One of the important, unconventional stats that we look at here at FBB is minutes. No matter how good a player may be, they need to actually be on the floor to produce value, and most players will tend to do good things when they get the opportunity (with the exception of the Collins brothers and DeShawn Stevenson). Today we look at a few players to think about adding to your bench or watch list, because if for whatever reason they get an extra boost in PT then they will be a valuable asset.

Craig Smith
Let’s first start with the man who actually inspired this column a little over a week ago. Since then, he has gone on to not only enter the Minnesota starting lineup, but also put out great numbers as well. His per-35 minutes numbers project out to about 16/8 with good percentages and weak defensive numbers. This was highlighted by his 36 point, 8 rebound performance the other night. He may not solve your team’s every need, but he can produce good value and will continue to see consistent playing time. Overall, this one was too easy to call, with Theo Ratliff being incredibly injury prone and with the strong season finish that Smith had last year.

Brandon Bass
Bass is another solid candidate for an explosion if anything were to happy to Dirk Nowitzki misses time. It seemed that this guy had too much promise for New Orleans to justify cutting him and he’s sure demonstrating why with some huge games. Bass is projecting per-35 minutes to about 15/8 but would add decent blocks and surprisingly good FT% values as well. Bass seems like an ideal handcuff candidate for Dirk owners and looks like he could be a force in the NBA if he continues current development over the next few years.

Delonte West
Okay, so I know that he’s injured right now, but you have to feel sorry for the position that this guy is in. He’s stuck on a team that’s in extraordinary flux with too many players fighting for time at the PG and SG positions, and attempts at playing Kevin Durant as a guard haven’t helped matters either. West is not an absolutely great player, but what is a fact is that he contributes across the board in nearly every category. There is no need to project numbers, as he showed us what he could do in 05-06 when he put up 12/4/4.5 with good percentages and nearly making the 1/1/1 club (steals/blocks/threes). Overall, this FBB favorite is clearly being misused in his current Seattle role, and while he may not be a fantasy force right now, if roster shake-ups occur then he could end up with some very nice value. There’s a reason he finished #52 overall on the PR two years ago.

Sacramento Swingmen
If there is any team that can be said to have excellent depth at SG/SF, Sacramento would have to be near the top of any list. In addition to having all-star caliber Kevin Martin and Ron Artest, both John Salmons and Francisco Garcia have shown to be quite valuable whenever they get an opportunity to showcase their abilities. There are simply too many players here to list all of their stats, but if you look at game logs, you’ll see exactly what I’m talking about. Injuries and suspensions to Martin, Artest and Mike Bibby have given these backup guards the opportunity they need, but they still need consistent playing time to have sustained value, which is not something particularly certain. Sacramento though, with all of their talent and the lack of production, you have to think it’s a team that will likely get blown up with a roster make-over sometime soon. Keep an eye on the playing time of these players, as whoever is getting the start will likely give great value from a backup.

Now to be honest, it has been difficult for me to keep up with the NBA as I continue traveling around Europe, and thus I’m sure I’m missing some great additions to this list. Help me out by nominating another player for my watch list by adding a comment below! Until next time, take care and have a wonderful holiday season.

Here at FBB Headquarters (Motto: Deliver Us From Hinrich), we are always wary of unexpected surges in blocks and steals.  Yeah, they’re great while they last, but odds are that in the long run, guys will eventually revert to their career numbers unless they are a) young, b) on a new team or c) putting together their games in other ways as well.

This year, there are a number of young, veteran big men who are putting up unexpectedly strong numbers in the blocks department.  Let’s spend a little time going through who’s improved, and more importantly, figure out why, and if we think they’re going to keep it up.

Andrew Bogut
Blocks last year: 0.5
Blocks this year: 2.2
What’s Changed: Well, not much in the big picture, really.  Bogut has been a mild disappointment overall and a significant disappointment in the blocks department for fantasy owners and his NBA team so far in his career. But an apparent devotion to defense and rebounding in the offseason has been getting a lot of credit for the turnaround.  This year, Bogut has posted multiple blocks in 12 of 19 games and has been a real pleasant suprise for owners expecting next to nothing in that category from the Aussie.  The Bucks are benefitting as well as their opponents’ PPG is down from 104 to 100.8.
What to Expect:  You know, all this talk about an offseason devotion to rebounding and defense sounds great, but my question is, what happened to the rebounding?  How can a guy spend all of his offseason on two things, and improve drastically in one while staying essentially the same in the other?  My fluke-o-meter is picking up strong signals from Bogut, as he’s essentially the same player he was his first two years in the league except for the shot-swatting.  My guess is, he’ll revert at least somewhat to form, and end the year in the 1-1.5 bpg range.

Chris Kaman
Blocks last year: 1.6
Blocks this year: 3.0
What’s Changed: Kaman has been playing with a chip on his shoulder ever since being turned down for the lead role in “Cavemen” this fall, and it hasn’t hurt matters that Elton Brand has gotten out of his way in the low post.  He’s been an absolute monster this year, with 18.5 points and 13.7 boards, and he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down.  Kaman has always been a decent shot blocker but his 3 per game, good for second in the league, is much more than anyone could have hoped for.
What to Expect: Kaman is about one year too late for a contract push, so I’m not sure where this is coming from.  I have a hard time believing that he’s this good just all of a sudden though, and that counts for the rebounds as much as the blocks.  Still, with Brand out, the Clippers are going to give him every opportunity to keep this going.  Lets assume that he’ll cool down eventually, but he should still b e a 2+ bpg kinda guy until and possibly after Brand returns.

Danny Granger
Blocks last year: 0.7
Blocks this year: 1.5
What’s Changed: Granger was a mild disappointment last year in the defensive categories.  After showing Rasheed Wallace-esque potential in his rookie season (i.e. at least one block, steal, and three), Granger got the 30+ minutes required by nearly every player in the league to have fantasy value, started shooting more from the outside … and saw his blocks and steals per minute drop significantly.  This year, though, the defensive stats are back in full force, and you have to think that new Pacers coach Jim O’Brien has something to do with it.  O’Brien is known for his wide-open, free-wheeling style and while we usually think about it having an effect on the offensive end, the fact is that it can affect how players perform on defense as well.  In fact, despite Jermaine O’Neal’s struggles, the Pacers as a team are swatting the same 5.5 shots per game as they did last year, meaning a lot of folks are stepping it up a little bit.
What to Expect:  I’d expect Granger to keep it up, or at least be close to this level of production for the rest of the year.  He showed in his rookie year that he was capable of being an effective shot-blocker, and after a swoon last year is putting together his abilities with his minutes and turning into a great fantasy player.  Enjoy it.

Drafting centers is always one of the biggest dilemmas on draft day. It can make or break a season. I’d be loving my team right now if it wasn’t for my men in the middle – FT% killer Emeka Okafor and pansy-ass Mehmet Okur. Coming into this year’s draft there were a handful of intriguing young big men that had some risk attached to them. So how have they been faring so far? Let’s take a look.

LaMarcus Aldridge
Avg Draft Position: 61.5
Current Rank: 53
Stats: 18.7/7.7/0.8, 53.3% FG, 75.9% FT, 1.3 bpg, 0.7 spg, 34.3 mpg

If you reached for Aldridge in the late-third or early-fourth, as happened in our league, he’s been a slight disappointment. Otherwise, the second year, 22-year old has performed just as expected as the Blazers’ secondary offensive threat behind Brandon Roy. He’s learned how to play without fouling so much – his fouls per 48 are down to 4.8 from last year’s 6.4 – and last night’s overtime game against the Bucks was his first disqualification of the year. His blocks have been disappointing, averaging just 1.3 this season after averaging almost exactly the same in 12 fewer minutes last year. This could just be an early season blip, but Aldridge is also starting to look like a player in the Chris Bosh mold, and Bosh has always been serviceable but never dominant in blocks. His inside/outside game is greatly developed and shooting 53% on almost 15 attempts per game is quite a feat. More than half of his rebounds come on the offensive glass which means that he’s not the most fundamentally sound rebounder but has a knack for finding the ball. If he can improve on the defensive side he should have no problem reaching double digits soon. It will, of course, be interesting to see how life is next season with Greg Oden, but a string of 20/10 seasons seems very reasonable.

Andris Biedrins
Avg Draft Position: 74.1
Current Rank: 57
Stats: 11.0/10.0/1.5, 62.8% FG, 66.7% FT, 1.5 bpg, 0.6 spg, 29.2 mpg

Biedrins was nearly invisible in last night’s highly entertaining matchup with the Lakers but has proven to be a solid draft day value despite numbers that on the surface don’t look too fantastic. There’s reason to be worried since he’s topped 30 minutes just once in the last eight games after logging heavy minutes at the beginning of the season, but things change quickly when Don Nelson’s in charge. That nearly 63% from the field is what makes Biedrins so valuable but in a way it’s also what hinders him. Only Dwight Howard, Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire and Shaq help their teams more in the FG% category. But he simply has no offensive game of his own, almost all of his shots are layups or putbacks, and sometimes that handicap is too much for the Warriors trigger happy style. Biedrins went through similar stretches of inconsistent playing time last year and his owners have to hope that he’ll bounce back with some big-minute, 18-rebound games to make up for his recent downturn in minutes. Because of the Warriors pace, even 25 minutes is equivalent to around 30 minutes of action on other teams.

Andrew Bynum
Avg Draft Position: 100.3
Current Rank: 58
Stats: 10.9/9.7/1.5, 58.7% FG, 68.4% FT, 2.0 bpg, 0.5 spg, 26.1 mpg

Bynum certainly went a few rounds later than the two previously mentioned players but he’s right there with them in providing solid 5^th round value so far. I owned Bynum for a stretch last year so I watched him play a lot and I was always very impressed. He had some of the same mental lapses and fatigue issues that plague young bigs, but his fundamentals were very solid and they are just getting better. He utilizes his long arms to great effect, on both ends of the floor. On offense, his high release is reminiscent of Rasheed Wallace’s, in that his shot is basically unblockable. His touch is improving mightily, too. On the defensive end, his blocks are straight out of the textbook – arms straight in the air, swatting away. Unlike, say, Josh Smith or Andray Blatche who rely on pure athletic freakishness for their highlight denials. Phil Jackson is still going to cause some frustration here, and while Kwame Brown and Chris Mihm both pretty much suck, they will still limit Bynum’s upside. He’s at just 26 mpg right now and while folks may look at his numbers and be begging to get that number up to the 32 range, he plays best in short stretches. Maybe the Lakers knew what they were doing all along by refusing to trade him. Out of all the guys on this list, he might be the one I’d rank highest if we’re talking about building a real NBA team.

Al Horford
Avg Draft Position: 121.3
Current Rank: 93
Stats: 8.8/10.8/1.1, 49.6% FG, 63.6% FT, 1.2 bpg, 1.0 spg, 32.6 mpg

He’s not putting up numbers of the above, and he’s actually older than Bynum, but Horford is showing tons of promise as a rookie. Granted, minutes have a lot to do with that – his 32.6 per game lead all rookies except for Kevin Durant – but it’s not like he’s not deserving. Horford has shown great energy and athleticism; Hawks former lottery pick Shelden Williams looks like he plays in slow motion compared to the rookie from Florida. His offensive game still needs refinement and there aren’t a ton of shots to go around with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith firing up at will, but Horford stays busy on the glass and in the passing lanes. He’s totaled a staggering 67 boards in his last five games and it looks like the Zaza Pachulia era is over in Atlanta. (What an era it was!) It’s too early to know for certain if Horford’s steals are for real or whether it’s just luck based on a small sample size. But if that skill is for real and he can be a 1.2 steals/1.5 blocks player, he’s going to be in the same discussion as the other young big men.

OK, so the drama is probably over and it’s looking like Anderson Varejao is headed back to the Cavaliers, despite saying that he doesn’t want to play for them.  Whatever.  I’m not here to psycho-analyze.  Instead, let’s get straight into the fantasy analysis and see what this means for the Cavs frontcourt:

Anderson Varejao
I gotta say, when I saw this comment on our arch-nemesis Rotoworld’s site, I was pretty surprised: “Either way, it’s time to grab Varejao if you have an open roster spot, just in case he ends up in Charlotte (or Cleveland).”  I mean … really?  When has Anderson Varejao been anything more than an absolute emergency fill-in center?  He doesn’t even crack the top 150 on last year’s player rater, and that was easily his best season as a fantasy player.  He’s an OK source of steals for a center and will rebound a bit, but doesn’t really bring anything else to the table and is a complete zero offensively.  Yes, he leads the league in charges, but none of us play Duke Rules Fantasy Basketball, so that doesn’t help.

On top of that, it’s not like he’s a great candidate to make a major improvement this year.  For one, I’m going to go out on a limb here and guess that Anderson isn’t exactly in playing shape right now.  The only real report on what he’s been doing all season came from Chad Ford, who said he’d been “working on his jump hook and trying to stay in shape,” whatever that means.  For two, he’s not exactly coming back with a great attitude, and for a guy whose main asset is the energy he brings to the floor, that can’t be good.  Finally, while this is only his 4th season, he’s already 25, and he was on the international player plan, meaning he’s been playing ‘pro’ since he was 18.  So it’s not like you can expect him to add some facet to his game out of the blue.

Drew Gooden
Gooden has been enjoying a banner year with the absence of Varejao - sort of like Brendan Haywood in the absence of Etan Thomas, only better.  He’s been getting about 7 mpg more, and his averages have risen accordingly, staying in line with his traditional per-minute averages.  Yes, he’s still pretty much Zach Randolph-lite, but with the extra minutes he’s cracked the top 100 on the APR, and he’s averaging a double-double.  With Varejao coming back, though, things may get dicey for Gooden.  His fantasy surge has pretty much exclusively been due to his rise in minutes and it’s not unreasonable to think that once Varejao gets into game shape, Gooden will fall back to the 28 mpg or so he’s been getting throughout his career in Cleveland.  The one catch is if LeBron James misses an extended period of time, which would make Gooden the emergency ‘leading scorer’ of the Cavs, a horrifying situation for Cleveland but possibly pretty nice for Gooden owners.  Even if that’s the case, though, the drop in FG% resulting from LeBron not being around would likely offset whatever raise Gooden sees in ppg.

Zydraunas Ilgauskas
This is probably bad news for Big Z in the short term, but good news in the long term.  While generally you like to see guys play as many games as possible, that’s not necessarily the case with a 32 year old, 7-3 Center.  And while you have to give Z all the credit in the world for coming back from his early-career knee issues, it’s still a little concerning to see him back to playing 33 mpg after two straight years of PT drops.  On the other hand, he’s playing some of the best basketball of his career.  His rebounding numbers are off the charts, leading the league in OREB’s and posting about 2.5 more DREB’s per game more than any other point in his career post-surgery.

And it’s for all these reasons it’s probably for the best that Ilgauskas gets a little more rest during games.  If he’s able to keep up these astounding per-minute rebounding numbers, even the return to his normal minutes won’t prevent him from providing great return for his owners on the mid-late round pick that they spent on him.  And what’s more, it makes it all the more likely that he’ll be around when you really need him in March and April.  And isn’t that what really counts?

With all the attention being paid to Boston’s new Holy Trinity of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce out in Boston, it’s easy to think that the story stops there.  But hey, you gotta play 5 guys at a time, and so there are other guys on the Celtics who might be putting together some value.  What’s more, should any of the three go down, there will be plenty of value to be had by others on the team.  So, I thought it would be worth checking in on the other guys in Boston to see how they’re progressing this year.

Rajon Rondo
After the big three, it was likely that Rondo was the next Celtic to be taken in your draft.  And with good reason - he’s the starting point guard, he was in line for plenty of minutes, and he looked like he could dominate in steals while providing nice assist and rebounding numbers for a PG.  All he needed to do to become a real fantasy force was work on his jumper which is awful beyond words.  And while he is definitely shooting better, every other part of his game is disappointing so far.

Of course, a lot of this we could have seen coming.  The steals are down, but that makes sense - when your team is playing for the lottery, like the Celtics were last year, you can freestyle more often on defense, which leads to more steals.  On a team playing for a championship squad like the Celtics this year, Rondo isn’t able to take as many chances and so his per-minute steals are down accordingly.  The per-minute rebounding isn’t as strong as last year either, as KG, Pierce and Allen are pulling down about half of the team’s total rebounds.  To make matters worse, his FT% has somehow dipped to a Ben Wallace-like 48%, but that’s not really a big deal since he only gets to the line twice a game.

If there’s one spot that the Celtics are likely to upgrade their team throughout the year, it’s gotta be at PG, where Rondo clearly isn’t what their looking for.  They’re better off with a veteran decision maker who can make a jump shot every once in awhile.  Rondo is really none of those things.  To me, this is a sell-fake-low opportunity if you can find someone who thinks Rondo will live up to whatever potential people saw in him last year.

Kendrick Perkins
Perkins has shown flashes and has done everything the Celtics could really ask of him.  He’s a high-percentage scoring option on the blocks who does most of his damage off of the offensive boards (evidenced by his 24 OREB’s and 44 FG’s on the season), he’s a decent rebounder, and he’s an effective shot blocker.  But a fantasy-viable center?  Well … maybe.  He’s certainly not going to set the world on fire, but there’s something to be said for consistency.  Only once this year has Perkins has zero blocks AND fewer than five rebounds, and only twice has he shot under 50% from the field.  He’s not a great FT% guy, but he’s OK for a center.

Guys like this absolutely have a role on fantasy teams as a C3 or C4 to stash on your bench and use as an injury replacement.  As we’ve learned the last few years, it’s virtually impossible to cash in on unused games at the end of the season.  So why not fill up unused C games with Perkins, who will at least do something positive for you, with little down side?

Eddie House
House, he is what he is.  Nobody wants him now, but come March, if you’re looking for threes, go and get him. But he doesn’t do enough of anything else to really be of use now.

James Posey
You know, if my fantasy team wasn’t an absolute mess and I had room on my bench to stash a player away, I think Posey would be pretty high on my list of guys to stash.  Why?  A few reasons - one, if any of the big three goes down, Posey is the guy who is first in line for more minutes and a bigger role in the offense.  Two, he’s exactly the kind of guy the Celtics are going to depend on come playoff time - a tested veteran who’s won in the postseason before.  Three, when he does get the minutes, he’s pretty effective as a source of threes, steals and rebounds.  Finally, even if no one does get hurt, there’s still the chance that the big three start to see their minutes cut a bit, and Posey would be a big benefactor there, as well.  He’s a nice guy to hold onto if you’ve got the space.

BV:  We’ve spilled plenty of virtual ink on at least one sophomore NBA player this year, LaMarcus Aldridge.  But what about the other second-year guys?  Have they shown the improvement we would have liked to see over their rookie year?  Let’s start with one of Aldridge’s teammates out in Portland, Brandon Roy.  Roy was one of the few rooks to have any real value last year, and ended up at a very respectable 59 on the APR.  Considering it was only his rookie year, and the fact that he was going to step in to a bigger role in the offense, it was reasonable to expect him to pump up those numbers a bit and land with an APR somewhere in the 40’s.  But instead, he’s dropped down to 70!  A closer look at his game log shows that he’s definitely got the talent, but every so often he has a game that is just awful, like his 4-18, 12/2/1 night on Monday against Portland.  What’s more, his rebounding and FT% have curiously taken a hit.  DM, is there any cause for concern here - could he actually be a buy-low?

DM: I’m not worried about Roy, at least talent-wise. I’d still like to see him prove that he can play a full season without being injured, though. He might be suffering a bit from the loss of Zach Randolph, as Aldridge is the only other player on the Blazers that defenses need to pay any sort of special attention to. But he’s improved his outside game and continues to be an excellent playmaker. I’d like to see him get to the line a bit more — 4.8 attempts in 38 mpg is a bit too passive — but he’s going to be a main offensive threat on the Blazers for years to come, ensuring solid fantasy value. I still see him as a solid 4th round value. I’ve been very impressed with Ronnie Brewer in Utah. He’s thieving like a maniac, racking up 2.6 spg which puts him in the top 50 so far, but even when that number naturally comes down, he should still be a valuable roster filler for fantasy squads. His upside is clearly limited because of his status as the fifth option on Utah, as evidenced by his low 8.7 FGA per game, but he’s consistently around the 30 mpg mark and is seeing crunch time action over Matt Harpring, which wasn’t happening a year ago. He has the makings of a Tayshaun Prince-type, the kind of guy you don’t target, but grab when he falls to you and enjoy the production from your 9th or 10th spot.

BV: Exactly right on Brewer.  If you look at the ESPN player rater you’ll see that while Brewer derives nearly all of his fantasy value from his steals (+2.87 on their system), even if those cut in half he’ll be around the 50’s or 60’s overall.  That’s fantastic from the 9th or 10th spot, and actually acceptable from the 5th or 6th spot. And I don’t mind the fact that he’s taking only 8.7 FGA, because he’s taking high-quality shots - his 52% from the field is fantastic, and he’s getting to the line 4.6 times per game, which is fantastic compared to the numbers you just showed us from Roy.  Still, he’s got to perform like this - or close to it - for at least another month or so before I’m going to be a believer.  The other big breakout that we’ve seen so far this year from the sophs has to be Rudy Gay.  Not just from an NBA standpoint - he’s become the clear #2 on that team behind Pau Gasol - but from a fantasy standpoint, where he looks to be a guy that will provide the coveted Triple-One (one 3, one steal, one block per game).  When it’s all said and done, doesn’t he have a great chance to be at the top of this class?

DM: Rudy Gay has been extremely impressive lately and looks to be establishing himself as the team’s #1 option. Hell, he’s outscoring Gasol by half a point on the year so far. Gay has drastically improved his jump shot and either he’s falling in love with the 3 or Iavaroni is telling to fall in love with the 3, but whatever the reason, he’s attempting more per game than Mike Miller, noted long-range specialist. The Grizz have plenty of firepower and love to play bombs away, so this is a great sign for his fantasy value. He looked might impressive against the Wizards a few nights ago, hitting plenty of tough shots and was very active on the offensive boards. Consistency still isn’t his strong suit, but he’s reached double digit scoring in all but two games this year and he is a perfect fit for this Grizzlies team. I still think that the Blazer duo might be better just because they are the unquestioned leaders of their team, but Gay is close. How about Shawne Williams on the Pacers? His outside touch is for real, and he got the start for Jim O’Brien’s squad last night. If (haha, if) Jermaine O’Neal misses significant time, Williams could benefit greatly, especially in that new up-tempo offense the Pacers are running. I still haven’t seen enough of him to know for sure, but he could very well be a solid contributor as long as he stays out of off-court troubles, of course.

BV:  Well, if Shawne Williams is EVER going to have value, it’s now.  He’s got loads of PT in front of him and he’s in a situation where he’s more than welcome to chuck threes all night long.  But the fact is, he doesn’t rebound (other than last night), can’t shoot from the stripe, and doesn’t contribute anything defensively.  So he’s going to have to get a LOT of value from those threes.  He sorta seems like a poor man’s Mickael Pietrus, and that doesn’t sound too appetizing.

So we’ve talked a bunch about guys who have looked pretty good … let’s figure out who’s on the other end of the spectrum.  Has there been a bigger sophomore slumper than Tyrus Thomas?  He’s so explosive but just can’t seem to figure out when and where is the best place to explode.  I can’t decide if this is a case of the rest of his team dragging him down (thank you very much, Kirk Hinrich), or if he’s just not as good as we thought, or if he needs some more time to develop?

DM: I was watching the Bulls/Hawks game the other night and there was one sequence that really defined Thomas’s season so far. On the offensive end he was at the top of the key and made a nice drive to the hoop, but his layup attempt was easily swatted away by Josh Smith. Going back on the other end Thomas was overaggressive when guarding Smith, who easily went by him, leaving Thomas no choice but to hack him. He’s still plenty skilled and is only 21, but right now he’s a guy with percentages of 41/52 who is averaging 3.4 fouls in just 21 mpg. He still has a great chance to be something like the next Ben Wallace, a monster in boards, steals and blocks, but it might not be for a while. I’ve got him parked at the bottom of my bench. Someone I might think about putting on my bench soon is Rajon Rondo. It’s not that he’s been terrible, he’s just been very unexciting. He’s even been a disappointment in steals, where I expected him to dominate. After grabbing 13 in the first four games of the season, he has only 7 in his 9 games since then, very underwhelming numbers for someone who was among the league leaders in steals per minute last year. The Celtics have no choice but to play him for at least 30 mpg, and his 2.5:1 assist/turnover ratio is solid (unlike his 43.5% from the line), but unless he picks it up, he might find himself coming off the bench once some veterans become available later in the year.

Okay, Antoine Walker really shouldn’t be in the All-Star game. It’s rediculous to think he should even be a candidate. But, right now there is a Internet movement that is trying to vote Shane Battier and Antoine Walker as starters for the upcoming NBA All-Star game. Battier, suprisingly enough, has a legitimate chance if people dilligently work to vote him in, while Walker…would just be hillarious to see him make it. I think it would be great to see this happen, and if you would too then please vote and make it reality. Click here for more information.

It seems like the NBA has been on autopilot for the last few weeks. Players that have struggled have continued to stink up fantasy lines (Kirk Heinrich was actually dropped in one of my leagues!) while players who have been on fire continue their spirited play. As a result, I don’t have that much to talk about today, which is probably a good thing as I have four final exams next week. However, I do have a few points of interest to note:

• Dwight Howard is currently ranked #16 on the APR. Looks like he’s justifying the rationale of the people who went and took him “too early”, as in the second round.
• Antoine Walker is actually producing some value. Over the last week he is rated #31 in the APR and has had a series of good games. If you are looking for help in 3PTM, give him a look.
• Jamario Moon continues to be impressive, with a 6-block performance and a rating of #24 on the weekly APR. I don’t know why I have yet to pick him up, but if he continues to play like this then he won’t be around for very long.

Also, just a quick question to our readers, but what type of fantasy leagues do you play in? Standard Roto and H2H leagues, or perhaps something different like a KFBA league or one with strange scoring methods? I personally play mainly H2H and want to get a sense of what you guys are playing, so I can better tailor my advice and strategy columns.

On a last note, I want to give my condolences to the family and friends of Sean Taylor, the Washington Redskins safety who was lethally shot in his home on Sunday night by a burgler. It is a horrible tragedy that has become all too common recently. Both BV and DM are from the Washington D.C. area, and I’m sure they are seeing the effects first-hand.

Next time I promise to write more about basketball and fantasy advice. It’s just been one of those weeks. Take care until next time.

One of our favorite little tricks here is the ‘buy fake high’ or the ’sell fake low,’ where basically you get some other owner to think they’re buying low or selling high when really, the player is as good/as bad as he’s performing.  Confused?  Tough.  Anyhow, a couple weeks ago DM went over some Buy Fake High candidates  - now let’s go over some Sell Fake Low’s.

Brad Miller - OK, now I’ve got Brad Miller on my fantasy team, and while my team is absolutely stuffed to the gills with disappointments, Miller has been … noticeable.  And yes, I wrote this before his good game last night, but whatever.  His FG% is easily the lowest of his career, and the assists just aren’t there, either.  What’s worse, his #109 on the APR is artificially high - there’s no way he keeps up his 1.3 bpg or his 89% from the stripe.  Now, you could see a couple of owners thinking about buying low on Miller thinking that he’ll eventually start hitting shots and getting assists.  And Miller does have some built-in minimal value as a starting center that plays over 30 mpg. But I don’t see it happening, and the main reason for that is the system.  Under Rick Adelman, Sacramento centers like Miller and Vlade Divac handled the ball like guards in the post, looking to make the extra pass and posting great assists numbers for their position.  Miller thrived in a situation like that, even when he was hurt.  But take Miller out of Adelman’s system and he’s just not the same guy.  In his previous stops in Charlotte, Chicago and Indiana, he never averaged more than 2.6 apg.   Between the new system, the age, and the injury risk, I’d say that if you’ve got a couple extra C’s and you can get a mid-round value for Miller, go ahead and do it.

Chris Bosh - This one might surprise you, but I think Bosh has one of the most inflated values of anyone in fantasy basketball.  He’s always treated like an early second-round pick, but look at his APR’s the last few years: two years ago he was 21, last year he was at 27, and right now he’s at 39.  Yes he’s only 23, but this is his 5th year in the league, and he’s dealing with plantar fascitis, so it’s not like he’s a lock to improve despite his age.  The fact of the matter is that the Raptors are a better team when they are moving the ball around and everyone is getting their shots - they’ve currently got 8 guys averaging over 8 ppg.  What might be best for the Raptors isn’t necessarily what’s best for Bosh owners, and that looks to be the case here.  Other owners will look at his deflated numbers and point to his minutes just being down, but I look at them and see a guy who’s probably still bothered by his foot issues and is better off taking a bit of a lesser role in his offense.  If you can find an owner who saw his recent outburst and thinks that Bosh may be a first-round value, I’d say make that move.

Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge - Now, I’m not suggesting that Durant and Aldridge have been playing poorly or even dissapointing owners this year.  Aldridge is a solid 6th round value on the APR at 67 and Durant is almost right there with him at 73.  And you know what?  If they end up in those same spots at the end of the year, that’s solid.  But I think that some owners out there expected more - way more.  And while a lot of owners overpaid for these guys with fourth and even third round picks, a lot of other owners were itching to grab him just a few picks later.  Now that the  youngsters haven’t necessarily reached their overhyped expactations, some might be preying on them, thinking that there will be some major improvement over the next few months.  And you know what?  There might be.  But it’s not going to be drastic.  Durant might improve his shot a bit, but remember that it took LeBron a full year of shooting 41% before he eventually settled into the high-40’s in his sophomore season.  And with the amount that he’s turning the ball over, don’t expect a jump in assists anytime soon.  And Aldridge, well, what’s wrong with what he’s doing now?  Sure he’s not blocking shots as we thought he might, but that’s OK.  He’s also shooting absurdly well for a guy who’s the only low-post threat on his team and thus gets the best big man defending him each game.  Despite that, some owners are likely still salivating at the upside of these guys - and as we always say here at FBB, BEWARE UPSIDE.  If you can get 4th round value for either of these guys, go for it.

How to use your bench spots is always one of those smaller team management issues that can have a big effect on how your season plays out. In our 12-team league we have three bench spots to go along with our 10 active spots. If this season is anything like last, then it won’t be too long until everyone’s bench spots are occupied with injured stars. But until that time, those spots have some definite value, especially as we get to the second month of the season and trends start to become more obvious.

Here’s my bench strategy for this season – go with young players with massive upside, especially in the categories I’m weak in, and hope one or two of them pan out. It may seem fairly obvious, but right now I can say that I’m pretty much done making roster moves for a while. No more picking up a player after a hot game, no more temporary PG strategy. I’m sticking with what I’ve got. Since I drafted at #11, I’m lacking a real superstar on my team. And since I loaded up on high-minute swingmen (Iguodala, Butler, Jefferson, etc.) I don’t have too many blocks of 3s. Those are the categories I need help in, so this is how I’m using my bench spots. Instead of going for the quick fix I’m going to stay patient and hope that I end up with a player who will be a surefire fantasy starter for the second half of the season. I’m going to rundown the four guys I’m stashing on my bench right now. (I’ll save up some utility games until I feel comfortable using them.)

Spot #1 – Jason Maxiell
I snagged him when Antonio McDyess went down for a few games a week or so ago and of course threw him in the lineup right away and watched him get in serious foul trouble and put up pedestrian numbers. The fact that he started when McDyess was out wasn’t too surprising, but to see him manning the middle when Rasheed Wallace has been out the past couple games has made me very happy. It could mean some upcoming center eligibility, but it means that he is clearly the #1 backup frontcourt option, regardless of who goes down. In just 23 mpg Maxiell is averaging 1.7 blocks, which could sure help my squad. Of my nine regular starters, Andre Iguodala is second with 12 blocks, so you know I need the help. Maxiell’s a very active player and that Detroit team has had so much good fortune with injuries over the past few years that you have to think that things will start to even out. Plus, Rasheed Wallace is on BV’s team, so his injury should linger.

Spot #2 – Juan Carlos Navarro
Navarro was picked up after his first 28-point game a few weeks ago but was subsequently dropped when he followed that breakout game with an 8-point game and then a 9-minute, 2-point game. Still, anyone who can hit 8 3-pointers in a game is someone I could use on my squad. I snagged him after he re-entered the starting lineup against San Antonio and plugged him in for Saturday night’s game against the Wizards. High-scoring teams, Wizards can’t defend the three-point line, revenge game (of sorts) for Navarro? Hey, if my team is going to lose, at least my new acquisition knocked down 5 3s in the process. His role with Memphis isn’t very defined, and Darko Milicic should relegate him back to bench duties when he returns from his thumb injury. But reports on his injury have been vague and you get the feeling it could linger. La Bomba is a pure scorer and in three starts is averaging 19.3/3/4 with a steal and 2.7 3s. Even if Milicic comes back there’s a chance the Grizzlies could decide to keep him on the bench for a while and let Navarro continue to start.

Spot #3 – Tyrus Thomas
It continues to be extremely ugly for the Bulls, and a recent re-entry into the starting lineup has been equally ugly for Thomas. Foul trouble has been the main culprit    as he hasn’t been able to top 17 minutes in each of the last two contests due to excessive hacking. Scott Skiles seems to be taking all of his frustrations out on Thomas, moving him in and out of the lineup, calling him out publicly, etc. There’s a chance he could be buried on the bench again this week, but if the Bulls are going to turn things around this year, it’s hard to see them doing that without some big contributions from Thomas. He’s a disaster at the free throw line, but he blocked 10 shots and grabbed 6 steals in the first four games of the month, and those are numbers that can’t be ignored. If Skiles gets fired – still unlikely, but this team is 2-10 and just lost to the Knicks – a new coach could make Thomas a cornerstone.

Spot #4 – Sean Williams
You can see the kind of players I’m going for. Like I said, if one of them pans out big time, it could be the difference between fighting for the title and hanging out in the middle of the pack. Getting a big-time shot blocker who can grab steals for free is often the key to winning. Since I drafted 11^th I started the season with the #2 waiver claim, and I cashed in that chip to grab Williams, who was dropped after a pair of games in which he didn’t break 15 minutes. This came after two starts in which he posted averages of 16 and 6 with 1.5 steals and 2.5 blocks. To Lawrence Frank’s credit, the Nets won the two games in which his role was diminished and lost the two games in which the rookie started. But the competition is Malik Allen, Jason Collins, Jamaal Magloire, Josh Boone and an out-of-it Nenad Krstic. I’m usually anti-rookie, but that’s mostly on draft day. Williams is averaging 2.2 blocks in 20 minutes and is center eligible. He’s got to be owned in every league and even if the minutes aren’t there right now I have to think he’s a better use of a roster spot than just rotating between the likes of Morris Peterson, Marko Jaric and Jarrett Jack.

Well, the big news of the day is that Gilbert Arenas is out with an injured knee for the next three months. As a Gilbert owner myself, I can sympathize with those of you out there who spent your first-round pick to acquire him. While there isn’t much you can do to replace his production, his injury as well as others around the league are opening up minutes of playing time that can lead to capable fantasy starters.

Washington Wizards: With Gilbert out, this means more shots to go around for the rest of the players on the team. This means Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are going to have more value, and Caron already exploded for 39 in their last game. If you can get them for value, now isn’t a bad time to do so. In addition, Antonio Daniels should be picked up in most leagues. Based on his ten games replacing Gilbert as a starter from this and last season, he should be good for 12.5/5.5/8.5 with a three and a steal and good free throw shooting. Not shabby at all for a PG3. Lastly, there has been an Andray Blatche sighting. I thought it would be a mistake that this kid slipped to the second round and in his third year he’s beginning to show why. In the last week he has averaged 13.8/7.3/2.5 with 1.3 steals, 2.5 blocks and even made a three, leading to a #8 ranking for the last week on the average player rater. Part of his increased role is due to Brendan Haywood going down with an injury, but based on his play, Blatche should continue to see the ~30 minutes he needs for fantasy value. I just dropped Yi Jinlian for him!

Toronto Raptors: Let’s talk about Jamario Moon. Wait, who is this guy? Just some career journeyman who’s landed in Toronto and is currently starting over the likes of major FA signing Jason Kapono. With Joey Graham and Jorge Garbajosa out, there is extra playing time at the swing spot and Moon could end up having value in a sort of this-year’s-Matt-Barnes type of way. Now, he’s isn’t playing up to that level yet, but he has shown the ability to have value. As a starter he’s averaging almost 1o points and 7 boards while being a member of the elusive 1/1/1 (steals/blocks/threes) club. That’s the kind of sneaky value that could propel him up the fantasy ratings. Also on the lookout, T.J. Ford has been hobbling around and whenever that happens you know that Jose Calderon is there and ready to put up serious numbers.

Sacramento Kings: These guys have been quite the mess this season. Kevin Martin has become a truly elite fantasy force while they have been dealing with multiple injuries and the Ron Artest suspension. The injury to Mike Bibby and the absence of Artest have helped to give Francisco Garcia and John Salmons value, but that may not last for too much longer. Beno Udrih, though temporarily sidelined, has played capably at PG and will continue to have moderate value for a few weeks. Overall, whoever plays in this lineup will have value, so check back on a daily basis for the status of Udrih and Artest and then plug them (or Salmons/Garcia) in accordingly. Now is not too early to consider making a buy-low trade for Mike Bibby or picking him up if he foolishly dropped to the waivers. This team has got to have the award of most-likely-to-be-blown-up by the end of the season, as either Artest or Bibby should be gone. I’m sure we’ll have more to talk about these players at that time.

The Others: Just like with Bibby, now may be a time to start looking at stashing Randy Foye away on your bench. He’s been dropped in the leagues that I play in, and if he holds up to his expected pre-season value, then he’ll be a steal of a pickup. With the number of minutes that Luol Deng plays, you’d think that someone would gain enough value to be mentioned. Instead, Scott Skiles does this, where no player gets more than 30 minutes in the game and thus no one has value. Skiles’s inconsistent rotations and playing time make me want to avoid all of the Chicago players regardless of health. In other news, it looks like some injured players such as Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady are set to return, which will lower the value of their respective replacements. I’m personally extending holiday wishes to Corey Maggette for a speedy recovery. Is it just me, or does it seem that this year has been especially plagued by players either struggling or going down with injuries?