthy, will have fantasy value in points, boards and blocks with numbers similar to his season averages. However, in reality, I think this move will benefit the Sun’s wingmen - Hill, Bell and Diaw - the most. One of the big questions is how healthy Shaq can remain; if he is injured, expect a near 6-man rotation between these five Suns and Barbosa. With the extra shots to go around and boards to grab, nearly all Suns players should see a small boost in numbers. Diaw, in particular, would promise to have some of the extra value he had during Grant Hill’s injury absence and if he’s available you may want to stash him on your bench right now.

Miami Heat:

Way to go and turn around the franchise just like that. Instead of hemorrhaging money on Kazzam, they pair Dwayne Wade with a premier wing-player and defender in Marion. I’m not sure if the Heat are interested in giving Marion an extension, but regardless they’ll save lots of money and it may help in resigning Wade and also make the Heat more competitive in the short run. With this change in scenery, we’ll see if Marion benefited from a Nash Effect, similar to the impact Jason Kidd has on his teammates. My guess is that both Wade and Marion can coexist and get their numbers, keeping their value; the real question of value goes to the fringe guys like Ricky Davis, Dorrell Wright and Daequan Cook. It will be interesting to see what position they play Marion at (SF or PF) and that will impact the value of these other players. The last piece of the puzzle is the addition of Marcus Banks. Banks, whose contract the Suns have been trying to offload, will serve as a capable starting PG if Jason Williams is sidelined with injury. In 29 games starting for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2005, Banks averaged 12/5/3 with 1+ steals, an occasional 3PTM and good percentages in 30 minutes per. Banks is still very young and could easily end up gaining the most fantasy value out of any player involved on these two teams; as such it would be wise to add him to your watch list.

As crazy as the Gasol trade was for fantasy purposes, this is perhaps even more shocking as one of the top fantasy players in the game (Marion) changes teams and conferences. I really didn’t believe the trade at first until I saw it confirmed on Yahoo! sports. In a strange way, it kind of makes sense for both teams, though in the Suns case it will depend on Shaq’s health. It’s uncertain how some key elements of this trade will play out and I’m sad that the Suns no longer have three first-round fantasy selections (as they were the only team with that distinction), but it’ll certainly be fun to follow and watch.

Now back to studying for my midterm tomorrow. Thank Jago for distracting me and thus motivating me to write this bit up…but if I take another break tonight it’ll be to run down to the bar and have one drink for Mardi Gras. Cheers!

At this point in the season it is pretty vital to stay sharp in watching the injuries and transactions that go down in the league. Making the right roster moves at this point can set you up for long term success riding into the fantasy playoffs. A few examples:

Randy Foye:
Tonight Foye made his season debut against Chicago and, while he didn’t set the world on fire, showed a very promising return for the second year player. He put up 11 points on 4/8 shooting and included a 3PTM. It’ll be interesting to see how the playing time shakes out once Foye returns to full game form. However, Minnesota intends to build around Al Jefferson and Foye, and his development will take precedence over providing PT for the likes of Sebastian Telfair, Rashad McCants or especially Marko Jaric. I fully expect him to finish out the year strong with numbers similar to what he produced in April of last season: 15/4/4 with 1 STL and 1+ 3PTM.

Elton Brand:
In the last 24 hours, both Brand and Foye have been picked up in both of my leagues. At this point it’s unsure how fast Brand will exactly return, but he’s been cleared to participate in full running and jumping exercises, and upon hearing the news Brand immediately went to work out. It seems that Elton has been missing the court, and even if he doesn’t come back at 100%, he’ll be a significant fantasy force. He rated out at #6 overall on the average player rater last season and is a huge wildcard. For those in H2H leagues, it might not be too early to stash him on your bench. Chris Kaman owners beware of the trickle down impacts that will be felt when Brand finally makes it back to the court and starts to get his share of the points and boards from Kaman.

(Potential) Trade Fallout:
Anyone else hear about Jason Kidd’s trade demands? This could really shake up the roster on a couple of NBA teams, and bring certain players both into and out of fantasy significance. More than anyone else, keep Marcus Williams on your watch list, as when Kidd goes out it’s likely he’ll get the starting nod and put up great numbers (as Point Guards tend to do). Teams including Dallas and Portland have been linked as potential trade partners, and it’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Other Notes:
Kareem Rush came off the bench today, which may not be a great sign; he is somewhat injured and his shot struggled in the last few games and was replaced in the Pacer’s starting lineup by Travis Diener, who put up 18 points tonight. A good example of what playing time does for good, young reserve players…look no further than Leon Powe or fantasy tease Andray Blatche. Powe filled in for an injured KG and responded with career highs of 25 and 11, while Blatche went off for 19/8 while achieving the coveted 1/1/1 blocks, steals and 3PTM stat line. Chris Webber signed with the Golden State Warriors today; it’s uncertain how he’ll respond to Nellie Ball, but it’s possible he could supplant Al Harrington in the starting lineup. Webber probably won’t create as much fantasy value for himself as he might steal numbers from Harrington and Andris Biedrins.

Hey everyone. First off, I want to address the issue with the site not being updated very frequently over the course of the last couple of weeks. Pretty much, we all happened to get quite busy at the same time with work, school and other obligations. But hopefully we’ll be back on track soon with the regular daily updates. Now onto the fantasy game:

Kareem Rush, SG:
STAT: Averaging 16 PPG on 47% FG w/ 2.8 3PTM and 1 STL in six January starts.
Rush has been playing great since entering the starting lineup, where he is averaging more than 30 minutes per game. The Pacers have decided to go small and start Danny Granger at the 4, as Rush has been in the starting lineup along the side of O’Neal, Murphy and Foster all in the center role, so it seems that his role is unlikely to change. Looking at his career numbers it is unlikely that he will continue shooting at the same accuracy, but with JO contemplating shutting it down for the season and Marquis Daniels struggling with injuries, Rush is a good bet so ride him while he’s hot.

Gilbert Arenas, PG:
Why would we even be talking about this guy? Well, news indicates that he may return to the lineup sometime soon after the All-Star break, about one month ahead of schedule. If you’re in a league where Arenas was dropped, then it might be time to think about picking him up and stashing him away. Even if he’s not 100%, the Hibachi will make a fantasy impact and can be the playoff push needed for those in H2H leagues.

Linas Kleiza, SF:
The man who poured in a 41-point performance only last week may get an extended chance to hoist up shots and show what kind of a player he is. Looking at his stats, it is clear that whenever he gets 30+ minutes he puts up numbers of fantasy value. Though he recently started in place of Kenyon Martin, he’ll now fill-in for the injured Carmelo Anthony. Kleiza is a good source of points, threes, and boards while keeping decent percentages, and he’s another guy who should be picked up in a hurry to capitalize on his potential.

Jordan Farmar, PG:
I usually subscribe to the doctrine that players coming off their team’s bench shouldn’t be on a fantasy roster (with the obvious exceptions like Manu Ginobli, Ben Gordon and Travis Outlaw). However, the former UCLA Bruin has been playing excellent ball lately while helping his team win eight of the last nine games. In January, Farmar has averaged 21 minutes and contributed 12.4 PPG with about 2 3PTM, 1.5 STL and 3 ASTs per contest. Very cautiously, if you are in the need of PG help or 3PTM, then he is someone to consider and is someone that is showing signs of great fantasy value in the future.

Thabo Sefolosha, GF:
One of the guys who has been buried in the Bull’s guard rotation is Sefolosha, who has shown signs of being a very good player. More than anything else, he gives the Bull’s a defensive specialist, which unfortunately doesn’t always translate to the fantasy game as much as it probably should. Although he has been somewhat inconsistent, since entering the starting lineup he has averaged 10 PPG, 6 Rebs, and 2 STLs per game in 30 minutes. Furthermore, he’s contributed decent percentages and will add an occasional three-pointer. He might not be ready to pick up quite yet, but if you have a bench spot to hold onto someone who could develop fantasy value, look no further than my man Thabo Sefolosha.

In fantasy basketball, it’s not what you’ve done for me all year - it’s not even what you’ve done for me lately.  It’s what I think you’re going to do for me tomorrow.  Every month, as I put together my New! Updated! Top 20! column, I’ve got to look at names at the top of the APR that don’t look like they belong, and that’s the question I have to ask myself - even more than what they did last month, what can I expect them to do next month?  Right now we’ve got a couple of guys who are experiencing breakout years, and while they might not qualify for Top 20 consideration (though at least 1 or 2 of these guys do), let’s at least discuss them a little in depth and see if we think we can trust them to keep up their efforts.

Chris Kaman - I think that any draft-steal, breakout-player conversation has to start with Kaman, who’s been playing completely out of his mind all year.  Not only that, but it seems fairly sustainable.  He really dipped in production last year, but if you account for his hamstring issues that he fought all season, his 18.59 PER for this year is actually fairly reasonable.  He’s not shooting an un-typically high percentage, and a lot of his statistical surge can be chalked up to his additional minutes, which I don’t see dropping any time soon.  To me, the concern isn’t so much with Kaman as it is with his teammates - he’s averaged under 10 shots per game over his last three, and there’s concern that he’s not vocal enough to demand the ball when he’s not seeing enough touches.  I don’t think that’s an issue - Coach Mike Dunleavy has been a big supporter and I think if this keeps up Dunleavy will see to it that Kaman gets his shots.  There will be a touch of sell-high fever if this keeps up another game or two, and I think you might be able to grab Kaman at a discount if you time it right.  He’s definitely trustable at around 4th round value right now, and could be worth 2nd or 3rd round consideration in the right circumstances.

Hedo Tukoglu - Pretty funny how the Magic went out and spent a kajillion dollars on the real Rashard Lewis, when really they had their own version on their team the whole time.  Turkoglu, like Kaman, had a disappointing year last year which makes his improvement all the more staggering.  Also like Kaman, Turkoglu has really seen the benefit of more playing time, and that’s been the real cause for his breakout season.  But there are other, subtler things going on as well, like his greater involvement in the offense - Turkoglu is still primarily a jump shooter, but he’s taking more jump shots than ever before, and because he’s always been a decent percentage guy, this has been only good news for his owners.  The problem for Turkoglu is that he’s got much more of a history than Kaman, and he’s much older - at 28 years old, the improvement is much less likely to last. While he’s definitely improved his value this year, his 27 spot on the APR is somewhere between way too high and a little too high - I’d have trouble convincing myself he’s got anything better than 5th round value right now, and even if he keeps this up all year I still wouldn’t touch him before the 4th next year.

Rudy Gay - Now this is the kind of breakout season we all can enjoy.  There are virtually no red flags here - the kid is only 21 years old, he’s in his second year, he showed plenty of promise last year, it’s his first shot at consistent starter’s minutes, and he’s making the most of them.  In fact, pretty much the only bad thing you can say about him is that even though his stats are so good, his team still stinks - but there are plenty of others to shoulder that blame (Pau Gasol, anyone?).  Yes the jump seems a little severe at first glance, but when you split last year in half and look at his progression from pre-All Star break to post-break to this year as three pieces, it looks very reasonable.  The only question at this point is, how much can he improve now?  HIs stats have been slowly improving month-to-month even, and at this rate he could be putting up 25/8 by April with big numbers in threes and steals.  Right now he’s at 33 on the APR and I think that’s actually pretty accurate as far as his overall value goes too, but I’d bet you can probably get him a little cheaper than that.

Brad Miller - This one really only makes a little bit of sense.  Like Kaman and Turkoglu, Miller struggled through injuries last year which deflated his numbers across the board, but he also is older than both of them at 31 and has quite a bit of mileage on him.  He looked to be left for dead by the end of last year and there wasn’t much reason to think he’d be any better than a C2 for the rest of his career.  This year, though, has been a nice mini-resurgence as he’s gone back to being an asset pretty much across the board.  With pretty much the entire Kings starting lineup injured, Miller’s returned as a fantasy force.  It’s not like his per-minute numbers ever took too big of a hit - it was his minutes more than anything that suffered last year.  The issues for Miller are two - limited upside and lingering injury risk.  I guess you could say there are three risks as there’s always the possibility that the Kings throw in the towel on the season and throw Spencer Hawes to the wolves (not the T-Wolves, the actual wolves), but I don’t think that’s really a possibility as that approach doesn’t work to well for young bigs - it usually damages their confidence more than anything else.  But the lack of upside and injury risk are very real for Miller, and that will keep him at probably around a 7th round value or so rather than at the 5th round, where he’s playing right now.

I like talking about rookies because they’re the biggest wild card every year.  With veterans, you pretty much know what you’re going to get outside of the minutes, but rookies and young guys can improve dramatically during the year and their value can change a lot from December to March.

There are a couple of factors, though, that can work against rookies as they work their way through their first NBA year as well.  Not every rookie is going to have better value as the year goes on.  One major issue is the stamina issues that rooks have as they go through their first NBA season.  This doesn’t rear it’s head all that often, especially as basketball has been pretty much a year-round sport for these guys since they were in their early teens, but it’s still worth considering.

The other thing to think about is what kind of a team the player is on.  If they’re on a contending squad, they might find themselves on the outside looking in as coaches tighten their lineups for the playoff push.  A good example is a guy like Nick Young, the rookie shooting guard for the Wizards.  He’s shown flashes of fantasy value with his knack for scoring and his long-range shooting, but once March and April come around, Wizards coach Eddie Jordan will likely tighten his lineup and stick with his veterans, unless Young makes an unbelievable improvement in his game.  It’s not that these rookies aren’t good enough to play late in the year, but rather the coaches just like to go with guys who have experience when the stakes are high.

On the other end of the spectrum are guys on non-contending teams.  A good example of this is a guy like Mike Conley, Jr., who hasn’t been on the fantasy spectrum at all this year - due to injuries, sure, but also he’s struggled to get past Damon Stoudamire and Kyle Lowry on the depth chart - but could definitely be handed the keys to the team come March and be a Top-15 point guard over the last month of the season.  So with this in mind, let’s discuss a few guys and see if they might have a lot more value or a lot less come the end of the year:

Sean Williams, NJ - Williams is one of the biggest wild cards out there right now.  On the plus side, he’s an incredible shot-blocker and can pick up points and boards in bunches.  Also on the plus side, he’s been starting for six games in a row and while the results have been mixed, they’re been more positive than negative.  But there’s just so much uncertainty right now in New Jersey that you really can’t say with any certainty what he’ll be doing come March.  If the Nets decide to start over and dump Jason Kidd, then Williams should be playing major minutes down the stretch.  If they decide to give it another shot, Williams’ inconsistent play could force him back to the bench come spring.  And that’s without even considering the possible return of Nenad Krstic, and what that will do to the rotation.  Williams’ high-risk, high-reward value (both in the short and long terms) mean he should probably be on a team at the bottom of the standings that is willing to take that risk to get back in the race.

Yi Jianlian, Mil - Yi has been one of the nicest surprises we’ve seen this year, putting up decent if not spectacular numbers, and he’s really playing well lately - he followed up his huge, 29/10 performance with a couple more nice double-digit scoring games and he’s shooting pretty well from the field.  I would expect things to only get better for Yi as the year goes on.  Not only are the Bucks a pretty weak contender for the playoffs, meaning Yi won’t be subject to any rotation-tightening, but he’s not likely to suffer from any fatigue issues either.  The last Chinese player to make the move to the NBA like this, Yao Ming, improved nicely in the second half of his rookie campaign and I’d like to think that Yi can do the same.  If he’s on you waive wire, I’d grab him for sure, and he might even be worth targeting if his owners are worried that he’s just on a hot streak.  I’d look for numbers close to 15/8 after the All-Star break.

Al Horford, Atl - I drafted Horford late this year and I couldn’t be happier with the results, and I’d imagine other Horford owners feel the same way.  Unfortunately, I’m a little worried about how he’s going to do down the stretch.  Horford spend the majority of his time battling down in the paint, and that can wear against a player a lot more than those that spend their time hanging out around the perimiter.  I’m not too worried about his minutes, as he’s clearly outplaying his competition in Atlanta, but the wear and tear of the NBA season could be pretty tough on his fantasy value, which isn’t exactly spectacular.  If you can find an owner out there who thinks that Horford will improve over the rest of the year, I’d think about moving him for ther right price.

So the big news this week in NBA land has been the cold-hearted firing of Scott Skiles - on Christmas Eve, no less!  But it’s not like you could find many reasons for keeping him around.  Yes, the Bulls tend to start slow every year, but this year the drought has been longer than normal, there’s been few signs of them pulling out of their funk, and there was clearly some discontent amongst the players.

So what does this mean for your fantasy Bulls players?  It seems like things can only go up from here - some of the biggest disappointments of the year have been in Chicago, and Skiles is a big fan of lineup-tweaking, making for unpredictable minutes and even more unpredictable performances.  Let’s take a look at who has the most to gain and the most to lose from a fantasy perspective over the next few weeks for the Bulls:

Ben Wallace - Wallace pretty much has to be the big winner here, for his own sake.  To put it another way, if he doesn’t turn it around with a new coach, he’s run out of excuses.  This was GM John Paxson’s big decision when the Bulls had all that cap room and a high draft pick two summers ago - he went with Wallace and Ty Thomas over Tyson Chandler and LaMarcus Aldridge.  While it’s clear to most of us that he made a pretty awful decision, with no real head coach to stand tall again Paxson, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Paxson force his big investment onto the floor a little more.  It’s no secret that Wallace and SKiles weren’t exactly best of friends - it only took a month before Headbandgate was in full swing, and Wallace was disappointing last year and has been absolutely awful this year.  But remember what he supposedly told Paxson last week - “He quit on us, so we’ve quit on him.”  He didn’t exactly have nice things to say to the press either after the firing and he should be a little pumped up and playing with a little more energy now that he’s out from under this mess.  Look for him to get back to his typical 35 mpg and possibly even back to his double-digit rebounding ways as he tries to prove that the problem was SKiles all along, and his game is just fine.

Andres Nocioni - Perhaps nobody has suffered more from Skiles’ whimsical lineups than Nocioni, who has tempted fantasy players for years with his 3-point potential and his nice scoring and rebounding numbers.  His per-minute numbers suggest that if he got starter’s minutes, like 35 mpg, he’d be at least a 20/7 guy with 2 threes and decent steals and blocks, as well.  The question is, as it has always been, where he’s going to get those minutes.  There’s a logjam at PF, as usual, with guys like Joe Smith, Tyrus Thomas, and Joaquim Noah all getting minutes.  What’s worse, Aaron Gray has been playing fairly well at C, meaning there’s less big man minutes to go around.  The other option that has been discussed is putting Ben Gordon back into his 6th man role and moving Luol Deng to the 2, and letting Nocioni get more minutes at SF.  We’ve got to see how this shakes out but there’s a better chance now than ever before for Nocioni to pick up some extra minutes, and if you’ve got an extra roster spot, he might be worth a look.

Kirk Hinrich - Hinrich has been quietly - and very slowly - pulling himself out of fantasy purgatory with some respectable performances the last few week.  He’s crept up to 75 on the APR over the past month and is at 51 over the past 2 weeks.  But just when you think things are going well, he plops down a performance like last Friday - 1-5 from the field, 0-1 from three, 2 points, 2 assists, 4 turnovers.  But what Hinrich has going for him more than anything else these days is the lack of depth at PG for the Bulls.  The only true PG on the squad is Chris Duhon, who has been out-of-favor with management due to his partying ways and was apparently on the trading block this summer.  So whoever the new coach is, you’ve gotta assume that he’ll give Hinrich every opportunity to play his way out of this funk.  Let’s hope he gets out of it.  Whatever you do, don’t sell low on Hinrich just yet.

Ben Gordon - Ya think Gordon regrets turning down that 5-year, $50M contract extension?  Gordon’s value is falling faster than anything outside of the housing market right now and he’s the most obvious change to be made by the new coach.  He’s a FA this year so Paxson doesn’t have any reason to let him play and try to up his value, and guys like Nocioni and Thabo Sefolosha, faves in Chicago, could be cutting into his playing time.  In fact, while he’s not worth his own paragraph, Sefolosha was expected to play a large role on this team before Skiles apparently shattered his confidence early in the season.  So Thabo could be in line for some more minutes himself, and those will undoubtedly come at the expense of Gordon, who has been playing a little bit better in December (particularly in his 3-point shooting), but still is falling flat on his typical numbers.  A move to the bench and a 6th-man role might be oncoming for Gordon, but it might be for the best overall.

The rest - One thing you can say about Chicago is that they’re not short on talent.  The issue is going to be who gets on the court.  Right now the guys I’ve listed above, plus Luol Deng, are probably the only guys worth owning but next in line would probably be Ty Thomas, who will be given a chance to play but will struggle to see the minutes he needs to counter his streaky performance.  But guys like Joe Smith, Jo Noah, and Aaron Gray, while occasionally tempting, will likely still be stuck on the bench far too often to have value.  So it goes.

Let’s get right to it … remember, this is for roto-style, no-TO leagues.

1. Lebron James, CLE (Last Month: 3) - I hear people talking about how he’s really taking off this year, but statistically the only real improvement has been in blocks.  In fact, I’m still not sure he’s any better this year than he was in ‘04-05, though I will buy that his averages are slightly skewed from his two half-games from the finger injury.  Still, it’s good enough for #1 on this list, a spot he hasn’t been in for quite some time.  Welcome to the top, LeBron.

2. Kobe Bryant, LAL (2) - I very nearly put him at #1 over Lebron.  Why?  2 reasons - one, i’m not sure that LeBron’s blocks are sustainable, and two, LeBron still hurts you in FT%, whereas Kobe doesn’t hurt you anywhere.

3. Kevin Garnett, BOS (1) - He’s playing just 31 mpg in December, which is a serious concern.  If this keeps up, next month KG may drop out of the top 5 even though he’s still playing like a beast when he’s on the court.

4. Chris Paul, NO (13) - He’s playing the best ball out of everyone in the league right now.  The problem is that almost everything is well above his career average, particularly the FT% and the steals, both of which may come down.  So we’ll put him at 4 for now, and see what happens.

5. Shawn Marion, PHO (5) - Marion’s 69% from the stripe is one of the most confusing stats of the year - but then you see that he’s hitting 88% in December and everything’s OK.

6. Steve Nash, PHO (4) - Last year I put Nash at 6 and stuck him there all year.  After putting him a bit too high at 4 last month, I might do the same this year.  It just fits him.

7. Yao Ming, HOU (6) - Gotta love the big guy getting all worked up over his team not being tough, huh?  He’s turned into exactly what we thought he could be - a reliable 20/10/2 big guy who actually helps from the line.

8. Amare Stoudemire, PHO (11) - Two years back from microfracture surgery and now he’s getting his timing back on the defensive end, where he’s putting up a career-high 2 BPG.  His minutes are also creeping back to where they should be after his rough first two weeks, which has kept his numbers a little deflated.

9. Caron Butler, WAS (N/A) - The amazing thing about Caron, and some folks will disagree with me here, is that despite the awesome performance, he’s not one of those guys that you notice every time he’s on the floor.  That doesn’t mean a thing for fantasy purposes, though.

10. Josh Smith, ATL (8) - I’m still concerned that he gets SO much of his value from blocks, and I still don’t think he’s going to end the year above 3.5 pg.  He went from 3.6 in November to 3.0 in December so far.

11. Allen Iverson, DEN (14) - Remember when we were wondering who was going to be the alpha dog in Denver, him or Carmelo?  I think we can put that argument to rest.  When is AI going to show his age, though?  I’m a bit worried about wear and tear come spring.

12. Carlos Boozer, UTH (N/A) - The 57% from the field continues to amaze me.  Unfortunately, he’s returning to his poor FT shooting (as some commenters figured he would last month), but the unlikely uptick in steals and assists puts him here in the top 20.

13. Baron Davis, GSW (N/A) - It’s too bad for Baron that he’s officially banned from being in the top 10 ever again, because he’s putting together a nice case for himself.  If only he wasn’t a lock to miss 20 games …

14. Dwyane Wade, MIA (7) - At this point I think you have to be concerned that Wade has rushed himself back to try and save the season for the Heat.  He’s a turnover machine, his percentages are way down, and he’s been pretty awful, for his standards, save for that one 4-game stretch early in December.  I’m a little worried he might have to shut it back down at some point.

15. Dwight Howard, ORL (N/A) - DM and I were discussing Howard yesterday, and I think that he will be overrated from a fantasy standpoint for the next few years.  Kind of like how Tim Duncan was a first-round pick even though he always landed in the 12-20 range on the player rater, Howard is so monstrous in those big man categories that people tend to forget that, all things considered, he’s a second-round kinda guy.  Eventually, Duncan started getting drafted in the second round, and that should eventually happen for Howard, too.

16. Manu Ginobili, SAS (9) - So much for shooting 50% for the year, huh?  Ginobili struggled with his shot when both Duncan and Parker were out, but he should return to form just fine.

17. Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (10) - Hey Dirk, you might wanna check your luggage - it looks like you mighta left about 15% of your game in Australia this summer.

18. Chauncey Billups, DET (N/A) - It’s absolutely amazing how similar his numbers are this year compared to last year - the 11.6 shots per game, 1.6-of-4.5 from the arc, 1.2 steals … and everything else is pretty much right where it was, too.  Scary.

19.  Jason Kidd, NJN (N/A) - The stats are nice and all, as usual, but if I’m a Kidd owner I’m a little worried that this season might blow up in his face.  There’s just not a lot of good news in his world right now, and if the Nets continue to stink, who knows what could happen?

20.  As usual, we leave this one up to the commenters.  Who goes 20?

A big deal just went down in our league. Carlos Boozer and Cuttino Mobley for Jason Terry and Ron Artest. On the surface it seems like a fairly standard 1 and 4 for 2 and 3 deal – one team getting the best and worst player, the other team getting the middle two players. But did the team trading Boozer really get a good enough return?

Boozer finished 20/31 on the player rater last year and was seen as a consensus third round pick. It was hard to see him improving much off last year’s numbers and he remained an injury risk in the eyes of most. But Boozer, like his teammate Deron Williams, has proven that last year was no fluke and he is a fantasy force to be reckoned with. As fantasy enthusiasts often do, we look for what’s wrong with a player’s game before we appreciate what’s right. Boozer is a center who doesn’t block shots. Never has, never will. In fact, the 0.6 per game he’s averaging this season would be one of the better marks of his career. So starting him at a center spot leaves you short in blocks. So what? The numbers don’t lie and right now Boozer is a Top 5 player. He and Dwight Howard are the premier anchors in FG%, offering value in that category equivalent to what Marcus Camby gives you in blocks. He’s a monster on the boards, averaging 11.7 per game for the second straight season. He’s upped his scoring to 25 ppg, held his assists at a very respectable 3.1 per game and is even chipping in an impressive 1.4 steals. He missed one game with a sprained ankle but returned the next night with 24/15 in 40 minutes, putting to rest any concerns that it would be a lingering problem. He’s been held under 17 points just once this season and has reached double digit boards in 19 of 24 games. Maybe he won’t finish the season in the Top 5, but it’s time to start treating Boozer as a premium fantasy player instead of merely a very good one.

So with that said, are Ron Artest and Jason Terry enough in return for him? I don’t really think it is. Artest has been his usual self since returning from a 7-game suspension to start the season, which is to say that he’d be really great if percentages didn’t count. Unfortunately, that’s not the case in most leagues and his 43% (on 16 shots per game) and 62% from the line (should improve slightly) do some serious damage. BV and I attended the Wizards/Kings game on Saturday night and Artest was almost an afterthought out there, he rarely made his presence felt. The Kings aren’t an all-out disaster, but that team is going nowhere this season and could be in for some upheaval. And when you’re dealing with Artest there’s always some risk involved, especially if there is a hint of instability with the team. He’s going to be great in the counting stats, as always, and is especially valuable to teams looking to make a run in steals, but he’s no fantasy superstar.

Same goes for Terry. He had a scorching hot beginning of the season but is now back to being Jason Terry which is fine, just fine. He’s averaging 17.4 ppg in 30 minutes as a sub but only 15.9 ppg in 37 minutes as a starter, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. His FG% remains stellar, he just isn’t looking for his shot as much lately, for whatever reason. It seems like every year we say that Terry is an undervalued fantasy property, and it was probably even more true this year since his average draft position was likely knocked down due to him starting the season coming off the bench. He’s currently at 24/41 for the season, but is #65 for the past month, which is about right for Terry.

Maybe the owner who traded Boozer picked the right time to sell high. There are some other factors involved that make the deal more sensible – this owner has been devastated by injuries and has used up fewer games than anyone in the league, meaning that getting two solid players helps him more than most teams since he has lots of games and ground to make up – but it still seems like he could have held out for more. Would you trade Yao Ming for Terry and Artest? Unlikely. But Boozer has proven to be on Yao’s level this season, if not above it, and it’s time to start recognizing that fact.