Like a nagging Marcus Camby injury or a ridiculous Knicks trade, there are just some things that we can expect to happen at least once every year.  And one of those things is the Annual Stromile Swift Maybe This Is For Real Game.  And we just saw it last night, as Stro put up 24/5/4 with a steal and a block, filling in for Darko Milicic.  Before we get into this incarnation of the Swift Maybe This Is For Real Game, let’s look at previous incarnations:

11/17/06 - 21/7 with 2 blocks in 32 minutes, filling in for Pau Gasol
12/26/05 - 26/13 in 35 minutes, filling in for Yao Ming
11/20/04 - 20/12 with 2 steals and 2 blocks, filling in for Gasol
11/29/03 - 19/8 with 1 steal and 1 block, filling in for Lorenzen Wright.

And so on.

But this is pretty much common knowledge.  Swift has been jumping on and off waivers for pretty much his entire NBA career.  The question is … is there a right way to play this?  Is there a way to take Swift and make him valuable for your fantasy team?  Let’s go over a couple of strategies and see if we can figure out if they’ll work for Stro:

Option No. 1 - Pick up Swift immediately, and play him as long as the guy he’s replacing is out.

This is a pretty common strategy being used all the time - right now, for example, Beno Udrih is creating a ton of value while Mike Bibby is out, and Hilton Armstrong already got picked up in our league once Tyson Chandler went down.  But for Swift, it’s not particularly effective.  If you’ll notice from the list of games above, you might notice that all the guys he was filling in for missed significant time.  Last year, Gasol missed the first six weeks of the year, but in that time Swift had only one 20-point effort and only topped 7 boards twice.  Same sort of thing happened when Yao Ming missed 25 games in 05-06.  Not only that, but in the case of last year, the VERY NEXT game following his breakout, he put up just 3 points in 16 minutes.  So, that’s no good.

Option No. 2 - Keep Swift on your bench, wait for him to heat up, and play him right before he breaks out.

At first, this sounds impossible.  And it probably is.  But if you temper your expectations, it’s not totally ridiculous.  If you’re hoping to start Swift on a breakout game, I’ve got bad news for ya.  But if you’re just hoping to get some OK minutes out of a Center, well, this might not be a bad strategy.  While Swift’s big games come around just once or twice a year, he does put together strings of failry decent games.  Look at last March, for example, where he put up 15 and 13 with 3 steals in 4 blocks.  If you started him after that, you would have had three games with averages of 10 points, 4.6 boards and 2 blocks with nice percentages.  Not setting the world on fire, but I’ve seen Centers starting for fantasy teams late in the year with worse lines than that.  Of course, the next game after this mini-run he put up goose eggs.  The issue here is that it’s ridicuulous to hold onto a guy all year just for one of these little bursts, so I don’t think this strategy works either.

Option No. 3 - Grab him and trade him.
Maybe if you’re in a league with a lot of newbies this will work, but we’re going to assume here that you don’t want to get into any fights with your leaguemates.

Option No. 4 - Low Investment, Low Expectations, Quick Start, Quick Hook.
This is probably the best option and it’s not even that great of one.  Listen, we all know that Stro is impossible to manage.  But there is one strategy that I think could work, and it’s got 4 keys to it:

- Low Investment - Don’t drop anything of value to get him.
- Low Expectations - Only start him if you’ve got games to make up at Center or possibly Utility.
- Quick Start - Don’t wait around with him on your bench, he won’t do anything consistently so don’t wait for that.
- Quick Hook - Drop him at the first sign of trouble.

That’s it.  And, I guess, get lucky.  Because that’s the only way it’s really going to work.

DM: We were going to take a stab at discussing the Knicks situation today, but with the details changing every minute we figured that what we came up with might be immediately irrelevant. So how about taking a look at one of the teams that can give the Knicks a run for suckiness, at least on the court: the Seattle Sonics. The team was 0-8 until last night, although only two of those losses have been blowouts, so it’s not like they are playing particularly awful. But still, 0-8 is 0-8. A crappy team playing in the Northwest means that they will be way off most fantasy players’ radar, so there might be some hidden value to be found in there. Let’s start with the point guard situation, which is a total mess. Earl Watson was the starter, but was wholly ineffective, so then Luke Ridnour got the call after being unheard of for the first few games, but he’s been awful and now he’s hurt. Delonte West hasn’t started any games but has had the most consistent PT, but hasn’t done much with it. Is the situation going to be this messy all year or will one of them be able to take the job and run with it?

BV: I think the real question is, does it even matter? Each one of the guys you mentioned has struggled to have any real serious fantasy value unless they see over thirty minutes, and even then, it’s borderline. Ridnour peaked about three years ago, and even then he was only PG2 material. Watson’s main role has been to take away value from other players and put up just enough assists that he bounces on and off the waiver wire all year long. If I had to pick one guy to have value, it would be Delonte West, if only because he can occasionally slide over to the 2 spot. The problem is, there’s not much room there either, particularly if Kevin Durant continues to play in the backcourt. But West is also a guy with sneaky value - he was 87 on the APR last year, and he does a little bit of everything. But that was in 32mpg. What is he going to be able to do with only 25 or so … if he even gets that?

DM: Well, people are always on the lookout for an extra PG and all three players have proven that given the opportunity they can be worthy of starting in a 12-team league. I agree that West has the most upside given his well-rounded game and the fact that the new regime in Seattle brought him in, whereas that isn’t the case with Ridnour and Watson. I also get the feeling that West just might not be someone they are comfortable with as a starting PG. It’s still a situation to keep an eye on, but don’t expect any resolution soon. Have you noticed what Jeff Green’s been doing the past few games? He’s getting just over 25 mpg and has averaged 16 and 6.3 with a few steals and blocks. He’s also getting to the line pretty regularly and is shooting 48% on the very young season so far. It doesn’t seem like he will be hitting any 3s this year but he has those long arms that could help him rack up some steals and blocks. Think he’ll be able to crack the starting lineup at any point this season? Damien Wilkins has been playing some decent ball, but he’s still Damien Wilkins.

BV: Oh, if one thing’s for sure, it’s that Damien Wilkins is not going to take anyone’s job away from them. After all, like you said, this team is 0-8 so it’s not like they’re going to keep playing Wilkins because he’s helping them win. He’s seen his minutes slowly start to drop already, and then on Tuesday he fell to just 17 minutes. He’ll land on the waiver wires over the next few weeks and might make an emergence once or twice but I can’t imagine he’s a big part of their puzzle. Green, on the other hand, is the future. He was essentially the big prize that they got in return for Ray Allen, so they obviously expect big things. The only question is why they’re being so cautious with him, despite the fact that he’s 2 years older than Durant who’s being given all the minutes he can handle. But yes, absolutely, he is worth owning right now. Let me give you a little Player A / Player B:

Player A: 6-9, 235 lbs, 10.6/4.8/0.4 with 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, in 21 mpg
Player B: 6-7, 228 lbs, 10.2/6.5/1.4 with 0.8 steals, 1.0 blocks, in 24 mpg

Both players played mostly the 3 in college, with even a little 2 sprinkled in, and came out after their junior years, but projected as combo forwards in the pros. Player A is obviously Green. Can you guess who player B is? Hint: He’s now very, very good.

DM: Sorry, I don’t really see Green as the next Shawn Marion. And the Scottie Pippen comparisons are pretty tough to live up to as well. But I agree that instead of wasting time on some of those PGs we were talking about before, you should just pick up Green and stash him away. Come January or February, you’ll be happy about that. And what about Durant? Remember how I said I wouldn’t be touching him this year? I feel pretty good about that call right now. Sure, he’s scoring, but 38% on 20 shots per game is brutal, especially in roto leagues. The 3s and sheer number of minutes are definitely helping his value, but I said Richard Hamilton would end up the more valuable fantasy player this year and I’ll stand by that. What about in the middle? Think Robert Swift can have some second half value? I really like his ability to get blocks, but he’s clearly not even close to being all the way back from his knee surgery yet. I think the Sonics like him, but I think that his best case scenario at this point might be the next Joel Przybilla.

BV: I don’t think you’d even have to wait until January for Green to start paying benefits. We’ll see. But the middle…ugh. You think the PG situation is a disaster on this team? We haven’t even gotten to the worst part! Not only are all these guys - Swift, Collison, Petro, Thomas - all guys that need 30+ minutes to even be a little valuable, but there are more of them competing for minutes than there are at PG. I’m not including Chris Wilcox on this list - he’s a fine C3 and he’ll get his 30 mpg - but all of the rest of them are too risky to own. Robert Swift definitely has the highest upside, but he’s in and out of the lineup so often that you can’t even justify putting him on your bench. Nick Collison is actually starting in our league right now, but he maxes out as a utility guy at best, and I think I would leave him on the waiver wire unless I’m totally desperate for a C. Then there’s Petro, who’s hardly seeing any time, but they just picked up the option on his contract. I would probably rank them Collison, Swift (for upside), Thomas, Petro … but would you be willing to own any of these guys?

DM: Collison’s playing some fine ball right now, mid-70s on most raters, mainly because he’s getting an inordinate amount of steals. But he’s one of those guys who will be on and off the free agent list all year as he goes in and out of the lineup. He’s solid NBA rotation guy but not much more. He has some good games, you pick him up and start him, then he gets two fouls in three minutes (he does this a lot) and has a crappy game. He’s kind of like the white Eddy Curry in his perpetual waiver wireness. And no, I wouldn’t be willing to bet on any of those guys. And we haven’t talked about your favorite preseason sleeper Wally Szczerbiak. Looks like except for that one game he hasn’t really woken up yet, huh? It will be interesting to see what happens when some injuries start to hit this team. Right now it’s really messy, but they still have the ability to score lots of points so there could be value in there somewhere.

BV: Yes, I was hoping not to bring up Wally World, thank you very much. But he did have that one awesome game. I’m not ready to count him totally out just yet, but it looks like it’ll take an injury or a change of attitude from the organization in order for that to happen. The ability is certainly there, as we saw from his one 30+ point explosion, but the minutes just aren’t. I guess I figured he would be getting Damien Wilkins’ minutes…and he still might.

Our former hero and new arch nemesis John Hollinger did a column yesterday on early surprises and disappointments. We all know that buy low/sell high works better in theory and in leagues with lots of rookies, and that in more serious leagues you have to proceed with more nuance. That’s why we’ve always liked the “buy fake high” strategy of pouncing on a player who some owners might think is a sell high candidate, but is really a player who should stay at that level the rest of the season. So today here are some guys mentioned in Hollinger’s column, and some advice on whether to actually sell high or buy fake high.

Kevin Martin – Buy Fake High
Coming into the season there were likely plenty of folks who were skeptical about Martin repeating his success of 06-07. That number is rapidly dwindling. The owner in your league who spent a likely fourth round pick on Martin might realize he’s the real deal, but there’s a decent chance that Martin maintains his top 20 status right now, especially if he stays healthy throughout the season. Unlike bit players who get big contracts and sometimes suffer a down season, Martin is a franchise player, so everything the team does will be built around him. His skills are for real and I see a few guys drafted ahead of him in my league – Caron Butler, Michael Redd, Joe Johnson, for example – that I’d deal for Martin.

Richard Jefferson – Buy Fake High
Going into my draft this year there was only one player that I was positive would be on my team at the end of that night, and that was Jefferson. He was injured and ineffective last year, so much that even on the APR he was out of the top 100, so I knew he’d slip plenty. I grabbed him in the 8^th round expecting solid 4^th/5^th round value, certainly not the late-first round value he’s provided so far. If you’ve seen him play – and I’ve stomached a few Nets games to watch him (you’d think that with Kidd and Carter the Nets would be more fun to watch, but they are just the worst) – you know that he’s slashing with authority and playing like the guy who finished in the top 35 back in 05-06.

Jason Terry – Sell High
Once again, Terry was a draft day steal. He always lasts two rounds longer than he should, and with the news that he would be coming off the bench he probably slipped even more. So what does he do? Comes out on fire and begins the season as a top 10 player. The only reason I’d advise selling high on Terry is because he’s thrived so much in his bench role that he’s extremely unlikely to regain his starting role any time soon. He’s only averaging two fewer minutes per game compared to last year, but there’s simply no way he can maintain his current efficiency, so if you can get someone to give you a solid 3^rd/4^th rounder for him, it’s a good deal to make.

Marvin Williams – Sell High
It’s nice to see Williams playing well, but I’m still not sold on his abilities. He’s getting better shots and being more aggressive, getting to the line more than ever, but he’s shooting 56% on the young season, compared to 43% last season. That’s not going to last. He’s never shown much ability to get steals, blocks or 3s, he’s not a monster on the boards and he’s a clear #3 option on his team behind Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. So once that FG% starts to creep down to the 40s, his value will sink. Right now he’s playing around 5^th/6^th round value, but someone in your league might think this is a breakout season and be willing to pay a higher price. If that’s the case, I’d deal.

Chris Kaman – Sell High
You probably aren’t going to move Kaman because centers are very valuable and he’s playing out of his mind right now and with Elton Brand on the shelf for at least a few more months, he’ll have every chance to keep up this torrid pace. But he’s still Chris Kaman. I’m not saying that he can’t be a solid 15/10 guy, but 19/14 are KG numbers and he’s not KG. There is always someone desperate for a center and if you stockpiled centers, like Jeremy suggested last week, you could be in great position to snag a legit stud by dealing Kaman right now. Again, only think about a deal if you have two other strong centers, but if someone told you two weeks ago that you could get, say, Josh Howard, for Chris Kaman, you’d make that deal, right?

Sure, a lot of guys aren’t playing up to snuff just yet. And yes, most of them are on my fantasy team. Some of the issues are obvious - like injuries for Amare Stoudemire and Gilbert Arenas, or age for Shaquille O’Neal and Ben Wallace, or new climates like Jason Richardson. But some guys are really struggling and it’s hard to figure out why - so let’s take two of them and try and figure out what’s wrong.

Kirk Hinrich
Hinrich is not the only Bull to struggle, but he’s probably the biggest underperformer as well as the most confusing. He’s not just struggling with his shot, but also with his defense. He’s gotten torn apart by Cuttino Mobley, fouled out against Jason Kidd and the Nets, and while his steals numbers are good on the season, he’s logged zero in four of the six games he’s played so far. But let’s not beat around the bush - the problem for Hinrich is his shot, more than anything else. He’s putting up bricks to the tune of 15% from the arc and 31.8% overall. So what’s the problem?

Well, if you ask me, the problem is … everyone else. Listen, Kirk Hinrich is one of the most reliable players you’ll find in the NBA. No, he’s not a fantastic shooter, but he should be hitting around 36% of his threes and 41% of his shots in general. The thing is, he’s not a guy who creates his own shot, so he relies on defenders worrying about the real scorers on the floot like Luol Deng and Ben Gordon, allowing Kirk to spot up and get open shots. But when Deng and Gordon are struggling like they are now, they aren’t pulling defenders away from Hinrich, which means he’s not getting the open space he needs to hit his shots.

Need proof it’s not his shot that’s the problem? How about the 91% he’s shooting from the stripe? Or, and I know we all hate preseason stats, but look at how on-fire he was during the preseason (13-27 from the arc). Those aren’t the numbers of someone dealing with a Now, I know it’s easy to blame everyone else, but that’s really the only thing that makes sense. At least, as a Hinrich owner myself, I certainly hope so.

Gerald Wallace
Wallace, to me, is more of a concern than Hinrich, because the makeup of his team has changed pretty dramatically. Let’s look at this category by category:

Rebounds - Last year, Wallace posted 7.2 rpg, which was pretty much in line with his 05-06 numbers. BUt look at who he was on the court with! Aside from Emeka Okafor, the players seeing the most time on the floor with Wallace were Raymond Felton, Matt Carroll, Adam Morrison, Brevin Knight, and Derek Anderson. None of them grabbed more than 3 boards per game. Wallace and Okafor were pretty much the only two rebounding options on the court. (Yes, Sean May is a decent rebounder, but for the most part when he was on the floor, Wallace or Okafor was not). The point is, now Jason Richardson is on the floor, and while he’s not an incredible rebounder, he’s certainly better on the class than, say, Adam Morrison. So now, there’s a third rebounder on the floor, and that means fewer boards for Wallace. I wouldn’t expect this to improve.

Shooting - The shooting should improve, but maybe not to his previous levels if he’s going to keep shooting threes as much as he has. But even that’s not a huge deal - maybe it’s just dealing with a new presence on othe floor? Either way, this isn’t a major concern.
Blocks - OK, let’s talk about this for a minute. Some stats are just back and forth, and Gerald Wallace’s blocks are one of them. Last November, he had only 0.3 bpg. But in March, he had 1.5. Two years ago he averaged over 2 bpg, last year was just 1.0. It’s not just Wallace - blocks and steals are like this for a lot of guys who haven’t established their value over 4-5 years. The point is, you’re never going to be sure of what you’re going to get from Wallace in blocks. But to expect the over 2 bpg that he got 2 years ago may be a bit optimistic.

All in all, Wallace may struggle to justify the third round pick many folks spent on him, but he should be able to maintain solid 4th or 5th round value by the time it’s all said and done.

So you drafted your team and the season has begun. Hopefully you managed to grab your homer and sleeper picks, and it’d be nice if all of your players were performing well. However, with numerous players struggling early on this year, this is not likely the case. As a result, it is time to start making some trades, and quickly. When looking at the early-season trade, there are two trends that emerge: (1) Buy Low/Sell High and (2) Benefits From Position Scarcity. Let’s look at both situations a little bit more in-depth.

Buy Low: Right now most teams in the league have played four or five games. While it is still a small sample size, it is enough time for owners to begin worrying about whether players will bounce back from injury (i.e. Gilbert Arenas), coming off a contract year (Mo Williams) or simply struggling (Kirk Heinrich). Granted, I think it is pretty safe to assume that most of these players will have value similar to what they did last year, but right now there is the window of opportunity to go shopping and obtain these players for a good value. Granted, most intelligent fantasy managers won’t give up on their early-round picks very quickly, but if the player continues to struggle for another few weeks, then it may be much easier to pry them away.

Sell High: On the other side of the same coin, we see that there are players who are playing great basketball right now. Some are simply overachieving (Richard Jefferson, Jamaal Crawford) while others are benefiting from team injuries (Chris Kaman, John Salmons). If you are lucky enough to own some players who are currently starting on a very fast pace, you may be able to flip them for a more proven commodity. This is especially effective in the 2-for-2 player trade, as opposing managers may not immediately think you are trying to scam him with the buy-low, sell-high technique. These players, while I think will have good value this year, are still at the mercy of if their teammates return (such as Elton Brand to the Clippers) or if they fall-out of the rotation (look at Portland’s current roster flux as an example).

Injury Advantage: A third component to the buy-low, sell-high strategy has to come from dealing with injured players, as they can often be bought for much lower value than they are worth. This usefulness of this technique depends on which format you play (note that I play more H2H than Roto), but if you can afford to carry injured players on your roster, you could really end up with some great value. For example, right now I’m sure that whoever owns Mike Bibby is not looking forward to holding onto him for weeks. He’s too valuable to drop, and yet it is very hard to win without having a player for weeks on end. What I like to do is wait, once the player gets injured, for a few weeks; this achieves two things: (1) the owner becomes increasingly frustrated and (2) the player is closer to returning. I then try to sell low and obtain the player. As the season progresses there will be several of these opportunities, so watch for these chances to poach.

Benefits From Position Scarcity: Unfortunately I wasn’t able to share this advice before everyone drafted, but here is something to consider. Most leagues require you to start two centers, and yet the talent pool for centers is extremely shallow, especially once injuries around the league start to pile up. However, if you find yourself with an excess of talent at the PG or C position, you can leverage these to upgrade to better players. I cannot tell you how many times I have been in a live draft and notice a few of the teams auto-drafting. Sure enough, I try and make sure that I stock up on centers, as often managers will realize once the draft is over that they only have two players to put in the position, leaving no one to rotate in. Seeing as I have maybe 5+ center-eligible big men, I can afford to give up one or two if I get superior talent (a mid-round swing-man) in return. Granted, this might not help you right now, so try to remember it for the next time you draft. Take a look at both your roster and those of other people in the league to identify managers you could use this technique to trade with.

A Real Example: My basis for these thoughts come from a year ago, where I swindled multiple intelligent fantasy managers in my league. After the draft, one manager only had two center eligible players, and they were not good (one was Tony Battie I believe). I ended up trading the over-performing Zaza Pachulia and Larry Hughes for the under-performing Luol Deng and David West. Granted, that trade looks completely lopsided, and it was, but between being stressed with not having enough centers and seeing his players struggle and mine over-perform, he bit and took the trade. I then was able to swap Deng for an injured Josh Howard. Of course, Howard took the leap last year due to his three-point shooting, something he first demonstrated proficiency for during the 2006 playoffs. In the end, I won this league easily, by adhering to some of the techniques stressed above. You might not find deals quite like this, but using injuries, position scarcity, and over/under performing players to your advantage, you may find yourself in a very good position at the mere beginning of the season.

BV: Well, that didn’t take long.  Just three games into the season, Nate McMillian is fed up with his Portland Trail Blazers, and he’s not the only one - fantasy owners of any Blazer not named Aldridge, Roy, or Webster have been pretty disappointed as well.  But, fear not!  McMillian has already shaken things up, shoving FBB favorite Steve Blake and FBB …um…topic of discussion Channing Frye into the starting lineup.  Any time there’s a change in the starting spot at PG or C, fantasy basketball players are interested.  But wait, there’s more!  Perennial breakout candidate Travis Outlaw has slowly been getting more PT, and we’ve seen Joel Przybilla have value without starting before.  So let’s start with this, DM - After Aldridge, Roy and Webster, who’s got the most fantasy value on the Blazers?

DM: Wait, that’s a trick question, isn’t it? We could probably have this discussion every month or so and the answer will be different. But the key to winning is often finding those players ready to go on a hot streak for a month and taking advantage. Right now I’ll say it’s the all-time FBB fave, and the newest member of my fantasy team, Steve Blake. McMillian decided three games of nothing was enough from Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez, despite his nice rate numbers, has never really seemed to win over the staff in Portland. The Blazers still need all the help they can get when it comes to getting easy baskets and our boy Stevie can make that happen. He’ll get abused on the defensive end by bigger guards, but he’s a legit playmaker that can take some pressure off Roy and he’s turned out to be a pretty reliable long-range threat, checking in at 37% for his career. Maybe the benching will motivate Jack, but he’s always been a backup PG masquerading as a starter. Blake should have a chance to run with this job, and if he can play around 30 mpg, that could be enough for him to give you around 6 apg and 1.5 3pg, which makes for a fine PG3 in deep leagues.

BV: Well, I think there are two things wrong with that answer.  Number one, I don’t think Blake will get his 30 mpg.  Not only is Jack still going to see significant time at the point, but Sergio Rodriguez will still - despite his lack of winning over coaches - see maybe 5 mpg as well, and even Taurean Green could potentially see a little time.  So I think Blake is much more likely to come in around 25 mpg at best - it’s not like he’s going to be able to slide to the 2 guard at all.  Secondly, I don’t know why you think he’ll knock down 1.5 3pg.  Even last year in Denver, when he was filling the “hang around on the outside and wait for AI to give you the ball for a wide-open three,” he only connected on one per game - in 33 mpg!  He’s going to be the at-best 3rd or 4th option on the floor offensively for the Blazers, and I wouldn’t expect him to knock down any more than the 1 or so he’s maxed out at over his career.

My pick - though it’s the best of a bad bunch - is actually Przybilla, because he’s the most likely to do the most with the least amount of PT, and because he’s got the least competition for his job.  I can see the PG spot shifting around a bunch this year, but as far as bigs go, the Blazers only have three guys for the 4 and 5 - Przybilla, Frye, and Aldridge.  Unless they go small a whole lot with Outlaw or James Jones at the 4, or for some ungodly reason give Raef LaFrentz some PT, Przybilla will almost have to play 20 mpg.  That’s generally been enough for him to contribute about 7 boards and 2 blocks - and isn’t that better than the maybe 1 three and 6 assists Blake will get you?

DM: It was actually Przybilla who I dropped to pick up Blake. I like Joel, and I don’t think the Blazers can last long with a frontline of Aldridge and Channing Frye, but unless you really need blocks — and granted, that’s plenty of teams — he just doesn’t do all that much for you. Like you said, he could be good for 7 boards and 2 blocks, which is what he gave you in both 04-05 and 05-06, his two best seasons. He’s never averaged more than 26 mpg and it’s hard to see that changing, and he’s also incredibly injury prone. I know people get desperate for a second center, but I decided to hold onto Ike Diogu instead, just because he might be able to score some points and actually do some damage in the case of some injuries. (Although it might take multiple injuries for that to happen.) Przybilla makes for a good guy to keep around on your bench as a backup center, but isn’t someone you should feel tied to.

As for Frye, that rookie season with the Knicks seems like a decade ago, doesn’t it? He can’t possibly hope to compete with even most PF, let alone centers. His offensive game is almost completely based on 18-foot jumpers. I guess it just so happened that lots of those jumpers went down during his first season. He’s got youth on his side and the Blazers would surely like to see if he can give them some offense, but there seem to be lots of questions there.

BV:  I think we can agree that Frye is generally not worth your time.  If you’re not gonna rebound, and you’re not gonna block shots, you’d better hit a hell of a lot of those 18-footers, and that’s just not happening for him.  I’ll put Jack on top of Frye just because he’s got a better chance to have value down the line, I think.  He can also play the 2 guard in pinch.  So if we’ve got Przybilla and Blake at the top of our list, and Jack then Frye at the bottom, where does this leave everyone’s favorite waiver wirer, Travis Outlaw?  I’ll say … below Jack.  Above Frye.  Which is more an indictment of Frye than praise of Outlaw.  This is Outlaw’s FIFTH year in the league, believe it or not, so how much will he really improve at this point?  But he does have an ability to help in the defensive categories, so I’ll give him a little credit there.  Przybilla, Blake, Jack, Outlaw, Frye.  That’s my list.

DM: Can I talk about Martell Webster for a second? He looks like a nice little gem of a free agent pickup right now but don’t get too comfortable the prospect of him being an all-year fantasy starter. His shot is falling over the first week, but unless he can keep knocking down 2 3pg, he’s not all that special. Well, if he keeps getting 35 mpg then he should accumulate enough other stats to make him worthwhile, but if that long ball isn’t falling, it’s hard to see any reason to keep him out there that long. Still, he has youth on his side, but I’m thinking that Morris Peterson is his upside. As for Travis Outlaw, he’s always had that potential to be a fantasy asset thanks to his long arms which help him get steals and blocks, although he’s yet to get any of either so far this year. He’s got plenty of athletic ability but he just doesn’t seem like he can score. He needs to be starting and playing big minutes to put up good numbers in other categories to offset his lack of scoring. So yeah, let’s put him below Jack, who will most likely regain the starting PG job at some point. Let’s not forget, he was the #75 player in the game last year, so he’s got proven ability to be a solid, bottom of the roster fantasy type.

Transaction Reaction - Hunka Junk Edition

Man, has this first week of fantasy basketball been tough or what?  Most of us rely on this first week to pick up that one guy who somehow slipped through the cracks or the young gun who has been so impressive that it looks like he’s making the leap ahead of schedule.  Instead, everyone is playing sloppy seconds with everyone else’s failed late-round picks.  Already in our league guys like Steve Blake, Sam Cassell, and Tim Thomas have been drafted, dropped, and added.  Paul Millsap, Joel Przybilla, Charlie Villanueva … all of these guys have shown up multiple times on our transaction list.  None of them are particularly exciting.

The truth of the matter is, the reason nobody exciting is getting added is that nobody exciting is out there.  Still, you can find a few guys who might be worth a long-term investment - as in, stash ‘em on your bench and maybe, in a few weeks or even months, they might be worth your while.  None of these three guys are particularly attractive, but with the junk that’s out there, what do you have to lose?

Yi Jianlian - Perhaps the most stunning that about Yi so far is that he hasn’t been a total disaster while seeing his requisite 20 minutes per game.  He’s shown a knack for putting up points, isn’t allergic to rebounds, and even has blocked a few shots, which I’ll admit I wasn’t expecting at all.  What I was expecting was some threes, and maybe those will come.  The most important thing is, Bucks coach Larry Krystkowiak seems like he’s willing to give Yi some serious minutes when he’s on.  The trouble with Yi is that he’s going to be wildly inconsistent for much of the year.  But the fact that he’s showing some good signs this early, coupled with the fact that he’s definitely going to see consistent minutes, means that there could be a nice reward for those who wait out the struggles.

Brevin Knight - OK, OK, so the ‘upside’ isn’t exactly there.  But on your top 10 list of ‘people who won’t be on their current team in 3 months,’ isn’t Sam Cassell pretty high on that list?  If you think Dan Dickau is going to get those minutes, I’m going to respectfully disagree.  Knight is the kinda guy who you already know can have serious value if he’s getting 28, 30 minutes per game.  He’s already getting about 20.  This is a low-ceiling pick, for sure, but if you’ve got an extra roster spot and you need assists and steals, you could do much worse.

Robert Swift - Here’s what we know about the center position for the Sonics.  One, we know that Johan Petro is not the long-term answer as a starter, though he may be a nice backup.  Two, we know that Mouhamed Saer Sene is not the answer - yet - either.  And three, we know that Nick Collison, while a fantasy asset now and then, is just overmatched at center.  So where does that leave us?  With FBB favorite Robert Swift, who is going to be babied as he comes back from knee surgery.  He’s not going to see the PT to be effective right now, once he eases his way back into game shape, it’s reasonable to think that he’ll work his way into some serious minutes.  Yeah it’s not glamorous … but right now, who is?

We all have players we like and players we don’t like. We’ve joked here in the past about the Eddie Griffin Memorial Never Draft List (now, sadly, aptly named), and while the following players weren’t necessarily on that list for this year, they were certainly players I wouldn’t go out of my way to pick up. But sometimes a new season means a new player, and the following guys are doing their best in the very early goings to change my opinion of them.

Mike Dunleavy
What the hell is going on in Indiana? A 3-0 start with two games of at least 119 points? It might be too good to last, but you can’t ignore the fact that Mike Dunleavy has looked fantastic over the first week of the season. You can pick your reason – no more weight of expectation from being a high draft pick with the Warriors, a friendly system put in place by Jim O’Brien, no other go-to scorers on the team – but Dunleavy’s getting it done in a variety of ways. He’s attempted exactly 17 shots in each of the first three contests and has made it to the line 17 times. He’s not just settling for long jumpers, but is using his quickness to take defenders to the basket. He’s also grabbed 9 boards per game and always throws in a few assists. For the first time in his career Dunleavy has a defined role and he seems to be in his comfort zone. This is one late-round flyer that could very well end up providing solid mid-round value.

Brendan Haywood
It’s been an ugly start to the season here in Washington. It’s been so bad that there’s really no debate that Brendan Haywood has been the best player for the Wizards. Nevermind the fact that it’s not one of the Formerly Big Three, but Haywood has been a perpetual tease throughout his whole career. Here’s what you could count on him for: fighting with Eddie Jordan, fighting with Etan Thomas, taking 9-10 seconds to make a post move after catching the ball, missing free throws, calling him Brenda, making “when will Brendan regain full use of his hands?” jokes, etc. But with Etan out for this season with a heart ailment, Haywood finally has the center position to himself. Jordan still doesn’t completely trust him, as he’s yet to top 32 minutes even though he’s clearly the team’s top offensive and rebounding weapon. But that’s been enough time to put up some eye-popping numbers, particularly on the offensive glass. Haywood has grabbed 41 boards through three games with a whopping 25 of them on the offensive end. Lord knows he’s had plenty of opportunities as Gilbert, Caron and Antawn have laid the foundations for many a house with their bricks so far, but Haywood’s rebounding strength is his long arms, not positioning, which is why he’s more effective on the offensive glass. You can’t argue with a line of 10 and 13.7 with 3 blocks, and with the Wizards roster unlikely to change at all, it’s really not out of the question that Haywood can maintain something around 10/10 with 1.8 blocks.

Hedo Turkoglu
The common thinking was that the Rashard Lewis signing would render Turkoglu obsolete for fantasy purposes. But when Tony Battie went down with a season-ending injury, the Magic decided to go with a starting frontcourt of smooth-shooting big men in Lewis and Turkoglu and it seems to be working out for everyone involved. Lewis is fitting right in and Turkoglu looks more comfortable than he’s ever looked in the NBA. I was there in person to see him dismantle the Wizards – a team he’s owned over the past few seasons, and yes, that’s very depressing – and this wasn’t just a case of him hitting open jumpers. When rookie Dominic McGuire was matched up on him, Turkoglu abused him by taking him to the basket off the dribble. He was finding the open man instead of forcing bad shots and ended up with 8 assists. And his attempts from long range were all wide open – again, thank you Wizards – but he’s connected on 53% so far and has looked good doing it. Stan Van Gundy is using a short bench, as neither J.J. Redick or Trevor Ariza seem any real threat to steal playing time from Turkoglu in the near future.

Tracy McGrady
If I can just vent for a second, here’s why the #11 pick in the draft was a terrible place to be this year. The first 10 picks go as planned – LeBron, Garnett, Marion, Kobe, Dirk, Nash, Arenas, Amare, Yao, Pau. So there I am at 11 without any real sure thing. I went with Chris Paul, who I love this year, so not that bad. It got bad at the third round, though. After Deron Williams and Baron Davis start off the round, there are 9 picks until it gets to me. I spot 8 players that I’d love to grab: Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Michael Redd, Vince Carter, Chauncey Billups, Boozer, T-Mac, Gerald Wallace. And, of course, those are the 8 to get drafted, leaving me to choose from the likes of Caron Butler, Emeka Okafor, Kevin Martin, Jason Richardson, Kirk Hinrich, etc. A clear step down. My point – it’s not really even a point – is that while I’ve been very down on McGrady the past few years, I still would have loved to have grabbed him at the end of the third round. Games like Saturday remind me why I was down on him in the first place – 8-for-23 outings really do so much damage – but those first two games saw him being aggressive, getting to the line and asserting himself as a dominant offensive force. It is worth noting that he has just a single steal and no blocks, but if he keeps playing 38-40 minutes per night he’ll contribute enough in those categories.

Yeah, yeah, I know.  We’ve completely fallen apart here at FBB, but we’ve got plenty of excuses - in the month of October alone, one of us got married, one of us bought a house, and one of us was in London for a week (scouting his fantasy rugby team).  Needless to say, we haven’t had time enough to devote to FBB.  Real life is just getting in the way.

That said, we’re gonna try to be back soon - either next week or the week after, and we’re bringing some reinforcements.  Longtime FBB commenter Jeremy, who has been holding down the fort in the comments section, is coming aboard as a writer - he’ll be doing one column a week.  Please haze him as you see fit.

Now, onto some more important stuff.  Here’s who we’re interested in right now:

Theo Ratliff - Centers are always a scarcity, duh.  I was going to pick up Desagana Diop this morning but he just got grabbed.  Keep an eye on Ratliff tonight and if he plays more than 30 mpg go get him.  Cheap boards and blocks are nothing to sneeze at.  Speaking of which…

Joel Przybilla - Is Channing Frye even on this team?  DM picked up Przybilla yesterday and I’m not sure he didn’t just get a steal.  He’s got a great bpm rate and if he regularly sees as many minutes as he did the other night, he could be a very servicable C2.

Sebastian Telfar - Absolutely not.  Just … no.  If you’ve already picked him up, my apologies, but he can’t shoot worth a lick and doesn’t pass, which is an issue for a PG.  I don’t care how long Foye is out, Telfair shouldn’t have value.  But you know who will?

Rashad McCants - Foye is a combo guard so you know he was going to play some 2 guard, but now that he’s out McCants has a better shot at seeing something like 35 mpg for the forseeable future.  If he’s on your waiver wire, don’t let him stay there.

Also, just for the record, here’s how my draft went:

1. (8) Amare Stoudemire C
2. (17) Allen Iverson PG,SG
3. (32) Chauncey Billups PG
4. (41) Kirk Hinrich PG,SG
5. (56) Rasheed Wallace PF
6. (65) Zach Randolph PF
7. (80) Ricky Davis SG,SF
8. (89) Brad Miller C
9. (104) Nenad Krstic PF,C
10. (113) Jason Williams PG
11. (128) Wally Szczerbiak SG,SF
12. (137) Al Horford PF,C
13. (152) Rashad McCants PG,SG

This was an almost exactly by-the-books draft, hardly anyone slipped.  Billups may have been the only top-30 guy to fall at all, so I couldn’t pass him up even though I already had AI and I had pegged Hinrich as the guy I wanted at 41.  I desperately need one out of Miller, Krstic, and Horford to perform well, and even if that happens I will still be desperate for rebounds.  Still, I should dominate the PG categories and I got some nice sleepers late.  Wally World may be off my team by tomorrow, but that’s OK.

Anyhow, sorry for the lack of action around here, but we’re getting it going.

OK, so not every late pick we recommend is going to be exciting.  But sometimes you need roster fillers who you can plug into those utility slots.  None of these guys have top-50 potential or anything but all of them could top out in the 70’s or 80’s if a few things go right and if you can get them in the 10th, 11th, 12th rounds, then you might have gotten some sweet value:

Wally Szczerbiak
Wally World was sort of an afterthought in the Sonics offseason what with Rashard Lewis leaving, Ray Allen getting traded, and Kevin Durant and Jeff Green showing up.  But it wouldn’t surprise me to see him lead the Sonics in scoring this year.  People are always hesitant to draft him because of the injuries, but once you’re drafting your utility and bench guys, what are you really risking?  He’s talking the way that fantasy players like, too:  “I’ve had a couple of tough years with surgeries the last two seasons,” he said at Sonics Media Day. “That’s something I’ve got to do - just stay healthy. When I stay healthy, I can be a pretty good player in this league. That’s my focus this year.”  He’s still got great percentages for a long bomber, and he can contribute a bit in boards, but the points and 3’s are where Wally will leave his mark.  He may have fallen a bit too much on people’s draft boards, and should definitely be drafted.

Steve Francis
Here’s what we know about Stevie Franchise: 1. When he’s unhappy, he’s a bad player.  2. When he’s happy, he’s a good player.  3. He’s happy in Houston.  4. One time I saw him outside the Whole Foods in Silver Spring, MD.  The minutes are certainly going to be an issue but for the first time in his career he had a legitimate chance to decide where he wanted to play and he went right back to Houston.  He’s only 31, and while he was hideous in New York last year, the year before, in Orlando, he put up 16/4/5 with a steal.  It’s tough to know how much of a step he’s lost but he’s really only a year and a half away from being a top-50 player, so he’s a decent risk to take if you can get him late.

Troy Murphy
Now, I owned Murphy for much of last year so I know all about how that went: badly.  But he was so dependable over the previous few seasons that it’s not at all unreasonable to think he’ll come back this year and be a 14-10 guy with a three a game.  He’s got a new coach, which should help, and he’s had all summer to get used to his new teammates.  Plus, Jermaine O’Neal is always an injury risk and that could give Murphy’s value a bump.  This actually isn’t at all a question of talent or ability - at 27, Murphy is in his prime - it’s just a matter of minutes.  It’s also worth noting that while his other numbers dipped in conjunction with his loss of PT last year, his 3PT numbers stayed the same, so he’s showing a bit more of a willingness to fire it up from the arc.  It looks like he’ll still qualify at C as well, which will help his value a bit.  I like Murphy as a bounce-back candidate this year.

Mark Blount
Seriously, who else is going to play center for the Timberwolves? He’ll still see plenty of minutes, might play a bigger role in an offense where he and Ricky Davis are the only vets, and the guy has played in 80+ games in each of the last five seasons.  He’s not going to blow anyone away but he qualifies at C and was at 95 on the TPR last year (129 on the APR) and he’s a fine 3rd center, despite all of his faults.  Don’t be embarrassed to take him in the last few rounds of the draft.